BEST LINES: Pinnacle +108 Bet365 +100 SportsInteraction +105 5DIMES +100

Posted at 11:45 AM EST. 

10:10 PM EST. Clayton Richard is putting up some very respectable numbers. He has a BB/K split of 19/50 in 69 innings. Over his last five starts, Richard’s BB/K split is 8/27 over 33 innings. His groundball rate is elite at 58%. Richard has battled his way back from 2013 left shoulder surgery and 2014 thoracic outlet syndrome surgery. The 33-year-old has emerged from those setbacks with a new throwing motion—a lower arm slot that is essentially side-arm—that has made his sinker even more effective. His sinker-laden pitch mix has led to an exceptionally high groundball rate and it’s worth noting that in 2016 no qualified starting pitcher had a groundball rate higher than 60% and only two relievers induced grounders at a loftier rate. Clayton Richard is a strong play when being offered a price anywhere and even more so at home. Furthermore, few are paying attention to the Padres but we are. They have won four in a row and seven of 10 and their last four wins came against the Nationals once and the Cubs three times.

German Marquez is 4-2 with an ERA of 3.76 after seven starts. Pitching for the Rockies or half your games at Coors, an ERA like that attracts attention. The Rockies are a first place club that is also attracting a lot of attention these days but we’re in the value business and to us, this one sticks out. You see, Seattle was a -140 favorite over Colorado yesterday in Seattle. Yovani Gallardo was starting for the M’s. How can the Rockies be +130 yesterday against that stiff and subsequently be favored here against a superior pitcher and a team that is playing so well? It’s all data based information that the oddsmakers use as part of their criteria for setting lines. The Padres are a team few bet on and that sets up this great opportunity, which brings us back to Marquez.

While Marquez has a very good surface ERA, the underlying numbers say not so good. His swing and miss rate is down to 8% so he’ll be sliding back toward his below average strikeout rate (5.6 K’s/9) from the minors. His first-pitch strike rate is also down, which puts his control and command at risk for further degradation. Marquez has an unsustainable 85% strand rate over his last five starts. At 22 years of age and with only 41 innings of Triple-A experience, some rough outings lie ahead for him and now that there’s plenty of film available to study, those rough outings are going to come sooner than later. Wrong side favored.

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