San Francisco @ CINCINNATI
CINCINNATI -1½ +168 over San Francisco

BEST LINES: Pinnacle -1½ +168 Bet365 -1½ +165 SportsInteraction -1½ +160 5DIMES -1½ +165

Posted at 12:00 PM EST. 

7:10 PM EST. Amir Garrett is a big lefty that’s still new to pitching (3rd season on the mound). His control last year was not great and thus, the move to AAA in the 2nd half proved to be a challenge, as his big fastball wasn't generating enough strikeouts. The synopsis after last year was that he was just a few adjustments away from reaching the big leagues and here we are. Garrett has made five starts and thrown 30 innings. Over that span, he has four pure quality starts with a BB/K split of 10/26. Garrett has a heavy fastball that works away from the batter. His slider is another tool that is quickly developing into a plus offering, and his changeup has seen marked improvement too. Garrett quickly moved up the minor league ladder and he’s quickly improving in every area. He has an elite groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate of 51%/16%/34%. He’s intelligent on the mound and has a wealth of pure talent. It’s almost scary to think that he’s been pitching for just three years after starting his sports career playing basketball for St. John's University before switching to baseball. For all of you in keeper fantasy leagues, Garrett is a major target you should be gunning for. For this purpose, however, he’s facing a weak hitting team with a horrible rookie starting.  

Ty Blach comes in with a 2.55 ERA after two starts and seven relief appearances covering 18 innings, but it’s a pure luck-driven number that is not sustainable. The 6-2, 200-pound Blach surprised many when he outdueled Clayton Kershaw to lock up a post-season berth for the Giants last year. Despite that, he lost out to Matt Cain for a spot in the rotation as the teams’ #5 starter. Frankly, that’s all one needs to know because losing out to Cain is not easy. In 18 innings, Blach has walked six batters but only struck out five. He has a 3% swing and miss rate so he’s at the mercy of batted balls in play. His xERA is 7.22, which is MLB’s worst mark among pitchers with 15 or more innings. Blach is a career minor leaguer with 600 innings pitched in the minors, where he struck out just 414 and posted an oppBA of .278. These starters that have been riding buses for years have some appeal. They come in rather relaxed with nothing to lose. They have seen everything and experienced everything and just keep plodding along. However, Blach’s ERA is a complete mirage that is going to get blown up. Aside from that, the Giants have very little going for them while the Reds are loaded with talent that looks completely legit in the early going.e’s getting murdered by his brutal skills and we’re going to fade him each and every time he starts until he starts no more.  

NOTE: We are still committed to playing 1 baseball total daily and will have today's posted sometime around 5:30 PM EST.

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Our Pick

CINCINNATI -1½ +168 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.36)

Boston +121 over Cleveland
Chicago +113 over Houston
Seattle -1½ +137 over Texas