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Posted at 11:00 AM EST.

2:20 PM EST. Eddie Butler has a 1-0 record after two starts with a 2.00 ERA. The Cubbies picked up Eddie Butler as an additional depth option behind LHPs Mike Montgomery and Brett Anderson in an expected competition for Chicago‘s fifth starter spot. However, after Anderson was injured, Butler moved into the rotation but his history and skills say not to trust him for a second. Butler has struggled with command issues and showed a failure to limit hard contact, with high line-drive and HR rates, in multiple previous MLB trials. He has a BB/K split of 8/8 in nine frames. His career xERA is 5.44 and this year in a very small sample size it is 5.22. The books are dangling this proverbial carrot on the Cubbies at home at a low price and we’re pretty sure many are going to take the bait. Try not to.

It’s tough not to wince when looking at Jeff Samardzija’s 4.57 ERA through his first 61 innings of 2017. A strong September 2016 (2.95 ERA, 10.3 K’s/9) gave a glimmer of hope for a rebound to pre-2015 performance, but the results, at least in terms of ERA, haven’t been there thus far. However, we’re paying great attention to the underlying metrics because they are screaming out at us. A healthy dose of misfortune has obscured Samardzija’s tremendous skills. Samardzija continues to do a fine job of limiting free passes with just 10 issued in 61 innings. He is racking up strikeouts like never before thanks largely to two pitches generating a swing and miss rate of 18% or better (slider: 19% splitter: 18%). He has also utilized those two offerings more than he did in 2016 (slider usage: +5 to 21%; splitter usage: +6% to 14%). The extremely wide disparity between ERA and xERA highlights just how snakebitten he has been with regard to strand %, hr/f and, to a lesser extent, hit %. Samardzija has made some pretty drastic changes in his pitch mix compared to 2016. Along with the aforementioned alterations, the 32-year-old has increased his sinker usage while scaling back his four-seamer and cutter (sinker: up 9% to 35%; four-seam: down 8% to 15%; cutter: down 13% to 5%). This helps to explain the sudden strikeout boost that has seen him whiff 71 batters in 61 frames this year. The ERA isn't pretty right now, but Samardzija’s 2.99 xERA is in Clayton Kershaw territory and that makes him one if the best buy-low candidates in the game. We’ll put that to the test here, as this is a major pitching mismatch in the Giants favor.

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