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Posted at 11:45 AM EST. 

7:10 PM EST. We’re not going to concern ourselves much with Philadelphia’s starter here because this has nothing to do with him. This is strictly a fade against Ty Blach but it is worth noting that Jerad Eickhoff is coming on with a BB/K split of 8/23 over his past 27 frames to go along with a xERA of 3.60 over that same span.

AT&T Park is unique. The dimensions are unique and so are the little intricacies that the Giants have mastered over the years. It is for that reason that the Giants manage to stay in games at home and win a high percentage of them. When they had the talent, San Fran could also play on the road but this year the talent level is worse and those key players from years gone by are past their prime. Get the Giants on the road and nothing is the same. With perhaps the worst bullpen in the majors, the Giants nine road wins in 28 tries is atrocious but because the Phillies are in such horrible form offensively, we get a good opportunity to get behind the host before their stock inevitably goes up.

The slumping Phillies enter this series opener with a 17-34 record, worst in baseball. The team’s problems are manyfold, but two players whose struggles stick out are Maikel Franco and Odubel Herrera. Franco, who hit 25 home runs last season, has mustered a paltry .216 batting average with six home runs and 28 RBI’s in 194 plate appearances this season. Herrera, the Phillies’ lone representative in the All-Star Game last year, hit .286 with 42 extra-base hits and 25 stolen bases last season. So far this season, he’s batting a measly .218 with 15 extra-base hits and four stolen bases in 206 PA. However, just like with pitchers, batters have good and bad luck too and this duo has had horrible luck, thus a correction to the good is on the way. The data doesn’t exactly paint a grim picture of Franco or Herrara. Per FanGraphs, Franco is hitting a few more line drives than he did last year and is making harder contact overall while the same goes for Herrara to a lesser degree. Those hard hit balls are going to drop in or hit some gaps real soon. When Franco’s luck changes, so, too will everything else for the Phillies offense and we’ll gamble that the offense breaks out here against Ty Blach.

Blach is 3-2 with a respectable 3.83 ERA which is made up of three relief appearances and five starts. In his last three starts in which Blach went at least seven full innings in each, he has an ERA of 2.49. On paper, it’s pretty but under the hood it doesn’t get much uglier so things are going to blow up on this stiff big time. Blach has decent control and a strong groundball rate of 50% but that’s not enough. You see, he has the worst K-rate in MLB among qualified starters with 19 K’s in 49 innings. His K-rate and 4% swing and miss rate are highly discouraging and his minor league numbers don't offer much hope either. Blach is at the mercy of batting average on balls in play (BABIP) and that is where his home park plays a big role in his success. Ty Blach’s BABIP is a ridiculous and unsustainable .152. What his surface stats do not reveal is that on the road, this hittable pitcher has an ERA of 9.45 after giving up 21 hits and 16 earned runs in 13.1 innings of work. This park is not going to help him out whatsoever.

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