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Posted at 11:00 AM EST. 

3:35 PM EST. Ricky Nolasco has a 5.07 ERA after 11 starts. What’s more disturbing is that he has a strand rate of 80%. If his strand rate was normal, he’d be counting heads on the bus from the hotel to the park instead of taking the mound every fifth day. The Angels have lost Nolasco’s last six starts in which he’s been tagged for 46 hits in 31 innings. That hit percentage is the result of always being around the plate with pedestrian stuff. His 35%/45% groundball/fly-ball split isn’t encouraging either.

It’s very tempting to play the Twins here at -111 just in case they win by only one run but if we thought it was going to be that close, we would not bet it. Of course nobody knows for sure but the Twinkies -111 is a bargain and so is spotting the extra half run here.

Jose Berrioshad a big debut month after being recalled from Triple-A. He had a great 2.70 ERA and 0.79 WHIP over his four starts, and those marks were backed by strong skills: 9.1 K’s/9, 2.7 BB’s/9 and a 46% groundball rate. His command sub-indicators were rock solid too: 10.5% swing and miss rate, 62% first-pitch strike rate and 65% overall strikes. Berrios is one of baseball’s best pitching prospects and has started to show it at the big league level. He labored through an ugly 58.3 IP last year with virtually nothing going right (the 8.02 ERA and 1.87 WHIP tell the story, as the skills weren’t there and the poor results followed) across 14 starts. He’s been electric in four starts and looks nothing like the young arm who struggled so much last year. All three pitches are markedly better, but the fastball is the key, of course. The high fastball has been particularly important and led to a .259 OPS and 35% K’s on the pitch. High fastballs have ended 25% of his plate appearances this year. The curveball has been straight filth. He’s gotten 12 strikeouts with it in 23 plate appearances. He has hung a couple for homers in his outing at Baltimore but it’s a true out pitch right now and the Angels aren’t the Orioles. Play the Twinkies straight up or -1½ but play it because it’s a true pitching mismatch at a bargain price. 

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