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Posted at 10:30 AM EST. 

1:10 PM EST. Zach Wheeler’s return from TJS last year was pushed back multiple times by elbow pain and he threw only one inning of rehab work. He was finally shut down and didn’t resume work until pitchers and catchers reported for spring training. Nine games in and there are some things to like about Zach Wheeler but not enough to warrant being this price against the feisty Brew Crew with Chase Anderson starting.

Both Wheeler’s control and first-pitch strike rate have been a little shaky throughout his career and this year's marks are right in line with his career norms. He's missing bats at about the same rate as he did prior to his injury and should continue to rack up his fair share of strikeouts. He's still doing a fine job of keeping the ball on the ground as well. He's been a little unlucky with his home run per fly ball rate, so homers aren't likely to be an ongoing issue for him. Wheeler was a true wild card heading into the season after having missed the last two seasons but his skills look nearly identical to those from 2014, prior to the injury. The problem is that Wheeler gets himself into trouble with walks and is therefore prone to three-run innings. With 12 walks in his past 23 innings, a WHIP of 1.40 and an xERA of 4.22 over his last five starts, there is too much risk in this starter and team for our liking.

Chase Anderson’s numbers are almost identical to Zach Wheeler’s. Anderson’s ERA/xERA split is 3.72/4.02 while Wheeler’s is 3.83/4.02. Anderson has a BB/K split of 22/52 over 56 frames while Wheeler’s split is 22/45 over 49 frames. Anderson’s numbers and metrics just keep getting progressively betting and as a result, he’s being sold short here. Anderson’s swing and miss rate was 18% last game and is now 12% on the year. He has 28 K’s over his past 26 innings and in four of his 10 starts this year Anderson has allowed one run or less. The Brewers are playing some great baseball and it’s been consistent all season, which also adds to their appeal here.

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