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Posted at 10:30 AM EST.

2:20 PM EST. Colorado starters are going out there every five days and giving their team a chance to win. Like hitting, strong pitching is contagious and it’s been a case of next man up for the Rocks. Antonio Senzatela is 8-2 with a 3.46 ERA and everything for him is trending in the right direction from his K-rate to his swinging strike rate and to his groundball rate. While the underlying stats say that this rookie is in for regression, we’re not going to worry about that here. The Rockies are very simply playing too well to ignore at prices like this.

Hopefully, we’re not too late to this party after missed opportunities to cash in on the Rockies in the first two games of this series. Colorado has outscored Chicago 14-4 in the first two games of this series. Colorado is now 41-23 while the Cubs are 30-31 but every game in this series has been priced like it’s the Cubs with the 41-23 record. This market has not embraced the Cubbies struggles or the Rockies dominance. Only one team in baseball, the San Diego Padres, has a worse team batting average (.227) than the Cubs (.232) mark. Chicago’s win % is in the same range as the Angels, Reds, Mariners and Rays.

Jake Arrieta has been a huge disappointment so far thanks to a combination of a surge in fly balls and some tough luck. It doesn't appear as though the pinpoint control from 2014 and 2015 is going to return anytime soon, and the velocity dip is a little troubling. Arrieta is still generating whiffs at his typical level and his recent track record suggests he'll eventually start keeping the ball down but he’s not dominating and has six wins in 12 tries with a 4.70 ERA and a 4.01 xERA. There are workload concerns also given the 426 innings he threw over the past two seasons and prior arm issues. For now, we’ll call him a cautionary ace with too much risk at this price. 

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