BEST LINES: Pinnacle +119 Bet365 +115 SportsInteraction +125 5DIMES +115

Posted at 10:45 AM EST.

10:05 PM EST. What a great spot for the Royals to be taking back an inflated price against an Angels’ squad that just beat the then red-hot Yanks the past two nights. A lot of folks lost money on New York at the Big A and now a lot of those same folks will switch gears and back the Angels against the perceived weak Royals. The Angels won in extra innings on Tuesday and then fell behind 4-0 in the first inning last night before rallying to win it, 7-5. So, aside from the emotional letdown after back-to-back dramatic wins against the Yanks, Ricky Nolasco is not worthy of being priced in this range on his best day. 

When Ricky Nolasco throws a good game, it’s a complete fluke. Nolasco's 18 walks issued in 62 innings is also a fluke, as his 58% first pitch strike rate and 39% ball% will catch up with him soon. As his walks increase, his command will erode, returning him or keeping him at his end-rotation profile. Nolasco has two wins in 13 starts so his chances of losing are far greater than his chances of winning. His 1.37 WHIP, 4.96 xERA, 1.46 WHIP and 5.11 xERA over his last five starts confirm all of the above. Nolasco is well below average. 

Part of our procedure in getting ready for the season is to make a few notes on every potential starter in the league. We can then refer back to those notes once the season starts and perhaps find some hidden value in there somewhere when a rather unknown pitcher shows up. Such is the case with Matt Strahm. Our notes on Strahm were as follows: Went 2-2, 1.23 ERA in 22 IP for KC. Seemed to have fixed control issues prior to 7/31 callup, though first-pitch strike rate calls that into question. Things did get a bit loose late (7 BB in last 7.1 IP), but MLB 12.3 K’s/9, strong swing and miss rate, futility of RHB hint at significant upside, especially given reports he'll compete for starting role in spring. Keep an eye on him. 

We’re going to do exactly that. Strahm has not started this year but has appeared in 20 games and has 26 K’s in 22 innings. His control issues have not disappeared so that risk is still there but he’s a pitcher that has a live arm and his stuff can get filthy. Strahm has more upside as a starter than reliever and it’s a role he’s more accustomed to anyway. Lastly, after a horrible start to the year, the Royals have won 13 of their past 20 games to get right back into the race. They are one of the hotter teams in the league right now but they’re not priced like it. Invest.

Open an account today at Pinnacle Sports and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks.