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Posted at 9:50 AM EST. 

GAME 1 of Doubleheader

1:10 PM EST. German Marquez is only four starts into his second season. Last year he appeared in six games with three of those coming as a starter. With a 4.88 ERA this year after four starts, he appears to be the second best option in this one and that may well be. However, this kid can pitch. Signed by the Rays in 2011 out of Venezuela for $225,000, Marquez was the prime player the Rockies received after the 2015 season when they traded Corey Dickerson to Tampa Bay. Marquez repaid the Rockies' confidence with a breakout 2016. He made the jump from Double-A Hartford to Triple-A Albuquerque to the big leagues in 2016, beating the Cardinals with five quality innings to win his first start. Marquez has plus velocity and it comes effortlessly at a consistent 94-96 mph and touches 98. The ball comes out of his hand with velocity and never fades. Marquez's solid three-pitch assortment includes a curveball that flashes plus and has good spin. His 2016 focus was to tighten it up, which he did. His changeup still needs work but it has good velocity differential from his fastball. He has shown an ability to pitch inside and use his changeup even when behind in the count. Most impressively, he reduced his walk rate in 2016 by more than a half walk per nine innings. This year, Marquez has 21 K’s in 24 innings. He has an outstanding 53% groundball rate. He’s a potential stud with nothing but upside and of all the Rocks’ starters, Marquez may give his team the best chance to win. With a 12-5 road record so far this year and with Marquez on the hill, the Rocks are live to be sure

Ervin Santana is killing it right now. After eight starts, Santana is 6-1 with a 1.50 ERA and he’s coming off a seven-inning, two-hit, zero earned runs gem against the Indians. While Santana has been serviceable for years, he’s not close to being this good but the market buys surface stats, which provides us with a beautifully inflated price here. Santana has a BB/K split of 21/41 in 54 frames. There’s nothing good about that at all. In fact, his BB/K ratio is poor. His 9% swing and miss rate is league average and so is his 60% first-pitch strike rate. Santana’s strong ERA is the direct result of MLB’s highest strand rate (92%) among qualified starters. Santana’s BABIP (batting average of balls in play) is a ridiculous .128 which is probably equivalent to a batter hitting .600 over the course of a season. In other words, that BABIP is impossible to sustain. Santana’s xERA is 4.07. Santana’s repertoire has not changed one bit so it’s not like he’s found some secret pitch all of a sudden. He’s been serviceable and extremely lucky and now he’s grossly overpriced because of it. 

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