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Posted at 9:50 AM EST. 

3:40 PM EST. We like the price here on the D-Backs. This is a park that is unforgiving to pitchers that are having trouble finding the plate and Matt Harvey fits the bill. Harvey has walked 17 batters over his past 28 innings. Over his last five starts, he’s walked more batters than he’s struck out. Thoracic outlet syndrome surgery ended Harvey’s season early last year and its symptoms played a role in his near-5.00 ERA. With limited sample, TOS is in the early stages in terms of projectable recovery and results are spotty. We’re not going to ignore the signs that Harvey has not recovered. His ball % is getting worse with each passing start. His first-pitch strike rate has gone from 59% to 54% to 51% to 41% respectively over his past four starts. Throw in a 6.83/6.22 ERA/xERA split over that time and throw this unforgiving park into the equation and it sure doesn’t look promising for the Mets’ starter here. Matt Harvey is performing progressively worse with each passing start. 

Since his breakout 2013 season, Patrick Corbin hasn't been much of a factor. He posted an ugly 5.15 ERA in 2016, but even after a blowup at Coors Field earlier this year, he’s now the owner of a 4.17 ERA through eight starts in 2017 so he’s a starter that’s trending in the right direction. Corbin was atypically wild a season ago, but has cut down on the free passes this season and the improvement is fully supported by his 62% first-pitch strike rate. His K-rate  has remained steady, but he's actually getting a few more swings and misses early on, including 39 in a recent two-game stretch. The sample is still small, but perhaps a small strikeout rate bump is in the cards. 

Corbin's groundball rate has fallen off from his 2016 mark, which was easily a career high but it’s of no concern because He still does a pretty nice job of keeping the ball down with a 52% rate so far this season. After a rough 2016 season, Corbin has flashed some positive signs in 2017. He's got his control back to his usual level and he’s inducing more swinging strikes than he did last season. Given his ability to miss some bats, limit the walks, and keep the ball down, he looks like a pretty good option here that we’re relying on to contain the Mets. 

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