Miami @ N.Y. METS
Miami +109 over N.Y. METS

BEST LINES: Pinnacle +109 Bet365 +100 SportsInteraction -110 5DIMES +102

Posted at 11:10 AM EST. 

1:10 PM EST. Jose Urena went 4-9 with a 6.13 ERA in 84 innings for Miami last year. He rode the AAA shuttle in the first half and the odometer is likely to keep rolling but there are signs that suggest we shouldn’t cross him off just yet. Urena throws 96 MPH on the gun without breaking a sweat. He has one of those “live arms’ that scouts look for. Urena started 21 times between 2015 and 2016 without success. So far in 2017, Urena has had surface success as evidenced by an ERA over 15 innings of 2.35 but that’s a small sample size. Urena’s xERA says there's still plenty of work to do but the talent is there and he’s a much better option than what’s waiting on the other side.

Adam Wilk cannot be favored. He’s a late replacement for Matt Harvey to start so he woke up this morning expecting something different. Wilk was called up on April 17 to help the bullpen with long relief but he was not needed and was sent right back down. The 6'2", 180-pound Wilk got a brief taste of the majors in 2011 and again in 2012 (where he made three starts), but otherwise has been stuck in Triple-A. Wilk is a starter who throws four pitches, but his fastball only reaches the upper-80s so it doesn't set up his cutter, curve and changeup enough to allow him to dominate batters. His control is quite good, being very stingy with his walks but his strikeout rate is usually in the five per nine range, and his home run rate at Triple-A has typically been over 1.3 per nine innings. Indeed, he gave up a home run on his first night pitching after his call up. In four seasons at the Triple-A level, the 27-year-old has a minor-league ERA of 4.74, a .291 oppBA and a whole bunch of other ugly numbers that aren’t likely going to turn into something good at this level. The Mets needed an emergency starter and this one is up by the process of elimination.

NOTE: We are still committed to playing one baseball total daily and will pick it up again on Monday. On Sunday, there is not enough time to do the research. 

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Our Pick

Miami +109 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.18)

Boston +121 over Cleveland
Chicago +113 over Houston
Seattle -1½ +137 over Texas