Philadelphia @ TEXAS
Philadelphia +125 over TEXAS

BEST LINES: Pinnacle +125 Bet365 +120 SportsInteraction +125 5DIMES +125

Posted at 9:50 AM EST. 

8:05 PM EST. Zach Eflin was diagnosed in August of last year with a stress fracture in right foot and patellar tendinopathy in both knees. He subsequently underwent knee surgeries in September and was ready for spring training this year. He doesn’t miss enough bats (17 K’s in 32 innings) but we like his mound presence and his ability to locate. Eflin has walked just four batters all year and he has a nice groundball rate of 48%. This is a kid that steadily climbed the minors, one level per year like clockwork before his MLB debut last season. He posted outstanding minor-league numbers and he’s pitching with confidence at this level. He does not get into deep counts and is not afraid to throw any one of his three pitches at any time. We also like that his batting average against at every level including this one has always remained low.

Andrew Cashner is coming off a six-inning, five hit, one-run performance against the A’s. He now has an ERA of 2.43 after six starts and the most hits he’s allowed in any one of those starts is four. It all looks good on paper but when he inevitably blows up, you’ll know why because we’re about to inform you. Andrew Cashner can’t throw strikes. No pitcher in the history of this game has been able to succeed when he can’t throw strikes at this level and we promise you that Cashner is not going to be the first, especially at this park. In 33 innings this season, Cashner has walked 20 batters while striking out just 17. His swing and miss rate is 6%. Over his last five starts, Cashner’s WHIP is 1.68 but his ERA is 1.93 over that span. Those two numbers do not go hand in hand. What goes hand in hand with a 1.68 WHIP and 20 walks in 33 frames is an ERA in the neighbourhood of 6.00. Cashner’s xERA of 5.61 is a more accurate account of what’s in store for him sooner than later. One simply cannot get away with constantly falling behind in the count, not striking out many and putting traffic all around him and get away with it for long. Cashner is a disaster waiting to happen. 

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Our Pick

Philadelphia +125 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.50)

Boston +121 over Cleveland
Chicago +113 over Houston
Seattle -1½ +137 over Texas