BEST LINES: Pinnacle -1½ +163 Bet365 -1½ +150 SportsInteraction -1½ +155 5DIMES -1½ +160

Posted at 9:40 AM EST.

4:10 PM EST. The line here (Cincinnati -125) jumped out at us right away because Colorado’s starter, Antonio Senzatela comes in with a 3.31 ERA after starting five times at Coors Field in his first eight starts while Tim Adleman comes in with a 5.27 ERA after five starts. Furthermore, the Rocks own the MLB’s best road record while the Reds own a seven-game losing streak. Based on all of the above, it’s hard not to buy up the Rocks but a deep look under the hood says otherwise. Also, yesterday we pointed out that the Rocks were in a unfavorable situational spot with a lengthy rain delay on Wednesday, followed by a doubleheader on Thursday and traveling from Minnesota to Cincinnati prior to the start of this game. Fatigue did not set in yesterday but there’s a great chance of it setting in for this matinee affair. We’re not counting on that though.

We’re counting on Senzatela to blow up because there are lots of reasons not to buy into Senzatela's early ERA success. He's been helped a lot by hit% and strand% luck and even a 10% hr/f is slightly below normal. A 54% first-pitch strike rate is not typically enough to support just 14 walks in 49 innings. More walks per nine are on the way. Senzatela’s strikeout rate this year and in his minor league career reveals a pitcher who is struggling to strike out batters as he moves up the ladder. He has just 29 K’s in 49 innings and his low 6% swing and miss rate confirms he's not missing many bats. Obviously, eight starts is not enough to draw any conclusions about Senzatela's long-term potential but for 2017, there's reason to be skeptical. He missed a big chunk of 2016 with shoulder soreness and is making the leap from Double-A to the majors. Regression is inevitable here because Senzatela is not MLB-ready and should be back in the minors real soon. His surface starts are a complete mirage while his xERA of 5.66 is not.  

Tim Adleman’s surface starts are also in for a correction but his will be to the good. Adleman has a weak looking 5.27 ERA after the first six weeks of the season. That said, there is some life to his skills and they have been backed by a strong 11.3% swing and miss rate and decent 62% first-pitch strike rate. An inflated 20% hr/f and low 68% strand rate has been the real reason for his high ERA. Adleman has a nice 8/26 BB/K split in 27 frames. His groundball rate is only 40% but it was 57% in his last start and 46% in the start prior so that’s trending the right way also. While the lack of dominating stuff, his age (29), no pedigree and not a lot of success at this level prior all conspire against Adleman, tuck away his strikeout and good control and watch closely. There might be some money worth spending here and this line strongly suggests just that.

Account today at Pinnacle Sports and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks.