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Jul 16, 2017 20:44:26
Glad to see you are having a good year once again after a tough 2016, the world is back to normal, keep up the great work, we appreciate it
TOM
Thanks for the taking the time to send that Tom.
Jul 15, 2017 12:20:08
Very nice call on the Als last night Brian. Looking forward to reading more of your posts.
Eddie R.
Thanks so much Eddie.
Jul 7, 2017 22:59:52
Mike O'Shea might be the CFL's worst coach. Doesn't challenge anything, won't go on 3rd down despite his defence being carved up by Bo Levi and made no adjustments to counter Dickinson. Brutal. Just brutal. Fade the Bombers.
Joel
CFL's worst coach is complementary. The planet's worst coach is more like it.
Jul 7, 2017 12:36:49
Congratulations on an amazing baseball season Brian. You are killing it this year. Want to know your thoughts on my Winnipeg Jets picking up Steve Mason. I would have been happy with either Brian Elliott or Steve Mason. I think all the pieces are now in place for this franchise to take the next step. Bet365 is offering 50-1 Stanley Cup odds. Have sprinkled some already on them. Waiting on Pinnacle's odds. All the talk before the season already is Edmonton or Toronto and maybe Calgary as Canada's best chance at the Cup. Lots of value on the the Jets i feel. If Nashville can get to the finals with a sieve like Pekka Rinne why not us? Again continued success remainder of the year.
Puckhandler
Thanks for the message Puck. Unfortunately, I'm not onside with the Jets. Don't get me wrong, as I absolutely love the talent on that team and have said so many times but until they correct the intangibles, I'm not interested. That means, losing Paul Maurice and never letting him in the building again. That means showing more discipline and not leading the league in penalties every year. That means sticking with one goaltender and letting him get hot. As soon as Mason inevitably has some bad games, Maurice will start the revolving door again. Incidentally, Mason has never done anything except have one outstanding year. He's another Connor Hellebucyk/Pavelec/Hutch and I highly doubt he's the answer. Again, I love the talent but not the culture. That said, I would never discourage anyone from making a bet that they like unless the value was awful. The value on the Jets at 50-1....It's likely worth it with all that talent. Best of luck.
Jul 7, 2017 02:36:52
Brian, I've been a successful sports bettor for a little over a decade, I've worked both sides of the counter. I've also been a capper charging a significant commission amount off the winnings of my clients. You are the sharpest mind I've ever seen in this industry. Just when I thought i knew it all, you've shown me even more to add to the arsenal. I never take anyone's advice on what or when to wager but you're the exception to my rule. Thank you for all your hard work & dedication. It is greatly appreciated. If ever I'm in your area I def owe you at least supper, drinks & a Jays or Leafs game. Cheers bud
Dave
Thanks so much Dave for taking the time to write. All I can say is you're welcome and that your message made my day! I'll take dinner anytime you're in the area! Thanks again and best of luck, always.
Jul 4, 2017 20:57:12
We were lucky to get out of that TB@CHC game with the W. I don't know why Kevin Cash kept Archer in that long. Should have yanked him at the 6-2 point with 2 outs in the 5th. Cubbies went on to make it 6-3 and he still didn't yank him. Archer pitched a great game striking out 8 through 6 innings, but you know that feeling you were mentioning in your podcast where you feel things are going south? I was getting that feeling watching Archer stay in the game and then go onto pitch over 112 pitches...Don't even get me started on Colome...the Baseball Gods were good to us today even with Kevin Cash's bad management.
RV
At that point, when it was 6-2, BET365 was offering Cubbies +3.5 runs +1.25 and that was the perfect opportunity to buy back based on instincts. I felt it too RV and it is exactly what I was talking about. You are right in that we were fortunate to hold on but once again it comes down to playing value and letting the chips fall where they may!
Jun 29, 2017 21:29:13
Hey Brian, I liked your podcast especially regarding the money management part. Right now, I'm doing something like this and would like to hear your opinion on it. $1,000 bankroll, $10/Unit, usually betting $20 per game. If I get up to $1,250...I change my unit size to $12.50/Unit or $25 per game. Once I get to $1500 or more I cash out the profit and go back to $1,000.00. When I go on a losing skid, and I go down to $750.00 I start betting $15.00 per game. If it's really bad and I go down to $500, I will start betting $10.00 per game. Anyway, I was wondering how you see this bankroll management method? Also, perhaps you could include in an upcoming podcast about cash outs and when you recommend players take their cash? Best Wishes Buddy!
SportsBettor159
Jun 29, 2017 09:58:51
Wow great job -- you're on fire and great analysis also
JP
It's nice to get some bounces. Thank you JP.
Jun 29, 2017 03:09:54
Nice round robin tonight, thank you buddy!!
Seosamh
Get it while it's going good! Thanks Seosamh, we're glad you cashed some tickets.
Jun 28, 2017 18:40:16
Evening Brian, do you see any value taking the O's over the Jays tonight at +192 on the Moneyline?
Chris
Chris, I didn't get this message in time but trust me when I tell you that I look at every game and if it's not on my slate, I'm not interested. That doesn't mean there isn't value. One could find value in many different games but I seek out the best value of the day and post it. Baltimore was a great price last night and of course they could have won so if you see value, by all means bet it and trust yourself. The better info to seek out would be to ask to give you a brief rundown on the starting pitchers, which I would have been glad to do, time permitting. Hope you passed on it. Best of luck.
Jun 27, 2017 08:34:27
Sherwood, I was introduced to your website about four years ago and this is my first time writing because I felt compelled to do so. After 15 years of betting on sports, I actually thought that I knew a few things about sports betting but I was wrong. I knew nothing. You are innovative with your strategies, incredibly insightful with your analysis and even more incredibly generous with your time. I have gone from being a 15-time (year) loser to a winning player all because I have embraced your philosophies. I can’t thank you enough for all that you do and for the time you spend educating guys like me. Usually when things are free, there is a catch but you ask for nothing in return. Class act you are.
Jeremy
Thanks Jeremy for the very kind words. We'll keep trying to spread the good word over here. Best of luck always and thanks so much for taking the time to write.
Jun 26, 2017 10:36:30
Loving the baseball parlays. Cashed in 3 tickets last night, two 16-1 tickets & one 13-1 ticket. If the Rockies would have won would have cashed in on a few more. Truly a great strategy!
RV
Keep it going RV and thanks for taking the time to let us know. Damn Rockies!
Jun 26, 2017 08:26:05
Hi, i watched your parlay tutorial and liked it. Would you be able to post or show what your daily parlays are?
Jon
Sorry Jon, that would be too difficult because I play anywhere between 10 and 30 parlays a day and posting all of them is too time consuming. I have provided you with the tools to create high paying parlays/selections and I always use the picks I have posted on this site. Best of luck.
Jun 25, 2017 07:31:38
Very impressive Quadfecta of picks you handed everybody yesterday. Everyone, please give this man a big round of applause as he unselfishly gives our betting public quality picks day in and day out. Much respect Woody, keep up the great work!!
Dawg_Bets
Thanks Dawg
Jun 20, 2017 17:06:44
I just needed to clear the air in respond to the some of the rhetoric that may be targeted at this site. I have said it personally but I will say it now publicly. In a world where integrity is considered a joke by many, this man is transparent. I never met a more honest and stand-up person in this industry. Needless to say Brian is one of the most stand-up people I know, period. Any implications about the banners on this site, I can tell you right now. This man wants you to win and he is an absolute genius at what he does. You will never meet someone like Brian and its a blessing to know him and call him a friend.
piranhapoet
You're too kind but thanks so much for vote of confidence and support.
Jun 18, 2017 22:27:38
Cannot access your site off Google Chrome, is it just me?
TOM
It's just you Tom. Seems to be working just fine.
Jun 18, 2017 19:35:40
What a call on the golf 🏌, I never heard of the guy but looks like he got it ! Congrats my man
Seosamh
Thanks Seosamh
Jun 13, 2017 01:52:37
KaBoom!! Great night. Your continuing to hammer home the "Betting for Value" strategy has been bankroll changing for me. Thanks Sherwood
Paul
Thanks Paul. Great to hear you're turning it around and embracing a different strategy. Keep it going!
Jun 10, 2017 11:58:14
Hi Sherwood... just looking at the lines and today it looks like the Cubs are the play of the day. They've lost three straight and get the Rockies without their full lineup. Thoughts? Best of luck as always.
Cubs play of the day
Money pouring in on Cubbies, which is rarely a good sign. Prefer Rocks.
Jun 8, 2017 18:18:54
Hi Sherwood - I don't get how Pinny NHL OT puck lines work with 1.25. 4.75 etc...Thx as Usual.
Rob
I think your problem is that you are on "Decimal Odds" instead of "American Odds". At the very top of the page, even higher than your balance....and on the left, there is a drop down menu. Set it to American odds and then everything else will be clear to you. Good luck Rob and lemme know if that was the issue.
Jun 8, 2017 11:56:32
Hey Brian, can you recommend any decent websites where you find the "under the hood" stats on pitchers like XERA, swing and miss % , etc... Besides betting purposes, would like to use these for DFS as far as finding undervalued pitchers, Thanks, Reid
Reid
Yes Reid, go to Fangraphs and then click the "Scores" tab and then click probable pitchers. That will give you a list of today's pitchers. Make sure you set it to 2017 once you get there. You can also look up any player, team, etc. For real in-depth look at any pitcher or player, click on their name. That will give you their pitch mix and many other useful statistics.
Jun 7, 2017 08:17:09
Hi Brian! What are your thoughts on the Nationals/Dodgers game today. Washington currently at +152 with Strasburg going in against Kershaw. Might be worth a bet?
Paul R
Jun 6, 2017 10:30:41
Waiting to see the series price to come out for Pittsburgh vs Nashville. Hoping there is a huge market overreaction to the Game 4 Nashville win.
RV
It's out. Pittsburgh is -130. Two games ago, they were -450.
Jun 6, 2017 08:25:44
When Pekka Rinne hoists the Conn Smythe trophy this weekend will you finally accept that the dude is really a darn good goalie and one of the league's elite netminders?
Chris G.
Have it your way Chris. He's great. That's the beautiful thing about sports, two people can watch the exact same game and see two entirely different things. To me, Rinne is pure rat shit.
Jun 6, 2017 05:02:24
On fire my friend in baseball. It's like reading tomorrow's newspaper today!! Keep up the great work.
Paul
Thank you Paul. We'll hope it continues!
Jun 5, 2017 21:56:48
Good luck on your series bet in game 7. These frauds aren't sniffing a victory in Nashville.
Cam
Frauds? That's a little harsh. They've been playing hockey for almost 730 consecutive days and the key guys have had about 4½ weeks off during that stretch. One has to appreciate how talented, determined and resilient they are and I'm not a fan.
Jun 4, 2017 14:23:09
Hey Brian. I know you always play value but for the life of me I can't figure out why you're so high on the Pens. You preached about how lucky they were throughout the first two series. They barely beat Ottawa (albeit the Pens were the far better team) and now they've been outplayed every game in the finals. Yet you still see value in them and they're the favourite. To me it seems very contrary to the usual handicapping that I see you use and win year after year. I suppose my question is why do you see Value on the Pens? The only thing I can see is Murray vs Rinne and to be completely honest, that alone might be enough...
Cam
Right on Cam. The biggest factor that determines games is goaltending and that is why Pitt will win. It's like having a bad QB in football. To me, the goaltending match-up is like Aaron Rodgers v Jay Cutler.
Jun 4, 2017 12:18:45
The Steelers and Penguins aren't playing today so you have been hacked LOL
Jimmy
Wish they were all that easy. Had to do it!
Jun 4, 2017 09:02:46
It's not too late to hedge on the Penguins. +220 isn't the +425 being offered yesterday, but it remains a value play given how dominant they have been throughout most of the series. The Penguins are gassed and their defenses have been exposed. I'll go out on a limb and suggest the next win for the Penguins will be in October.
Joel
Overreaction. We'll be on Pittsburgh next game out.
Jun 3, 2017 08:40:19
Is Ty Blach this year's Marco Estrada? A pitcher who uses smoke & mirrors to grind his way to improbable wins?
Joel
May 30, 2017 17:22:32
Hi - I'm thinking about season long wins in the NFL and wondering if you plan on putting out any recommendations. They've been rock solid moneymakers in years past, you can't stop now. Hah. Thanks
Mick
We'll definitely have some recommendations Mick. I have two very high on my radar right now so look for them sometime around mid-August.
May 30, 2017 08:06:14
I remember what you said about guys getting maybe 10 grand to fight and those are the fights that might be rigged.....Here's the vid....... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HD96So56xFY&feature=em-uploademail
Alan
That's great. You guys that listen to the podcast are awesome and we appreciate it so much. Thanks for sharing this. VERY COOL and you guys should watch it.
May 29, 2017 20:59:32
Hey Sherwood, just got home from work. I hoped to post this pregame, but I think you are really selling the Preds short here. The Senators took the Penguins the distance and beyond and Nashville is 10x the team Ottawa is. I'm expecting Nashville to dominate this series and win in 5. Great work on the diamond lately, BTW.
Joel
I've sold teams short before Joel, so we shall see. You're not alone in thinking the Preds have a great chance. Best of luck in every other game you bet!
May 27, 2017 17:18:37
Excellent work Sherwood! Smoking hot! I feel like I owe You some money? Killing it Sherwood ! Keep up the great work. Any MLB teams on your fade or buy radar?
Mike555
Thanks much Mike. My buy targets are Seattle and KC and Miami and my sell targets are Baltimore and Washington
May 27, 2017 03:02:44
Had a great night last night, thanks to you ! Great picks
Joe
Really glad you cashed some tickets Joe and thanks for letting us know.
May 25, 2017 18:45:29
Took that Ottawa +491 pick for one unit and decided to hedge my bet today. I highly doubt Ottawa wins in Pittsburgh. The Penguins have been great against them at home. Anyway, if Pittsburgh wins I am up 3.6 units, and if Ottawa pulls off the upset I get a push. Matt Murray and Sidney Crosby on home ice made me do this lol. Great new podcast btw.
RV
Thank you RV
May 24, 2017 11:53:10
Hey Sherwood, I'm trying to figure out the best option (value wise) for getting money down on Nashville to win the cup. I'm having trouble determining if its best to bet them now (+100) or to wait until pitts and Ottawa are done. I picture the line going to a +120ish for Nash if pitts wins game 7. But if Ottawa wins Nash will probably be around the -200 range. I feel like it's smartest to bet now and hope Ottawa wins (not even to mention our series bet 😁) but if you have a spare moment would like to hear any insight you may have.
Cam
You are right on the money Cam with your assessment and probable lines for the two possible match-ups. I would buy Nashville now for sure. You get a huge bargain if Ottawa happens to win and if Pitt wins, the Preds will be a very small dog against Pitt. I think you are too generous on the Nash v Pitt match-up in suggesting the Preds will be +120. My guess would be less but even so, you are not off by much at all. Buy it now and best of luck!
May 24, 2017 10:02:38
Further to RV, I took the extra unit at 5-1 on Ottawa last night. Now I have 3 units on Ottawa for a profit of 10.1 units. If I did the math right, I want to freeroll on Ottawa for the original 5.1 wager, I need Pitt -167 or better. 5 units x 1.6 multiplier = 8 units (3 unit profit) 1/(1.6-1) = -167. Maybe this is a bad idea, we'll know when Sherwood puts up a write-up on Game 7. I'm also wondering whether we should bet Pitt to win it all at +125, may be our only chance to get them as a +. Thanks for your advice Brian.
Dave M.
The math looks pretty damn close to me Dave so you put yourself in a good position. I also like the idea of buying Pitt @ +125 to win Cup NOW. If Ottawa beats em, great but if not, you have a great bet in the Cup finals. Best of luck whatever you do but it looks like it's all profit from here. Nice job.
May 23, 2017 09:27:19
Morning Brian, just looking at the lines at I think there has been an overreaction to the 7-0 blowout for the Penguins in Game 5. Ottawa are +124 dogs at home tonight. I believe that the Sens will show up tonight after that kind of an embarrassing game. However, the real value lies in the series price. Ottawa is now +491 to win the series. +491 to win two games with one being at home? Looks like tremendous value. Thoughts?
RV
RV, if you think there is value and an overreaction, by all means bet it. No question there is value on the Sens at this price to win 2 games. The question is can they do it....We shall see but I don't like their chances because they had their foot on the Pens throat once and didn't finish them off. You usually don't get a second chance against a team like Pitt. 2) The Penguins are getting better and healthier with each passing game. 3). Pittsburgh looks too good with Murray in goal. He gives up nothing while MAF was a compete wild card. Those are my thoughts but I could be wrong.
May 22, 2017 11:04:38
Sherwood you always preach about how it is impossible to predict games so you have to bet value. If you keep winning like this it will be hard to think you're not clairvoyant! Keep up the great work.
Cam
Thank you so much Cam
May 22, 2017 10:16:30
Nice 5-0 Sunday and very solid bounce back year so far! With all of your codified winning years, your strategy of finding value in underpriced dogs clearly works but wouldn't you be even further ahead if you mixed in a few favourites from time to time? Hope your sweet roll continues!
Scott
Thank you Scott. I do play favs, only I play them -1½ taking back juice and in the NHL, I play em -½. In football, we have our fair share of favs too. It's not that I refuse to play favs, I refuse to lay more than 10 cents on a game (except totals or golf) so I'll play them on the run or puck line.
May 20, 2017 11:48:54
Any Preakness selections? Looking at Lee was a great call on derby with a wet track
Ed v
Sorry Ed, no Preakness picks, as I did not have a good look. I will though for the Belmont
May 18, 2017 19:38:40
Great in-depth analysis and pick on today's Pittsburgh Washington game all these so-called experts were screaming Washington in unison but Pittsburgh was the right call! Time to heat it up!
Mike555
May 17, 2017 17:44:44
Hey sherwood, no love for the sens tonight? underdogs at home.
Chris
I really hated their strategy last game Chris. Instead of attacking with a 1-0 series lead, they laid back the entire game and let Pittsburgh without two key players (injured early) dictate pace. No killer instinct and it scares me off them tonight. If they employ same strategy, they'll lose tonight. I really hope they come out and play the way they did in the first two series. I need Ottawa for Series so I'll be rooting for them big time again.
May 17, 2017 12:32:13
Hi Brian! Are there any particular sites that you can share where you can find in depth pitching stats xERA, GB/FB/LD rates, pitch selection and usage ect... Thanks!
Paul R
Yes, I use fangraphs, That site will provide you with all the stats you mention. They use xFIP, which is essentially the same as xERA.
May 17, 2017 11:20:32
What site do you use for xERA or do you calculate it yourself? I can't find any. Thanks
Michael
I use fangraphs Michael. They use a stat called xFIP, which is the same as xERA and stands for Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) measures what a player’s ERA would look like over a given period of time if the pitcher were to have experienced league average results on balls in play and league average timing. Good luck man.
May 16, 2017 13:00:12
How come you aren't fading Estrada today?
Michael
Estrada's underlying numbers are much better this year so I passed. Also, Garcia's numbers are really bad.
May 16, 2017 09:35:22
Would you mind if in your writeups, you put in a rank of which game would be your key game to do your parlay work? For me to do 10 games for each game you post here, makes me overlap a lot of games and I've had a bit of frustration. I'll watch the video again, maybe I missed something. Keep up the great work BS!
Dave M.
Dave. I do not want to rank my games. I think it's important for you to pick your best game(s) and key it. I usually pick two keys a day, If other games overlap or if you are using the same team twice in add-ones, it's fine. Stick with it and fine tune it. I posted another tutorial on same page so there are two video's to watch now or two different days. Keep us posted. Best of luck.
May 15, 2017 11:37:40
First post - I think you mean you had the Senators...
Greg
Thanks Greg
May 13, 2017 11:29:28
Morning Brian, Loving the baseball ML parlays, cashed in on a few tickets already. In terms of picking the third game on the Alternate runline, I started looking at taking all visitors because if the game goes to extras, you still have a great shot of hitting 2+ runs as the visitor in the top of the inning. As the home team, you have to hope for a HR with runners on base. Do you see that as a good strategy? Also, any thoughts on buying a unit on Anaheim to win the series at +222?
RV
It's a good strategy for sure RV and one that I employ often. I'm always looking at the away team for add-ons before the home team for that exact same reason. Glad it's working out for you man. Keep cashing!!!
May 9, 2017 23:11:17
Hello Brian, long time fan, and first time poster. I wanted to ask you if you see sports betting online as being a potential full time job? I handicap now to supplement my income, but I was wondering if there are people out there who bet full time on sites like Pinnacle? I don't think I could handle the swings but just wanted to get your views on it.
Chris
Hi Chris: There are certainly a handful of people that bet sports full time professionally. To do so, you need an abundance of patience and discipline. People also "arbitrage" and make a living and play betting exchanges and make a living too. It's a tough grind to be sure but it can be done.
May 9, 2017 15:01:03
Hi Brian, I noticed that Pinnacle removed Game 2 (CHI @ COL) from the Alternate Runlines. Do you think they will put it back up or should I just take the Rockies on the ML? - Thanks.
RV
They are likely to put it up once they get the lineup of both teams or confirm starters. Wait until an hour or so before game time and bet accordingly.
May 9, 2017 10:31:27
Hi Brian - I noticed a typo in your Washington East pick...in your write up it indicates 3 units but the footer shows 2 units.
Rob
May 8, 2017 18:59:10
Outstanding work with the golf! Doesn't look like the Yanks are resting anyone tonight. They must not want to mess with what is working. I can't see Rookie Davis cooling off those bats.
Joel
May 8, 2017 15:01:54
Hey Sherwood, I'm thinking about taking the Penguins at home in regulation tonight. -0.5 is +149 on Pinny. Any thoughts on value there?
SportsBettor159
I would never take you off a bet SB. There is great value on that wager. Should be a great game and we'll see what the Caps are made of. Wash is the better team on paper, as Pitt looks very beatable these days but no game was ever played on paper and Washington plays "NOT TO LOSE" far too often instead of "playing to win". That said, the 3rd period of the last game was the Caps best period all playoffs and if they play like that, they'll win. I have my doubts they'll play like that though....BEST OF LUCK!
May 8, 2017 12:05:38
When it comes to cashing out on Bet365 do you have any rules to follow? Last night middle of 9th Yanks up 4-1 with Chapman coming in I could have cashed out only losing $.85. Didn't and sweated it out. Last weekend cashed out of a 4 gamer (first 3 were winners) for 3-1 odds in middle of 9th with Colo losing by 2. They score 3 to win 6-5. Made $20 but didn't make $190. Almost yacked. Your professional opinion would be greatly appreciated!!
Jimmy
That is really tough because there are no set rules. That said, I never recommend buying out of what appears to be a losing bet to try and save a few bucks. If the bet loses, so be it. Just remember that if the book is offering it, it is to their benefit and not yours. The best advice I can give you Jimmy is to "TRUST your INSTINCTS" because they are usually right. If you feel a game slipping away, sell before the price gets too low. I much prefer to buy IN GAME than sell. In other words, give me a t3eam that is down two runs at an inflated price and I would much rather do that. Selling In-game is not to your benefit. Actually, that's a great topic for the podcast that we'll cover this week. Best of luck!
May 8, 2017 10:03:42
Beauty PGA picks this week with the winner and 2 others right there Sunday!! Didn't think in game variance occurred in golf but when he pulled out the fairway metal on 18 it almost did. It worked out obviously but that was a terrible decision. My wife wondered what was going on while trying to bbq and win 90-1 money at the same time LOL.
Jimmy
Thanks so much Jimmy. I'm sure that BBQ tasted as sweet as the victory. Thanks for writing.
May 7, 2017 15:59:37
Good job on your Jays pick Sherwood. Very tight game, Darwin Barney of all ppl was the difference.
Ryan
We got lucky.
May 7, 2017 12:43:24
Good afternoon Sherwood. Not sure I am in agreement with your write up on the Jays-Rays game. Biagini is only expected to throw 60 pitches/work four innings. Jays pen is a disaster and Grilli threw 39 pitches last night and will likely not be used today. Save your money and take the Rays. I'm also on the Brewers today, not sure how many Pitt will be able to score. Enjoy your write ups as usual. All the best!
Ryan
That's why they play the games. Nice pick on Milwaukee too, Ryan. Both picks were solid and it's obvious you do your homework. Continued success my friend.
May 7, 2017 10:13:47
Thanks for the Kentucky Derby picks. I'm not a big horse racing bettor, but threw some fun bets on both your picks to SHOW. Looking at Lee coming in second more than covered the cost of both bets. Also made watching the race much more fun having a little action on the line. Thanks Brian!
Dave O
You're welcome Dave and I'm really happy you picked up something. Thanks for letting us know. Best of luck, always.
May 6, 2017 14:19:01
Afternoon Sherwood, I have found a free site for the "Air Density Index"..Go to the Neely Scale..Enter in the zip code of the stadium or location and presto, you have your reading...Luv your site..BOL to all..Remember, no one can predict the outcome of games..🙂
Douglas
May 6, 2017 11:50:15
I've taken a break for a few weeks and saw all those W's. Decided to jump on last night. Only me, sorry for the mush. Stick me in the bathroom!
Joe
I hear ya Joe. Sometimes it feels that way. Hang in Bro, It'll get better
May 5, 2017 10:34:23
Hi Brian! Have you ever played or have you ever considered playing an alternate run line game played in Colorado as your "key play" or 2nd game on the parlay strategy or would you just use those games strictly as "addons"? Good job on this week's podcast by the way!
Paul R
Absolutely Paul. I always key the dog in Colorado because most games are won by 2 runs and the dog has just as good a shot as the fav. It's a great play as a key or "second game". Good question and good luck!
May 4, 2017 13:30:10
Hey Sherwood, do you see any value in taking the Sens or the Preds on the road tonight?
SportsBettor159
Preds are tomorrow Sportsbettor but I do see value on the Sens tonight for sure. They can win and the only reason I'm not on it is because if they lose, they go to being a dog again 9in SERIES and I already have them in SERIES. It's a close series and Sens will very likely be better tonight than they were on Monday
May 3, 2017 17:38:16
Hi, I really like your innovative approach to playing the MLB total....I have checked weather/wind for years but this Air Density Index is interesting....I have used "DailyBaseballData' for my weather reports, and they have listed the ADI (as provided by Baseball VMI)...but ever since you mentioned this, they have removed this info and provide it only for premium accounts. Can you say where you obtain this ADI information every day?
Jeff
Yes, Jeff, I have a premium account at so I pay for the info. That info you were getting wasn't always accurate at DailyBaseballData. I pay for a service at VMI that allows me to gather information at the exact location or any address in the world for that matter. It's fascinating stuff.
May 3, 2017 00:03:49
Longtime reader, first time poster. Huge props to all the hard work and research you do everyday. Also, your podcast has made my commute more enjoyable and educational. I'd love to hear more about your baseball parlays. Please email the link to me at xxxxxxx
Stew
Thanks so much for the kind words Stew. I have sent the link to the parlay tutorial to your email.
May 2, 2017 18:33:46
Hey Brian, any ideas of how to bet tonight's Nashville game? I would never lay -160 on a moneyline period let alone in playoffs. I'm also hesitant to bet 3 way since you never really know and Allen can steal a game like he did game 3... I feel like the best option is to pass since we already have the series but at the same time Nashville should be 7 - 0 and have been getting better every game... so I don't want to pass up on them. Thanks in advance
Cam
There's nothing wrong with passing on a game and since you have Nashville in series, you have a strong rooting interest. My gut says the Blue Notes are going to be difficult tonight so I passed too. All of your points are valid so no need to force a bet on a game you don't LOVE. If Nashville wins, you didn't miss out on anything. Best of luck Cam.
May 2, 2017 13:42:16
Hey Sherwood, Great work and write-ups as per usual! My day doesn't officially start until i read your selections. Love the podcast and really enjoying the logic/theory behind your daily baseball total. When you have a moment, can you send me the link to the baseball moneyline parlay tutorial-much appreciated. Keep up the GREAT work! Cheers,
Gianni
Thanks so much Gianni. I truly appreciate the time you took to write. I have sent you the link to your email.
May 2, 2017 09:46:00
Yesterday was my 4th day playing your parlay strategy and I've cashed in 2 of 4 days so far. Really loving this so far. Thanks again for sharing!
Paul R
Very cool Paul. Thanks for taking the time to let us know and continued good luck. It is a lot of fun to play too!
Apr 30, 2017 18:18:19
Hey Brian, in terms of selecting the third game in the parlays. I've done a combination of about 70% Alternate runline picks and about 30% favourites -1.5 where it pays at least +150. I'm just wondering does it make sense to throw in a few favourites in there for the third game? Thanks.
RV
The idea is to get the true odds and take away the house edge. Adding in the fav takes that away. You can do anything you like but if I play favorites, I always play them -1½ runs and plus money. Use that third spot to pick prices to jack up payout. Good luck RV.
Apr 28, 2017 19:41:49
Great baseball parlay presentation Brian. It really makes so much sense. Thank you so much for sharing.
RV
You are welcome RV.
Apr 28, 2017 10:10:16
Another great podcast Brian. Keep up the good work.
Mike
Thanks so much Mike. I really appreciate the time you take to say so.
Apr 28, 2017 09:35:43
Notice you have no takes on Ducks/Oilers so far, any interest going forward?
Mike
We didn't see any value in Game 1 Mike or in the series but that changes today. Expect to see something for sure as early as today and perhaps more throughout the series.
Apr 25, 2017 15:42:02
hey sherman, love the write ups! a daily read for me even when i dont bet. can you please forward me the link for moneyline baseball parlays to jamesw.mclean@hotmail.com. keep up the great work & i love the "colorado effect", i really think its gonna work!
jimmy mclean
Apr 24, 2017 16:57:18
Hey Sherwood, please send me the link for moneyline baseball parlays. Thanks for all the great picks!
Jimmy
Sent to your e-mail Jimmy.
Apr 24, 2017 13:54:39
Hey Sherwood, please send me the link for moneyline baseball parlays. Cameron.watson91@gmail.com
Cam
Info sent to your email Cam
Apr 24, 2017 12:19:53
Hi Brian...great work on the 1st rounds NHL series picks!! Please send the MLB parlay tutorial. My email is jstevens@schlueteracura.com. Keep up the great work!!
Jimmy
Thank you Jimmy. Info sent to your email
Apr 23, 2017 20:59:20
Brian : Have you considered trying then Rockies angle on Cubs home games with similarly high totals on days when the wind is blowing out. CUBS will usually be a big fab at home, so nice possibility of really big payoffs there.
Manny
Won't work for Cubs games for several reasons. One, the wind is only blowing out hard on rare occasions....Two, the wind or weather reports are unreliable and not at game time. Three, the Cubs are a monster at home and therefore don't lose a lot of games. Arizona's Chase Field and Texas' Globe Life Park are the other two parks you can try this at. Both teams will be around .500 and both parks are huge hitting venues.
Apr 23, 2017 11:43:11
I follow your site every day. Always tidbits of pertinent info win or lose . Kindly send info on money line parlays too. Thanks and keep up the great work .
patrick smith
Thank you Patrick. Info sent to your email
Apr 23, 2017 11:35:48
Hi Brian. I would lIke to get the link for the baseball parlay tutorial. Thanks and keep up the great work!!
Jason
You're welcome Jason. Info has been sent to email you provided.
Apr 22, 2017 17:02:00
Brian: A couple of thoughts on the Rockies game Sat. Hard to call a definite dog in this game. The RL and alt RL are both nearly +175. At $100 a bet I would never bet both of them Because a one run game loses $200 but a non One run game only wins $75. Now since these bets are mechanically produced It seems both plays should be +EV, BUT I doubt They are. I suggest that you have a cut off point to eliminate These lower paying plays and perhaps not play it Unless perhaps +250 or whatever.
Manny
These are good suggestions Manny that I will absolutely consider. Thanks for taking the time to write.
Apr 20, 2017 23:52:15
Great podcast this week guys. Keep up the good work.
Dave O
Thanks so much Dave
Apr 20, 2017 17:00:20
Name: Hi Brian ... On Bet 365 I can\'t see where I can play Nashville -1/2. If I go to 3 way betting I can see them @ -1. Is this the same thing?
J Stevens
Hi there: No, -1 is not the same thing.....On the 3-way, the very last column...(there are 3 columns) is the -0.5 column. It says money line but it means the same thing. If the game ends in a tie after regulation, it's a loss. So on BET365...3 way lines...there are 3 columns and the third column is -0.5 but it says money line. GOOD LUCK!
Apr 20, 2017 16:46:56
Brian, Big fan of your work, appreciate all you do in educating the sports bettor. Would love to hear your podcast on money line parlays. Please forward link to xxxxxxxx Best, Mike
Mike
Thanks Mike...it has been forwarded.
Apr 20, 2017 16:19:01
Wow Brian, just to touch on Cam's comment below, talk about in game variance this afternoon at the Dome. Scoreless all the way to the ninth, Estrada and Sale were locked in the whole game. Boston goes up 1-0 to end the top of the ninth. Looks pretty bleak for our BOS -1.5 bet, but then the Jays hit a solo homer and tie it. Now we got a ball game but we still need to win by 2. So many different things could have happened, Jays could have hit a 2 run shot. Boston could have won 1-0, who knows. No one could have predicted that kind of a 9th inning...Good call on the game.
RV
Apr 19, 2017 12:41:39
In terms of Game 4 tonight, oh boy does that +128 TOR ML line reek of trap or what? Toronto up 2-1 in the series, they are at home, AND they are a +128 dog on the ML? Come on. The Bruins are down 2-1 and they are -156 at home? Lol. Stay away from the Leafs on the ML tonight...BTW any views on taking St. Louis at home tonight, or you not liking the line? Thanks Brian, and keep up the good work!
RV
I disagree RV. It's not a sucker bet at all. You can't compare Boston/Ottawa to Tor/Wash. Washington was a -350 fav to win series. They rarely lose three in a row, yet alone 3 in a row to same team. People will view the Caps as a cheap price tonight and probably play them. St. L and Minn is tight. It figures to be close and it's priced right.
Apr 18, 2017 11:32:13
Great hockey picks yesterday. It was the perfect example of in game variance you always talk about. Every game went to OT and we could just as easily have gone 0-4. As you say, its all about value and letting the chips fall. Thanks for your insight everyday.
Cam
That is exactly right Cam. Kuznetsov clearly had Andersen beat with four minutes left in the third that he rang off the post. Had he buried that shot, Leafs would be down 2-1 in series. That's just one example of in-game variance that allowed us to go 4-0. It is exactly as you describe in that we could have easily gone 0-4 too. Thanks for taking the time to write Cam. You get it.
Apr 17, 2017 16:41:37
Gotta play the Leafs in Games 3 & 4. They are +135 tonight and will be at least that much, maybe more, in Game 4. If we believe they are going to win the series, these 2 bets are no-brainers. A split can make us a tidy profit and if they don't split, they aren't coming back from 3-1.
Joel
That's actually some very good logic Joel. Thanks for writing and sharing.
Apr 16, 2017 12:27:09
Very nice call on the Leafs Brian. Keep up the great analysis.
Eddie
Thank you Eddie.
Apr 15, 2017 19:40:43
Hey Sherwood, I'm looking at taking the preds vs hawks game Under 5 goals +122. Any views on value there? Thanks.
SportsBettor159
You'll never hear me suggest taking under 5 in a hockey game, ever. If you like it, bet it but if both teams score twice, you cannot win.
Apr 15, 2017 11:32:42
I don't mean to hijack your comment wall Brian :) but I feel I have to comment on this WAS/TOR series again. Great write up for the game tonight, and I 100% agree. Again, Pinnacle likes the Leafs tonight. The proof is in the lines. The Leafs are down 1-0 in the series, which has ballooned the odds for them to win the series from +326 to +604. But wait a second, the ML for them to win tonight is currently sitting at +200. They lost Game 1 but the odds for them to win Game 2 is in the same ballpark as it was in Game 1?! The series price balloons +278 but the ML game odds stay the same? Clearly Pinnacle really likes the Leafs tonight.
RV
Apr 14, 2017 16:42:03
Well Brian, I was wrong. I will admit it, however, I believe my analysis was correct. It all came down to in game variance. The Leafs were fully capable of winning that game, and Pinnacle was on their side.
RV
Apr 13, 2017 14:57:39
Interesting how the Leafs are +326 to win the series on Pinnacle but only +205 on the ML tonight for Game 1. You compare that to NAS VS CHI where the series price is +152 for Nashville to win the series, and +150 ML to win Game 1. With those lines and as the Leafs are bigger underdogs on paper, they should be closer to +250 to +275 on the ML tonight. With all of the Washington hype of running over the Leafs, this line makes no sense. This kind of line tells me Pinnacle likes the Leafs tonight, and anyone betting on Washington should do so with real caution.
RV
Apr 12, 2017 14:11:02
Hey Brian, any thoughts about taking the Sens at home tonight? +118 OT Included seems like good value for the home team.
Chris
The Sens offer great value Chris but I would much rather bet them @ +160 for series than much a lesser amount in GAME1. Both are good though. My lean is series plays and updated series play. If Sens win, the series bet instantly has even more great value. If Sens lose, I'm still alive in the series bet and could even add a unit at probably +280 or so. If they look good in losing, that's a great option. Series bets gives us better options throughout so we'll see how it all plays out. Good luck.
Apr 11, 2017 15:39:01
Hi Brain, when are you doing the baseball seminar. Thnaks
Mike
I'll have it posted by next week at the latest Mike.
Apr 11, 2017 03:48:54
Great call on the Padres! Or should I say on your new intuitive, innovation and out of the box thinking concerning the Rockies and Coor's Field! Great idea, and it worked Monday for a nice payday! I am wondering what you will do with your 'buddy' Jered Weaver pitching for the Padres on Tuesday?!? Interesting conundrum for you! Keep up the great work!
Jeff
Thanks so much Jeff. As hard as it is for me to back Jered Weaver, it must be done because there is no thinking involved. You can't pick and choose. We'll have to plug our noses and hope for the best.
Apr 10, 2017 19:32:20
Brian: Have you backtested this Colo alt. runtime angle over a large sample?
Manny
Good question Manny and you'll have to be the judge yourself. I bet it all of last season as a tester and profited nearly 48 units on the year. Is that a small or large sample size? I would have to say small but large enough to put it out there this year and allow readers to make their own decision.
Apr 7, 2017 12:45:54
Any love for TB as a dog today. I think you backed Andriese many times last year with his great offspeed pitches. Tor loved to swing and miss last year. Thoughts?
TOR @ TB
There is no question that Tampa has a good chance to win today. It was very close to making my board. It's good value for sure and the only reason I didn't post it was because I liked my other 3 slightly better.
Apr 7, 2017 03:56:48
Dang, you know golf! I gained much knowledge from your informative Master's post. Thanks! I didn't get a chance to watch today but plan to this weekend. Just wondering after Day 1, do you have any new leans? You rock, man.
Brutus
Thanks Brutus, I think Henley is worth a bet at odds of 35-1 or thereabouts. Enjoy the rest of the event and best of luck!
Apr 4, 2017 16:35:59
Is betfair back up and running for Canadian customers?
Steve
No. Curious as to why you would ask that. Did you see or read something?
Apr 3, 2017 14:20:46
I'm surprised you aren't on the Orioles with Estrada pitching. Go Orioles
Michael
Orioles were favored and I didn't want to spot a price. I also knew that the air density levels were high meaning a heavy air and balls would not carry. I'll be targeting Estrada when the time is right.
Apr 2, 2017 21:58:41
Keep the pga tour picks coming. Great work breaking them down.
Jon
Thanks Jon
Apr 2, 2017 17:58:55
The RH pick was awesome but the tweets were even better...informative an hilarious..."vicious gash smash down the middle" ...CLASSIC. Thanx for a profitable and fun Sunday afternoon!
Jimmy
Thanks Jimmy. It was a fun afternoon for sure and I enjoyed tweeting out the "play by play"!!
Apr 2, 2017 15:25:17
Love the podcast t helps me in the winter when everyone I know is betting basketball ball while I bet hockey. Is there a possible time table for the MLB parlay webinar? Thanks for the hard work you do for all of us for free. Never pay for picks.... but sell 'em if you can!
TC in TX
I will have the MLB baseball parlay tutorial this week for sure TC. Best of luck and thanks for the kind words.
Apr 1, 2017 07:35:21
Thanks for posting the season total of Detroit Tigers Under Season Wins. I know you said there might be more to come. Since the season starts on Sunday, do you know if you will have anymore? If so, can you tell me so I can play them? I am a huge fan of your season totals in all sports.
John
There are a couple more that I like but not as much as the Tigers so I am not posting them. I prefer unders as oppose to going over a number but if you don't mind playing overs, I think KC is being sold a little short at 76.5 (depending on where you play) as that number is too low. The Phillies at 72.5 is also too low while the Dodgers may be a bit too high. I will post the Royals unofficially on my facebook page and provide a link to it on TWITTER but it will not be an official play. Just something else to read and consider. Good luck John and thanks for the kind words. https://www.facebook.com/Sportswagers/posts/1342739892473350
Mar 27, 2017 10:13:04
Hi Brian, big shoutout to you and all of the hard work you put in each and every day for FREE! I would like to ask you a question regarding bankroll. I have a bankroll of $1,000, betting usually 2 units each game which is $20 per game, and 2% of my bankroll. I am wondering, if let's say I go up to $1,200.00, do I start betting $24 per game, and likewise if I go down to say $700 would I start betting $14 per game? I am wondering at what point do you raise your unit betting, lower it, or ride it through at the same $20 wager? Wins and losses and fluctuate so much. Thanks - Rick.
Rick
Rick: Sorry I didn't respond earlier. What you should do is calculate your bankroll each day and then bet 2% of it on each play. If you are winning, the amount with increase on its own each day and if your bankroll is decreasing (losing). your bets will decrease on their own.
Mar 23, 2017 20:19:07
NHL futures looking great. Will uu have some MLB ones
Michael
Yes Michael, they will be posted this week beginning today (March 27).
Mar 22, 2017 12:01:09
Can you explain your logic for passing on TCU last night when the line moved from -7.5 to -8? I know I risk like sounding like a Monday morning QB but I don't see the risk in laying an extra half point if you've already done the investigation/research and came to the conclusion that TCU at -7.5 was the right play. When making a wager I would assume the diff between what you're perceiving vs. the actual line is greater than .5 point, and at worst you are pushing if it ends on 8. If you weren't going to wager unless it got to -7 that's another story, but seems silly to me to write all that up, only to pass over a half a point. For what it's worth I took TCU and thank you for the recommendation, keep it up!
Mike
Sure Mike.....It's not the half point that bothers me. It's that I missed the best number earlier in the day when I could have gotten it and that is the only reason I passed. I rarely play a bad number when I can help it and when I anticipate the line moving the opposite way. Glad you cashed and I hope this clarifies my position.
Mar 22, 2017 09:24:45
Sherwood, I have one word to describe you INTEGRITY! Over the years you post your analysis and win, lose or tie publish the results. What people don't realize is that on some of your selections when you post you may be laying 10 points. However things change and later the line has changed to 9 1/2 or even 9. This happened with Purdue twice this past month where you layed a number on your website and the line changed in your favor both times. However because you have INTEGRITY and both games ended on the number you posted you counted them as ties. There have been other occasions where you have counted a game as a loss when the posted number on your website is different than the number later in the day and the game has been a winner. Nobody does that and I appreciate your honesty and integrity. Again last night you didn't like the way the line was moving on the TCU game so you cancelled your pick. Even though they won and covered you won't count it as a win. You are first class and keep up the good work.
Greg
Thank You GREG! I appreciate the kind words very much and the time you took to write them. What all the frauds (touts) never understand is that the only way to change the game is to be 100% honest about what you're doing but they NEED money to survive and therefore lie to get it
Mar 20, 2017 21:07:30
Sherwood, it came down to the wire, that was a great pick (UCF). Great value as usual - that may be one of your top value picks in the last month. Any Dell match play picks coming? Jon
Jon
Thanks so much Jon. Dell Match Play picks will be posted on Wednesday.
Mar 19, 2017 20:48:28
yes, that was the article... thanks for the link! When I first started betting I was your typical sports fan who liked to bet on the better teams that I knew, typically the favourites. But coming across that article 5 years ago turned the light on and completely changed my philosophy and I can't even begin to describe what a difference it has made for me! I'm now about 80% dogs in NHL and MLB, any faves I do play on are done at -1 or -1.5 to bring the odds into my plus money zone... Just wanted to say thanks for writing that and would highly recommend it to any new bettors...
Reid
Thank you Reid. Your message made my day. Best of luck friend.
Mar 19, 2017 15:09:02
Hey Brian, I'm trying to remember if it was you that wrote an article about 10 years ago or so on the value of playing underdogs. It was something to the effect of if you bet 1000 games a year and were able to go 50/50 on those games with average line of +110, then you finish +50 units on the year... +120 = 100 units profit...etc.. Great picking and goodluck with the rest of the tourney
Reid
Of course Reid...so that article is in the "Betting advice" section titled Money Line Dogs are a Must Play". Here is the link to that article: http://www.sportswagers.ca/betting-advice/article.php?aID=3
Mar 19, 2017 11:04:37
To say that you're zoned in on these tournament games is an understatement. Yesterday's games went almost as though you had scripted them. Congrats.
Bubba
Thanks Bubba
Mar 19, 2017 01:25:06
Hey Woody, just wanted to take a moment to pump your tires and congratulate you on your Super Trifecta picks yesterday. You are literally crushing it with this seasons Hoops Madness picks! It was really nice outcomes to see and it couldn't have happened to a better guy who unselfishly gives so much to the betting public. Keep up the great work!
Dawg_Bets
Thanks so much for the kind words. They are greatly appreciated Dawg.
Mar 15, 2017 15:22:55
Hi Brian ... great work on here! Are you still sticking with the Flames tonight after Elliot ruled out? Thx
Jimmy
Indeed Jimmy. Johnson has been adequate for sure and Rask is sitting for Boston. It'll be Khodubin for the B's tonight.
Mar 12, 2017 18:22:21
Sherwood, been following your golf picks for the past month and you have been so close in three of four weeks. It's incredible how u break it down and find one longshot every week that is in the hunt. It's been exciting to watch, great fun to bet and you nailed it this week with Hadwin. Thanks for sharing and for the time you put into doing the research. It is greatly appreciated. i had $15 to win on Hadwin and couldn't be happier. Thanks again.
Rick
You are welcome Rick. Thanks for letting me know and for taking the time to send a note.
Mar 12, 2017 18:09:55
Only my third time watching golf and I took your pick for 1000 bucks. Thank you sir. Incredible game!
Carlos
Nice hit Carlos and you're welcome. So glad you won.
Mar 11, 2017 21:48:44
Win or lose tomorrow, great pick on Hadwin.
Barry M
Thank you Barry.
Mar 8, 2017 20:22:54
Hey guys, Been following for years and can't thank you enough for the great work. You honesty and professionalism is second to none and I've made a crapload of money with your picks (especially NCAA) over the years. Your latest PGA picks have made golf fun again and if I hit a big one I'll split it with you. ;) Anyone with negative comments here should shop at the pay sites. Cheers
Jason
Thanks so much for the kind words Jason. Personally, I'm enjoying golf so much as well and hopefully we'll finish the deal with one of our picks soon. Thanks again friend and best of luck always.
Mar 7, 2017 12:56:31
TB now 80-1 betcris/bookmaker/DSI. And after dominating Rags...
marcbryanjacob
Gotta hope they get in and then anything can happen, especially with their goaltending and if Stamkos comes back strong. Thanks for heads up MBJ.
Mar 6, 2017 11:22:09
hi Brian. This might be a basic question, but i hope you can explain things to me. On Sunday you had an NHL pick of CALGARY -½ OT included +122. Isn't this the same as betting Calgary on the moneyline? Calgary was the favorite, so how did you get a line over +100? I hope this question makes sense.
Dave O
No Dave, it is just an oversight on my part. -½ +122 should have been written as a REGULATION BET ONLY because when you are spotting a half puck, regulation is the only option. It was just a mistake on my part. Your question makes complete sense. Sorry about the misunderstanding
Mar 5, 2017 13:07:14
Brian what is your opinion on fading the Avalanche every game for the remainder of the season? They have what maybe three wins left in their system. Seems like dollar signs to me.
Eph
If it were only that easy. Looks like a great idea but it means spotting heavy juice almost every game and praying that they stay just as cold. If I were to take that approach, I would be spotting a half puck every game instead of the heavy juice. Personally, I wouldn't do it but don't let that stop you from betting what you trust will be a profitable angle. The risk is too great for a value bettor like myself and you may have missed the boat on that angle. Whatever you do, I hope it works out.
Mar 1, 2017 15:32:27
Nice heads up on the TBBolts. 2 places have them 55: 5dimes.eu unibet.com Just picked up Streit for Flipuoff!
Marc Bryan Jacob
Feb 28, 2017 18:59:47
Hi Brian, thanks for the ingame tutorial blog. Any other strategies other than pointspreads?. Totals, moneylines stuff like that
Mike
You are welcome Mike and I will be running other tutorials on totals and ML betting in the near future so stay tuned.
Feb 28, 2017 18:31:19
Why did you abandon going against teams coming off their rest week ??
Ice
Many teams last week were not flat. Columbus, Chicago, and some others too. I think that angle was so well documented that players and coaches started preparing better for it in anticipation of a lethargic effort. I wanted to see how teams' did this week before continuing the attack.
Feb 27, 2017 12:02:07
I know he didn't win, but Bryan made a good run @ it. I enjoyed the tourney, wouldn't have turned it on w/o that bet..... Thanks!
@robberj24
Feb 24, 2017 08:55:37
Question about money management during streaks. Do you press a little when you are in a hot streak like you are now? Likewise do you back off a bit when in a cold streak? Streaks happen and once you recognize you are in one it pays to take advantage of the good and save a little when it's bad. Thanks for all your hard work and I enjoy your insights every day.
Greg
Yes Greg, I do. That is smart money management and comes highly recommended. I keep it simple on my site to avoid numerous emails asking why I'm up to 2.4 units for instance or down to 1.6 units....Both winning and losing streaks are inevitable. Thanks for the kind words and support too.
Feb 19, 2017 23:37:47
You almost sweeped! Good calls tonight. You think your bye week theory is over?
Carlos
The "bye week" theory became a hot topic of conversation in the media as this past week wore on because teams coming off it had lost 12 in a row. What that did was prompt coaches and players to be aware of it. It's a new thing and much like when 3 on 3 started, teams will make adjustments on how to prepare better. It's still a small sample size so we'll see how it plays out and we'll act accordingly. There were a bunch of teams that came off it this past weekend that were not flat but simply lost so adjustments have already started.
Feb 19, 2017 07:33:59
You just made me $35,000!!!! Parlayed NHL teams coming off they\'re bi weeks. Big Thanks!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! You rock! (I forgive you for the super bowl pick) Keep it up;)
David
Nice David but I didn't make you anything. You pulled the trigger and put up the cash while all I did was recommend some plays but I understand what you're saying. ENJOY friend and thanks for letting me know.
Feb 18, 2017 23:10:38
Great NHL picks tonight Brian. You really nailed it. I took it a step further and put together a 5 team parlay fading all the teams coming off the bye. It paid out at odds close to +5000. Great night. Thanks again.
Dave O
Very cool Dave. Great hit. Thanks for letting us know. Keep it going
Feb 17, 2017 18:29:15
Nice call on Arizona last night
Iggy
Thanks man
Feb 17, 2017 09:51:48
Great angle Teams off the bye week. Zona no sweat win +200. do you think books will wise up. Tonight colorado is +200 over carolina.
Michael
It's still a very small sample size Michael so the books need not adjust just yet. If it carries on for the remainder of this year and into next year, you may see a slight adjustment. Go Avs!
Feb 16, 2017 08:36:34
The math behind all of the hockey plays make sense, people just need to actually read what is happening and not freak out like children when they think have caught their publisher in a lie. There is no conspiracy, and youre not brilliant for finding a flaw in the system. With that being said: the theory that laying -1.5 in hockey is extraordinary value is completely false. There have been pucklines out for decades, and they remain out there and appear 'inflated'... yet the odds always reamin extra appealing. Your record on these by two or mores is brutal, and the idea that there is value there is an idea which misleads the masses. If it was such a great betting angle, the books would adjust them to change the profitability of the bettor. As the season wears down, the games get tighter, and we see more 3 point games in March the any other month. The idea that sticking to these will yield returns is ridiculous. You may get lucky and hit a streak, but the odds are stacked against you, and that hole is much more likely to get bigger. In a podcast earlier on, you daid these two sentences in the same topic: "Stick to what you do and trust the process, dont change your angle becuase of a few bad results", followed closely by: " Einstein defined insanity as doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results". Its been very bad year+, maybe its time to listen to your second statement. Please continue with the fantastic podcasts/webinars/and betting coloumns, they are truly part of my everyday life. Lets turn this around! Your friend,
Tom
Tom: Thanks for some constructive criticism that makes a lot of sense. Games being tighter in late February and March are some great points among others that you pointed out and I appreciate you taking the time to write and remind me of that. Best of luck to you too and I will certainly take what you said into consideration.
Feb 15, 2017 21:59:09
Sorry an example I'll use is the leafs are 1 unit for 382 and 1 unit for 152 to me that's a two unit total play for a win of 544 units. I don't know how own you get 7 plus unit return on that play.
Steve
Steve, forget what the writeup says it pays. That is figuring it in as a two unit play @ -1½ +382. It's an automated system of which I have no control over. Pay more attention to the results afterward, as I update it to reflect the true bet of 1 unit each way.
Feb 15, 2017 15:58:48
Sherwood your numbers on return are way off on your hockey plays. It makes 0 sense. You pride yourself on honesty and integrity and your letting your fans down. Fix the returns on your plays because there's way to much of a return.
Steve
Can you be specific? Where are my numbers off. Incidentally, when they are off or an error is made, I get numerous emails pointing it out but yours is the only one I have received regarding this the last few days. Thanks Steve.
Feb 14, 2017 12:01:19
Hey Brian. Great job on the Coyotes pick. You are really on to something with teams coming off the bye. Thanks for have the foresight to know this would be a HUGE factor this NHL season. Dave O
Dave
Thanks Dave.
Feb 14, 2017 08:05:10
Keep fudging the numbers Sherwood, you need it! Arizona for 6 plus units come on.
Hateraid
Yeah, cause I have nothing better to do and have suddenly after 16 years of posting plays decided that yesterday would be the perfect time to "fudge" numbers. Read the write-up fool. http://www.sportswagers.ca/nhl/picks.php?pid=18808
Feb 14, 2017 00:23:16
Bravo on the Coyotes pick! I've been riding the 'bye' train along with you thanks to your spot on analysis of the angle. Been a daily reader for nearly 7 years. Much, much respect. Keep doing what you do brother!
Mark H.
Thanks so much Mark.
Feb 12, 2017 10:56:01
How did you not lose units on SD pick?
Manny
I did lose units and updated it. No need to freak out, it was just an oversight.
Feb 9, 2017 01:54:51
The Patriots offence scored 4 unanswered TDs and went from being a Brady protection nightmare to marching up and down the field at will in the 4th quarter. I know it might be tough to wrap your head around as an ATL backer, but this game has much to do with the hoodies 2nd half adjustments as the Falcons throwing up on themselves.
Bretzky
If that's the way you see it, I'm not going to dispute it. Perception is reality and ours differ. That's what makes for good conversation. What I saw was three stooges (Quinn, Ryan and Shanahan) making a series of the worst decisions in the history of sports. 49,999 coaches would have had that game locked up but these three idiots decide to pass instead of running it three times, killing clock and hitting a FG to make it an 11-point lead with 4 minutes left. The Hoodies adjustments had nothing to do with that.
Feb 9, 2017 01:40:27
Another great podcast Brian, keep the good work.
Mike
Thank you Mike.
Feb 1, 2017 23:18:28
Thanks again for putting on the webinar. It was time well spent. Can`t wait for the next one!
Kelly in Calgary
You're welcome Kelly. Glad you could make it and I appreciate the time you took to write. See you next time!
Feb 1, 2017 13:08:10
I won't be able to attend the live webinar tonight. Are you planning on posting the webinar on sportswagers after the fact like you did with the NBA Betfair ones last year? That would be great if you could since I'm sure a lot of us would like to access the informaion if we missed the live webinar.
Jason
Jason: I was planning on recording it and posting it but unfortunately I forgot to record it. It went well with a good turnout so I will be running another one really soon and I'll record it and post it.
Feb 1, 2017 12:33:19
I'm interested in doing the Webinar tonight. May I do it on my iPad? Thanks, Marh
Mark
I'm not sure, please let me know if you were able to.
Jan 25, 2017 02:04:06
Bucks are a -11 1/2 favorite against 76ers tonight at Pinny. Sixers are 7 out of last 10 and were a 8.5 dog a couple games back at the Bucks and won straight up. Sixers came back last night after being down 19 to the Clips Seems odd after that they are 3 points higher tonight. Are Sixers a trap? Thanks Sherwood
David
I do not know if that's a trap David but all I can say is to trust your instincts. You make some valid points so always go with your gut when you're not sure. Best of luck man. It'll be interesting to see how it plays out.
Jan 24, 2017 16:47:09
Really looking forward to the Webinar. Thanks for putting it together. Much appreciated
Dave
You are very welcome Dave. I look forward to seeing you there.
Jan 22, 2017 14:56:07
I thought Packers moneyline at +205 was great value and played it. The game is pretty much a pick em in my mind. Best of luck and......Go Pats!
Magus
As it turns out Magus, the Packers were a disaster waiting to happen. We failed to pick up on that too.
Jan 20, 2017 23:04:56
Another great podcast Brian, look forward to the webinar.
Mike
Thanks for saying so Mike
Jan 20, 2017 10:45:11
I was wondering if you wager 1 unit in your "in game" plays (football, hockey, etc) or do you cut back to half a unit? On another note, I have followed you since back when you first started this site. I absolutely love the podcasts and you give a wealth of free information. Keep up the great work and THANK YOU for your years of SPORTS WAGERING contributions!
Jason
You're welcome Jason. Thank you for the kind words and the time you took to send a message. I don't have a standard wager when it comes to in-game wagering. I'll cover all of that in my upcoming webinar and in this week's podcast. There are variables always at work so it's all a matter of what you are comfortable with and what opportunities the market presents us with. Again, I'll cover all that in this week's podcast and in next week's webinar. Cheers.
Jan 17, 2017 11:37:00
Pinnacle is a great resource/sportsbook, however they do not accept players from the USA, same with BET365. Is there anyway around that pretty large hurdle?
Dan
Unfortunately Dan, there is no way around it that I know of. Perhaps an agent (someone you know) in Canada could open an account for you and you make the bets. You would have to get a Canadian IP address but that's easy enough to do. The other issues with that are all withdrawals and deposits have to go through your agent. It's not the best solution but if you know someone well enough in Canada (or Europe), it can be done. Best of luck.
Jan 15, 2017 11:12:15
Awesome jobs recently in college hoops. I always check your picks out. Thanks.
Mark
You are welcome Mark. Thanks for writing.
Jan 12, 2017 17:18:18
Thanks Brian, that is indeed unusual and have been looking for those situations but only for about 3 weeks. I am indeed going with the Canes small to see how plays out. Going with that trend for the mentioned 3 weeks has had an unbelievable winning %. I will also play Colorado small in cbb which falls under the same reasoning/system/logic. Finding the % of bets vs the % of dollars however has been my biggest challenge. If you know of somewhere they are posted for free please let me know. Lets see if this has been pure luck or if there is something there to look at. I will conitnue monitoring this kind of info for sure in the meantime. Thanks
JR
Jan 12, 2017 16:20:33
Hey Brian, as reading the lines is a huge part of betting, I would like to have your take on the example here: #TheU is receiving 38% of bets but 60% of dollars. Miami has moved from -2.5 to -4.5 vs #NotreDame. What does this tell you and which way would you lean if you had to not taking any other factors but the line itself. Thanks, enjoy reading your write ups every single day.
JR
Thanks JR. The example you provided is a an unusual one because Notre Dame is taking more action in bets but the Hurricanes are taking the serious money. I am always weary when the "market" is leaning towards a dog because that, too is rare so therefore I would be taking Miami -4.5 if I had to. Hope this helps and now I'll be interested to see what happens. If you do step in, please let me know which way you went. Peace.
Jan 11, 2017 23:41:42
What a disgusting display Winnipeg put on tonight against Montreal. The coach needs to go, players are not responding to him.
Mike
I paid the price for backing Winnipeg too Mike. They can't be bet when they're favored, as their goaltending is unstable and Maurice won't commit to one guy. That team remains an enigma.
Jan 8, 2017 21:06:58
Puck unluck...Love your pod casts...Betting value more...Hope you guys the best in 2017 and baseball can't come soon enough...
Jason
Thanks so much Jason
Jan 8, 2017 12:32:29
Raptors may not have legs to shoot or defend late in the game today, so thinking of laying the 2.5 with Houston. OT game last night and 6PM start today doesn't hurt the cause either.
Magus
Jan 6, 2017 16:46:20
Hello, Brian. How come your NBA picks are so few and far between? On the other hand, you keep picking NHL games on daily basis, although you say hockey is a game in which luck has the most influence on the final outcome. Don't you get sick when luck doesn't go your way so many times? Just trying to understand you better, love reading your NFL blog!
Serbian
It's rather simple Serbian....After years of trying, I have never had success in the NBA while having great success in the other sports. I do bet NBA LIVE and will run a webinar on that soon. The NHL on the other hand is a sport I have had great success in and that "puck Luck" and parity means frequent winners taking back prices. I appreciate the support and the time you took to write.
Jan 6, 2017 13:01:44
Another great podcast Brian. Keep up the good work.
Mike
Thank you Mike
Dec 27, 2016 10:19:57
Am I crazy trying to make sense of why Minnesota is a 6 pt fav to mich at at home tonight? I get mich St is not the powerhouse they normally are, but have still played much tougher competition with minn playing a bunch of cupcakes and Florida st, their only loss which I remember being a gross backdoor cover. Please tell me mich St is a play outright tonight?
Mike
You are not crazy Mike. We've faded Minnesota a bunch of times this year. State holds tremendous value so trust your instincts! Go MSU!
Dec 22, 2016 13:58:39
I'm curious and kind of surprised actually that your not all over the Wild tonight. They've won 8 straight and have been just dominant recently. The Habs are in a look ahead spot. They play in Columbus tomorrow for the first time since that disturbing 10-0 defeat and if Columbus still has their streak going how badly do you think they want to be the team to snap it. If the habs even so much as blink tonight thinking about tomorrow, the Wild will be all over them in every single area of the ice. Your better goaltender theory can't be used in this spot because dubnyk is as solid as they come. Price is the best but if he had a challenger, gotta believe this is it. 8 straight on the road in MTL in a look ahead spot for the home team, please tell me you seen something that made you pass on this especially with a decent tag.
Eric
The media is billing tonight's game, Dubnyk v. Price as a classic so there is plenty of excitement for sure. Thing is Eric, Minnesota has not been dominant at all. They are not "ALL OVER" anyone. They get badly outplayed on most nights and the only reason they're winning is because of Dubnyk. Not saying Montreal will win but I will say that Montreal will very likely outplay them. Your theory about playing in C-Bus tomorrow does have some validity though for sure. Montreal has lost just twice at home all year and therefore I want more than 15 cents to back this overvalued dog.
Dec 20, 2016 10:32:16
While it worked out last night, your Pinnacle logic is nonsensical. Nobody hits better than 55% so I wouldn't go completely opposite your opinion just because Pinny has it a half point higher. Without interviewing the bookmaker, there is no way of knowing his reasons for doing so on each game - might just be overloaded by a big whale on the other side, for example. I respect your opinion almost all of the time but this one is silly. Why not see where they are a point higher in volleyball and curling and bet that, since they are so sharp?
Dan
Duly noted Dan and you're right, without direct knowledge from the sportsbook itself, there is no way of really knowing for sure. However, RARELY is said sportsbook higher priced on a favorite. Studying lines and movements is something I've been doing for 15 years (on the internet) and I can assure you that they are usually lower and not higher on point-spread favorites. I wouldn't dismiss it as nonsensical because I take this stuff very seriously and wouldn't have mentioned it on my site or podcast if it was a small sample size. Indeed yesterday's game worked out but that was just one game. Follow it for a year and we'll revisit the topic then. I appreciate your feedback and the time you took to write.
Dec 18, 2016 11:59:39
Hello Brian, Do you see any value in taking Chicago at home tonight over San Jose? Chicago as a dog at home against anyone strikes me as an odd move. Is this where one does not go against Pinnacle? Best, - John.
John
I think you hit the nail on the head John...not to go against Pinnacle. The Sharkies have a great history over the past few years too on these extended road trips. Most importantly, I don't go against Pinny if I can help it. Good eye there and trust your instincts, always.....Best of luck!
Dec 13, 2016 11:38:07
All week I was thinking of playing the Ravens.....I'm happy that I read your write-up beforehand. At -6, the Pats were the play if you were to play it atl all, and they should have won by much more than 7 as well. I had a decent 2-teamer with that Pens PL walk-over game that brightened up my Lost Wages vacation. I pick my spots when betting and your insight is one more tool I use when deciding if I play or pass on a day of wagers. Thanks for your continued work.
Magus
You're welcome Magus and thank you for taking the time to let me know. Happy Holidays!
Dec 11, 2016 00:41:58
Figured I'd let you know how my day went on the college hardwood, i lost the Bonnie's ML to a buzzer beater fade away jumper with the defender all up in Ingram's grill & then in a battle of titans between Rider & Pacific, I lost due in large part to a 5 mins scoreless drought but somehow just needed one point & Rider missed the back end of a one & one with no time left. So basically if the made & miss shots would of been reversed I would of had a perfect 4-0 day instead 2-2. I made one mistake and that's I didn't get the o138.5 I waited it out & settled for o139.5 which just goes to show having the best of the # just adds one more plus on getting that edge we grind day in and day out for. In game variance sometime will never be able to predict, back at it tomorrow. Let's grade those wagers on the grid iron. Your a class act, kudos Sherwood
-110
Your day can be repeated by almost every single bettor out there. Just change the teams and 90% of all games come down to in-game variance, which is why I'll stress playing value until the day I die. It was gracious of you to take the time to write and I really appreciate the kind words. Let's find some clear cut winners today! Best of luck, -110.
Dec 8, 2016 16:53:25
Hey guys, if you have the time can you shed some light on the Flyers tonight? I'm curious as to what you think about their current run and if you see any value backing them at home tonight perhaps In regulation only. They're kinda confusing at times but overall to me, they appear to be a team that has it all coming together. But twice on this streak they were brutally outshot and outplayed but found a way to win. The other 4 wins came as a result of strong play and the shots were either equal or favoring Philly. They have wins over Chicago, Nashville, Calgary, Boston, Ottawa and Florida. Impressive to say the least. With McDavid in town tonight I can't see them taking the Oilers lightly like they probably did against the Panthers. What do you think? Is this line too good to be true?
E
E.....I never like to take anyone off of a game. If you think it's a good line in your favor, bet it. Personally, I would not give the Oilers a half puck because they are actually better at everything than the Flyers and they're probably in a foul mood after blowing the last game. In my opinion, the game is priced right but I have a slight lean to the Oilers. I also don't trust Mason, although he's hot right now. That bubble of his could burst at any time and I don't want to be stuck spotting a half goal or a price on Philly when it inevitably does burst.
Dec 7, 2016 16:45:21
Great call on New Jersey Tech yesterday. Simply beautiful brother. Keep up the great work and appreciate when you find hidden gems like NJ Tech or more importantly, statistical imposters like Minnesota. Awesome job
Sarb
Thanks so much Sarb for the kind words and taking the time to send them.
Dec 7, 2016 11:27:29
Hi Brian, just wondering why you don't play the NBA more? No value?
Mike
Albert Einstein said insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. The NBA has been a sport I have never been able to beat despite using the same strategies as I do for college hoops or any other sport. It is for that reason that we're being very selective Mike. It's a process and while we're confident in the games we bet, we're taking it slow before stepping it up. There is of course value in every sport if you do your homework and find an edge in the number.
Dec 6, 2016 23:24:46
Great pick on Flames, lookout for this team. After a slow start under a new coach and a complete change of style of playing, they will be good, and Chad Johnson is the real deal, check out his record in Buffalo.. All you stats guys will fall over him
TOM
Thanks Tom. Calgary has to be thrilled they picked Johnson up to back up Brian Elliott. As it turns out, Elliott is now the backup and it's completed warranted. These Flames with good goaltending are rock solid.
Dec 3, 2016 19:00:37
I have to ask, this is coming just before puck drop so I know you won't be able to respond prior to Game time but the odds on leafs and canucks game are mind boggling to me. At least one sports book has the Leafs at -160 on the road where they are 2-6-4 against a team out seeking revenge. That is a little high no??? I understand the Leafs being favored in this spot but slight favorites at best! That is absurd. Does this not point to these books suggesting they believe the Leafs are going to win and want Canucks money or is there just that money coming in on the Leafs?
Eric
Dec 2, 2016 06:34:56
I am mostly interested in the nfl, i read all your posts and your conments are almost Always on the money. Great pick on minny last nite.dave
Dave
I appreciate that Dave. Thanks
Dec 1, 2016 17:55:41
Looks like the Vikings starting center is out and the head coach had last minute eye surgery. I liked the Vikings, but now a little cautious. Let's see if line moves.
Jon
Dec 1, 2016 10:44:26
Great work Brian. UP a few units this year based on your analysis
Andy
Thank you Andy. I love to hear about people winning money and I'm thrilled that some of our strategies have worked out for you. Besides, money won is so much sweeter than money earned.
Dec 1, 2016 09:18:33
Another great podcast Brian, keep up the good work
Mike
Thank you so much Mike. I appreciate the support and the time you took to write.
Nov 28, 2016 16:37:11
Long time reader Sherwood,,,,,thanks for keeping this site free and never asking for anything in return. Anyone that doesn't learn something from all your experience and great information is a fool. I don't follow you blindly but your site has been an important part of my daily routine for years and I just wanted to take a moment to let you know how much I appreciate your site and the time you put into it.
Kaz
Thank you for acknowledging the work and time I put into it Kaz. Your message made my day.
Nov 28, 2016 16:01:30
Hey Brian, kudos for your sweep on the college grid iron as well as a solid performance on the pro one as well ! Other than myself, your the only other person I look to for advice. All these touts & services are just like you say pure scum. All you really need is to take time to dig deeper than surface stats & make sure you always get the best of the #. I am a big believer in metrics & analytics and use them thoroughly to make my wager official. I find they work mostly on the college side, pro sports tend to be a lot more precise. The one sport I cannot stand though is hockey, I'll tail you from time to time & have noticed that regardless the metrics, the edge in nets or the situational spot a team may be in, the right side doesn't grade the wager. I'm thinking of just abandoning it as a whole, with college fball & cbk as well as MLB that pretty much covers action year round ! Thoughts ? As always great work here, your a class act & I appreciate the time & passion you put forth !
Anon
Hey, thanks so much for the kind words. I really appreciate the time you took to write..... It's funny, I was just talking to my podcast partner Matt about the NHL and said it's the most frustrating sport to bet on because you get plenty of games every week where a team dominates and loses outright because of goaltending. It is without question the most luck-driven sport out there but that also means we can use it to our advantage by playing undervalued dogs at great prices. You just have to keep going with "the best of it". Still, if you are not profiting and it's hurting your bottom line, by all means abandon it completely. I wish you the best of luck and again, I truly do appreciate the kind words.....Peace!
Nov 27, 2016 11:48:45
Morning Brian, Just wanted to say great College Football picks last night, especially hitting that Vanderbilt game!!! I just read your blog post about the TEN@CHI game. The line has since moved to CHI +6 (-106 Pinnacle). Do you see any value in taking Chicago since the line has moved up 1.5 points since your blog? Also wanted to say, I really enjoy your podcast. It is truly nice to see that you take time out of your personal life to do these podcasts and these daily write ups. Sending good karma your way bud! Thank You.
SportsBettor159
I do think there is great value on the Bears SB. Lots of talk about how the Bears have quit has also influenced this number. Tennessee is just not good enough to be favored on the road in this range. Best of luck and thanks so much for the kind words and support.
Nov 20, 2016 10:26:23
Hey Brian, just thought I would share my NHL pick for today, as I see real value here. Columbus @ Washington. Pick: Columbus OT Included Moneyline +171 (Pinnacle) The Jackets are 7-2-1 in their last 10 and are riding a 3 game winning streak. Those victories were against the Blues, Caps, and Rangers. They are a talented team, and recently defeated the Rangers this week. The Jackets have been underrated and have been flying under the radar. Bobrovsky is having a great season so far: 9-4-1 with a 2.20 GAA and a .932 Save %. Columbus' defense has been super stingy this year allowing an average of 2.33 goals against per game. The offense is also a bright point scoring an average of 3.40 goals per game. Columbus played these same Caps at home last week and edged out a 2-1 OT victory. Although the goalies are not confirmed at the time of this write up, it is probable that it will be Holtby vs Bobrovsky. Although Washington is a tough team to beat at home, Columbus is decent on the road posting a 2-2-2 record. I feel the value here is too good to pass up, and this should be a good close game.
SportsBettor159
Very nice SB.
Nov 16, 2016 14:01:09
Hey Brian, I just noticed what appears to be an overreaction on the Penguins @ Capitals game. Before Matt Murray was confirmed to start, the line was PIT +105 WAS -115 OT included ML. Now the line has moved to PIT -110, WAS -100. Holtby vs Murray should be a good battle, but when was the last time we saw Washington in this position at home? I would argue that Holtby is still the better goalie. Although the Caps played last night on the road, I still believe this is an overreaction. Also WAS in regulation on the ML is listed at +101. Any thoughts? Thanks.
SportsBettor159
You're right, the Caps at home should not be a dog to Pittsburgh even though they always have trouble with them. Indeed, there may be an overreaction but if so, it is a very slight one. Puck line says Caps will not lose in regulation so If I was betting it, I would play Caps in regulation only. It's a tough game to call.
Nov 16, 2016 13:53:40
Hi! First of all, gratz on last nights picks. Secondly I would like to ask you about the line for the Saints@Panthers game. If I remeber good the Saints were +6.5 @Chiefs. The Chiefs were+3 @Panthers Now the Saints are+3(but opened as +4)@Panthers. I see a big difference here. What is more, earlier in the season the Panthers were a -3 fav @NO. Could you please give any comment about this lines? Thanks a lot! Big fan of your picks Bart!
OvO
Thank you OvO. Things change from week to week in the NFL. Carolina's stock was very high to begin the year so you can't compare Week 2 Carolina to Week 10 Carolina. This line suggests that the Chiefs and Saints are about equal and frankly, that assessment is not too far off. The line, Carolina -3½ over New Orleans for Thursday seems about right to me.
Nov 16, 2016 09:17:35
Kudos to a perfect 8 for 8 last night! Here is to hoping this is the start of the turn around after a rough year. Cheers!
SportsBettor159
Thanks very much SB
Nov 16, 2016 07:06:15
Thanks! Just came back from Vegas and won $5000 on your NHL picks. Did all 5 of your NHL picks on a parlay Tuesday night and won $7200 on a $100 bet. You rock!
Dynamic
You're welcome. I always love hearing about big wins and I'm so happy you were able to cash. Thanks for writing man.
Nov 10, 2016 13:43:33
In reference to your Hurricanes write up, do you believe that sharp price on the Ducks may be mostly due to the Ducks playing a back to back and going the distance in overtime last night? I know the market puts a lot of emphasis on that stuff. I liked the Canes today as well but I'm a bit skeptical as to whether that line is encouraging Ducks money or is just due to the Ducks on a back to back.
Eric
Eric, back-to-backs influence the number for sure. We see it with the Jackets tonight and we see examples of it all the time. However, this one is more about Pinnacle's position in that they were/are staying higher than everyone else. To me, that's telling so this is a wager based on Pinny's position.
Nov 9, 2016 19:17:52
I was on Vancouver for games 3 thru 9 of their 9 game losing streak because of the value as underdogs, they were still playing hard, outshooting teams and losing a lot of close games, of course I finally lay off them as +275 dogs to the Rangers and they win that one... go figure, been one of those years for me. Did you ever find another exchange for NBA games? I sure miss that, made the NBA so much more entertaining to follow lol..
Wade
I agree Wade, exchange betting is exciting and profitable. Hopefully, an exchange will be available to Americans and Canadians soon.
Nov 8, 2016 13:52:10
Hey Brian, Do you see any value in taking the Oilers tonight +188 @ PIT?
Chris
Chris, I had the Oilers all written up...... Edmonton +165 over PITTSBURGH OT included. There is no question that the Penguins are the class of the league right now and there is also no question that Sidney Crosby is not quite ready to pass over the proverbial torch to Connor McDavid just yet. One has to figure that the arena will lively in anticipation of a Crosby/McDavid showdown. However, the Penguins return home from a four-game trip that ended with the last three games being on the West Coast. Pittsburgh won three of four on said trip and scored five goals in each victory. However, the Pens only managed 27, 23 and 25 shots on net in three of the four games and were outshot by the Flyers 42-27. The Penguins are winning but it’s not as impressive as the record suggests. The Penguins are still a great team but they have nothing to prove and in a Tuesday night game in November, they’re overpriced against a team that has plenty to prove. Pittsburgh will also feature the second best goaltender when Marc Andre Fleury and his .903 save % squares off against Cam Talbot’s .925 save %. In this league, when you have the superior goaltender, you always have a chance to win. Edmonton is no longer an easy out. Here’s a team with one of the best records in the league at 9-3-1 that is taking back a rather serious price tag. Only Toronto and Philadelphia have recorded more shots on net than the Oilers. The Oilers have won back-to-back games after a three game losing streak and they conclude their five-game trip here. They were exhausted when they played Detroit on Sunday afternoon but with a full days’ rest and the opportunity to play the Penguins, expect Edmonton to be recharged and ready to go. When a price like this is being offered on the dangerous Oil, we are going to bite often and make no exceptions here......But then I saw Murray was in goal and he's 2-0 with one goal allowed. Pitt has outscored opposition 10-1 when Murray is in goal so I passed....That said, I don't want to take you off a game you like. If your gut and instincts say play it, by all means do....Best of luck...
Nov 6, 2016 20:45:29
Just wanted to say that despite the brutal year you are having, you are honest and display the record for all to see. Unlike all the Lock of the day touts. Maybe Sherwood, you should run for the Presidency of the USA. I know your slump will end and things will turn around
TOM
I appreciate the kind words Tom. The only way to remain credible is to be 100% honest about this business and not ask for anything. My platform is transparent and free and will remain so for as long as I keep doing this.
Nov 4, 2016 15:12:57
Hi sher, u like any ponies at the breeders cup,. All the best JB
JB
I haven't had a good look yet JB. If I have any ponies tomorrow, I will tweet them out..... @sportswagers3
Nov 3, 2016 19:44:36
Listened to your latest podcast, great job Brian. Keep them coming.
Name
Thanks very much for the support.
Nov 2, 2016 23:23:42
Brian, you know how you mention "in game variance" ? Well I just watched none other than Rajai Davis smack one into left field to tie the game. This isn't on Chapman, if the Cubs lose this series, this is on Maddon period. Chapman is beyond gassed and you bring him in, in the 8th inning? Idiot. Anyway, back to in game variance, this is a great example of how anything can happen. I'm afraid that after tonight, Joe Maddon will be the most hated guy in Chicago, and Steve Bartman will be able to emerge into society once again.
SportsBettor159
Joe Maddon dodged a serious bullet for the way he managed the last two games of that series. Boy, did he get lucky.
Nov 1, 2016 14:04:44
Very interesting write up on the Leafs game, as I saw value in taking Edmonton. However, your points make perfect sense, curious to see how this game turns out. Something is definitely up with the Leafs being a -115 favourite against a team like Edmonton...
SportsBettor159
And there you have it.
Oct 30, 2016 11:32:09
Great call on the Wyoming Cowboys! They win outright (as you predicted) on a late safety! I was busy preparing to get to a wedding, and I wasn't going to bet at all....but I read your write-up, and you convinced me to back Wyoming with a few units....I blindly followed you (which I never have done before), and we went directly to the cashiers window! Thanks, and great call.....Keep up the great work!
Jeff
Thank you Jeff.
Oct 29, 2016 20:05:01
Great play at +750 for Esks to win grey cup, Championship team and if they cross over or not, it is possible for sure. Interesting stat with Calgary, they went 15 and 3, three years and did not win the grey cup. All time record holder was the 89 Eskimos, who went 16 and 2, and they also did not win the grey cup.
TOM
Thanks Tom. I'm really hoping the Eskies crossover and then the wager has SO much value. But like you said, it has value either way with such a short path to the Championship game.
Oct 24, 2016 09:19:08
Hi Sherwood. Nice to see this weekend treated us better in terms of being in the black and in game variance. Look at that Buffalo Miami game. I would like to share my pick for tonight, as I believe there is good value on this game. Calgary Flames @ Chicago Blackhawks. OVER 5.5 TOTAL -100 (Pinnacle) Chicago is tied for 1st for the most goals for in the league, and they have the firepower to pot quite a few in, especially against a Calgary team, which leads the league in goals against. Brian Elliott has not yet found his groove, and having said that, the Blackhawks, are also letting in a lot of goals this year. The Blackhawks are right behind the Flames for Goals against. Corey Crawford and Scott Darling have been nothing special to start this season. Calgary also has the ability to score a few goals, as they have a talented number of players. This sounds like a perfect recipe for a shootout, run and gun type of game.
SportsBettor159
Thanks SB-159. You make some good points.
Oct 23, 2016 22:08:39
Great job nailing 3 out of 4 on your NFL card. Opting for the + money instead of laying taking the points. Just goes to show how irrelevant the point spread is 75% of the time ! Keep up the good work,
Karl
Thanks Karl. Hopefully that will jump start things around here. It's been a rough few months but we just have to stick with it and the results will follow. Thanks so much for writing!
Oct 21, 2016 12:30:59
Oregon down to -1 may have pulled the trigger a little too early on Cal minus the FG !
Karl
I didn't see that coming Karl and while it's always best to get the best number, some things are unforeseen. That said, with a total of 89½ on the game, It is highly unlikely that those two points will make a difference. GO CAL!
Oct 20, 2016 19:03:18
You find anything comparable to Betfair's Exchange betting?
Jazz
No Jazz. I would assume that a "sports exchange" will be inevitably available in Canada at some point by somebody. It may be a year or two or three but it's coming.
Oct 19, 2016 14:02:18
I'm curious to know why your not jumping all over the Leafs tonight with decent value on them. Winnipeg is in a look ahead spot to the heritage classic on Sunday, and the Leafs are coming into this well rested and full of excitement. This seems as good a spot as ever to back to the Leafs, no?
Eric
It's a good spot Eric and you're probably right in that the Maple Leafs are live but Winnipeg may not be a good matchup for Toronto. I wanted to see Toronto compete against a big physical team on the road before recommending them. Best of luck!
Oct 16, 2016 12:42:39
Hi Sherwood, I would like to share my pick for today and get your thoughts on it. Btw, I loved your NHL Preview, keep it up! Buffalo Sabres @ Edmonton Oilers OVER 5.5 Goals +115 (Pinnacle) I know Eichel & Kane are banged up, however, I see value as these are average goalies facing off against each other. The Oilers have also potted 12 goals in 2 games. The Oilers have a ton of talent up front, and Buffalo, banged up as they are, still have the potential to pot in a few goals. Also, Kyle Okposo is probable for this game, but not yet confirmed. Thanks for your time, and all the best! Keep up the awesome work.
SportsBettor159
Oct 14, 2016 13:45:17
Hi Sherwood, not sure playing Cleveland now is the best way to hedge your bet. This series is different in that the home team is favoured to win the first game yet is the dog in the series which means if Cleveland wins the first game, as expected, the odds on the series won’t change much. Say Cleveland does win tonight, then series price on Cleveland prob even money or at most -110, not huge diff from +130 and can hedge then. But if Toronto wins tonight, (then series is over!) the odds on Cleveland in the series will jump to at least +180, prob +200. I also have Toronto to win the World Series at 12-1 but will sit out game one, won’t hedge until Cleveland wins a game and hopefully won’t need to waste any hedge money till next round. Does this make sense?? Appreciate all your write-ups and Good Luck!
+1200
Hi +1200...You're argument is valid but it's based on not wasting any hedge money (a good idea), but it's also flawed in that Cleveland can go up 2-0 and then you'll be in trouble unless Toronto ties it 2-2. I do not disagree with you, as your reasoning is sound but I am taking nothing for granted. It Toronto wins Game 1,I am happy with my bet on the WS. Your approach makes sense too, as the worst that could happen is that you lose your WS future. Toronto does indeed have a chance to go up 1-0 and then you will be in much better shape then me. Good luck and thanks for writing and acknowledging the write-ups.
Oct 12, 2016 13:57:26
Good luck in therx hockey pool this year, except when you play me! How do you feel about the Canucks over 66 points this year? I feel like Vegas dropped the ball on this line. Last year was a disaster with key injuries and they still managed 75 points. This season they finally add a top line winger to play with the Sedins in Louie Erikkson, a much needed big and tough top 4 defenceman in Gudbranson, get back a healthy Brandon Sutter (missed almost all last season) to center the second line and take some pressure off Horvat, and add some scoring help with Swedish Elite League MVP Anton Rodin. There only losses were spare part forwards Higgins and McCann, as well as Yanik Weber and Matt Bartowski (those last two are additions by subtraction on the defensive end). Also two decent goalies in Miller and Markstrom. What am I missing here, this is not a 30th place club if healthy. Thanks
Reid
Thanks Reid....I never like to dissuade anyone from a bet they like. If you think it is low and you like it, trust yourself. If the Canucks are as good as you believe, they will soar over that number. You make some very valid points Reid and I wish you all the luck in the world!
Oct 9, 2016 14:16:06
Hi Brian, Do you see any value taking the Texas Rangers tonight at +182 on the Money Line? I truly think the oddsmakers have boosted Toronto's value based on the first two games, and especially Game 1. Texas played well here last year in the Postseason. These teams stack up well against each other, I am just curious if you see the value as well? Thank you.
SportsBettor159
I never like to take anyone off a game SB. If you think there is value, bet it. Personally, I think Colby Lewis should be getting 3-1 every time he pitches because he's so hittable and that's why I left Texas off my slate today. BEST OF LUCK!
Oct 9, 2016 10:15:16
BROWNS straight up ! Keep up the great work, your one of the few class acts this industry possesses. PROPS
SP
Thank you so much! I appreciate the kind words
Oct 1, 2016 13:11:18
Im I missing something? Why the hell is Wisky +11 vs the Wolverines? I know they are good but the Badgers Will just pound the rock And they have a crazy good LB core. I think they Can win this game outright but Will gladly take 11 points. Whats your take Sherwood?
Pete
Sep 30, 2016 12:25:32
Hey Sherwood, I know you are against Pro Line, but do you feel there is value when they over inflate the lines for the favourite? Take this three team parlay for example. DET@CHI: CHI +3.5 DEN@TB: TB +4.5 DAL@SF: SF +3.0 Pinnacle is offering the following: DET +2.5, TB +3, SF +2. I understand the parlay payout is not nearly as good, but OLG has inflated the line by at least one point in those games. Does that not constitute value? Thank You.
SportsBettor159
Absolutely not. It would be value if you played them on their own, or flat bet each game on their own but when you put them all together, the chances of the point-spread making a difference in all three is next to 0%. Hell, you can play a 6-point three team teaser and the odds are still not in your favor. Trust me when I say that pro-line is a complete ripoff. They are crooks with a license to steal.
Sep 27, 2016 16:00:57
Any way Cubs don't win the world series at +200?
Michael
October baseball is a lot different than the regular season and while the Cubbies can certainly win it, they are no way a cinch and I would want at least 3½-1 to bet them to win it all. Of course they can be beat. How would you like to face Kershaw, Hill and Maeda in succession? That's better than any 3 the Cubs can roll out (Arrieta, Hendricks and Lester).
Sep 25, 2016 17:38:40
Brian, what is wrong with the Arizona Cardinals? They were supposed to be a favourite to win the Super Bowl this season. They lost to the Bills 33-18 today, and they have not looked good so far this season, is Carson Palmer the problem or will the Cardinals manage to snap out of the funk they are in?
Tim
It's still a bit early to write off the Cardinals. Yesterday's line (-3.5) said they were in danger of losing. They were flat in Week 1 but blew out TB in Week 2. Injuries and other factors have played a role but Arizona will be just fine, Well coached with talent throughout, they'll be there at the end when the dust settles. Palmer is fine too. Be patient, as they are an upper echelon squad.
Sep 25, 2016 07:53:11
I have learned a lot about sports gambling from following this site over the past several years. Included in that education is that stretches like the one we are currently in can happen to anyone, including those who are prepared and knowledgeable. Keep plugging away Brian, your track record suggests that a massive correction is in order.
Joel
Thanks so very much Joel. It is so damn frustrating to be on such a bad streak for almost a full year so words alone cannot express my gratitude for the encouraging words and the time you took to write them. Here's to that major correction! C'MON ALREADY!
Sep 24, 2016 10:48:17
I like the idea of in game betting but have avoided it because of the excessive vig. Bet365 is 15% to 20%. There is not a man alive who can beat this kind of juice. Any thoughts?
Barry M
There is not a man alive is correct Barry. In-game betting at those prices is a losing proposition, therefore one must find a better option if one is going to play it. PINNACLE, BETFAIR (through an agent).
Sep 23, 2016 22:36:04
Hi Sherwood, I am writing you to enquire about the current NFL history column on your unit tracker. I have been following your NFL picks since the pre season and cant understand where you are getting the 9 wins from. According to my memory and your log, you should be 7-10, and in the negative roughly 6 units. I assume a man of your integrity wouldn't skew the numbers, and I have been looking at this ever since week 1, so I guess you could say that this an instance of curiosity on my part.
Terry
Terry, thanks for bringing this to my attention. My software does all the calculating on its own so I'll have to look back week by week, including the preseason and get back to you on this. I will post my findings in this thread later in the week so check back and we'll get to the bottom of it. Thank you again.
Sep 22, 2016 14:41:48
Hi Brian, heard your latest podcast and it is right on the money with that bullshit with sharps, public etc. What are thoughts on in game betting? Any strategies you use for them? Maybe a podcast of that. Thanks
Mike
Thanks so much Mike. I am fully engaged with "in-game betting" and your suggestion to do a podcast on it is a great one. I have several strategies that I employ that are too long a discussion to have on here but we will ABSOLUTELY feature it in an upcoming podcast. Thanks again for the great suggestion.
Sep 20, 2016 15:34:21
Hi Brian, any thoughts on the USA/Canada game tonight? I see USA is +246 OT Included. I know this Canada team is a powerhouse, and Carey Price is a wall in net, however, I see value at that price tag seeing as the US have a really good team as well, and this line seems to be overblown due to the USA's 3-0 loss to Team Europe Any input would be appreciated. Thanks.
RV
Lot of moving parts in this game RV (and Cam). The Americans are messed up and under a ton of pressure. That said, they still have a ton of great players and obviously can beat anyone. There is value for sure but since I have them to win the event, I'll pass on tonight's game.
Sep 20, 2016 14:06:20
Any insight on the WCH games today? U.S. at a +250 seems almost too good.
Cam
See above
Sep 17, 2016 17:33:57
Just thinking over your take on the Browns/Ravens game tomorrow. I always appreciate your analysis and insights. One thing though: the Ravens consider themselves a contender. They will view the Buffalo win as an under-performance. In all categories they will come out tomorrow to carve better stats. The Browns seem to be a structurally dysfunctional team. Aspiring to execute plays seems to be a challenge for them. It's not inconceivable that your prediction is on the money (the Browns are at home) but neither is it inconceivable that the Ravens win by 10. Best of luck!
Dave
No doubt the Ravens can win by 10, 20 or even 30 points Dave. Would not surprise me one bit if they did but I'm not in this to predict winners. I strictly look for value and that's it. This is simply a value play. I'll hope for the best. Thanks for writing Dave and making some sense too!
Sep 17, 2016 12:40:53
Hey Brian, I listened to your podcast exposing the tout at VIP Las Vegas. So I dug a little deeper and found the Reality TV show from CNBC called "Money Talks" featuring this Steve Stevens guy. What a scam artist this guy is! I can't believe CNBC would even show this, but I guess anything for ratings...He has no system. Period. Cut and dried. He gets his clients to bet big favourites, and when they lose, they double or even triple down on their bet. Anyway, the whole season is on YouTube. I watched Episode 1 where a guy was chasing his losses. Funny thing about Stevens is, this guy is making $$$ hand over fist. He gets a 50% cut from his whale clients without laying down the cash. He also has the VIP Sports call centre which reminds me of the movie "Boiler Room". It's all a pitch, and there is nothing of quality offered, the end goal is getting the credit card number. The sad thing is, is that people buy into this guy. Makes me sick. This is actually worse than telemarketing.
Andrew
It is sick Andrew. SO SICK. Thanks for commenting,
Sep 16, 2016 10:14:17
Hey Sherwood, see any value in taking Seattle -1.5 +170 over Houston tonight? Thanks.
Chris
Chris: I don't like to take anyone off a game they like. Obviously Seattle is very hot at the moment and could easily win by 2 or more. If you like it, play it. That game won't make my slate but Houston is a very beatable team indeed. Best of LUCK!!
Sep 14, 2016 21:18:54
WOW! Thanks for the heads up on World Cup Hockey value picks, with the CFL, NFL and MLB going on, no one outside of Toronto is really paying any attention, yet. I think you are right on and with that value who cares, USA or under 23, great odds, thank you, win or lose I would suggest the value is to good to pass up. Great stuff once again, from the best FREE tout that I use!
TOM
Sep 14, 2016 07:35:34
Just want to say great call on the MLB season win picks. Another 2-0 on top of the NHL 2-0 season picks. I enjoy them as well, as it keeps you interested all year. On a side note are you Fading Estrada today for the sweep?
Michael
Thank you Michael and of course I'm fading Estrada at prices like this!!
Sep 13, 2016 19:24:44
Seems confusing to hear constant lectures regarding value, but then at some point that turns into "The books are trlling us they have no chance to win"? With all do respect, whats the threshold number where value is no longer, and it turns into a "no chance of winning"? Or are you making that up as you go along? Great work with the site and podcast, always an entertaining read and listen, with some excellent handicapping tips sprinkled in there too! Thanks for the years of free advice and picks
Terry
Terry: it's always a challenge to pick winners no matter what approach you use. There is always risk but if you play value, stick with it and use good money management skills, you will always give yourself a better chance of ending up in the black at the end of your gambling career. Thanks so much for the kind words.
Sep 11, 2016 13:30:18
Brian, I took a year off from betting and have returned. It is nice to see you are still offering free picks with great analysis. I love the new podcast as well. I like the portion about laying your bets before watching pre game shows. It is true that these so called analysts can influence your decision, and from what I have noticed it's usually picking huge favourites. Best of luck today, and keep up the good work!
RV
Welcome back RV, best of luck and thanks so much for the kind words.
Sep 7, 2016 15:53:24
Little off topic . I would like your opinion on the odds at Pinnacle Sports on up coming Presidential elections .Are these numbers skewed or are just trying too balance the vig .
Patrick Smith
Trump has no shot according to Pinny. Don't bet against Pinnacle. Besides that, I don't discuss religion or politics.
Sep 6, 2016 20:17:08
Hi Sherwood, With respect to your NFL Survivor pool, if we already follow you on Twitter, how do we get an free entry? Tx Rob.
Rob V
Rob, go to the "Pools": page. There are several ways to get an entry or two.
Sep 6, 2016 11:50:44
Hey Brian, I tip my hat to you for ploughing through what has surely been a tough season of betting for many baseball bettors. Hang in there bud, and know that there's no better victory than giving your time and efforts to try and benefit others. And of course you're thinking, yeah that's nice, but I need some wins right now!..LOL.....All gamblers think alike!! Hopefully the NFL and NHL seasons bring you better fortunes! Speaking of the NFL, I came across the following info that seems to support some good UNDER bets in Week 1 (I'm not a fan of totals, but this info seems pretty solid): WEEK ONE NON-DIVISION ROAD FAVORITES HAVE GONE UNDER THE TOTAL 74 PERCENT OF THE TIME SINCE 1997. Last season their were 5 of these games opening week of which four went under (80%) Miami/Washington (W) Carolina/Jacksonville (W) Cincinnati/Oakland (L) Philadelphia/Atlanta (W) Minnesota/San Francisco (W) The UNDERS in Week 1 (2016) that deserve a look in accordance with the above criteria are: Thursday Carolina Denver Under 42 Sunday Minnesota Tennessee Under 41 Cincinnati NY Jets Under 41.5 Green Bay Jacksonville Under 48* Monday Pittsburgh Washington Under 50* Take care Brian and good luck!
Smitty
Smitty, thanks so very much for the encouraging words and for sharing your findings in Week 1 for the NFL. You have always shared good info with us and we appreciate it. Wishing you the best of luck in the upcoming seasons as well. Peace Brother.
Sep 3, 2016 13:16:39
Hi Sherwood Thanks for your latest UFC write ups. I'm an avid wrestling fan who has been thinking of watching more UFC as its become more available in the UK, having a little bet on the matches also give me more incentive to watch it. Hope the results go your way, Also looking forward to the start of the NHL (your write ups are awesome for that as well). Thanks for your hard work Freddie
Freddie
Thank you so much Freddie and best of luck always.
Sep 3, 2016 00:41:37
Hey Sherwood. Next time in cooperate into your handicapping that Stanford can play rugby in their end zone and not get called for pass interference. I've never seen so many missed PI calls in my life. But at least I have money management which you always preached so can't be too mad. Just waiting to see how long that zebra crew is suspended for after missing 3 huge ones.
Cam
Sep 1, 2016 11:40:37
F.Y.I. Re: Washington over 7.5. At Bet365 it's even money. The Under is -130
Greg
Thanks for the heads up and taking the time to send this Greg on behalf of everyone that is looking for the best number.
Aug 31, 2016 17:20:45
No Golf this week? :'(
Chris
The fields are tough Chris in the playoffs so we're going to take a three or four week break.
Aug 31, 2016 11:20:44
Well said Cam. DITTO!!!
Barry M
Aug 31, 2016 06:58:24
Your reply to Jason is a thing of beauty!!!
Jimmy
Thank you Jimmy!!
Aug 30, 2016 18:28:53
Sherwood don't let that idiot get to you, like at all please. If I found a bookie who would let me bet the day after a game I wouldn't have to follow your site for all your in depth analysis. Even an idiot can understand Estrada is a good fade. Well most idiots. Apparently there is one idiot who can't. But that not makes your website the best place for picks. It also makes it entertaining. I read all your comments. Most people appreciate the good and hard work you do but you can never please everyone. Please don't cut him off. I want to hear his bullshit over the next few weeks and watch him turtle into a hole as he has done all year. My only recommendation is don't even give these fucking clowns the time of day. When we win (and we win a lot following you) we barely ever say good job. But if you lose we jump on your back and say what are.you thinking. So don't listen to these small minded my mommy didn't kiss me good night idiots. 90% of us cherish you and.your insight. Let this fucking clown post all he wants because almost everyone who reads this website will laugh at him.
Cam
Thank you Cam. It bothers me not one bit but from time to time I like to give these losers a little space until the next one shows up. I do get a ton of positive feedback and for that I am grateful. Guys like yourself mean a lot more. I appreciate the kind words and the time you took to write. PEACE.
Aug 30, 2016 12:03:27
Ho hum, another Estrada fade and another 2 units in the loss column. Keep fading. The metrics say so.
Jason
Ho hum, another troll with nothing better to do. But since you brought that up Troll, let's look at that. Toronto is 13-10 in games Estrada has started this year. He has been a dog once, against Boston and David Price, a game they Jays would lose. Estrada has also lost as a -195 fav, a -200 fav (twice), a -150 or better fav three times and the list goes on. If you bet Estrada every game this year, you would be stuck over 4 units. So troll, since you have nothing better to do than wait for Estrada to get lucky and win, the past month must have been a long one for you. You have written me in the past about us being wrong about Gallardo, the NY Rangers, Pittsburgh Pirates, CC Sabathia, Colby Lewis and others and every single time you look like an idiot and disappear for a few weeks before re-emerging. You will NEVER get more space on this forum, as I rarely give time to anyone without sense anyway. Now go back to your mother's basement, where you live and get high on another joint before you fall asleep on the couch wishing you had a bet on ANY game. Fucking loser. Poof......BE GONE!!
Aug 30, 2016 11:37:15
Let me quickly sum this up. Amazing write ups, you are a stand up guy, handle criticism extremely well, and now a podcast that will quickly become my favourite one. Keep up the terrific work sir! (Way to expose those touts!)
Brandon
Thank you so much Brandon. We appreciate the support very much.
Aug 29, 2016 23:08:50
Excited for football season. You are one of the main cappers I follow. Love the insight. Especially when you line up with Skyblue picks football. It is MONEY!
Jeremy
Thank you Jeremy.
Aug 26, 2016 13:24:48
Four excellent write-ups on Wednesday. Just a half run short of perfection, but still great angles. Looking forward to the upcoming hot streak! Keep up that hard work!
Dingle
Thank you Dingle. It's a long swim back to respectability this year but it's one day at a time.
Aug 26, 2016 11:29:46
Great call on the Atlanta/Miami game going under. You were dead on.
Mark Daloisio
Thank you Mark
Aug 23, 2016 13:56:52
Wow, Reds, Angels and Marlins today!...I got the Rangers, Blue Jays, and Royals!...Something has to give!
Scott
Aug 22, 2016 14:59:24
I'm a big fan Sherwood. I'm curious if you've ever had an issue chasing losses. I'm a plus ROI player but I give it all back on those few days a year where I increase my wager and chase the losses to a big daily hit. How do you control yourself and keep your discipline?
Don
Thank you Don. There is no real answer to that. Discipline is something you either have or do not. It's the same as bad eating habits. You have to make a decision to not chase, not press and stay within your boundaries and stick to it. It's difficult, especially when you see a game that looks good. Discipline is something you need an abundance of but it's also something you can train yourself into having. It truly is mind over matter. If it doesn't work this time, keep trying and it'll come. Best of luck
Aug 22, 2016 12:42:27
Hey Sherwood, I am heading out to the desert soon was just curious if you had any positions on college football win total? You gave me some great advice on Diamondbacks under. Thanks Bruce
Bruce
Bruce, win totals in NCAAF are very difficult to play because they are limited to power conferences mainly and because the are now posting 30, 40 and 50 cent lines. In other words, you may see -170 on a win total to go over with only +130 on the under. That makes the house edge or hold very difficult to overcome and therefore it is not worth the wager. Instead, we posted a play to win the DIVISION that is now posted. Good luck in Vegas.
Aug 20, 2016 23:32:41
Glover? REALLY? Man, you must be confused. Time to give up on UFC. Worst. Pick. Ever.
Danny
Said the genius after the fight was over. Danny, I have a great bet for you....Bet McGregor to win by decision over Diaz and let me know how that turns out. What an idiot. Now buzz off and go bet the Reds to beat the Dodgers yesterday. Stupidest. Comment. Ever.
Aug 20, 2016 00:03:55
Damn, you are getting your butt kicked this year by MLB! But I see the last three seasons you made some good money. I for the life of me cannot win at baseball, seems like there is so many factors. I notice you put a strong emphasis on starting pitching. And I notice early in the year you bet a lot on 5 innings, so my question is why not stick with that all season? Hope you find success soon
TOM
The reason I don't play the five innings anymore is because the lines are usually much shorter. By playing full game, it gives us the option or ability to buy out of liability if we have a lead after 5 frames. Furthermore, we have other options with live betting if we have the lead. If that lead is four or five runs, we can wait until the 6th or 7th inning and the odds increase significantly on the team trailing. Just so many more options available in this day and age in the full game bet Tom and it's for that reason, we play full games. For instance, we have a loss posted on the White Sox and Mets on Thursday but I was able to buy SAN FRAN at 6½-1 when they were down 4-0 and was able to buy Cleveland at 2½-1 when they were down 3-2 in the 8th. That gave me free-rolls on both games with no possibility of losing. We urge everyone to utilize the in-game betting that all books offer now.
Aug 13, 2016 21:12:39
Hey Sherwood. It's the top of the 6th of the Redsox game and we are down 4-3. Even if we don't end up making the comeback,this was an amazing call... Arizonaès pitcher was glorious. Buchholz was awful. Got a couple lucky double plays to not look so terrible. Then that home run by an inch and error giving the Redsox 3 runs. I'm sure when most people comment mid game it's to tell you how stupid your bet was. But I'm still on board. Great call.
Cam
Thank you Cam....it's so true. From game to game the luck variance in baseball is so large. Even Boston's fourth run was a one hopper over the third baseman's head. That ball bounces an inch lower or if the third baseman is playing a step back, it's an easy out. That routine fly-ball to second base changed everything too. It changed Bradley's mindset and was the turning point for sure. That's a 5.4 unit swing. The Reds blowing a 4-run 9th inning lead last week was another 5.4 unit swing. There is such a fine line between winning and losing in almost every game, which is why I insist on playing value and letting the chips fall where they may. Thanks so much for the support Cam. You get it.
Aug 13, 2016 19:32:35
Nice write up on that Weaver kid! You would've nailed it had you went with it. Tough to do it either way but damn that would've been a nice hit for you. However as tempting as it was, he did almost lose it in the 2nd inning, I think once he got out of that he calmed the nerves a bit and did his stuff but Reyes was the focal point of that win. That kid is the real deal, Reyes, it seems. Love to see him start a game.
Eric
Thank you Eric. I think you'll be seeing Reyes start soon. Those first timers can have great value despite the risks. Had Weaver been up against any other team or at home, I probably would have pulled the trigger. DAMN IT!!
Aug 11, 2016 17:29:56
Sherwood, do you know the percentage of games that have a run scored in the 1st inning or an idea of where I can find past records, say 2013-2016? Thank you Sir!
Scully
Scully, a reader was kind enough to chip in and said you can find what you are looking for here: https://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/mlb/
Aug 11, 2016 12:45:07
The Yankees the best pitch staff in the AL East ????????? The only one worth anything is Tanaka. Pineda and Eovaldi are nothing but under achievers. And CC ?????? Really ?? He needs to retire with A Rod. Spin the wheel for your fifth starter to play scrub roulette.
AJ
I didn't say best starting staff, I said best pitching staff. Eovaldi and Pineda are nothing alike. Pineda is on the verge of elite while Eovaldi is not. C.C. won't be around next year and will not pitch if games mean something in Sept. They'll give Adam Warren starts instead. Whose staff is better? Boston? No chance...Balt, gimme a break..Toronto..Estrada and Happ are on borrowed time with Sanchez and Stroman being the only reliable starters.
Aug 10, 2016 13:48:34
I know you bet mostly dogs but you can still estimate the juice between favorites and dogs. The House gets it both ways.
Barry M
True Barry but I can't be sure how much juice I pay a year.
Aug 9, 2016 13:27:00
Just wanted to point out I think you're assessment on the Rockies ahead of today's game is narrow minded and not something I would use as a reason to bet heavily against. Not only is Dahl playing but was Parra the reason the Rangers scored 3 in the 9th to lose yesterday? You even said it yourself that he's a decent player, and I would expect him to improve as he comes off of injury. I think you're severely overthinking this, and I hope I'm wrong. Just wanted to give my 2 cents - now let's finish the season strong!!
George
With all due respect George, if the Rocks lose today, a series of factors will determine it. I am merely pointing out that the Rocks "broke" up their momentum. Why not let Parra pinch hit or wait until they lose a game before instilling him in. The reason is because they would rather lose than pay a guy 9M per to sit. I am not saying that Parra will be the reason should the Rocks lose today. I am suggesting that the decision to break up the lineup breaks the momentum and cohesiveness of a unit that was going good. We'll see what happens. Personally, I think the timing was bad. Wait for a loss then get him in. In any event, I appreciate the comments and/or another point of view. Best of luck,
Aug 7, 2016 11:18:50
Sherwood, any idea how much juice you pay over the course of a year?
Barry M
No, I really don't have any idea Barry. It's very likely less than most, however, cause I do not bet a lot of favorites, I bet a lot of ML dogs and I don't bet many point-spreads in basketball.
Aug 6, 2016 08:35:29
Hey Sherwood, MMA or UFC or whatever that crap is called is not a sport-please stop betting on it. I grew up, same as you when boxing was a real sport-this is not - so stop ...please. Rough stretch...but nobody, I mean nobody offers your analysis for all to see and posts the outcome. For instance Morency - loves sports but what a joke. Hoping for better times.
M
M: With all due respect, whether it's a sport or not is irrelevant. There is far less luck in UFC because there are no fumbles, no hot goaltenders, no bloop singles and no errors among other things. The value is tremendous and while I appreciate the kind words and the support, I have to disagree with you in your suggestion to stop betting UFC. WE LOVE IT OVER HERE! Again, thanks for the support and kind words M! Best of luck always.
Jul 25, 2016 12:36:32
I feel your pain, brother, could not believe losing that Edmonton game, i could just see it coming in the second half, to top it off, I checked out the buy out option on 365 before I went to the track, I looked at how many people were ahead of Vegas and decided to cash out, I got 3-1 on my bet, better than nothing, just about crapped when I got home and saw that Vegas had won....had him at 110-1.....I wasn't even going to check before I left...... I had to laugh....that's gambling, but I did keep my top 5 finish for Vegas, cashed that one, good pick on him.
Kooner
Spoken like a true gambler....off to the track and checking bets before. I love it! Thanks Kooner for taking the time to write and glad you cashed something!
Jul 25, 2016 12:15:21
Hey Sherwood, I have never bet golf but by am I kicking myself for not putting 20 bucks or even 5 bucks down on Vegas lol. Do you have any thoughts on the argos game tonight? I know nothing about the CFL and don't even want to pretend to. Thanks
Cam
Golf is a great sport to bet because of the low-risk/high reward payouts that go with it. There are big longshots all season long that hit frequently and it's so worth it to play it, even if it's just for a couple of bucks Cam. My CFL writeup on tonight's Argos game will be posted very shortly.
Jul 24, 2016 23:29:10
When I saw no one had said one thing about your amazing, yet insightful, prediction on the Canadian Open I realized probably no one played Vegas. That is Jhonattan Vegas at 110-1. Giddy What Up my friend. Nice call....big bucks! A round four -8 to come from 14th position. Get real. As always, thanks for sharing.
Scully
Thank you Scully.
Jul 22, 2016 14:26:27
Love your pick of the Phillies tonight. The Pirates are the second to last team vs the slider and Eflin is almost exclusively fastball-slider. This will obviously lead to trouble vs. lefties but which Pirates leftiies really scare us. Keep up the good work
Darryl
Thank you Darryl. Good points too!
Jul 22, 2016 12:52:25
Being from Ottawa, I was hoping you wouldn't make the mistake of being on Sask cuz it's truly likely to look like that once the game is over. Durant out is huge and while Gale looked good early on last week (only 4 points in 2nd half though), the Redblacks now have recent game film on him. Sask also lost an OL(Labatt) and a WR (Chambers) while Redblacks get 2 returning DB's to the line-up. Chris Jones only knows 1 way to play defence and that's to all out blitz. BC killed him in the 2nd half last week with 50+yd TD's where the receivers were wide open. Enter Redblacks with a better QB and better set of receivers than BC and it will all be the same. Harris has a quick release and the blitz won't matter yet Sask will blitz and leave their DB's on an island. Most confident CFL bet of the year. Ott -6 and also Ottawa double result to lead at half and at the end at -110.
Paul
You might be right Paul and I especially give you props for sending this before the game starts. You make some very good and valid points but my position is the same, which is to not try and predict outcomes and just play value.
Jul 19, 2016 12:22:18
What are your thoughts on Milone v Sanchez this evening? I was expecting you to be on the Twins given your previous positions on the pitchers involved.
Joel
Was very close to taking Milone Joel. Sanchez is weak but Minnesota didn't score yesterday and Milone is a career minor-leaguer mostly. Milone always gets chances, performs well for a game or two or three and then gets whacked for eight games in a row and sent back down....I got two good starts out of Milone when backing him the past two games so I think the opportunity on him has passed. That said, I would not want to take you off a game you like. Milone and the Twins absolutely have a good chance of winning tonight.
Jul 18, 2016 15:09:50
My uncle once told me that only degenerates bet on baseball! You are down 39.22 units on baseball and I think you struggled last year with it as well. "Baseball been berry, berry good to me" is not in your vocabulary recently. Have you ever considered easing up on baseball and just feasting on the fall sports like you did last year? Just curious.
Scott
Your uncle would be misinformed Scott. Some would argue that only degenerates bet on football. Back before the internet, Las Vegas books feared the baseball season more than any other season. The "old" pros would bet nothing but baseball. So, no, I would never ease up on baseball. It is my favourite sport to bet along with hockey because of the money lines. The great equalizer (the point spread) is not a factor.
Jul 11, 2016 06:45:56
Once again, fantastic results yesterday! To go out on the contrary limb and back these huge underdogs is really paying off. But after reading your writeups filled with great underlying stats that are missed by 95%+ of bettors, there is only confidence on my part and not a feeling of throwing away money on these big dogs for a shot in the dark. I'd further say that after reading your writeups it feels like the underdog should be priced as the heavy fav and even if the lines were reversed, I'd srill want no part of the other team and their inferior pitching.
Paul
Thank you Paul. I'm a big believer in metrics (hockey and MLB) because they have proven to me to be the most accurate predictor of future performances. I dig down deep every day to try and find prices that are off. Thanks so much for taking the time to write. I appreciate the support and kind words more than you know.
Jul 10, 2016 20:55:13
Looking forward to some more of your golf picks - with the "Open" in a few days. I'm hoping for a Sergio win - currently at 30-1. Would even consider a a top 5.
Jon
Thanks Jon. I will definitely have some sleeper picks and head to head match-ups for the British Open. Stay tuned and best of luck with Sergio.
Jul 9, 2016 17:00:37
Listening to Yanks Indians and they said Danny Salazar has the highest exit velo off bats of all American League pitchers. With Nathan Eovaldi second I can see that as not a category to be leading in because Evo sucks. Salazar must be strong in other areas. Your thoughts as a metrics guy.
Adam
Interesting Adam. Although I have heard broadcasters comment on "exit velocity" I have never seen any stats regarded it. I would have to see if the names change from year to year as to who is the best and worst to determine if it's a luck driven stat or one that consistently has the same names at the top and bottom of the lists. Salazar most definitely has some good skills but perhaps, like Eovaldi, his fastball comes in flat a high percentage of the time. Interesting for sure but not enough info on it to know if it's relevant or not. I'll have to do some research and if it is relevant, I will include it in my criterion.
Jul 9, 2016 11:18:49
damn that Redblacks' fumble on the one yard line with under 2 minutes to play!
Scott
Damn is right Scott but the missed interception in OT was actually worse. An 8-year-old girl could've caught that ball and I'm not kidding. Luck plays a part in many outcomes.
Jul 8, 2016 14:26:13
Good pick on Derrick Lewis last night! Made some decent money on that one! He out-struck Nelson and was the aggressor for most of the fight, so I had no doubt in the judges outcome. Nelson's takedowns meant nothing when all he did was lay there until Lewis easily got up.
Harold
Good points. Thanks Harold.
Jul 8, 2016 14:14:37
Lucky Indeed. That Lewis/Nelson result was shocking. However it also is an amazing show of change from the UFC judges. If this fight happened five years ago, we would have seen a 30-27, 29-28,29-28 unanimous decison from Big Country. FINALLY the industry have put less weight on takedowns and top control that doesnt include an offensive output whatsoever. Seeing the Significant strikes around 40-5 for Lewis at the end of the fight won him the match rightfully so in the entire scope of the fight, however he clearly lost two rounds by the old standard. Rewarding a fighter for dominating the actual offense, and not for laying and praying for a decison is so great to see. Added bonus: The underdog selected cashed, not as expected, but a winner is a winner.
Dingle
Thank you Dingle. That's educating. Good info
Jul 8, 2016 12:05:28
After having a good chuckle at the banged up Online and humidity comment I just wanted to say I think we got lucky last night with the Derrick Lewis pick. He came out flying and we were set but tired out. He obviously won the first round. Obviously lost the second as he was on his back the whole time. When it came to the decision I was worried but once again you were on the right side. Good pick man. Thanks for everything.
Cam
You are very welcome Cam. I watched the fight too and was shocked when the decision came in. I think the "Black Beast" was even more shocked. Indeed we got lucky but at the end of the day, nobody cares about luck, just results. Thanks for writing!
Jul 7, 2016 21:51:01
Hey Sherwood, love your upset picks Thursday, wanted to give you a heads up on Calgary. The O line is very banged up going into a very humid place this time of year. If I was Stamps GM the first thing I would lobby for with scheduling is a game out west during the Stampede. Ottawa gonna win big!
TOM
I don't really understand the correlation between a banged up offensive line and humidity but thanks nonetheless Tom. We'll see how it plays out. Best of luck!
Jul 3, 2016 07:52:55
Great call on the Mets Friday night Sherwood. Your quote: Hammel is a ticking time bomb" was dead on the money. Your reads on other pitchers are usually dead on too. Thanks for posting every day for free. As you would put it, you are the straight goods!
Will
Thanks very much for taking the time to send a message Will. I try hard and dig deep.
Jul 3, 2016 06:06:03
Props to you Sherwood, your a class act ! I make a living betting sports but I must say I never pick my final spots until I've consulted your website. You are world class good sir
-110
Thank you so much -110. I appreciate you saying so.
Jun 30, 2016 00:01:03
Great CFL picks on Saturday Sherwood, very, very cool, great job. Now I will get rich just following you on CFL and fading you on Estrada! Just kidding! Good solid work on both dawgs, thanks
TOM
You are welcome Tom. Hopefully we'll keep it going this week.
Jun 28, 2016 06:10:56
The definition of insanity-doing the same thing over and over and not learning from your mistakes. Just move on from your personal vendetta on Estrada. You make insightful points but your beating a dead horse and taking a beating yourself. Good luck with your picks
Mike D
Actually, the quote is...and it's from Einstein is, "The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results". Thing is Mike, I don't expect different results. I play value and Estrada should not be favored in Colorado. He should not have been favored -190 over Arizona and the list goes on. He's not elite but he's often priced like he is. As long as he's overpriced, I'll keep betting against him, just like I do against Sabathia, Colby Lewis, Iwakuma and a few others. So call me insane. By the way, the beautiful thing about baseball is that you can't kill the clock. You have to throw the ball over the plate until 9 innings are complete. NOTE: This message came in when the Jays were up 4-0 in the sixth inning but would go on to lose 9-5.
Jun 27, 2016 17:31:36
Hi Sherwood! I'm on board with Your Rockies pick Tonight! This could be the spot for regression. It would almost have to be. If not, Estrada may simply be a magician. lol. Always appreciate Your hard work Sir. Much respect.
Jordan
Thank you so much Jordan
Jun 27, 2016 09:16:43
Estrada's flyball tendencies won't play well at Coors. Rockies and Rockies team total over are the plays today.
Joel
It's encouraging to know that I'm not the only one that doesn't believe in Estrada. Good luck Joel
Jun 26, 2016 15:06:30
Gonna help you out by saying no way you finish up this year after this start......which means you probably will! Good luck, I mean judgement!
Scott
Ha-ha....Thank you Scott
Jun 26, 2016 10:21:17
What's so good about your site Sherwood is that you are honest and have integrity. How many people in the sportsbetting business would let others see them lose 80 units in month!? How about none. You never ask for anything, not even a signup and that, too, shows you are genuine. Sherwood, I wish people understood the work that goes into your well-researched analysis. Not only are the picks solid and consistent but you always provide a laugh or two almost daily. Keep up the great work you do. I'm a fan.
Rex
Thanks so much Rex. There is no benefit to being dishonest with my results. Win, lose or draw, the games will be here tomorrow but I may not. Keeping it real man. Thanks again for taking the time to write...your message brightened up my day.
Jun 26, 2016 10:15:32
Sherwood, Well done on CFL opening weekend, 4-0! I wish I took the time to have a look but was working all weekend, hope you have a similar showing next week. Take care, -
Chris
Thank you Chris.
Jun 26, 2016 01:14:23
You swept the CFL weekend! Awesome and congrats!
Mike
Thanks Mike. Still a long swim back for us after digging a deep hole but we'll stick with it.
Jun 24, 2016 14:39:59
Hey Sherwood, you have nerves of steel to post your plays every day. By doing so, you expose yourself to some abuse. Nonetheless, I just want to say how much I have personally learned about sportsbetting by simply reading your analysis and hearing your reasoning for your bets. This free service you provide is invaluable to so many and I just want to say how much I appreciate your site. It has become part of my routine going on eight years. Keep up the great work!
Ben
Thanks Ben. You made my day.
Jun 22, 2016 19:30:04
Sherwood - wanted to get your opinion of Andrew Loupe as a PGA pick this week at 175-1? 4 top 10s this year (including quail hollow in May), and the guy can hit it a mile which helps on the long Congressional track. At 175-1 I realize it's a crapshoot, but odds this long for a field this week are generally reserved for absolute no hopers. Thoughts?
Mike
There is no way that I would take you off a 175\1 shot Mike. I think you found a pretty sweet overlay there and I wish you the best of luck. I will play it too. Thanks for sharing.
Jun 22, 2016 15:58:45
Estrada tied some kind of record yesterday and the Jays still find a way to lose the game; at home to boot. I also believe that Barker would be proud of your overall record. As for the idiot who suggested that a $100 dollar bettor would've lost $8000 dollars that day obviously hasn't read your advice about staking no more than 2% of your bankroll on each bet. 9 winning years. Keep up the overall good work you and your staff do.
Brian Hayward
Thank you Brian. It is a day-to-day grind that I wouldn't change for anything. I appreciate the support very much.
Jun 22, 2016 14:03:10
Well Sherwood! The soccer Gods Taketh, and than they Giveth back generously. Iceland managing to not only hold on to a draw but score in the final seconds of added time helps erase some of the bad luck you suffered last week with Ronaldo missing a penalty kick! I smell the turn around brewing! Excellent night in baseball last night!
Dingle
Thank you Dingle.
Jun 22, 2016 10:28:23
I've been a professional gambler for 50 years and could not agree more with Brents comments. Even Barker would be proud of your record. Tough times will ultimately define your true character. I'm betting on you Sherwood.
Barry M
Thank you so much for that vote of confidence Barry. It really means a lot that someone with so much experience and knowledge would take the time to send that. Here's to better results in the near future!
Jun 21, 2016 16:35:20
In the early 80s I was just a young kid in Vegas at a little shop called Little Caesars it is now where The Paris hotel and casino is located I was talking to an older gentleman who I did not know and for about 45 minutes I listen to every word he had to say and the gentleman's name was lem banker at the time I did not know who he was as it turned out he was one of the few people that made a living betting on sports The thing he told me and I should never forget when you go on a losing streak and it happens to everybody don't push plays take a few days even a week a couple weeks off and come back fresh. Take some time off you work very hard at this but the harder you try to get out of the quicksand the faster you sink. Please for all of your followers take a break and come back fresh good luck
Brent
Thank you Brent.
Jun 21, 2016 15:04:05
Happy Eric Estrada day !
AJ
His name is Marco. Eric (spelled Erik) was an actor that played on a hit TV series called CHIPS. And if you play poker and bet on Estrada, you will be out of chips real fast.
Jun 21, 2016 14:17:37
Thanks for all your MLB picks...I told you I'll be back...Don't stop doing what you're doing...
Vinnie
Thank You Vinnie. I'm in a deep hole and it's a long swim back.
Jun 21, 2016 13:00:08
Texas/Toronto parlay (2 to win 2.82) Keep trying to convince yourself that the Estrada implosion is coming. And good luck stepping in front of the freight train that is Texas .
Sam
If you make this parlay and lose, you're a fool and if you make this parlay and win, you are still a fool. Back in the day, people who made these types of money-line parlays on big favorites in Vegas would get comped front row tickets to see Tony Bennett.
Jun 20, 2016 22:14:43
Truly an unbelievable stretch. Perhaps this is a cautionary tale on the perils of sports gambling. Even someone with a long history of success can lose a heckuva lot of money in a hurry. I will make an observation on your 2016 baseball season. You seem to be relying on analytics more than I can recall. When I first started following you, I don't think these advanced stats were even available. Maybe it's time to go back to basics. Kick it old school. If it ain't broke, don't fix it. And you weren't broke going into this season.
Joel
You are right in that analytics were not widely available back when I started many years ago Joel. However, we MUST use the tools that are available to us that gives us an edge. Not using them would be akin to the NFL not using replays because the game was just fine "back then". This is indeed a horrible stretch but it's also an incredibly unusual year in baseball, which I have elaborated on in today's Texas/Cincinnati writeup. I am confident in my ability to find underpriced/overpriced teams and pitchers and will fight like hell to turn this thing around soon. Thanks for writing Joel.
Jun 19, 2016 22:07:13
Don't listen to Steve? How can someone say that after you go 0-3 on your soccer picks so far and 0-1 in the UFC. Your write ups are good? Ya and that doesn't mean you should continue to pick losers even though they have a good write up to them. Sounds like something a politician would do. Talk the talk but won't walk the walk but yet still lie to the people! Don't listen to Steve? Lolol keep listening Harold and throw your money down the drain. That is if anyone has any left. Even a 100 dollar player is down 8000 dollars in the last thirty days. Nobody can afford to keep going, and if they can then they would be higher then a 100 dollar player and be broke anyway because there 100 bet would be 500 or 1000 per play. Sherwood focus!!!! And enough with those who follow me know. At the end there will be a profit yet how long can one sustain losing.
Steve
With all due respect those four picks should be 3-1 and not 0-4. However, at the end of the day, a loss is a loss is a loss....Still, if I see value in something, I will post it whether it's soccer, baseball, or anything else. Things will turn for the better soon.
Jun 19, 2016 21:45:29
Sherwood you are an excellent capper and your site is always a must read, cannot thank you enough for your advice over the last ten years. That being said my friend, get off the Estrada thing, the guy has no speed but can pitch, Dan Shulman pointed out that after a season and half this is no fluke. Your a good man but sometimes a wee bit set on a idea, but hey we all do this time to time. Love the conviction but its time to come off the ledge, hey do it for your kids, it is Fathers Day! Smarten up Sherwood and keep up the good work
TOM
Since Dan Shulman said it, it must be true. Anyway, I post what I wager on and it's up to you if you want to play it too. These are my bets and suggestions. Obviously you can listen to Dan Shulman or anyone else and make your decisions based on everything. All I know is that metrics do not lie, they have never lied and Estrada's lack of skills will catch up to him.
Jun 19, 2016 20:00:03
I have to agree with Harold. Croatia and Portugal both let you down brutally. Soccer picks are a great read. Was hoping to see one for today. but site maintenance when I checked in. BOL looking ahead, and lookin for an England Slovakia pick for Monday!
Kev
Thank you Kev. We will be providing soccer picks throughout the tourney. If I didn't think there was some value in them, I wouldn't post any.
Jun 18, 2016 22:17:45
Don't listen to Steve, these soccer write-ups are great. That Portugal game today was probably the worst luck any team has EVER had in the history of the Euro. Austria had no business being in that game, and let's not even mention Ronaldo missed a PK in the 79th minute. Keep it up Sherwood, your hard work will pay off.
Harold
Thanks Harold. Boy, it's been a tough stretch for us, unlike anything I've ever been through before. Back to drawing board on Sunday with a fresh slate and more determination than ever.
Jun 18, 2016 14:20:59
Sherwood stop the bleeding. Stick to your favorite sport. BASEBALL. feel as though people have influenced you into going outside your comfort zone with soccer and now UFC picks. Please don't say tennis is next!
Steve
Jun 17, 2016 17:47:42
Brian: surprised you have not been on Cole hamels lately, especially since Texas has been the dog the last few times he has pitched.
Cubby
Jun 16, 2016 10:38:31
Congrats on finally coming to your senses and saving another two unit loss by not fading Estrada yesterday.
Sam
I didn't come to my senses Sam but thank you nonetheless. I didn't like Hellickson against Toronto although Estrada had another good outing ON PAPER. His day is coming and it's not going to be just one day either. It'll be a series of blowups once the floodgates open up. Look up Eric Surkamp....pitcher for Oakland A's....that's Marco Estrada's double.
Jun 14, 2016 16:29:17
Spot on with your analysis yesterday including the Cincy pick which looks like it never went in for you but it did for me :-) Each of those 4 games you pointed out the weakness in the staring pitching and all 4 of those teams gave up crooked numbers! It was like reading tommorow's newspaper today. Very impressed and keep it up man!
Paul
Thanks very much for saying so Paul and for taking the time to write.
Jun 14, 2016 11:10:37
I agree with Kevin on wanting to see some Euro picks on here. There's something special about the Euro and World Cups where even a novice soccer fan can get involved.
Harold
Good point Harold and we are working on it for this weekend.
Jun 14, 2016 07:14:13
Great pick on Philly yesterday. You're the only one I read/heard that went with the dog, and man, you didn't disappoint!
FearinLoathin
Thank you man. It was all about value, nothing more. R.A. Dickey cannot be priced in that range because he does not win enough games.
Jun 12, 2016 15:34:48
Hi...I'm a regular and avid reader, and I appreciate your hard work and solid analysis every single day.....I have noticed a nice 'middle' available which I am all over....involving San Diego at Colorado.....Sports Interaction has the over at 10.5 @2.11, and Pinnacle has under 12.0 @2.15 ...we don't see this every day!
Jeff
Jun 12, 2016 07:48:39
Don't you think you're overdoing it a bit with the -1.5 picks this season? Maybe i'm mistaken but i can never remember you making this number of picks on the runline as you have this season. Wouldn't it have been wise to just go safer with the Angels ML last night?. It seems like you're shifting in policy. Anyway thanks for the winning seasons over the last 3 years. This bad start i'm sure will turnaround.
James
Jun 11, 2016 10:38:03
No picks for the Euro tournament? There's some great value on over 2.50 goals in the England / Russia match later today.
Kevin
No Kevin. I have nobody to do the selections. Personally, I would rather go to a quilt festival than watch a soccer game so I therefore have no interest in it whatsoever.
Jun 10, 2016 12:39:24
Every 5 days sportswagers.com has become a must read. The Estrada angle is fantastic and I cant agree with you more on what you are saying about him.... However, I don't think you need to bet against every single start until he starts to show the inevitable regression. You're not going to miss the boat after he has a bad start, the value will still be there. Carrying a no hitter into the 8th inning at Fenway vs. the top offense in baseball isn't exactly a ringing endorsement for the betting angle you are going with today. I'm in your corner, and support your write-ups for the most part, but -50 units in 30 days.... Really feels like you're chasing. When it's this bad, why not take a few days and then come back with a clear mental state. Good luck with O's tonight... With Estrada's good fortunes, you're going to need it. Take care Pal
Dingle
Thank you Dingle. You are a reasonable person and I will take everything you said into consideration. Thanks for writing.
Jun 10, 2016 11:49:17
You will be getting an Estrada e mail before the game. Estrada on the mound and you on the Os is EZ $$$$$.
Sam
Oh, for sure it's easy money. They are giving it away.
Jun 10, 2016 10:30:20
Hang in there Sherwood! Better times are ahead.
Harold
Thank you Harold.
Jun 10, 2016 09:18:54
Can you please pick the Pens next two games. I'm sitting on a Sharks future.
AJ
I hear ya AJ. It's incredible how everything I have pick over the past 30 days has been torturous.
Jun 8, 2016 19:11:19
I liked your writeup on the St. Louis / Cincy game tonight, but just can't bring myself to pull the trigger on Simon - he's awful. I opted instead to take Cincy Over 3.5 -118 at Pinny - I've found team totals to be a good way to play Dogs with hot bats. Good luck for tonight (lots of action!) and thanks for your ongoing efforts.
Brent
Good post Brent. Thank you. It's another way to benefit from information and to remind others that there are more than 1 way to bet on games.
Jun 8, 2016 06:10:25
Halt your baseball selections. Your metrics and subtext statistics are money burners.
beyle
Money burners for the past 30 days, yes, but proven over the past 30 years (15 on paper)...but in your world, 30 days takes precedence over 30 years.
Jun 7, 2016 17:58:32
Taking the braves and the Phillies over the Cubs tonight to break a slump? Don't do it!!!
Scott
My model is a proven one Scott. Most people try and predict outcomes. I play value and let the chips fall where they may. Padres scored two in ninth to win 4-3 otherwise we go 2-0 in those games. Chips didn't fall our way in that one.
Jun 6, 2016 21:33:28
Interesting Stanley Cup final. Though I am rooting for the Pens, it seems the Sharks are just gutless which is shocking after their earlier rounds. Their lack of urgency and offensive agression is rather pathetic to watch. They push hard in the last few minutes when behind but it's usually too late. Thornton is hockey's Dan Marino I guess.
Magus
Absolutely true Magus, Personally, I didn't see that coming. Either the Sharks simply ran out of gas or they are being outclassed by a much better team. Either way, it's not going to end well for San Jose.
Jun 5, 2016 10:44:58
Sherwood, I wonder if any of your readers are on the Red Sox over bandwagon? Barry M
Name
Probably so Barry. Red Sox are lighting it up at home and frankly, so are their opponents.
Jun 3, 2016 10:13:33
Hang in the Sherwood-good times are ahead! Your approach of playing value and making quality selections is tried, tested and true. Short term variance is bound to happen. Here's to a profitable weekend!
Gianni
Thank you Gianni for the words of encouragement. It means a lot to me during one of these rough variances. Here's to a great weekend is RIGHT! Thanks again friend.
Jun 2, 2016 22:07:16
Where was Wade Davis tonight? Joakim Soria??? I can't believe the run of bad luck we are having.
Joel
It can be frustrating Joel but we'll have some bounces our way soon. Hang in there.
Jun 2, 2016 17:58:49
Maybe just a cheap price on Greinke afterall? Pinpointing when the books are pricing games to trap publuc money must be one of the most difficult angles to play. I understand that the books dont often make mistakes, and they always want bettors to accept the gift horse, but as the betting public myself, when you draw up so many positives on one side in your write up on this particular game, I was surprised to see the trigger pulled on Hou-1.5. As someone that has tailed you on these before (usually college sports, not professional as much), I will always be excited to see the next big trap and fade it along your side. Good days are forthcoming my friend, keep up the great research.
Dingle
It's really good of you to send me a message like this when I'm running bad Dingle. It is greatly appreciated and means more to to me than you know so thanks very much for taking the time.
May 31, 2016 20:54:43
Do you have any experience working with brokers? I see there are some that offer Canadian accounts for the Betfair Exchange.
Alex
Alex: Yes, I use a broker called BET-IBC for the exchange and have had no problems whatsoever. The only issue is sending and receiving money in terms of avenues to get it there and back but once you figure that out, it is clear sailing. That said, I can't vouch for anyone else but if you send me the broker you are thinking of dealing with, I will thoroughly check them out and get back to you, as I have tremendous sources to check out credibility. Good question & Best of luck.
May 30, 2016 21:17:18
Estrada starting to remind me of Greg Maddux . He's got sneaky good stuff with a good sample size .
Patrick Smith
Seriously Patrick? Don't embarrass yourself by comparing Estrada to Maddux. Maddux was a first ballot hall of famer with filthy stuff, great control and was one of the best sequencer of pitches in the history of this game. Estrada will not get one vote for the Hall of Fame, he's always behind in the count and he was well below average in his surface stats for 7 years in Milwaukee. Hell, when he came to Toronto, he didn't even crack the rotation. He was forced into action because of injuries and has been riding a string of extreme fortune ever since. STOP IT ALREADY with the Estrada is great emails.
May 30, 2016 20:19:46
Look like you will be 0-8 on your last 8 MLB picks...Jesus...you can't be this bad...LOL...which book are you working for?
Vinnie
I'm working for all of them Vinnie. I'm trying to give out losers so fade me and let me know how it works out for ya. Now go troll and find someone else on a cold streak.
May 27, 2016 01:46:47
Thanks for the Pitt pick. I also have 4 units on Sharks to win at +360. I'll wait for your pick. I'll probably just let them ride. I have a feeling Sharks win.
Michael
You are welcome Michael. Good to hear that you're in great shape for the final. My CUP pick will be posted sometime over the weekend.
May 24, 2016 20:26:31
Penguins = Frauds !
Jason
Disagree Jason. Sometimes things don't bounce your way. It's not always a breeze but Pittsburgh has dominated play, they have lost Daley, their coach panicked by using Fleury in Game 5 and Malkin isn't doing much at all. For the Lightning, losing Bishop was a blessing too. The Penguins have had the Bolts down by 2 goals twice and lost the game and they also had a lead with 3½ mins to go in Game 5 and lost. In Game 6, they held the Bolts to 11 shots on net going to the third. With some luck, a few better bounces, the series would have ended two games ago. Adversity reveals character and the Penguins have shown GREAT character and a strong will to win. Not frauds.
May 22, 2016 14:15:21
Terrible break, literally and figuratively, losing Trevor Daley. Not wild about the return of MA Fleury to the Pens crease either. This is on top of the Lightning getting a good break, in my opinion, losing Bishop and replacing him with the steadier Vasilevsky. I think this best of 3 might come down to coaching and Cooper is better than Sullivan. The Fleury move is going to backfire on the Pens.
Joel
I don't like it either Joel but I didn't like the Blues going with Jake Allen either so what we think matters not. Time will tell if it's a good move but what we know for sure is that Fleury has played in these pressure filled pivotal games before while Murray has not, as the Penguins breezed through the first two series. Like you, I'll keep my fingers crossed and hope that the Pens can win Game 5.
May 22, 2016 13:02:01
I love your site, and I read every day....I appreciate your hard work, and free insights and advice....I notice you often 'buy back' a bet you made....some days you offer a brief explanation, but today you got away from 2 baseball bets, with no explanation....(to me, Seattle looks like a very good bet)...Don't you lose money doing this? Also, can you please explain why you do this (particularly Seattle today), and how you identify when to do this?
Kevin
Kevin: There are times that I may eat a small loss (0.01 to 0.05 units) but I only do it when there is "late money" on the team I bet. For instance, Tampa Bay went from a +112 dog to a -104 pick em in the last hour before game time. That puts me on the same side as the heavy late action, which is a side I don't want to be on. It's a heavy "public" side and I try and avoid those. That is the only reason for the buy back. Thanks for the kind words and taking the time to write.
May 21, 2016 17:11:39
Hello sherwood! I have been reading your analyzes about two years now. They have been mostly very analytic and deep in knowledge. Your latest writeup regarding sharkies against blues is what bothers me. It has some very good points and I totally agree with sharks psychological edge, Hitchcocks poor judgement when he decides to put Allen as starting goalkeeper, and sharks wanting the cup more and being the better team. What i dont agree is that its clear as day that Ken has issues with Elliot. Why is it clear as day? I think that its more about desperation when things arent going your way than fight between two very focused and experienced puckheads. With respect, Perttu from finland !
Perttu
May 16, 2016 16:18:56
The Penguins might not be in trouble yet, but our series handicap wager certainly is. Tampa Bay is 9-2 in the post season. It's unrealistic to expect them to suddenly drop 4 of 5, which we now need to happen. Would you recommend a series bet at this point (-130) to recover some of the expected loss from the handicap wager. Or would that be an example of throwing good money after bad?
Joel
Joel: Personally, I have Pittsburgh too many ways to invest more so I'm not playing them at -130. However, you do get a discounted price on them down 0-1 so it's not a bad bet at all. What is most telling to me is that the Penguins are a huge price tonight for Game 2 (-214). In the updated series price, Pinny had them at -140 to open while everyone else had them at -130. Pinny got their wish (the market bought up Tampa Bay @ +120) and the number has been bet down to -123 in the series. This is all good news for us, as Pinnacle (regarded as the sharpest book out there) did not buy that Game 1 loss. The updated series price and the line tonight (for Game 2) says the Penguins are going to be very strong the rest of the way. Personally, I completely trust them to win 4 of the next 5. You will see a different Penguins tonight.
May 15, 2016 22:29:12
Hi Sherwood, I noticed that the Betting Advice section on your site hasn\'t been updated since 2012...Would love to see some new content. I really enjoyed reading the advice. Thanks,
Rob
Thank you Rob: Go to the blog section and you'll find a lot of new content. http://www.sportswagers.ca/blog/
May 14, 2016 08:12:25
Vasilevsky is better than Bishop. Our Penguins wager is in trouble.
Joel
I agree that he's better than Bishop Joel but I don't agree about the Pens being in trouble. Pittsburgh had an off night, it happens....They'll bounce back.
May 13, 2016 21:48:03
Somebody tell the Penguins the next series started. Fn joke.
Jason
It's unreasonable to expect a team to play great every single game. Pitt will regroup and come back strong.
May 13, 2016 17:43:26
Hey Sherwood, I know it happens every year but with the struggles of so many budding aces (Archer, Price, Gray, Wainwright, Keuchel) to name a few. What can you chalk up there struggles too? Bad luck or loss of skills?
Shane
Strange you would ask that since I have covered all these pitchers in my daily write-ups Shane. Anyway, you can look at my previous results and click on the DAY on the left side of the result in question and read all about these pitchers and whether or not it's bad luck or a skills decline.
May 6, 2016 15:28:34
I love your unorthodoxy. For years I have heard it preached about never betting against streaks or taking home teams to win by 1.5 in baseball. And for years I have been losing consistently. You have opened my eyes. Value is value. Thanks!
Chris G.
Thank you Chris.
Apr 30, 2016 19:24:44
Hi Sherwood! I'm a first-time writer and highly value your opinions and been following you for a few months now. I would like to know why bet365 and all baseball alternative run lines are so low now for -4.5 dogs and -5.5 favs. In the past few years they used to be mostly in the 10 to 14 to 1 odds and now it's hard to find even one above 10 to 1 mostly now they are 7.5 to 9.5 to 1? Yout thoughts?
Rob V
Rob: I'm not sure why but my educated or logical guess would be that the books were either losing money on these bets or not making enough to make it worth their while. They offer "exotic" bets for their benefit and not the player, just like every casino in the world does. Thanks for the kind words and support Rob.
Apr 27, 2016 14:53:03
I've been betting the under in all championship games and Game 7s for years. Thoughts?
Jason
If it's been working for you, by all means go for it Jason. Personally, I never bet NHL games under 5 because you can't feel good about any score going to the third unless it's 0-0 or 1-0. It it happens to be 3-1 o 3-2, you have to overcome an empty net too. I don't want to take you off any games but that's the reason you NEVER see me bet under in the NHL. I like the strategy for all other sports, however.
Apr 22, 2016 15:11:39
Highly recommend a series bet on Rays (-105) vs Yanks, As you mentioned , the Yanks struggles against lefties is nothing new and feel it will continue this weekend. Totally agree on Moore still flying under the radar. Would not surprise me if his name is thrown around as comeback player of the year. An added surprise is we now see highly touted rookie Blake Snell getting the call up tomorrow , and yes he throws lefty. Yanks also seem to struggle against first timers throwing against them. Then on Sunday they see another quality lefty in Smyly who's record does not reflect his numbers. I'm pretty high on the Rays this year and they are playing to script so far getting quality pitching and struggling with the bats. I think this is a perfect time to go on a nice little run coming off yesterday's mini offensive outburst.
Len
Apr 21, 2016 22:20:50
I suggested the Jays might be a worthy fade target before the season started, and while it hasn't quite worked out, I think there is still an opportunity. The magic that carried them to the post season in 2015 is gone. There are glaring holes in the lineup and the bullpen. The overachieving rotation is the only reason the Jays aren't several games under .500. That will correct itself soon enough and the seat will get very warm beneath John Gibbons. Eric Wedge might be managing this team by July.
Joel
Not sure I agree with all that Joel. Jays have not been hitting well yet. They will and once they do, the wins will follow. Every team has holes. Jays do too but I wouldn't call them glaring. They have two very good starters and Happ is a solid mid-rotation guy. Gibby is a decent manager too and I highly doubt he'll be fired unless things really fall apart. I don't see that happening. It's a little early but time will indeed tell us a little bit more. The Jays stock is dropping so there will be opportunities to buy them at decent prices. Not saying you are wrong, just that your assessment might be a little premature. Again, time will tell. Best of luck Joel.
Apr 21, 2016 20:45:36
What an absolute piss poor first two periods by Tampa Bay. No killer instinct what so ever.
Kevin
Apr 20, 2016 17:48:44
Respectfully disagree with your assessment of the Flyers tonight. You open by saying "Are the Capitals really motivated to win this game tonight? I think the real question should be, are the Flyers going to be motivated for this game? Flyers to me, looked beaten down. I see two teams going in different directions. Good teams aren't silly enough to take the foot off the gas pedal. I think its a 4 game sweep. And here's to me the telling thing, I was so SURPRISED and DISAPPOINTED by how little the Flyers took advantage of the crowd and the Snider factor. They went up quickly 1-0 within the 1st minute, and then boom.....the Caps took over. I just expected much more of an emotional charge from Philly. Its over tonight.
Brian
We shall soon find out Brian. My position is that the Caps haven't been so dominating. Philly has been frustrated by not scoring and at times in the third have looked beaten down. With the realization that an upset is not going to happen for them in the series, I trust Philly has one more really good game in them and it's tonight providing the bounces are equal. You'll notice we didn't play them in Game 3....Thanks for writing.
Apr 11, 2016 20:47:52
Good luck this year in NHL playoffs. Do you have a lot of picks like last year?
Michael
Apr 11, 2016 19:03:27
Thanks for the Cabrera over Na pick! I actually got that at +125, so a nice win. Not sure I understand the +0.28 you scored yourself on the Masters...or maybe you just haven't updated it yet.
joenunz
You're welcome Joe. I scored the Masters as follows: I won 2 head-to-head matches for 4 units. I lost 2.12 on the third head-to-head and also lost 1.6 units on 4 golfers (0.4 units each) to win outright. Therefore, 3.72 units in losers and 4 units in winners adds up to +0.28 units.
Apr 9, 2016 11:40:47
I noticed you like bet on value. I don't see many parlay bets...do you make them? Thanks and good luck, Brad
Brad
I do wager on parlays and they will be posted in my just added parlay section in the coming days.
Apr 9, 2016 11:37:37
Hi Sherwood, how do you feel about taking all three must win hockey games - Det, Bos, Phi? Rangers going with back up goalie and missing a few key players and you have to believe Pitt sits key players and not risk injury to them. As for Ott game, they're banged up and Bos in must win situation.
Anon
My position on must win games remains the same. You pay a premium to bet these teams and while they may win today, the price on all of them is way too high. That said, I don't like to take anyone off of plays so if you like it, bet it. For me, there are far better options in my opinion.
Apr 6, 2016 12:15:12
Long time follower, first time poster and appreciate all the insight and write-ups, even if I disagree or don't use them. My question is two fold: first, I think you've mentioned in the past that this is your full time job and that you use your own money, is this true? If so, how much are you wagering each game? If you are making 40-50 units a year like last year, are you wagering 1k/unit? I can't imagine you betting anything less per unit and even so, a 40k salary is hardly a wage that one can live on. Secondly, if you are wagering that much, how do you sustain losing 10s of thousands of dollars on a bad run and not let that totally stress you out, like the current downswing you are on. Not trying to pry, I trying to see how it's truly feasible for someone whose tired of working 9-5
Steve
Steve: While I won`t reveal how much I wager on a game, I will reveal that the games that I post, I absolutely, 100% wager on. However, there is so much more that I do also that cannot be posted daily because it`s too time consuming. I bet line-movements with a few minutes to go until game time. I`ll often bet halftime lines in basketball and football or even bet in-game to take away liability on some wagers. It`s really a process that has me very involved daily during games. It`s not just a unit or 2 wager and seeing the results
Apr 5, 2016 15:02:02
Good afternoon Woody! Hopefully, everything has been treating you well? Only a few more games left as the NHL regular season winds down but no shortage of value in underdog picks to choose from. I've selected what I feel are four solid underdog pooches with value at the rink tonight: NYI +162 **1 unit Isles will be playing for their playoff lives tonight against an uninspired Caps team with nothing more to play for until this regular season ends and the playoffs begin. SJ +104 **2 units Like yourself, i like the Sharks in this matchup. The Sharks have absolutely been playing in beast mode on the road this year and i expect nothing less tonight as they've been 7-2-0-1 during their last 10 games as road warriors. Wild have been reeling as of late and the Sharks will be their undoing. CGY +132 **1 unit Flames offer some solid value here as LA has gone 0-5 on their last five road games and will be playing their second game in as many nights against a very 'loose' team with no pressure and wanting to perform well in front of their fans in the sea of red tonight. MTL +117 **1unit I am also leaning towards selecting a Habs win tonight vs a Florida team in what i think may very well be a trap game for the Cats after clinching their playoff spot in beating the Leafs last night. As usual, i luv your insight Mr. Sherwood. Best of luck with your picks. Cheers!
Dawg_Bets
Apr 4, 2016 18:44:19
Can you please explain how I am able to get Arizona under 82.5 (+135) after the Pollock injury ? I grabbed some at +110 yesterday and thought the books were sleeping at the wheel. Is this guy worth nothing in terms of win totals when he was like a 7 WAR last year? This is a total head scratcher. I feel like I'm the sucker now. What gives ?
Kyle
I don't believe you got suckered Kyle. The D-Backs had a good preseason and many people were betting them to go over that number. The books can't adjust that number much with no time left until the opener because it exposes them to a middle. I think you made a pretty sweet wager Kyle.
Apr 2, 2016 13:13:27
This isn't likely to be a popular opinion in these parts, but I would look to fade the Blue Jays at the start of the MLB season. There is a tremendous amount of hype surrounding the team which should translate to generous lines being offered for their opponents. There are enough red flags to suggest that the Jays might stumble out of the gates. #7, #8, #9, & #1 in the batting order aren't likely to get on base at a high percentage, which will prevent Donaldson from repeating his RBI prowess from 2015 and that should trickle down throughout the lineup. The failure to close on the Jay Bruce trade leaves a predominantly RH hitting order. EE didn't have much of a spring thanks to injury and of course there are the contract issues with Joey Batts & EE that hang like a black cloud over the franchise. Middle relief could be a weakness, which is bad news for a team where all 5 of the starters could have difficulty pitching deep into ball games, for different reasons. Additionally, Estrada is dealing with a bad back and neither JA Happ nor RA Dickey inspire much confidence going up against the big bats of the American League. The Jays will play solid D and hit a lot of home runs, but I don't think the magic of August/September of 2015 will be recaptured. At least not in April and May.
Joel
You make some very good points Joel about the Jays being over-hyped here in Canada. Will certainly be watching closely. Best of luck man!
Apr 2, 2016 13:03:18
Good morning 'Woody'. Great day for some pooch picks at the rink today. I'm siding with you on both your BUF +182, CLB +120 selections but i'm also picking DAL +120 & CGY +120. I was initially leaning towards the Leafs as well but after reading your terrific insight with today's TOR/DET match up I have decided to back away on that one. As a side note, I'm taking the points with both doggies in today's NCAAB match ups. Again, great analysis as usual and best of luck to you this weekend. Cheers!
Dawg_Bets
Thank you Dawg. The very best of luck to you too!
Mar 30, 2016 18:21:30
Was wondering if you and team follow golf and if so, would you consider posting some picks for the 4 Majors? Looking forward to the unofficial start to the season next week and the Masters. Thanks Jon.
Jon
Yes Jon, we will have some picks for the Masters and other Majors.
Mar 30, 2016 12:33:29
Sherwood, Nice capping yesterday! It's what I call a 3 Dog Night. Keep up your good work.
Rob D
Thank you for writing Rob...The Show Must Go On and once again there is Joy To the World.
Mar 29, 2016 23:20:17
Nice 3-0 night in the NHL for you. Keep up the good work. I am looking forward to your baseball picks .
Tim
Thank you Tim. It took the sting out of a 0-5 the night before. I'm looking forward to baseball too. Best of luck and thanks for taking the time to send me a message.
Mar 29, 2016 23:18:30
Excellent picks last night Woody, 3 for 3! I too was fortunate enough to side with you on both your MON and TOR selections but just couldn't bring myself to pull the handle on your STL -1.5 pick but kudos to you to making that play. Tomorrow, I am leaning heavy towards making two solid picks in ANA -250 & WPG -122. I'm interested in hearing your take on the PHI/WSH game as I feel this might be a trap game for WSH. What do you think, is there any value on taking the Flyers at home in this one? As always, keep up the great work & analysis! Cheers!!
Dawg_Bets
Thank You Dawg....Lemme just say that you are playing with fire in spotting 2½-1 with Anaheim or any team and I would take those bets out of your toolbox because they are simply not worth it. You risk too much to win too little whether they are flat bets or in parlays. You like the Ducks that much spotting -1½ goals is the much better play. Risk less, win more and if you lose, that means the game was so close that you do not want to be in that position when spotting 2½-1. Flyers may offer some value against Washington but I'll have a closer look and it may be on our slate. Best of luck Dawg
Mar 28, 2016 23:44:21
Hi Sherwood, Hope You had a good Easter. Pure Garbage Pekka Rinne Just brought me back to reality. I am so in Pain. You've been saying it all Year but nobody is listenning (Nashville Management). Thanks For all Your Input On the hurricanes, I value that team a lot, been following them all year But cannot take anymore pounding. Please stay away. Everytime You take them they let u down, You bet against them they burn you. Holla at me when U figure them out. Your big fan Jordan
Jordan
Mar 26, 2016 17:41:28
Do you like the Raptors as 8.5 favourites tonight against the Pelicans? Back to back losses against the Celtics and Rockets, the double-ejection of Lowry and DeRozan last night seems to call for a response. I normally bet against the Raps when the spread is substantial. and tremble at the thought of betting them in the playoffs, but tonight? Maybe?
Dave
Your angle is very reasonable Dave. I don't like to take anyone off of a game so if you like, it, bet it. Trust your instincts and best of luck if you decide to bet it.
Mar 25, 2016 16:47:52
Good Afternoon 'Woody'! Once again I'm onside with your take and analysis on the NJD/WSH game and have the Devils +160 down for a couple of units. I just feel that the Caps are playing disinterested hockey at the moment and that the Devils should be able to catch them napping tonight. Another live pooch I like tonight is the NYI +165. Some may argue that the Isles play as of late doesn't warrant a look here but they have had success against the Bolts this season winning all previous meetings. With all the teams nipping at their heels I feel this is a good spot for Greiss and the Isles to respond & step up their game against a familiar foe who may be caught in a potential trap game in looking ahead to their weekend showdown with Florida. Anyways, let the chips fall as they may. As always, keep up the great work & best of luck Woody. Dawg_Bets
Dawg_Bets
You make a good point about the Islanders. They are in a good "buy-low" situation tonight. Line is too high and in terms of value, I think you hit the nail on the head with them. Best of luck Dawg!
Mar 21, 2016 15:32:46
I agree it is not good strategy to look to play the Rangers as they are overpriced. However, this game last week they were a pretty signficant dog against the Ducks so it wasn't a typical situation. Rangers have been horrible but we know they're dangerous and they have way too many talented players to not be considered somewhat of a threat. They are likely headed to a match up with Pittsburgh in the 1st round and thanks to Pittsburgh's play they'll be a dog in that series. From your tone, I know you want to get at the Rangers but I'd have no interest laying anything with Pittsburgh against the Rangers. Perhaps the Rangers are heading to an implosion but I think it is more likely they will be a tough out in the playoffs. I think it will set up that value bettors will be on the Rangers.
Skeeter
When the playoffs roll around, it'll be time to re-evaluate each team depending and look at the matchups too. Seems to be quite a bit of interest in the Rangers these days, both for and against, Good luck Skeeter
Mar 21, 2016 14:03:03
Good morning 'Woody'. I wholeheartedly agree with your takes on tonight's match ups. Time to pounce, as i predict a lot of Dawgs will be barking at the rink tonight: FLA +123 PHI +119 CGY +105 LA +104 Cheers!
Dawg_Bets
Good luck Dawg. Personally, I think that L.A and Calgary, especially L.A. might be a bit too enticing (trap)
Mar 20, 2016 03:37:58
LoL @ Henrik the Rangers supporter. I couldn't have worded it any better myself Sherwood. Anyone willing to lay juice on a below average team at best such as the Rangers deserves to be taken to the cleaners. i'd rather pick my spots and take my chance on the teams with betting value that are under the radar. Nice picks this month so far, keep up the great work and analysis!!
Dawg_Bets
Thanks Dawg...The Rangers have not played well all year but dude thinks because they are much over .500 that they have. Usually I can have a discussion about it but his tone is rude in more than 1 email.
Mar 19, 2016 09:51:03
Recently got paid on your Carolina team wins over and Vancouver under total. Thanks for those, it made the first part of the season quite interesting.
Trent
That's cool Trent. Not sure who you're dealing with but whoever it is, they are rather liberal, as I have not been paid yet and never get paid on these bets until the the end of the year after the required amount of games are played for the bet to qualify. Anyway, I'm glad you won and I appreciate the time you took to write to let me know. UPDATE: Another reader said they were paid BY SIA so that's good.
Mar 19, 2016 09:29:36
I don't often disagree with you, but I see value in playing Miami as an underdog today. Wichita is certainly a strong team, but they are taking a big step up in class going against an ACC power as opposed to squaring off against bubble team Vanderbilt and a less-than-impressive Arizona squad. The performance of Pac 12 teams thus far raises a red flag for me in assessing the Shockers win on Thursday. Having said this, I think all of these games are really difficult to handicap and you have done an outstanding job being in the black the past couple days. Looking forward to the rest of your plays.
Joel
Thank you Joel. Good observation on the Hurricanes.
Mar 17, 2016 20:04:54
NY Rangers 70 40 23 7 87 A .500 team ? Corsi says so LOLOL !
Henrik
You think I give a rat's ass about W/L records? That's why you are going to pay extra on the Rangers and lose a fortune. But I was wrong about them being a .500 team. They are actually worse than that. Now go grab a six-pack and lay -160 on the Rangers.
Mar 17, 2016 11:00:05
Hi Sherwood, just need to post to you again that you have incorrect information about Purdue. I'm an alum and have followed this team closely. They DID beat Michigan State and Maryland at home, therefore, they were actually 2-4 against ranked team not 1-4. As a matter of fact, they were 2-2 against teams that were ranked in the Top 10 when they played! I do agree that double digits might be too many to cover, I just want a SU W! Good luck!
Daryl
Thanks Daryl. I appreciate the heads up. ENJOY!
Mar 14, 2016 12:56:17
Sherwood, I've been a loyal reader/follower of your picks for a few years now. You've been a big aide to me and look forward to your Madness picks. To the fools who bash you, don't ever let those clowns get to you. You're providing a free service (a knowledgable one at that) and I for one am grateful that you take the time to do so. Keep up the good work and let's make some money on the madness...I need some spending money for my Mexican vacation!
Sarb
Thank you Sarb! Those "clowns" don't get me down. I know the hard work and effort that I put into this site is appreciated and acknowledged by many. I love what I do and it's messages like yours that keep me motivated. Thanks for taking the time to write. You'll love Mexico so travel safe, enjoy and let's get that Madness money!
Mar 14, 2016 12:50:09
Hi Sherwood can you post a few more MLB win totals? Heading to Vegas in a week and would really love to hear a few of your thoughts before I head out. Appreciate all the work you put into the website
Bruce
Your wish is my command Bruce. Will have one more posted today and will try and get up another one later in the week. Good Luck in Vegas!
Mar 14, 2016 09:13:59
Sherwood, yesterday's NHL write-up on the New York Rangers/Pittsburgh game is exactly the reason why so many check your site before making a wager. That's just one example but you saved me a bet and turned what would have been a losing bet into a winning one. It's not the first time either. Thanks man and good luck in the upcoming tourney.
Enzo
Thanks for saying so Enzo. Best of luck to you too.
Mar 10, 2016 12:34:04
C'mon Sherwood, massive day off college ball, its rainy, amd Im home for work. Who we betting on this afternoon!?!? ND at home perhaps??? Checking in frequently, hope to see some afternoon action! Lots of Love
Dingle
Ha ha, thanks Dingle. I'm cautious this time of year because it's difficult to get a true sense of each teams' state of mind. Come Tournament time, I'll have a ton of selections because I know all teams are in the same state of mind...win or go home. That said, I do have a couple of games posted today and hopefully that afternoon pick will start things off right. Enjoy your day off!
Mar 8, 2016 17:05:37
Sherwood, I always appreciate your articles on handicapping games, you are a great talent in a tough industry. I want to point out in your FDU/Wagner write up, you incorrectly stated that the prior game was a OT victory by FDU. That game was February 4. On February 18, Wagner went to FDU and won by 20, 94-74. Look closer to the box score, Wagner had a 24-8 edge on offensive rebounds. Wagner outshot FDU by 15. I am with you on the FDU play. Too good an offense to get almost double digit points. Good luck!
Daryl J
Thank you Daryl
Mar 4, 2016 19:07:03
Ok sherwood I need your opinion. This Utah @ Memphis game is as sketchy as they get. The Jazz are a -1.5 favorite currently on the road against a resilient group that is 12 games above .500. Strange. Mainly because tomorrow the jazz opened up as a +1 on the road against the Pelicans who is what 14 games under .500?. What am I missing is this the books trying to get people to bite on the grizz tonight or what?
eric
It sure looks like that way Eric. Grizz could be the sucker play of the day for sure. Props to you for recognizing it. Trust your instincts. Should be interesting to see what happpens. I might play the Jazz myself. Best of luck!
Feb 29, 2016 11:01:07
Sherwood, now your just showing-off. Barry M
Name
Feb 29, 2016 01:28:36
Sherwood, Like Yanny I always look forward to your baseball analysis. You seem to be a step-ahead in finding pitchers under the radar and when to fade the ones with declining skills. Lets get some totals so even though we may not be betting on or against a given team that day we still have a rooting interest. Congratulations on a great Saturday and Sunday. You consistently win over the long haul keep up the good work.
Greg
Thanks Greg. I will definitely have MLB season win totals posted and have already found one that I will post this week. Will be looking for more too because it really is one of my favorite types of wagers.
Feb 28, 2016 17:09:07
Sherwood, I've been reading your write-ups for 12 years every day. Your detailed baseball writeups are second to none. Anyone that doesn't appreciate or complains about what you give out and ask nothing for in return is a complete fool. I may not agree with your selections but I get great information and that allows me to make my own decision on whether to wager on the games you recommended, lay off or even fade. Forget what I've bet, you have saved me hundreds and hundreds of bets over the years on games I would have bet but didn't after reading your stuff. Anyone that I know of that visits your site instantly becomes a reader of it for life because the info is so well researched and valuable. Win, lose or draw Sherwood, in my books you are one of the good guys out there and one of the most knowledgeable sports handicappers I have ever come across in 40 years of betting on sports. Looking forward to another baseball season and reading your stuff. Thank to you for this site Sherwood!
Yanny
Yanny, thank you so much for taking the time to send these kind words of support. Your message made my day.
Feb 28, 2016 14:53:15
WOW!!! Thank you Keep knocking Pal. Barry M
Name
Thank you Barry.
Feb 28, 2016 11:11:41
Is 5-0 good enough Robert? I guess that means you went 0-5 on the Sherwood fade. Once you drag yourself out of depression from getting rocked yesterday, itd be great to here from ya... but guys like you shutup pretty quickly.... guess youre just another tout. All the best Sherwood, keep knockin down them winners!
Dingle
One think I've learned is to just keep grinding. My partner will tell you that I'm the same even keeled guy every day, win or lose. She can never tell by my mood whether I went 5-0 or 0-5. We just keep looking for value, playing it and letting the chips fall where they may. Just keep grinding.....Thank you Dingle.
Feb 28, 2016 08:11:18
Great day yesterday, solid analysis as always. Time for a long overdue good run. Not always easy for people to remember but there is a lot of variance in sports betting. As you are aware variance breaks even in the long run and solid analysis wins.
Ian
Thank you Ian. A lot of variance is about the best way to put it and it's why I stress playing value. In the long run, it wins out, despite the variance. I was looking over my OT and shootout record in the NHL and I'm 12 games under .500 in those. That's a great example of variance. Take 4 of those losses and turn them into wins and it's a difference of roughly 4.2 units per game (lose 2 units instead of winning 2.2) or 16.8 units overall on my season record. That's just one example of how variance plays a part. Anyway, I appreciate you taking the time to write in Ian and send some encouraging words.
Feb 28, 2016 07:48:42
Keep those negative comments coming Robert. They only seem to sharpen Sherwood's focus. How is that fade going? Tough day for you yesterday.
Joel
Feb 27, 2016 14:31:16
Jordan was correct that a great man stated, "Great spirits have always encountered violent opposition from mediocre minds". The quote is courtesy of one Albert Einstein. I simply wanted to give notice to one of the most intelligent men to ever walk our Earth. And speaking of great men, at least in basketball IQ and talent, how about Kyle Lowry willing Sherwood's followers to victory last evening. Nice call.
Scully
Feb 27, 2016 12:09:39
Very nice call on the Sabres and Raptors last night Sherwood. Your insight is very helpful and very much appreciated by myself and many others. All the best to you.
Eddie R.
Thank you ER.
Feb 26, 2016 18:19:49
Scully, Keith, I echo the same sentiments about Sherwood! A great man said: Great spirits have always encountered violent opposition from mediocre minds. You never take any rest, Holidays, week ends, It does not matter we can always count on you. In sherwood, we trust
Jordan
Thank you Jordan. "Great spirits have always encountered violent opposition from mediocre minds". That is a great line. Thanks for taking the time to write and acknowledging the hard work I put into this site.
Feb 26, 2016 15:24:38
Sherwood, as always thank you for Sportswagers. As Keith stated, the information and knowledge you share willingly to all each and every day is invaluable to most readers. As Barry said in so many words, the best way to eradicate negative posters, ignore them. I do understand it is easier said than done. Approximately six months ago I wrote to you on this topic, but here we go again. I suspect I will repeat again in another six months as the roaches always return. Losing streaks are inevitable, it is unfortunate but true. However, if you are consistent in using a logical approach and have discipline with your money management, one will survive and succeed long-term. For those who have never had an extended losing streak, it is most likely because they burned through their bankroll chasing. Breaking down the board each day is an arduous task and unfortunately winners are not found each day. It amazes me that people come here seeking your professional opinion for free and then complain when games lose. Here is a thought for those individuals, cap the games yourself, do not blindly follow anyone, and stop betting more money than you can afford to lose. And if Sherwood comes to your residence, places a gun to your head and makes you play his games, as soon as he leaves call the police. Those who are too lazy, immature, economically challenged, and or not educated enough, please move on and find someone who gives 100% winners each day so you will be happy. This site will survive without these individuals and their negative comments. Your point to Robert was extraordinary. Robert, if you are indeed fading and cleaning up cash from your man, why would you ever complain or gloat? Most people who actually win, keep to themselves, collect and ride the gravy train. Again, thank you for your site, most of us find it as a useful tool on a daily basis. Be well my friend.
Scully
Thank you Scully. It is messages and comments from people like yourself that keep me motivated, focused and intent on giving my best each day. Thank you for taking the time to write. Could not have said it better myself.
Feb 26, 2016 13:28:13
To Robert, I say this and to anyone else who doubts this man, the information and knowledge Sherwood possesses cannot be paralleled. When it comes to hockey, he is a walking encyclopedia, when it comes to general strategy he has an abundance of practical expertise. When value is stressed its for a reason, I've seen it with my own eyes, its not always going to the way you want it to, but the fact of the matter of remains he knows how to win because he strives to be the best at what he does. Anyone who doubts that, I just can't but help but laugh at the thought of that.
Keith
Thank-you Keith.
Feb 26, 2016 13:26:38
Sherwood I think the majority of your readers understand the physic of a gambler. You let Robert (the idiot) trigger your ego. When you address "The Knockers" they win and you"ve allowed them to bring down the collective consciousness of your site. Fuck "em! Barry M
Barry M
You are right Barry. Thank-you.
Feb 26, 2016 09:30:25
It gets awfully quiet around here during these cold spells. You are on quite a run. Betting against Nashville every night has proven to be a good strategy for you . I will continue to fade you. You are just another tout. Regards
Robert
I personally keep a record of how I do with each team and in Nashville games, we're up 12 units on the season. Secondly, I usually don't respond to these type of messages but every once in a while I will to show people what type of losers troll the internet just waiting to write in. Anyone that bets on anything goes through losing streaks, It's inevitable. I expose myself to criticism because of my transparent model. At the end of the year, however, we'll be up again, just like always and you'll be broke, just like always. I don't believe for a second that you fade anyone because if you were making money fading me, you would not write in and "complain". Instead, you would collect the cash and be happy. A tout....that's amusing....All we do is give out well-researched, strong information with an opinion. I personally bet on every game I post too. Idiot.
Feb 24, 2016 19:24:30
Hi Sherwood, looking for some insights .... at time of writing, Buffalo is +217 at Pinny including OT, but is +247 in regulation. That extra $0.30 was too much for me to leave on the table, so I went regulation. I was surprised, as I generally view OT as a bit of a coin toss. I'd appreciate the benefit of your thoughts ....
Brent
It is a coin toss Brent and that's why the OT price is lower than the regulation price. In other words, if it gets to OT, Buffalo's chances of winning increase. If indeed OT is a 50/50 proposition then playing the dog in OT would be the prudent move. If you are playing favs, then playing them in regulation only at Pinnacle would be smarter because over time, one can expect to lose money with favs in games that go into OT.
Feb 20, 2016 14:11:59
I'm grateful to get the push on Louisville but did they really miss 3 free throws in a row or we would have won....
Cam
Yes, that's exactly what happened
Feb 18, 2016 09:27:26
Disappointing how long term followers can't join the baseball pool due to already having made accounts at all your sponsers. Thought you'd be more dedicated to your long time followers.
Eric
That's a good point Eric so I have revived the baseball pool page and will be running a second pool for all long time followers. I appreciate my long time followers very much, so thanks for writing and pointing that out.
Feb 17, 2016 21:22:24
How is the exchange treating you Sherwood? Regards, Barry M
barrym
Uh, Betfair and all other exchanges made Canada a restricted region at the end of December so all Canadians are now unwelcome. Cannot play there anymore Barry....where have you been?
Feb 17, 2016 11:28:24
Enjoy following and playing your picks Sherwood. Lots of insight and thought on your part. Like the picks tonight just a little worried about the Av's returning home from their road trip. But I guess it is Montreal:) Take care and keep up the good work!!
Steve
Thank you Steve. I did look at Colorado returning home (I try and look at everything) but it does not concern me. For one, it was a brief, 3-game trip and secondly, it was not a difficult trip in terms of travel with games in Ottawa, Detroit and Buffalo. Go Avs!
Feb 16, 2016 11:29:13
Sherwood, Just wanted to say a quick hello and thank you for all your hard work. The write-ups are not only educational, but a great read in general. Also love listening to you on the podcast. With baseball season around the corner, are you expecting to have any season win totals up? Gianni
Gianni
Thank you so much Gianni. I will absolutely have MLB season win totals posted this year, as there are several I am working on now and digging even deeper to find something good. I really appreciate the time you to took to write.
Feb 13, 2016 00:26:50
What's up Sherwood! Great call on Ohio NCAAB, They Breezed Through Buffalo, No contest. I truly treasure your pick. Man Oh man, Can You Please tell me what's going on with my team the Minnesota Wild? I am beyond perplexed now. Thank You. In sherwood we trust
Jordan
Thanks for the kind words Jordan. Truth be told, the Wild are just ordinary that don't do anything at all extraordinary.
Feb 12, 2016 23:49:16
Forget that Florida game. I'm impressed, 4/5 last 2 days in hockey is pretty darn good. The 2 day sweep on the kings games were down right dirty, tough games to pick little bit of luck but nicely done man. Let's keep this little roll Goin.
eric
Thank you Eric.
Feb 11, 2016 17:55:49
Love the one pick today man. I think getting back on track starts with something like this by far the best selection of the day in a huge list of games. There's a few other games that catch my eye today too. KINGS, OILERS REG., WILD, SHARKS REG.
eric
Flames got very lucky. We got lucky. Great game to watch though in terms of entertainment.
Feb 10, 2016 18:38:09
Good evening Sherwood. I think St Joe's should be on our dance card tonight. Frankly, I see them winning outright but would gladly take the 4.5 points that can be found at pinnacle. They are a superior team to GW and like you pointed out a while back, this is the time of year when the goodship Colonial begins to take on water. I think they will spring a big leak tonight.
Joel
They did indeed spring a big leak. Good call Joel.
Feb 9, 2016 19:58:16
Reports today that Bob Hartley is benching Monahan, Gaudreau and Bouma for disciplinary reasons, fan 950 Calgary the Flames flagship radio station reporting
TOM
Feb 9, 2016 13:44:11
I mean no disrespect Sherrod as I appreciate the free picks you give on a daily basis and expert analysis. But sometimes I really feel you get way too caught up in losing and it harshly effects the results of your picks. Just my opinion man to man, bettor to bettor, but where you see value now is starting to look vastly different than when you seen it a few months ago. But again I know you'll snap out of it and continue to give nice value picks day in and day out but I'm sorry I don't think today is your day. With that said, my opinion of course, the leafs are a minor league team at best without their captain clearly in FULL TANK MODE and in no business should anyone in their right mind be putting money on them to win at any point especially on the road. When management clearly doesn't care about their record why should I place my hard earned dollars on that. Calgary in regulation is much more valuable but for your sake I hope I'm wrong. As for Montreal teams snap out of these funks all the time and it usually ends up in streak of the opposite kind as you taught me several times. The value is on the other side man, seriously. The caps, no argument there, but somethings telling me Vegas wants caps money there. Oilers, Canucks you got some decent insight there I wish you luck. Sorry about the rant man I'm just trying to make sense of some of your recent selections.
eric
No offense taken whatsoever Eric. I appreciate constructive criticism, as we are all in this thing for the same reason. Your points are duly noted and I especially respect that you sent me this before the games started last night. Eric, the intent of your message was to point out some things to help, as you see me getting off track a bit, which could happen to anyone from time to time and so I appreciate the time you took to write. That said, I don't think I was off last night. Leafs outshot Calgary 33-22 and TB outshot Montreal 39-27. Scrivens outplayed Bishop and Hiller outplayed Reimer. Go figure. Like I always say, give me the goaltender that plays better, and I'll give you a lot more winners than losers.
Feb 6, 2016 10:18:01
I meant no disrespect by the Canes/Jets comment. I just was surprised that you passed on the Canes, who you have been bullish about, in that spot at plus money. Sorry if you took my comment the wrong way.
Joel
No offense taken Joel. My point was that you had the option to message me long before the game started to ask why or suggest that the 'Canes were a great bet. I look at every game closely. I didn't like Cam Ward in net coming off a long layoff at that price. I didn't see any value in the 'Canes and I was actually not far off, as the Jets still scored three times and had they not fallen behind 3-0 on the first eight shots, the game would have been much different. I respect everyone's opinion but what I don't respect is someone suggesting something to me when the game has been all but decided. I appreciate the time you took to follow up. Now let's cash some tickets today!
Feb 5, 2016 20:18:25
Easy for me to say when it's 3-0 five minutes in, but I can't believe you weren't on the Canes tonight and fading the Jets again.
Joel
Please let me know who you like in the Super Bowl if a team goes up 3 TD's cause I'd be really interested.
Feb 5, 2016 01:49:40
Great calls in the NCAAB on Thursday! 3 for 3 'easy' wins, even though Morehead State was close (I am kidding of course when I say 'easy', but I think you know what I mean). I really appreciate your awesome research digging out these gems! Keep up the excellent work! I just want you to know that there are many of us that really appreciate your daily, thankless work...
Jeff
Thank you Jeff, your message made my day this morning so thanks for taking the time to write it.
Feb 2, 2016 01:05:08
Hey Sherwood, Thanks for the site. As a Preds fan, I have to agree that PR in goal just ain't what he used to be. We need a top notch goal tender! But for the big game props, how about Manning rushing more than 1.5 times for +160 on 5 Dimes. Hell, he will get sacked at least once, don't you think? I believe that a sack counts as a rushing attempt. Keep up to good analysis, I love reading your stuff even if I'm not betting.
Michael A.
Thank you Michael...in regards to the Super Bowl prop....Manning is going to get rid of that ball instantly. I like him to throw two picks more than getting sacked twice.
Jan 28, 2016 23:55:32
Seeing the King of the Underdog hit the chalk instantly in the Super Bowl, confirms what everyone suspects, a blowout.
TOM
Let's hit it.
Jan 27, 2016 09:45:08
Hi Sherwood, guess I wasn't so wrong being Sponge Bob last week. See anything for prop bets this year for the big game, and if so, will you post here? Hockey is going well for you, hope it keeps coming. I was wondering what number would it be before you go for a middle on the big game, Carolina -7.5? Following your write up, I'm in for 3 units, but I'm wondering with the loss of Thomas Davis, how much the line may be affected or how effective the offense of Denver may now be. Thanks again my friend.
David
David: I haven't looked at the prop bets yet but I will and If I see anything I will post them. I usually don't indulge in props but I will post if I do. As for a middle, I can assure you that the line will not go to -7½. There is a good chance, however, that it will go to -6. At that point, I will decide what to do. I would definitely consider a middle at -6 but that would take away the value from -4. Chances are better that I'll stick with my original wager and roll the dice with Carolina. Frankly, I'm not a believer in the Broncs and trust the Panthers to out them away. The loss of Davis absolutely hurts but guys step in in the absence of others and Carolina has the depth and desire to compensate somewhat. Manning and the Broncs got very lucky in two playoff wins. Manning is simply not effective anymore.
Jan 26, 2016 14:36:07
Hey Sherwood. Any value in the Leafs tonight? Also what is going on with the Vancouver / Nashville line. It opened as a +100 for the Canucks nw a +130. I may have no choice to hop on the Canucks unless you steer me clear with your clairvoyant knowledge of these things. Thanks in advance
Cam
Nothing is going on other than money coming in on the Preds. Make no mistake, the Preds are a GREAT team and if they limit the opponents shots, they are usually going to win despite Rinne.
Jan 26, 2016 12:52:25
Why are you not on Nashville tonight!? Is your attack on Rinne that bad? Canucks are coming home for one game after 6 game road trip only to be off for the all star break tomorrow. Preds finally stringing wins together on this Canadian trip just like every other mediocre team in the league seems to be doing these days. The Preds with Glen Healy in net could beat these Canucks no matter how hard they play. You see value?
eric
Two reasons for sure....first, they're favored on the road and secondly, Rinne is in net. I don't bet Rinne as a favorite. EVER. That's just my policy.
Jan 25, 2016 13:00:55
Sherwood, I have a question about a middle. A couple of weeks ago I wagered on the NFC -2 to win the Superbowl. I thought that the teams in the NFC were better particularly Carolina. They have now opened as a 4 point favorite and will probably go higher this week as the public always bets the eye test early. Since the magic number 3 is involved should I middle any or all of this wager? I still like the NFC but 20-1 is tempting.
Greg
Jan 24, 2016 14:14:14
Ok you have me scratching my head about your New England pick ,I have all the respect for your knowledge in the sports betting world for I don\'t know many people that can pic as many games as you do day after day and be a winner at the end of the year but I think your are reversing your strategy in this game, a lot of your write ups I have read specifically mention value in your wager(buying low selling high) now tell me how Denver is not getting value here at home at +3, when is the last time Denver was a home dog with Manning, everyone saw how bad Denver looked last week and the odds makers are on to this knowing that Joe public is going to bang New England right now public is backing New England at a %75 rate and odds makers are not moving the line at most places not only that but if this game was during the season the line would favor Denver at -2 or 3, good luck with your bets but Denver all day for me
TG
Thank-you TG. You are 100% right about stressing value, as it is a strategy I employ daily and am always on the lookout for. That said, I can't imagine for a second that Roger Goddell and the NFL will allow a Denver/Arizona SB. A Newton/Brady SB will attract twice the viewership and maybe more so and over the years, I have learned that the NFL always gets what it wants. ALWAYS. I'm not saying it is fixed but don't be surprised to see both NE and Carolina get some calls go their way if the game is not going their way. Here is one of my blogs from last year that explains it more; http://www.sportswagers.ca/blog/article.php?bID=44
Jan 24, 2016 12:26:11
Great site! I think Denver +3.5 had value & 25% ML ...and Air +4.5 at start I see Den Car SB but GL as always..
dan
Jan 23, 2016 19:15:29
Nice work on the Louisville/ Georgia Tech game. Thanks, I always follow you and have that feeling your about to go on a roll, believe your nfl picks are bang on, best of luck and again thanks for your insights, very helpful.
TOM
Thank you TOM and you are very welcome!
Jan 21, 2016 18:33:45
Hey Sherwood. I see the play on Arkansas is gone. +2.5 not enough value I take it?
Cam
Exactly Cam. I tweeted out that we're coming off that game, as I didn't like the way the line movement went.
Jan 19, 2016 11:10:07
Hi Sherwood, Really interested to see your analysis for the NFL this weekend. Since I'm Sponge Bob Square Pants, I feel like it's NE -3 and Car -3.5 based on recent history. I think you're going to go the opposite and believe that the Arizona D can play even better and that Palmer won't make as many dumb throws as he did against GB. The hail mary's that allowed GB to come back into the game worry me, and the poor coaching decision to throw to Fitz before the 2 minute warning that even allowed all the drama last game concerns me. Carolina has shown they are ready to win, especially beating a team like Seattle who has been to the Super Bowl the last 2 years. Denver...oh man, I realize they have the superior D and run game compared to NE, but when Brady is clicking, honestly I feel like there is no stopping them. Against KC, it's fools gold to think NE doesn't have holes on D, but I feel they'll make enough plays on Peyton to get him off his game, as Bellicheck has done in the past. So I believe in NE and Car to go to the big game, but I won't bet until I read a more detailed analysis from someone like you before I pull the trigger. Keep up the great work, and let us know about any new sites for playing the exchange.
David
Jan 16, 2016 09:23:09
I felt like I was wearing square pants when I made my NFL picks for the first 3 games this weekend, but seeing you are also on the first 2 favourites re asserts my confidence in my plays this weekend. Excellent write up, and I cant agree with you more with the NE/KC game. No matter how it plays out, taking rested better prepared BB/Brady over Reid/Smith is a must play under a TD. Everyone forgets to acknowledge the Patriots Defense as well... Its all about what they can do on offense in the publics eyes, but I am willing to say that this game will probably turn on the play of NE's Defense. Best of luck this weekend, and I cant wait to see your stance on Sunday's action!
Dingle
Sometimes there is value in playing chalk and I believe we both found some here. You make a great point about NE's defense Dingle. Best of luck to you too this weekend and always
Jan 15, 2016 13:56:12
See any value in the Pens tonight? Tampa is coming off four game trip to western Canada, as well as a final stop in Denver. Span of 13 days, where things finally started to click but I'm not so sure about them "coming together" yet until they win at home. Pens final game of their road trip and have had 2 days off in between each of their last 3 games. That's pretty nice and they've been playing much better. Not to mention they have tampas number big time. 11-1-0 last 12. I'm sure you have good reasons to stay away but if you had to Choose where would you go on this one?
Eric
I do Eric. I was close to posting the Pens. I like the returning home from a trip angle and the days off angle but something prevented me. I like Vasilevskiy better than Bishop. The "kid line" has had four games back together and they're going to go off anytime now. Also, Pittsburgh has been off for a few days as well. I might have wanted a better price on the Pens but you're certainly not off the tracks by betting them. No result would surprise me here but hold a gun to my head and I'm with you because we're really not sure if the Bolts have got right-sided yet. Tonight will be a good test. Best of luck
Jan 14, 2016 22:51:36
Good call not taking Winnipeg. Slop show on both sides of the puck. I bet them and cashed but you were absolutely right to lay off. Our man Rinne strikes again!
Cam
Rinne is brutal and Jets are going to be a good fade down the stretch.
Jan 14, 2016 17:00:27
Why aren't we fading the Preds tonight?
Cam
Can't stand the way the Jets are playing....undisciplined, sloppy and very beatable almost every game.
Jan 14, 2016 13:45:58
Keep up the great work with college basketball!
Jason
Thank you Jason
Jan 14, 2016 10:17:07
Why no fade on the Panthers last night against Calgary?
Jason
Jason: It's easy to play results. I had Calgary written up and posted but it was contingent upon Karri Ramo in goal and not Jonas Hiller. When Hiller was announced, we took that game down. We called for the Panthers to be flat and they were but we're all about value so when Hiller starts, we want more than +103 on the team he plays for because he wins a game for his team every leap year. Yeah, we wish we would have bet it but we wish we would have bet Columbus too. One cannot play results unless one is playing with monopoly money.
Jan 13, 2016 02:24:29
Whatever happened to the guy that used to post NBA picks about 2-3 years ago. He was very good. Where can we get his picks? Thanks
Kevin
In 2011, we had a winning record in the NBA. the 'guy" that did those picks was me. The year after and the year before, we lost 66 and 50 units respectively in the NBA and that too, was me. It's just a sport that I've always had difficulties with and although I follow it closely, I will only make the occasional wager on it and when I do, I will post it Kevin.
Jan 12, 2016 22:22:13
Hi Sherwood...some time back I emailed you to ask for your help in navigating the Bet365 website to find regulation-only ice hockey bets. You replied promptly and helpfully. Afterwards I still could not find bets where I could get half a goal in regulation time and I felt stupid following up with you, so I sent them a mail today. I used your example of tonight's Black Hawks game. Here is how they replied: "I am sorry to hear about the confusion you are having when trying to place your hockey bets. What I will do is go through your points and explain what we offer. Firstly as you correctly stated 3 way betting is regulation time only this is because there is the option for the tie so for example if we use the Blackhawks on the money line you can choose (Blackhawks win , Tie , Predators) so at the end of regulation time one of the 3 options will be a winner. We do not offer 3 way betting with .5 options as there is no possibility for a tie with any bet that includes .5 as you are unable to score "half a goal", this means all bets that are .5 will be 2 Way markets and include Overtime. As for the odds the 3 Way will again not include Overtime , the odds are calculated by our traders based on what they believe the outcome will be. I hope this offers a full explanation to your query." Forgive my ignorance Sherwood, but I still don't see how I can bet regulation spotting half a puck with Bet365, yet you have odds for just such a wager. Can you give me a "slow-learner's review"? Appreciatively, Dave
Dave
Dave: Technically, BET365 does not offer -½ puck-lines. However, what they do offer is 3-way lines. A 3-way line technically means that whichever team you are taking you will be spotting -½ puck in regulation. Think about that for a second. Whichever team you wager on when betting a 3-way line means that you have to win the bet in regulation, which is EXACTLY the same as spotting -½. If the game ties in regulation you lose your bet because you are -½. If the team you bet wins in regulation, you win the bet. It's that simple. On the BET365 menu, go to 3-way lines and on the far right, you will NOT see -½ but you will see a money line. Whichever team you bet, you are betting that team to win in regulation, thus -½... YOU CANNOT take +½ at BET365 because they don't offer that. They offer -½ on both the underdog and the favorite. Don't even think of it as -½ (although it's the same thing). Think of it as betting a team to win in regulation. OT is excluded so all ties lose. Don't feel foolish if you don't understand Dave. I would be happy to take you through it again if you still do not understand. Best of Luck
Jan 10, 2016 10:20:47
Just curious reading your +38 units for 9th straight winning year' post on the home page. your 2015 totals in your historical section tally -39.... just curious what Im missing here... but that's a 77 unit discrepancy
Dingle
Valid inquiry Dingle and what you are missing is that my year tally goes from January 1 to Decemeber 31 while the historical section covers each season of that year. Therefore, any season that crosses over from December to January (NHL, NBA, College hoops, etc) may have different season results than the overall tally of the calendar year. Hope this helps explain.....
Jan 9, 2016 14:28:51
Steelers and Chiefs, moneyline, Bank it!
Scott
Jan 9, 2016 13:30:29
The more and more I hear about everyone and their dogs liking the Chiefs the more I like the Houston bet
Craiger
Jan 9, 2016 10:37:00
My concern with the Texans is that the strongest opponent they have faced lately was New England and they did not look good in that game. And the Pats were not great in the final stretch of the season. To be honest, I don't like either team. However, I think the Chiefs defence might rule the day.
Joel
Jan 9, 2016 10:08:55
Think there is value in parlaying all the home teams on the moneyline..pays about 30 to 1. Any NCAAB today.
Kevin
Yes, I think there is always value when parlaying money line dogs Kevin. 30-1 for four teams that have a good chance to win is great value. As for college hoops on Saturday, yes, I will have games posted soon or by 11:30 AM EST. Best of luck.
Jan 7, 2016 22:10:11
Enjoyed reading your article on KC/Houston, but I must say I totally disagree, KC defense best in AFC, save your money Sherwood! Best of luck, you can't win them all !
TOM
Jan 3, 2016 09:13:34
Almost had it with the Arizona bet. The one shocker is how they didn't go for two with 4 minutes left and instead kicked the extra point to go up by 6.... of course they ended up losing by 1. Was it typical football and the coaches just had no idea what was going on or is there some strategy to going up by 6 that I am not aware of? The strangest thing is that not even the commentators mentioned it. I am already aware they are borderline incapable of comprehending the game themselves as everything they say when "analyzing" the game comes after something has already happened. Summarizing is always easier than predicting. Hindsight is 20/20 and they make a lot of money by doing it. But even when Arizona lost by one they didn't bring up not going for two. I'm still confused...
Cam
Makes no sense to me either but then again, I'm not surprised Cam. These idiot coaches (and commentators) have no clue when or not to go for 2. I seriously believe every team needs a football bettor on the sidelines telling them when to go for 2 and how to manage the clock because we are nine steps ahead of them all the time. I'm still confused too.
Jan 2, 2016 23:49:52
Cashing on the TCU bet... good for you Sherwood...! Now I hope you cash the Arizona State bet.. Happy New Year and looking forward to a profitable year, from a new reader
joenunz
Thank you Joe.
Jan 2, 2016 23:09:16
Outstanding work on TCU. Proof positive that you are the best in the business. Very gutsy to stick with the pick. Props.
Joel
Thanks Joel, however, I can't take a lot of credit for that because I posted that play when TCU's QB was not suspended and expected to play. My hands were tied with TCU at a pick-em because there was no way I could play Oregon -7 with the possibility of losing both bets. As fate would have it, Oregon's QB was injured for the second half and the rest is history.
Dec 31, 2015 17:11:33
I assume you will be taking another look at TCU now or get out altogether? thx
Mike
Mike, I can't get out becauase I played it already at a pick. I'll update my position before game time
Dec 31, 2015 13:36:47
Good afternoon and Happy New Years! The best game of the bowl season is happening tonight between MSU and Alabama... I was pretty set on MSU, but am 2nd guessing myself not seeing it on your board. The line is at 10 now and the total is down to 44.5. With 2 of the top Defenses in the NCAA and an edge at QB, I would have expected to see the Spartans +9.5 /+10 on your board. What are your thoughts on this game, and why dont you see any value on the dog?
Dingle
I do think there is value on Sparty but I didn't like the line. I thought it was too high and when I see something that looks too good to be true, I don't like to get involved. That's the only reason for me laying off.
Dec 31, 2015 09:17:48
Are you still on Clemson given the suspension to 3 players - the kicker, tight end and wide receiver?
Jon
Absolutely Jon. The media blows everything out of proportion and all it does is inflate the line a little bit more.
Dec 30, 2015 22:38:38
Sherwood, all the best during the holiday season to you and your family, Clemson vs the Sooners, I'm loving the over, any thoughts? I know you don't usually like totals but noticed you recently played one in NHL
TOM
Thanks for the well-wishes Tom. All the best to you and your family too. As for the Tigers/Sooners over the number, my lean would also be over but I'm not crazy about it, as it's a big number, teams have been off for a month and intensity is very high in a big game. That said, I don't like to talk anyone off a bet so if you're feeling strong about it, by all means bet it.
Dec 30, 2015 17:58:11
I'm sure you are aware of this by now but just in case you are not, you will probably wanna buy back on the maple leafs ASAP. Bernier is confirmed, which means this will probably be an epic disaster no matter how good the leafs play. Bernier has to be the worst goalie to ever have on your side right now. The guy is terrible plain and simple. No idea why he's starting, hopefully Reims didn't tweet something last night.
Eric
Thanks for the heads up Eric but I was not going to buy back the Maple Leafs at a loss. As soon as Bernier was announced, Pitt went to -175, a ludicrous number considering how beatable they have been. Had Pitt come down to below the price I bought Toronto on, I would have bought it back but that didn't happen.
Dec 29, 2015 18:04:22
Bold selection on Baylor. Pretty difficult to win without a QB. Hope you know something the rest of us don't.
Chris G.
Not really Chris....I just did what I always do and that's play the value or the market overreaction. It worked out well and hopefully you cashed a ticket.
Dec 29, 2015 17:55:40
Just finished watching the AF/Cal Bowl game. Great analysis and handicap on the game... some bad luck early on by the Air Force Offense, and Jared Goff went off to try and reclaim the top QB entering this years NFL draft. A performance like that may have done just done that at our wallets expense! Im very nervous backing Baylor this afternoon with their horrid Defense, but Ill trust in Da Bears offense and tag along on the +3.5. Good luck and Go Bears!
Dingle
UNC was exposed again, which comes as no surprise but more importantly, the value was with the dog and fortunately it worked out. Best of luck to you too Dingle and thanks for taking the time to write.
Dec 28, 2015 16:29:13
Just following up on Gianni's note from the 24th...Your dedication and hard work is appreciated...Your methodology and insights are priceless...Happy Holidays..Started following you on Twitter as well..Be well..
Dougie Fresh
Thanks very much DF. Happy Holidays to you too.
Dec 24, 2015 11:32:50
Just wanted to wish you a fantastic holiday season. Appreciate all the hard work you put in to this site-content is second to none! Keep up the great work and here's to a very profitable 2016!! Cheers Gianni
Giann
Gianni: Thanks very much for the kind words. All the best to you too and thanks for the support.
Dec 24, 2015 11:27:29
Im Steve's world, lines never move or vary from site to site... in Scott's world, a point spread is apparently meant to be hit at an 80% clip, not the 50-50 clip. I love coming on here to see what someone with some actual knowledge on some of these lesser known games has to say, and then getting complete idiots posting random hate messages because they just don't get it. If you're going to gamble, take responsibility on the bets you make, don't be lashing out like clueless children at the guy offering his free opinion to the public... I don't care what these morons say, the info you are offering on almost all college sports is extremely valuable to me and I'm sure to many others. Look forward to continuing a profitable bowl season with you.
Dingle
Thank you Dingle. Coming from a truly well-respected handicapper in this industry such as yourself, that means a lot to me. Thanks for the support and kind words.
Dec 23, 2015 20:02:47
Read your college football pick and Georgia southern. Liked what I read and went to make a wager the line is 3.5 at bet 365. Where are you getting these numbers. Is this why your up for the year with a bigtime losing record.
Steve
Seriously dude? I take great offense to that. That pick was posted on Dec 21. I always post date of pick in write-up and NEVER cheat on numbers.
Dec 22, 2015 13:07:48
I continue to enjoy your analysis and work. Have to step in and disagree with the analysis on the Utah St. game although I have no opinion on it. I think Utah St. is the better team so this isn't an even game. Akron has that elite run D but overall I think the Utah St. D is better anyway. Keaton hasn't played well for a few years compared to his earlier career so actually if the other guy plays Utah St. might be in better shape so that is a wild card. Apparently and I am quoting another source finishing strong in the season is a contrary indicator to performance in a bowl game. I like your rationale but the numbers don't support it. Is it something that will regress to mean or is there a factor that explains I don't know. The line is 7.5 now and has gone up. I recognize sometimes you like that to fade the steam of games so you may be even more encouraged to be on Akron but that is something I don't agree with especially on college football games. I only like your theory there on extreme public betting events which are some NFL games and college games. Honestly don't like it for a meaningless bowl game which by the way I also think both teams are aware this is so I say crapshoot to who is more motivated.
Skeeter
Props for writing in before the game starts Skeeter. Respect. We have a difference of opinion and that's all but the point-spread is the great equalizer in all of this. Apparently the oddsmakers agree with you that it's not a fair fight. We shall find out soon enough. Happy Holidays.
Dec 21, 2015 14:40:01
bulls over hilltoppers, I don't think so! Another sherwood special, Mr. Contrary!...congrats on being UP for the year!
Scott
Dec 18, 2015 17:57:53
I understand it is tough to be on a downturn, however it is below you to make up teams to play, I mean come on Incarnate Word. That was the best you could come up with? I feel a very nice night coming our way. Thanks for all of the hard work you do for the rest of us. Happy Holidays!
Scully
Ha ha...Thanks Scully. Happy Holidays to you too,
Dec 18, 2015 14:51:33
Hey Sherwood...I saw a clip on TV last night featuring Steph Curry saying that the Warriors were a little disenchanted with Milwaukee's reaction to their recent win over his team. The spread in the rematch tonight is 18 to the Warriors. How much does emotion factor into setting a line like that, in your opinion?
Dave
Dave, I saw the same thing and I know for sure that the Warriors want to stick it to the Bucks. There are even T-shirts going around in Milwaukee that say "24-1". I would lay the points so fast, it's not even funny. 18½. Milwaukee acted like a bunch of goons in their win over GS and they are getting paid back tonight.
Dec 17, 2015 12:36:05
You can't be 93 games under .500 and still be in the black unless you are real good at finding value wagers. Most years Sherwood has been a lot closer to .500 and when he is, the profits follow. Looking forward to 2016!
Joel
Thank you Joel
Dec 15, 2015 22:24:37
This man is the best handicapper on the planet, I will not allow anyone to speak ill of this man, I have learned so much from him and today I am a trillion times better thanks to his tutelage. The NFL is nearly impossible to predict, but his Betfair methodologies on the NBA and Horse Racing and his knowledge of hockey is so comprehensive that 99% of the betting world I guarantee would learn copious amounts of information from him. If you are going to troll my friend's page, please keep it to yourself and find someone who you think is better...I guarantee you, you won't.
Keith
Thanks you Keith.
Dec 15, 2015 20:32:05
Hey sherman, luv to read your insights - I read them every day! but i am from canada where i have to play parlays. i understand the value you are chasing, but i have been doing pretty good (selectively, lately) betting against you - 4 days & counting (hopefully 5 as i bet against the canucks tonight). this is not meant to bash you as i luv the free service you supply. please keep up the good work as i find your insight excellent!! i have been following this site since randall was here & i use your info to supplement my own handicapping. it would be nice if you were to offer a daily 2 game parlay, thus avoiding the value picks we see daily. just my opinion but please keep the information coming!!!
fenway freak
Thanks Fenway but you are not forced to play parlays (I assume you are talking about pro-line), you choose to play pro-line instead on betting online. That's a big mistake because the same parlays you are hitting on pro-line pay much more at a traditional on-line sportsbook. There is no excuse whatsoever for folks to be playing pro-line when there are better options. Again, when the government is the house, you have no shot whatsoever but I do appreciate the kind words.
Dec 15, 2015 20:26:44
Your prediction of the NY Rangers being a .500 club at best will be as bad as your prediction on the Texas Rangers.
Don
That's the best you can do Don? Really?
Dec 15, 2015 15:01:23
Vinnie, no way is sherwood the worst handicapper on the planet. The NFL is probably the hardest sports to figure out, the fact that teams only play once a week doesn't help either. Bad bounces happen, penalties, injuries, they are impossible to predict. Over the course of the season, this website has won me more games than it has lost. Who could have predicted that the Bengals and the Broncos both would lose? This week if Carolina loses, it wouldn't be a surprise. Any team can win at anytime, that is what makes it so hard. Keep plugging away Sherwood, things will turn around. thanks for all of your plays each day.
Tim
Thank you Tim.
Dec 15, 2015 10:34:01
Hands down..u r the worst NFL capper that exists on this planet..all your logics sound good but u can't seem to pick the right team..
Vinnie
Well Cousin Vinnie, it's not an easy sport to handicap. I'm not making excuses for this year but let me just say that I have a winning NFL record in eight of the last 11 years. To expect to beat this sport every year is unreasonable. This is a "what have you done for me lately" business so I understand your sentiments. All I can do is apply the same theories that have been working for years and let the chips fall where they may. Hands down, you have the worst understanding of this on the planet.
Dec 13, 2015 22:16:01
Shout out to Joel, good message, you will find that Sherwood gets a little stubborn now and then, and won't admit he is wrong. We should start a thread, he continually hates Henrik Lundquist, the guy is terrible etc, laugh my ass off when he starts this!. I personally enjoy it and like I say all the time, it is entertaining. Plus despite these few hiccups, which I enjoy, the guy usually knows what he talks about.
TOM
Tom, I have not said a negative thing about Queen Henrik all year. Last year, I did but not this year...yet.
Dec 12, 2015 12:11:49
I don't have a betting interest in game but honestly don't like the first paragraph of your write up on Bills game for 2 reasons. Anytime there are blocked punt TD, return TD or Interception return TD it will likely lead to the team giving up those scores outgaining the team scoring the points. When all 3 occur in the same game the difference is even more pronounced. I'm sure NE still would have outgained them by a mile but it is a pretty clear issue to consider. Secondly, not sure I agree Philly will be in a letdown spot here at all. In fact I pretty strongly disagree with it. They were a team with division expectations and although they don't have the record expected, they are in a tie for the division lead and a playoff spot is quite achievable. Buffalo is actually favoured in this game and although I like their team they haven't played well. This should be a good game and I actually hope the Bills win but I don't see any value on them in Philadelphia at this price.
skeeter
Duly noted Skeeter. Philly is indeed in contention but that's by default. They are garbage. They were garbage last week and they've been garbage all year. If they don't have a letdown, they are still the inferior team here by a mile. If they do have a letdown, they'll likely lose by 4 TD's or something like that. Thanks for writing and I especially like that you checked in BEFORE the game started.
Dec 12, 2015 09:09:24
Sherwood A brilliant pick with the Charlotte Hornets on the road over Memphis Friday night. The way you broke it down it just made sense and after a lot of research I hit it big on the ML and PS. My daughter's university tuition thanks you once again! I beg you for more NBA picks on a regular basis. Keep up the great work sir!
Larry
Thank you Larry. NBA has always been a tough sport for me and that's why I stopped playing it regularly. However, over the past two years I have been paying very close attention to it and studying different approaches than the one's I was using before. I was even making "mock" wagers with moderate success (it's easy to bet with fake money). In any case, I'm more confident now and trust myself to come up with more winners than losers. You will therefore see more plays but they will be very selective. Thanks for writing and I'm so glad you were able to cash in on that game.
Dec 8, 2015 21:03:13
You are 1-7 going on 1-8 in games involving the Hurricanes the past 30 days. I have had runs like this in the past where I just can't pick a certain teams' games correct. It is just so incredibly frustrating, especially when it is sometimes for and sometimes against the same club. Will you continue to play Canes games, or start to ignore them on the schedule?
Joel
I will not ignore them Joel, the thinking that a team has your number is a little absurd if you really think about it. My model is playing value and as much as I hate to pull the trigger on the 'Canes, there is too much value not too. Hopefully, they'll give Eddie Lack a chance to start a bunch of games in a row and get this thing headed in the right direction. As long as the 'Canes remain under-priced, you will see them on my slate often. Best of luck Joel.
Dec 6, 2015 17:39:21
Covers.co reports everyone on Chicago Black Hawks. The game just started so I have no idea of the outcome. But, Sherwood, thank you so much for your insights, as usual. Very impressive and although I may not take the other side, I avoided this game. Great stuff, always enjoy your articles, and it is FREE! Thank you
TOM
Nov 28, 2015 17:52:46
Sherwood... Youre an idiot... bahhhh Just kidding. Thanks for the back to back anti Rangers bets yesterday and today. I played Philly yesterday as well and hit... They seem to hold a tonne of value at this point in the season, especially since they have started to limit the GA in the past couple of weeks. I love the fade views on your NHL picks, they have helped me out a lot over the past season and a half. Keep up the great work, and please don't get discouraged by all of the mail you get regarding your knowledge on sportswagers. ...just maybe tidy up some of the language on twitter and lay of the zebras... They are what they are, and they always have been that way. Thanks again my friend!
Dingle
Thanks Dingle, appreciate the feedback and I will lay off the twitter comments because you are right on the money with your assessment. It is what it is and always will be. Thanks for writing.
Nov 28, 2015 09:59:31
The Canes were the right side last night, but once again inept play in the crease cost us our ticket. More frustrating was being against Buffalo immediately on the heels of backing them for consecutive losses. I find that when I switch after backing a side for multiple losses, that is usually when they find a way to win.
Joel
When Carolina loses it does not surprise me. They are always a risk because their goaltending is so bad. That said, they are a solid team that will continue to haver value when offered a price and therefore I will continue to play them.
Nov 26, 2015 09:35:04
Sherwood : Let me guess that 80 + % of your bets would be single bets & very few parlays & if a parlay a 2 teamer: to me that would be the best way to look & bet for Value: Looking forward to your return : Many thanks for your effort: Great night last night aye! Your Silent Follower: Mr. B.
Mr. W. Baxter
You are right Mr. B in that 80% + of my wagers are flat bets. However, a two-team, three-team or any number of teams parlay all have great value as long as they are money line parlays. For instance, a two-team parlay using the point-spread has no value and you can expect to lose money by playing them over time. The same holds true for any point-spread parlays whether it's 2, 3, 4 or 6 team parlays. However, a money-line parlay, no matter how many teams you use, offers up the true value of hitting it and if you are playing undervalued teams, that parlay will actually be paying more than it should be. In general, each wager has a 50% or ½ probability of winning. If we are trying to determine the probability of hitting a parlay using the point-spread, we just multiply ½ by the number of bets we are making. The probability of hitting a two team parlay is ½ by ½ = ¼. We will win one parlay out of four. Another way to express this is to say that the fair odds are 3-1. A normal payout for a two team parlay is 13-5. Here is how the house edge is calculated: Expectation = [1/4 x (+13)] + [3/4 x (-5)]= -2/4= -0.5. Therefore the house edge is 10%. That’s something that will cost you money over the long haul. The more teams you bet in a parlay, the bigger the house edge gets. However, a two-team parlay using money line underdogs pays out the true odds plus…..Take two teams at +120 for instance for let’s say $50. You win the first game and it pays $60, add the $50 original bet and therefore you would have 60 +50 = a $110 bet onto team #2 at +120. That wins and pays $132.00. Therefore 132 +110 = 242.00 would be the payout for your 2-team parlay minus the $50 original wager. 242-50 =192. Your two team money line parlay would profit $192.00. If you lose 3 of them and win 1, you will therefore show a profit of 42.00 whereas on a point-spread parlay you would show a net loss with the same results. The point is Mr. B, never bet point-spread parlays and always bet money line parlays. In answering your question, I bet two and three game parlays frequently but they are always on money line games. Not sure if this makes any sense but it doesn't have to. Please trust me when I say to NEVER bet point-spread parlays and always bet MONEY line Parlays on underdogs. Thanks as always Mr. B.
Nov 25, 2015 22:00:40
Sherwood, you lying S.O.B., we waited all morning Sunday for your CFL picks and it ended up for not. Okay, your off the hook this week. EDMONTON in a LANDSLIDE! FREE MONEY would love for Ottawa to beat the Esks but not going to be close. Cheers
TOM
Edmonton in a landslide it is. Your pick is duly noted Tom and now on record. Best of luck.
Nov 25, 2015 13:21:46
Hey Sherwood, I'm curious to know what your stance is on the flyers as a team this season. Not just today but an overall level, is this team worthy of a value pick from time to time. I have a such a hard time reading this team, they don't come across as a rebuilding team and they have some good key players. Weak goaltending and offensively challenged on most nights, but they do compete. Just curious especially playing in the Barclays centre for the first time im trying to convince myself there's value there tonight. Thanks.
Eric
Eric: I was so damn close to playing the Flyers today and probably would have if the Islanders were coming off a couple of wins. My take on the Flyers is similar to yours. Some good forwards and a definite threat to score goals. My problem with them is on defense, where by the third period, they are usually running around in their own end. I also prefer Neuvirth to Mason and Mason is confirmed for tonight. That said, the price is juicy enough to make this a worthwhile wager because one has to give the Flyers a chance here. I may have missed the boat on this one but I did look at it trying to find a strong enough reason to back Philly. It was hard to do other than the fact that they have some good forwards. Is there value tonight? Probably so but I preferred the others. If you like them, play them, as I never try and talk someone out of a wager. Best of luck!
Nov 23, 2015 19:16:42
Hey Sherwood, It seems like you and I are the only one's who like the Pats tonight. After seeing all the public money come in on the Bills I was going to lay off. That is until I saw and read your column. Awesome as always.... sportswagers.ca
David
Thanks David.
Nov 23, 2015 16:18:41
You're certainly a good handicapper and I love the in depth analysis. However these NCAAB picks are unreal. They seem too good to be true! Are you psychic? Talk about nailing it every time.
Cam
Ha ha...Thanks Cam....it sure has been a great start so I'll ride it for as long as it lasts.
Nov 21, 2015 06:13:31
I've been a fan of you and sportswagers for a very long time, referred here by Randall the Handle. Win or lose, you have done the research that I don't have time to do every day. To that I salute you and thank you! I'm just a casual bettor, but do bet mostly for entertainment purposes. Don't get me wrong, I like winning more than losing lol.. Speaking of winning, your warming up real nice lately! Clean sweep last night which I followed and did 4 game parlay with the 3 hockey and the ncaa bb game.. Thanks again just thought I'd post for once..cheers and keep it going no matter what.
Jeff
Jeff: Thanks so much for taking the time to write. Your message of acknowledgement and thanks made my day and keeps me highly motivated daily. Best of luck, always...
Nov 21, 2015 01:50:52
Nice sweep tonight brotha - you've deserved better of late!
Feddz
Hey Feddz, thanks for the message. Truly.
Nov 21, 2015 00:31:36
Great job my friend, I really hesitated on MTL and CBJ. Bobrovsky looked back to his old self, can't believe that game was that easy. That line climbed to around -175 around puck drop. Something seemed off there but in our favour anyway. Montreal had ridiculous value, thanks for the great picks. I also cashed in on Calgary.
Eric
Columbus was also down two regular defensemen so they were playing with just four D-men the entire game. That had influence on line as well. The score was a bit flattering to the Jackets as well Eric, as they were outshot badly but Pekka Rinne allowed three goals on 12 shots and the Preds were in a deep hole early. Anyway, the price was right and it was a good night all around. Glad you cashed too! Gotta stick with it and grind away. Thanks for writing.
Nov 20, 2015 22:07:08
Are you going to post anything on CFL this weekend?
TOM
Tom: I will have CFL East and West finals posted on Sunday morning.
Nov 20, 2015 14:03:55
Just a couple of things I want you to touch bases on. The preds opened as a -130 and recently spiked to -165.. Does that raise any flags or is there any particular reason you can think of for that big of a rise?.. As well, the islanders being favoured here by this much scares me, I find this very similar to th Sharks @ islanders game earlier in the season where NYI was a -155, and you were all over it because of the fact the Sharks were on fire and that line made no sense. With price confirmed I imagined this line be close to even but again I'm probably wrong, just curious if you see the same things here.
Eric
When i saw Nashville jump to that price, I looked for a reason as to why and I found it. Initially, it was projected that Pekka Rinne was going to get the night off so backup Carter Hutton was projected to start. When Rinne was announced the line shot up. Rinne is considered elite but you know my position on him. I'm thrilled he is in net. As for the Habs, I don't think line is off. Islanders are still 8-2-1 at home and have won 2 straight while Price may be rusty and Montreal has dropped three of four. Montreal is also playing back-to-backs. Market doesn't like back-to-backs. Good observations Eric that I was aware of before posing and so I took extra time to look into it. BEST OF LUCK!
Nov 19, 2015 18:41:38
I noticed on the webinar you did for basketball you mentioning when a line looked off for example the Sacramento Kings vs Atlanta Hawks. Could you tell us what to look for so we can spot lines that are off? Thank you.
P
That's a good question and an interesting one too. A line is off or curious when it looks too easy. Atlanta was just a -3 point fav at home against Sacramento and to me that line looked short. Anyone that follows this sport would likely think the same thing. Sac is an average squad that is weak on road team while Atl was an East Power last season. When a line looks short, I call that "off". We can apply that same theory in the NFL almost weekly, as the Raiders are a -1 point favorite in Detroit. That looks like a curious line, which suggests that the Lions are a "live" dog.
Nov 19, 2015 00:39:20
Sherwood: Thanks for all your great work, as usual following you every day. Your insight and picks to. Looking for value is paying off for me: Mr. B
Mr, W, Baxter
You're welcome Mr. B. Glad to hear you are doing well. Always good to hear from you and thanks so much for taking the time to write from time to time. Stay in touch.
Nov 17, 2015 23:57:54
Rough NFL and NHL season to date. Wonder if Frank is doing any better? Write ups are nice to read but have you been thinking of going strictly exchange. Supposedly it's working better for you. But that way we can't really see how your doing. Maybe you'll enjoy less hate mail.
Steve
Rough? Even after losing 8 straight, I'm still plus in the NHL. We are six weeks into the season. NFL? Perhaps a little rough but not disastrous and there is a long way to go. I end up in the black every year. I have been ending in the black every year for 12 years straight so while the exchange has been good, traditional betting helps with the bottom line every year. I don't get hate mail Steve, I get mail from trolls with miserable lives that have nothing better to do and frankly, they can write me all they want and it bothers me not. I honestly couldn't care less. So, we'll continue to grind it out every day and look for value in the numbers and hope for the best. At the end of this year, I will be in the black again (up 49 units as of right now) just like I am every year.
Nov 17, 2015 14:25:47
Sherwood - I see your note above about the LA Kings being -0.5 +110 at Bet365 where I wager, but I cannot find that wager on the site - only -1.5 +190 for the game. They don't seem to offer a wager for anything less than a goal...what am I missing?
Dave
Dave: go to BET365 and then to hockey then to 3 way. In the 3 way section on the far right under money line you will see L.A. +105 right now. That is the same as -½ because that money line is in regulation only. If the game ties in regulation, it is a loss. At some places they call it 3-way betting. This should help.
Nov 16, 2015 18:56:05
Big canucks party Last night in Montreal au the resto where prise is part owner you can bet hausse minus the 1.5 reg easy$$$
Ll cool jp
Yep, big party only Montreal didn't show up until the 3rd period.
Nov 14, 2015 11:30:20
I'm not sure if you watched the entire Sharks/Wings game last night, but your perception on that game is way off. The Red Wings played terrible, those shots on net do not tell you they were the better team, they rarely had a high quality scoring chance and when they did they shot it right at Jones. The Sharks were sound defensively, all over the red wings when attacking. The Sharks battled for every puck, and played a solid D game. Offensively, yeah they were brutal but they forced several turnovers which almost always resulted in a good scoring chance. Detroit may have outplayed them on an overall level, but the Sharks were protecting a lead the final 2 periods, and did just that. Detroit only had what, 6 or 7 shots in the 3rd? For being down 2, and "dominating", don't you think they'd had more chances than that?
Eric
I have had this argument many times in the past Eric. Sometimes two people watching the same game see it completely differently. I respect your perception of what you saw but what I saw was a Detroit team that had the puck the entire game while San Jose was chasing them. In the end, it does not matter because San Jose won and the final score is what gets the money.
Nov 13, 2015 13:13:16
Great podcast Sherwood, you should do your own each day or weekly.
Mike
Thanks man. I appreciate that very much.
Nov 12, 2015 11:51:57
Sherwood would you have played Edmonton +160 last night if it were the only number available to you... or would you have passed?
MLB LINE SNIPER
it's easy for me to say now but yes and many people know that I'll play lower money lines if I miss the best number but will not play a bad point spread number.
Nov 11, 2015 06:45:09
I guess we should have been on the Leafs and Sabres again last night. From now on, I'll keep my suggestions to myself and let you make the calls.
Joel
Ha ha Joel. I'm mad at myself for not playing at least one of them last night but they'll be more opportunities to play them, as well as a bunch of other undervalued squads. Cool message though. I got a chuckle out of it this morning. Onto tonight.
Nov 10, 2015 22:54:42
Hey..Sherwood..just a quick note to say thanks ... I got it now...sorry i was a bit slow off the mark... You are very generous rare in this business. I feel I should offer you % or fee for your valuable knowledge?..i made a killing last night thx to you.. Just wanted you to know it was very appreciated and needed... thx again for helping launch me on my new career.. best dan As you know sick value on Buff tonight +215 my obj. line Buff -120 ~15% value.. Best dan
Dan
Dan: Thanks for the kind gesture but it is not necessary. I"m happy to see folks win money. I feel fortunate to be able to do what I do for a living and always like to help out others to get an edge or make a few extra bucks. Continued success Dan. Thanks for taking the time to write.
Nov 8, 2015 11:09:43
I really agree with your analysis of the Indy/Den game but I'll take the points offered instead of straight up. I'm also expecting a big game from the Jets D in a walkover over the Jags......Bortles will try to make things happen and inevitably turn it over (perhaps 2+ times). Fond of Philly also, but haven't played it yet. Best of luck and thanks for your dedication to this site again.
Magus
You're welcome Magus. I enjoy doing it very much. The points on Indy looked like good insurance after that comeback but in thew end, the ML won out. So did the points. The Jets, on the other hand.......well, you might have been a week early on them. This is the week that the Jets are playable. Write up forthcoming.
Nov 7, 2015 11:43:28
Love your work, but taking the Leafs and Sabres every night (and day) doesn't seem like a recipe for success.
Joel
We shall see Joel. I think it is a recipe for success because both are undervalued, especially Buffalo. Results don't always tell the true story of how a team is playing. We see it in every sport every year and Buffalo is playing well and so are the Leafs.
Nov 5, 2015 13:40:48
Nice season so far in hockey Sherwood. The only team I stayed away from as a dog is the leafs. Just cant lay money on them lol.
Noodles
Nov 4, 2015 18:53:53
Hey there Sherwood. Appreciate the time you take to offer nightly selections. Am hoping you will offer up NBA selections as the season progresses. Do you network with other handicappers (particularly Randall the Handle) to come up with your selections? Keep up the good work.
David
Thanks David....Unfortunately, there will be very few NBA selections this year because it's a sport I have never been able to beat and I'm not about to try again. It's just not worth the risk for me. I will, however, have college basketball selections all season. As far as "networking", I correspond with some sharp and respected people in the handicapping business such as Randall, whom I speak to almost daily. There are many others I follow and correspond with on Twitter to gather the best and most info I can on all sports. Thanks for taking the time to write.
Nov 4, 2015 11:03:47
TRULY GREAT JOB STAYING TRUE TO YOUR SYSTEM AND PREVAILING IN THE MLB SEASON! YOUR WORK TRUMPS ALL!!!
MLB LINE SNIPER
Thank you for saying so. Boy, was that a rough couple of months that had me lying awake at night on occasion but in hindsight, it was a good lesson to stick with it.
Nov 2, 2015 09:18:31
Congrats on the World Series prediction Sherwood. You nailed it, among four out of five other series picks. Very glad I wagered on the Royals thanks to your analysis which was right on the money. My first inclination was to bet the Mets with that great starting pitching they had but your breakdown changed my mind. Great pick on the Sabres last night too. It's fucking amazing to me that people try and beat you down when things aren't going so well. Idiots. As far as I'm concerned, you are gracious, generous and provide a great service for beginners or experienced bettors that have an open mind and want to learn something. It is not said enough but THANK YOU again Sherwood.
Pat from Kitchener
Thanks Pat. Your message made my day and I appreciate the time you took to write it. Those bashing fools do not phase me in the least. Eventually they all go away like all cockroaches.
Nov 1, 2015 16:16:02
I appreciated your write-up on the Bears/Vikes game today. Took a chance on the Bears, not my usual habit. Chastised myself for not giving Cutler enough credit when he threw the ball up to Jeffery in the end zone before the half. Cheered you when the Bears were up by 7 late in the fourth...then taught the lesson once again, why I shun the Bears in tight games. Let's hope no late Hallowe'en trick by Manning tonight. Thanks for your analysis, anyways...
Dave
So true Dave....The Vikes are an awfully lucky team. They pulled another rabbit out of their hat in this one. As for the Packers, they just plainly got beat up.
Oct 31, 2015 13:01:55
Being a long time fan of the Flames, I read your analysis of tonight's game between the Flames and Oilers and I could not agree more. While I love the Flames and will be proudly wearing my red jersey at the game, I won't mention to my buddies that I bet Edmonton, Hey, mama needs a new pair of shoes!
TOM
Ha ha....I can relate Tom. I sometimes go to Blue Jays games and my partner will not go with me if I bet the other team. So I tell her I bet the Blue Jays and root for them, secretly rooting for the other side. Go Oilers! Mama needs a new pair of shoes!
Oct 30, 2015 12:49:16
Nice hit on Edmonton last night
Noodles
Thanks man. Nice comeback win and very entertaining game
Oct 27, 2015 21:34:04
Nice pick on the Bruins !
LL Cool JP
Thanks LL Cool. It was a good situational play that worked out perfectly.
Oct 23, 2015 19:14:28
Sherwood. You are an entertaining read. But I gotta ask..where do you pull some of this info from? Your 1st sentence is "Detroit's defense is actually pretty good. LOL. By what metric? They are a one win team that ranks 27th in yards allowed and 29th in points allowed. Keep up the entertaining columns, but please back up these takes with data
Mike
Thank you Mike. Your point is a valid one and I will be more aware of it by backing up statements with data as you suggested. I appreciate the time you took to write.
Oct 23, 2015 08:38:11
Sherwood: I have been a fan of sportswagers.ca since 1998 or so and continue to tune into the site on a daily basis. I must say though that I was blown away by your tutorial that you recently posted. Thank you for posting the NFL/NCAA webinar on the sportswagers site! Since I watched your webinar, I have had great profits wagering in the style you presented. I have applied the method when wagering on PINNACLE since I don\'t have a BETFAIR account. I have applied the method (for lack of a better word as you have stated) successfully to select NHL games through intermission bets and to select NBA preseason games during the end of quarters. Supposedly, PINNACLE has stated that there will be continuous NBA betting with the regular season so I hope it will be a similar scheme as BETFAIR. I can see that they key in all of this is to successfully determine evenly matched games that will flip flop in scores throughout the time period and hit the underdog lines to get out of liability. I do have a few questions though... 1. BETFARE seems to be \"unfair\" in how they apply commissions in general and on winning players. How do you feel about the commissions being charged? Since you pointed out that $200 is about a unit and a half for you that likely means that you are likely working with a $13333 bankroll or so. This means your likely are not getting \"taxed\" that heavily yet since your winnings don\'t exceed $200000. 2. When you get out of a liability for a particular matchup, do you try to then slowly split action between the games if possible or do you try to put all stake on one game, leave the other game at $0 liability, and hope for the the one game to come through and have zero loss if the other game wins? Thanks for taking the time to read this message and I would love to see another webinar when the NBA season starts with you applying this \"method\" to two or more NBA games at the same time. Keep up the good work Sherwood!
Jason
Thanks very much Jason. The commission rates applied by Betfair are fine. You usually pay 5-10% at traditional books and Betfair's rate on all winning bets is 6% or 7%. They increase if you win big but you should only hope to get in that range. About a half of 1% of their users are in that high commission rate. As soon as I get out of a liability, I continue with that game and any others that I'm playing or following. Once you get out of a liability, the profit potential keeps increasing so it would be foolish to just leave it and hope your team wins. That's on Betfair and does not apply to NHL or traditional books that close the live betting at all times except for when the play stops or during commercials. I keep switching back and forth on the dog when the lead changes until late in the game, where I make a decision to cash out or let it all ride on one team. For instance, If I'm at 250 on one team and 0 on the other, I may cash out at that point for 125 each side. I may buy back 50 on one side and leave 200 on the other so I walk away with something. Jason, I will also be running some NBA webinars early in the year and I will record and post them once I do. Thanks for the support over the years and best of luck with the "live betting". It definitely works better on BETFAIR because they are always live while traditional books are only live during commercial breaks and halftime. Thanks again for taking the time to write. I love hearing about the success. Keep in touch
Oct 19, 2015 16:38:51
Sadly, I think you might be right about the Royals. It has been a great run by the Jays, but at the end of the day the Royals are the more complete club and they are in more capable hands. I think brooms might be in order for the Jays.
Joel
Oct 18, 2015 04:41:27
You had your crystal ball out yesterday. Excellent work Sherwood. 1 close game away from an 8-0 day. (Slow clap from the gallery). I love waking up to cash in my account while vacationing in Europe :)
Bowen
Clever Bowen. Love it. Thanks for taking the time to write and enjoy the rest of your vacation in beautiful Europe.
Oct 17, 2015 13:54:47
The Sharks line vs. the Islanders is intriguing but Stalock was announced to be the goalie for the Sharks not Jones is my understanding. I think the Isles are a deserving favourite of -120 or so if Jones were in goal and Couture was healthy. It just becomes more of a question whether Stalock and the injury are worth 5% or more to hurt to their chances to win. I don't know Stalock well at all so anyone's opinion welcome for me. I think these are the likely reasons for the odds in this game. Given that I don't think the linesmakers are doing anything special in this game so I'm not sure you've gone enough to think that the oddsmakers just love the Islanders and are welcoming Sharks money. If you have an angle on Stalock or the Couture injury either for or against the Sharks I think I would go with that to find value. Good luck today!
Skeeter
Stalock was named the starter long after the lines came out although it was presumed that Jones would get a day off. The line is still out of whack in my opinion because under normal circumstances the Islanders would be -125. Books do not want Islander money is my position. Best of luck Skeeter
Oct 16, 2015 22:49:22
Ugh........what a horrendous backdoor cover by the Bluebombers. The CFL is perhaps the most frustrating league to bet on. Horrible coaching, fluke plays, quick late scoring......I'd rather have the 20 minutes of commercials and kneel-downs in the NFL any day over such nonsense. It is what it is though.....Sunday will be better!
Magus
Such an ugly loss that should've never happened and hard to believe it did.
Oct 16, 2015 19:00:03
Sherwood- Enjoy reading your write-ups but wanted to comment on your Browns-Broncos analysis. While, you may well win this bet, I believe you are not being fair ot the Broncos. Yes, they barely covered 4 out of their 5 games with an atrocious offense due to the aging Manning and inept Kubiak but you fail to recognize how strong their defense is. The Broncos have one of the (if not the best) defense in the NFL with an astounding secondary and the two best pass rushers in the game. Meanwhile, Josh McCown is not a top NFL qb as you suggested in your write-up. He had a good game last week against a terrible Baltimore defense that made him look like Dan Marino. Additionally, the Browns are coming off a very emotional OT victory against a division rival and should face a stout defense that will limit their ability to move the ball. My comments are meant to dissuade you from your play as everyone has their own read and feel on a game but just to clarify some misconceptions I noticed in your post. BOL this week.
Dan
Dan: I've been doing this website for a long time and this might actually be the first time that I have received a comment of this nature. It's smart, it's constructive and it's a different perspective than my own. It also arrived before game time. You have made a valid argument for the Broncos. However, from where I sit, I still find the Broncos to be very overvalued. I don't believe they are close to being elite and even their very good defense can't expect to be on the field all game and thrive. We shall see what happens but more importantly, I really appreciate the time you took to write and wish you the best of luck as well. Your comments are duly noted. Sherwood
Oct 15, 2015 08:32:41
Sherwood, thanks for the MLB previews on games you are not betting. They both really helped me make a decision last night in my choices. I'm not a big bettor but I enjoy betting and watching the games, especially playoffs and the challenge of picking a winner. The previews and analysis you provide are always insightful and well thought out and above all, greatly appreciated. Thanks for your site and for keeping it free.
Steve
You're welcome Steve. Thanks for taking the time to write. Your message made my day. Best of luck friend.
Oct 13, 2015 22:47:14
Hi sherwood! First and foremost, thank You for all the the great thorough analysis every day. I hold ur picks in high regards. But damn Big man. I am off the Carolina hurricanes and LA Kings bandwagon. They burned You every F... Night. I mean why You keep rolling with the hurricanes and the kings? I am out Jordan
Jordan
Thanks Jordan. I took the Kings in their home opener and they lost to the Sharks. I have not played them since. In other words, I'm not "rolling" with the Kings. WTF happened to that team? They looked awful again last night, which was probably a missed opportunity for us. As for the 'Canes, well, I still think they're a decent club. They'll get their wins as long as they stick with Eddie Lack in goal. If the price and situation is right, I'll keep playing them because I honestly trust they'll be very competitive all season with Lack in net. The advanced stats say so.
Oct 12, 2015 11:50:08
I agree with your write up on Game 4 of the Royals-Astros pick today, but you need to alter your point on Keuchel starting both of the games the Astros have won. McHugh started game 1.
The Law
Thanks Law. I have corrected that error and I thank you for taking the time to write and give me the heads up on it. Best of luck.
Oct 10, 2015 19:08:27
Two questions. Do you go into an NFL week with an eye on certain games that you think will be likely to be good in-game Betfair plays (i.e. high over/under,lots of offense)? Also what's the best live score site? Always seem to be lags on NFL.com even lags when following a video stream online.Can tell because the odds move then there\'s a big play after. Haven\'t hit it big yet on inplay but was in line to have a huge cash out on Thursday before the fumble. Cheers, Derek
Derek
Yes Derek, I usually have my eye on some games but I keep an open mind because as you know, anything can happen in a game. After the games start, I keep my eye on anything that looks like it could be one of those back-and-forth shootouts. As for a live score site...I have found flashscore.com to be right up to the second with no lag time...
Oct 10, 2015 12:02:13
Seems to be some easy money in NHL tonite, Montreal -110 and Ottawa -130. Habs own Bruins and Boston is in rebuild, as far as the Leafs are concerned, well, enough said,
TOM
I don't know if there is such a thing as easy money. Indeed they both look good but Toronto has only been outshot in two periods this year and might not be as bad as advertised. Montreal has owned Boston and Boston was pasted on Thursday so the Habs seem like the obvious play. Thing is Tom, the entire betting world are on both Ott and Mon and that isn't usually a good sign. I'm not saying you are wrong but I'm personally staying away from both those games. GOOD LUCK!
Oct 9, 2015 18:21:45
Brilliant work with the Rangers. Tough to go against the Jays, but the value was all on Texas and you have to go with that. Oh, and I see you are back in the black for the month and year. And all the naysayers have gone back into hiding, presumably a little bit lighter in their wallets.
Joel
I honestly don't think those people fade me like they say they do. They are just miserable folks that troll the internet wishing they had money to bet with. I'm sure some fade me from time to time but those people read the writeups and make a decision and say nothing about it. Anyway, thanks Joel, I just played the value and it worked out this time.
Oct 8, 2015 14:55:43
As a Sabres seasons ticket holder I can tell you that you are going to be disappointed by the crowd if you are expecting the First Niagara Center to be the loudest building in the league. Sabres fans are taking a wait-and-see approach to the season and there are plenty of tickets still available on the secondary markets. You might be right on the selection, but I doubt the crowd will have anything to do with it.
Chris G.
Oh, well thanks very much for taking the time to write in Chris. As a season ticket holder, you would have a better sense of what's happening than I would. I assumed their was a ton of excitement and anticipation in Buffalo but you cleared that misconception up. Enjoy the game. GO SABRES!
Oct 8, 2015 13:44:16
Because I have been reading your website for years, I will bet single game hockey regularly for the first time this year. How do you feel about Boston, they are a popular public pick and are usually overpriced and I think they will be terrible this year. I'm planning to attack them often starting tonight.
Pete
We'll see Pete. I don't think Boston will be terrible, that's for sure, however, I do agree that the Jets are a live dog here. Best of luck
Oct 7, 2015 19:24:58
I am not sure I understand the minus half a goal. I am currently looking at bet365 three way an I would like to take Clgy minus a half. I see the line is minus 1 plus 215 and the money line is plus 120. The money line tie is plus 250. How do I get to minus half a puck?
Bob
Bob, the money line IS minus a half puck. It's in REGULATION ONLY. Although it is not written -½ +120, that is precisely what it is. In other words, it's a regulation bet. Your team must win in regulation or the bet loses, therefore Calgary +120 would be exactly the same as Calgary -½ +120. If Calgary would have won in regulation, the bet gets paid off.
Oct 7, 2015 13:22:56
I see your hockey picks today have Calgary minus a half goal. What is the rationale for laying a half puck when there are no ties in hockey? If so how does one lay a half a puck on bet365?
Bob
a -½ puck bet in the NHL means that the wager will be decided after regulation. In other words, if it ends in a tie after regulation, the bet loses. At BET365, you have to go to three way lines. That means you are betting either a tie, or a side (two sides) to win in regulation, therefore there are 3 possible outcomes. Either the visitor wins in regulation, the home team wins in regulation, or it ends in a tie...thus, the 3-way lines. A three way line is essentially the same thing as a laying a half puck. Hope this helps Bob.
Oct 5, 2015 12:37:25
The Pirates analysis continues to be hysterical. They might get MadBummed with Arrieta but hey, they lose as often as you win. Yankees under Rangers under Keuchel and Quintana... (who ?) equal in talent The hits keep coming, just for the other team.
Carl
What did I say that was wrong? You're going to tell me that the Pirates defense is good? That Cervelli is good? That they can hit? Tell me what is good about them. Actually, I kinda hope that Pitt beats Chicago in one game so I can attack them in the next round and make more.....and about Quintana...He had a 3.36 ERA over 206 innings pitching half his games in a huge hitter's park. Here's what one of the top pitching scouts in baseball wrote about him today..after the season. It's amazing to me how unnoticed Quintana went all season. Every time I watched him, hitters could not square up on him. His skills have 'staff anchor' written all over them and his strikeout/GB% combination with fine control create an excellent foundation moving forward.....So, you want to talk about something you know nothing about, go ahead, knock yourself out.
Oct 2, 2015 23:18:22
The bad beats just keep on coming. Hamilton player, while getting to his feet, inadvertently kicks ball out of a teammates arms as he's on his way to a possible TD. I thought I had seen everything. And on the same night that Weaver recaptures the form that made him a star. Or were the Rangers just too hungover? It's frustrating to continually feel like you are on the right side of a wager, and not get the results.
Joel
At the end of the day Joel a loss is a loss. Over time it all equals out. That said, about 20 things had to go wrong for Hamilton to lose that game. A delay of game at the end that would have at least sent the game into OT. A 2-yard punt followed that delay that put Calgary in a position to kick that winning FG. Aside from the turnover you mentioned, a play as bizarre as any, Hamilton turned it over three times in the span of about 40 seconds in the second quarter. Bounce after bounce went against them. Frustrating for sure. Right pick, wrong result but excuses do nobody any good. We just have to stick with it, play the value and the results will follow. Lots of good results are coming our way.
Oct 2, 2015 13:20:06
Hi Sherwood, I log on here everyday and enjoy reading your game to game analysis. I can see where you're coming from with your Texas pick and it makes a lot of sense, but I have the Angels tonight and here's why. Texas has been playing playoff baseball for the entire second half pretty much and clinched a playoff spot last night. I believe they will give some of their key players a breather tonight (similar to the Jays yesterday). LA still has a chance to make the post-season and will do what they can to win the game. Best bet for tonight in my opinion is a parlay. Angles, Twins, Astros. All the best and keep up the great work!! R
R
Thanks R. I appreciate the support and kind words. Howewver, I have to disagree with you. You see, Texas has clinched a playoff spot. That means they could still be a WILD card team and play a one and done game. One win in this series clinches the AL West and the celebration will take place once that occurs, just like the Jays and Dodgers. Big game for both tonight so Texas will not rest anyone.
Sep 29, 2015 14:53:23
Colon is pitching tonight. You've made us a lot of money fading him at high prices. Any value in Philly at a +170 at home?
Cam
I would have to think there is value Cam. However, Colon has absolutely owned the Phillies. It's a game I struggled with in deciding what to do but in the end, I decided against it mainly because Philadelphia's pitcher is brutally awful.
Sep 29, 2015 01:05:57
Sherwood, I must send you my appreciation. After reading your write-up for the MNF game I cashed in huge. I was back and forth on that game all week. Then I saw your insight and followed. Needless to say it was a big win. Thank you very much. Once again just a awesome sports wagering site
David
Glad you cashed in David. Not often we get a rocking chair game like that but when we do, it sure is nice. Thanks for taking the time to write in. Now it's on to Week 4!
Sep 25, 2015 15:47:30
I loved your write up on the Giants as well. I calculated a score of 24 - 16 N.Y. and was thinking of taking them at -7 nice + money at one of your sponsors' alt. point spread lines. However, I chickened out and instead settled for -4 -105.
Brian Hayward
Thank you Brian. I always like to hear about peeps cashing bets!
Sep 25, 2015 12:27:57
Bang on with your write up on the Giants last night. Eli was very effective, took care of The ball and played a great game. Fairy easy cover there. Nice hit on the Rays as well, I inplayed them when they were down 2-0 in the fifth, nice pay out there. Keep up the good work.
Eric
Thanks Eric. As you know,I'm not an X and O guy so I'm always looking for a psychological or other edge because of it. Some games you see things clearly and it works out.
Sep 25, 2015 11:43:22
Sherwood , do you have a favorite site for reliable NFL injury reports?
Mike
Mike: I'm not sure if there is such a thing. The reports are updated daily and even they are not accurate. It's been said before that management doesn't provide accurate one's either. I have a paid subscription to injury reports and then I go to ESPN or ROTOworld and get the same report. I have yet to find a reliable source because I honestly don't think one exists.
Sep 23, 2015 21:31:30
Not trying to get to far ahead of ourselves, but, any thoughts which playoff matchups would be most favourable for the Jays?
Sherwood
I don't think the Jays have match-up problems with anyone in the AL. The only team I see them having difficulty against is New York because Yanks pitching has the potential to be great.
Sep 22, 2015 21:53:07
I enjoy reading covers.com for information, do you recommend any other neutral sites?
Phil
Phil: I check out so many every day for info. Fangraphs is great for baseball and so is cleanuphitter.com
Sep 21, 2015 10:44:50
Sherwood!!! Thanks for the picks on the great day on Saturday for CFB. I hit a sick sick 8 team parlay (I know it's -EV but I still play them for excitement value.) I had 4 of your picks, didn't take Bowling Green, And had Auburn, Texas, NIU and Vtech, Can't thank you enough for those and really glad you came out of the losing streak.
Pete
Very cool Pete. So glad you hit. I have no issues whatsoever with anyone "taking a shot" for a big payout. The entertainment value alone makes them so worthwhile. Anyway, I'm really happy to see anyone win money and I'm glad you wrote to let us know.
Sep 20, 2015 13:10:56
Hi, I was just curious about the buy-back on the Dallas game. With the line movement to +7, isn't Dallas money what the books are trying to get? They may have gotten too much Philly money and needed Dallas money late to cover their ass. There are a 1000 ways to try and outsmart the books so there's no real science to it but this is just my interpretation. I'm riding Philly as it was one of the only two games I played today (along with Winnipeg). As always, keep up the good work and best of luck!
Magus
Magus: The books don't take a position. The money that is bet after the initial line comes out dictates the line movement. In the case with Dallas/Philly, Philly is a -5 point favorite on Sunday morning. Money comes in all day on Philly, thus revealing that the market is hammering the Eagles. The oddsmakers have to increase the line in an attempt to "balance the books". So yes, the books are trying to get Dallas money indeed but the fact that the "public money" was on Philly is always a red flag for me, especially when it is late money. That is the reason I came off the Eagles. Good inquiry and sorry for not answering yesterday. Thanks, and best of luck to you too.
Sep 20, 2015 11:48:01
Hi Sherwood.. I'd be interested in seeing more discussion on using betfair for the NFL. The thursday night game between KC / Denver was more proof this is probably the best way to approach these games (you had a good writeup on this one, btw). I'm not sure how to describe the ending of that game.. it was worse than a coin flip, if ever there was such a thing.
Kevin
NFL is crazy stuff when it comes to wagering and so I wholeheartedly agree with you about wagering on the exchange as being the best way to bet football (and basketball). Hopefully, you'll be able to attend my next one.
Sep 19, 2015 13:14:34
I'd love to see a live broadcast of your Sunday betfair routine wheeling back and forth between all of the games. I'm getting better, but still miss a few spots here and there.
Kale
Kale: I'm going to attempt to record the next one. I have attempted this before but they are long and seldom turn out in their entirety. Hopefully, you'll be able to attend the next one too.
Sep 18, 2015 12:41:38
What's your take on these 2 picks today? Athletics and Mets. Both seem to have significant value tonight, Oakland in Houston, who is returning from a nasty trip that not only damages their division hopes but their playoff hopes as well. Oakland piled on some runs in Chicago, pitching matchup favours Houston as well as minute maid park but the value just seems real to me. The pressure may be finally getting to the Astros. As for the mets, I see value as a home dawg playing their interstate rivals. Matz is no joke. Just curious as to what you may see here? Thanks.
Eric
Eric: I was close to playing the Mets. In fact, had I put up four plays today instead of three, my next one was going to be the Mets. However, Tanaka's filthy stuff and Matz's inexperience prevented me from stepping in. That doesn't mean the Mets are a bad play. I also looked at Oakland and completely understand your sentiments. When the chips were down when it mattered most in Texas, the Astronauts were awful. That said, it should come as no surprise, as they've been very average on the road all season. At home, Houston is a different team and Felix Doubront is a pitcher that has been passed over by every team in the league, not once but twice. Houston looked frazzled in Texas but I'm not crazy about fading them at home against Doubrount. Still, I have been wrong a lot this year. If you see value and trust they have a great shot, go for it. I do not like to dissuade anyone from making a bet that they think is a good one. Whatever you decide, I hope it works out. Best of luck man.
Sep 18, 2015 11:12:15
Hi Sherwood. Missed the NFL seminar but have seen the NBA back in Feb. My question is an obvious one but I'll ask. What can one do to play in U.S.? Live in play maybe? And is there any place to play horses in U.S. to bet against that you may know? Thanks for write ups. Looking forward to the NHL....Thanks
David
Sep 17, 2015 14:55:09
Why not just play live Betfair NFL rather than trying to grind out 53% against the spread?
Kale
Kale: You make a great point, as I am playing the NFL on Betfair every weekend. It is the way to go. I gave up betting NBA traditionally a couple of years ago and I'm leaning that way in the NFL more and more every week. Less risk, win more and free roll in a large % of games. Exchange betting is a game changer in my opinion.
Sep 17, 2015 13:58:13
Hi Sherwood. first time posting. You may know me as Puckhandler at TheRx. Any thoughts of the Winnipeg Jets at +4300 to win Stanley Cup.IMO, as a season ticket holder I firmly Believe we are a goalie away from being serious contenders. Jast season we won the season series against Chicago and split against Tampa Bay. We beat up on the weaker teams as good teams are supposed to going undefeated against Edmonton, Buffalo and Toronto. The Ducks were the worst matchup possible for the Jets in the playoffs as we went winless against them in regular season. We should be a good team to wager on the road at +odds as the Jets are not getting any respect as usual from the experts. Good luck this season
Marc
Hey Puck, thanks for writing in. I've always enjoyed reading your opinions. Anyway, I really haven't had a good look at the Jets this year yet but I liked what i saw last year for sure. Even in the playoffs, despite losing 4-0, they were in all those games with a late lead in Anaheim in the first two. The Jets are sound, tough and talented and at 43-1, they are absolutely under-priced. They have to get good goaltending because you can't win without it but that could come via a trade or perhaps one of their guys steps it up and has a great year. In the end, I think you've found so great value there. BEST of luck and see ya soon in the forums!
Sep 17, 2015 11:40:56
Great points LJ. You must be hitting close to 100% with your in depth analysis. Why no thoughts on the win totals win the season, you know, just started? Get back to me in December and i'll give you some solid NFL win totals. FYI-Pirates have a losing record against every team in the NL Central. If you honestly believe the Pirates are anything but average, you are delusional. Find anyone else with meaningful, detailed write-ups like the ones provided for free on this site. I think the Jays RL last night is a great bet-what do you think? Sherwood-keep plugging away. You have many more followers who appreciate all your picks and analysis than you have trolls who come out when things aren't going so well. Any NHL win totals coming this year?
John
I will definitely have a close look at NHL futures this year John and will post them well in advance if I find something worthwhile. Thanks for the support.
Sep 17, 2015 10:59:26
No wonder why your record is what it is. Keep talking yourself into thinking the PIrates are an average team. I love metric geeks like yourself thinking your smarter than the average Joe. Add another 7+ units to the red on your ONLY 2 season win totals.
LJ
Actually you're wrong on two fronts LJ. First, you're wrong about me thinking I'm smarter than the average Joe. In fact. I don't think I'm smarter than anyone. I'm just giving my opinions based on what I observe, just like you are doing by suggesting the Pirates are good based on their W/L record or what you have observed. The second thing you are wrong about is that I think the Pirates are an average team. That's not true either. I was downplaying it a bit. Truth is, I think they're about on par with teams like Oakland, Seattle, Milwaukee and Cincinnati and even that might be a little generous. In other words, I think they're putrid. Lastly, in regards to my 2 team total plays this year that will lose, that's fine too, as the past 13 years prior to this one, my season win totals in baseball have gone 22-6. I'm not including the year I wrote up the Marlins to win the World Series at 100-1. Proof of that can be found in this old thread I located from the Rx: http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=355140
Sep 16, 2015 14:03:33
Hey, I have been following you for years and would just like to thank you for all your time and effort. On another note, I was wondering what your opinion (if any) is on the weekly fantasy sites like DraftKings.
Derrick
Derrick...You're very welcome and I do appreciate the support. As for Fantasy games, I've been playing DFS for about 8 months now and find it to be very enjoyable. I like that you can win a lot for a small entry fee or even nice secondary prizes if you don't finish first. You can buy in for a couple of bucks and even if you never win, for $14 a week or whatever you want to spend, you get a great run for your money every night. Of course I would like to see them take a lesser rake but it is what it is. Consider it your entertainment dollar. If you were to go the movies with a date, that would cost you between 50 and 60 bucks probably. You can play DFS for a a fraction of that and it really adds to the excitement of watching. It's also challenging. Personally, I love it and have no problem recommending it to anyone.
Sep 15, 2015 18:11:26
Great hit on the 2 Monday nighters last night
BS
Thank BS. It's a long swim back from the past eight weeks but I'm trying hard.
Sep 15, 2015 17:52:23
Long time follower and enjoy the free resource you provide all of us each day. Had a question on hedging, in terms of when applied to parlays. Agreeing with your assessment I took ML Atl and SF in a 3 team parlay with NE @ Pickem (thought being belichick generally gives young qbs fits and the line I personally feel is only going to swing towards the public fav patriots as the game approaches, making an even more attractive hedge) that pays approx. 9-1. I'm fairly confident in NE pulling out a win in a close game, but wanted to get your opinion if I should hedge (and for how many units?)1 to brake even on a loss, 2 units, 4.5 and lock myself up a guarantee approx. 4.5 unit win? Love to get your opinion being a longtime pro.
Mike
It might seem great in at first glance (free money, right?), but it does not maximize your potential profits. You have to give yourself about a 50% chance of winning that final game of the parlay. In the long term it would be more beneficial to ride the parlay out so you don’t lose the edge you’ve gained by increasing your odds (e.g. winning the first two games of a 3-team parlay). However, because you bet a ML parlay instead of a traditional point-spread parlay, your odds are 9-1 instead of 6-1. So let's say you wagered 10 parlays at 9-1 and let it ride every time. That would return 900 x5 for a net profit of 4500.00 minus the 500 you would lose on the other 5. Net profit of 4000.00 Let's say you hedged every time for $100 (your initial investment). You hit the same 50% and instead of profiting 4500.00 you now profit just 4000 as your odds drop to 8-1. Take away the same 500 you would lose and and you would have a net of 3500. This may seem counter-intuitive at first, but when you sort it all out, the answer is pretty simple. Don’t hedge your bets on parlays if you want to maximize your profits. Now, if you want to reduce your risk and guarantee a smaller return over the chance at a bigger return, by all means, do so. If you play all the time, do not hedge parlays. In the long run you will profit more by not hedging. Best of luck Mike and good luck with the Pats.
Sep 15, 2015 17:12:50
We both have professions that involve a certain aspect of luck and a large aspect of skill. I bet on sports because it's a welcome change to the routine. I was wondering how much (if at all) you look at previous wagers to see if you missed something or maybe overvalued something. I do that and it accounts for 15% of my time, I will review specific hands and spots and see if my play and read based on the information I had available was correct. I don't do it for sports wagering because there's no serious aspect for me only fun and I don't see it as a winning proposition (unlike you). I don't do a ton of research and most of the time I have no shame in saying it but I shadow cappers I like. I'm really curious, because if I get into a 30k-50k hands losing streak I increase my studying to about 40% of the time, since being away from the virtual felt might be beneficial anyways!!!!
Pete
Pete, I always look over the previous day results and see if I may have missed or overlooked something. I'm always looking for an edge. When I'm going bad, as I have been over the past couple of months, I wake up earlier and get a head start on the days action to be sure I don't miss an opportunity. Even when you are winning, as you know being a poker player, there is no room for complacency. I always take a few hours out a week to go over tape of pitchers, games, periods in hockey to observe as much as I can. I'm sure after a winning day at the tables, you go over some hands that you could have played differently to increase your winnings even more. In the end Pete, I work hard every day and work harder when I'm losing. I'm sure you do too. Thanks for chipping in (no pun intended) and for a cool email. Best of luck
Sep 15, 2015 14:20:18
Long time follower love your work, a couple of questions, what sports books would you use and I thought you bet 10% of your bankroll no matter what your bankroll is
Rob
Rob: It all depends on what your needs are. The best sportsbook is Pinnacle in terms of pointspreads and juice (vigor). If you are an underdog player, Sportsinteraction is a GREAT choice, as the lines on the dogs are usually inflated a half point or more. If you play a lot of favs, Pinnacle is the best. You can take a your of these sportbooks on my home page on the right and make a decision based on what is best for you. In terms of betting 10% of your bankroll, that is incorrect, as I stated on this website, I was using 10% as an example to make it easy. A more practical approach would be to use 2½% of your bankroll on each wager. Best of luck Rob.
Sep 15, 2015 12:43:46
Great reply to George re your present streak . What I do is take a : Positive Mental Attitude with lots of Self Confidence from Napoleon Hill s book Think & Grow Rich . Hope this post helps everyone . : Your silent follower : Mr. W. Baxter
Mr, W, Baxter
Thanks Mr B and sorry for the delay in answering. I've had to sort through some emails. Great recommendation so thanks for sharing.
Sep 14, 2015 17:38:23
Fan of your work and I know you're going through a real tough time (one of the worst I can remember) and I apologize if my timing of this question is poor. You say and pride yourself on your 25+ record betting on sports and claim to not work another job, so how hard is it on your personal life going through such an epic losing streak. When I was younger I tried to make a profession of it as well and realized even making +80-100 units a year was not nearly enough to support myself at the amount I was wagering. Do you have significant money set aside to allow you to live off of just potential winnings or are you just wagering significant amounts of money on each unit. Reason I ask is I can't imagine going through such a streak and not having that weigh heavily on you. Best of luck tonight, you definitely need it
George
No need to apologize George. Your question is a good one. I absolutely do not have another job. A three-month losing streak is really nothing in the grand scheme of things. At the end of the day (this year), I'm only stuck 30 units but there are things I do that are not reflected in my overall record on this site. For instance, half time plays and buying back liabilities when I wager on the exchange are just a couple of examples that reduce my risks. In any form of gambling, losing streaks are inevitable and I have prepared myself for them. You have to. If you knew me and saw me everyday, you would have no idea whether I'm on a 10 week winning streak or a 20 day losing streak. My demeanor remains the same every single day. My moods do not change one bit based on the outcomes. When your mood changes based on that, it's time to move on, bet WAY less or find something else. I remain confident and positive and understand the ups and downs. My model has been working for me for years and years and I'm not going to change it based on a bad run. It'll come around soon but the losing streak does not weight heavily on me one bit. Don't get me wrong, it's frustrating as hell and only an idiot would not care about losing money but when the games are over, there is nothing I can do about the outcome. I can only go to bed and wake up with a positive attitude and I assure you that's precisely what I do. There isn't a single bet I make that I don't think is going to win. I put up 3 plays today and believe wholeheartedly that all three will win. Be positive, stay positive, work hard and things always work out. At least they have for me. All the best George and thanks for a good inquiry.
Sep 14, 2015 15:59:33
Sometimes you have a choice, to laugh or cry. I like that you most often choose to laugh and move forward. I am not saying one should never cry, however those who get get caught up in excessive self pity and making excuses rarely change their circumstance. On to Monday Good Sir!
Scully
Amen to that Scully. Thanks for the encouraging message. I truly appreciate all the support I've been getting from all you good folks.
Sep 14, 2015 12:00:53
not a good call on Tampa. Winston is the next JaMarcus Russell. Will be out of the league in 2 years.
nick
Said Nick after the game was final. By the way, I don't think David Carr will play well against Cinci last Sunday and the Jets are probably a good bet against Cleveland too.
Sep 14, 2015 07:22:26
Well, I think you may have hit rock bottom with the Tampa Bay survivor pick. As I mentioned earlier in the week, I just think that pick was so out-of-character for you. In week 1 there is just no need to back such an unreliable team when you have little or no margin for error. The Sherwood I know would wait to see if the Bucs passed the proverbial eye-test before settling on them for a survivor play. We all have our struggles in this racket, I know I have had more than my share. Right now, I just think you are trying to be too contrarian and perhaps are taking too many games. It's time to take a deep breath, clear your head and get back to basics my friend.
Joel
You warned me Joel. Thanks for the input.
Sep 13, 2015 17:58:32
Hey Sherwood thanks for all the work. As strictly an observer over the last few months, I was on when it was going well and after giving back a large portion of my winnings I sat and watched. Kind of glad I did. However, I'm still a believer but I'll wait for a turn around, unfortunately I don't have the bankroll to weather the storm. I would like to make one comment however, for years my friends and I have talked about betting the opposite of what we like, surely at the end of the year we'll be winners. Honestly had I taken that advice over the last 10 yrs of pro sports betting, I can't even imagine how much I'd be up. As for your advice, do you ever think you're out smarting yourself, you talk about value here and value there, maybe sometimes it has to cost you some juice to catch a winner, sometimes the most obvious pick is the right pick. Rather than looking at other games that may have value (and potentially a winner) maybe the right play is to just pick the winner. I've never gone throughout the entire line up, I pretty much look at your plays and follow those only. I'm curious how many "sure things" I use the term loosely, but regardless, how many of them have come in? Just a thought that sometimes when your strategy isn't working, maybe going against all logic or going with logic depending how you look at it, is the right answer. Don't give it too much thought, just pick the team that should win. Just my two cents, enjoy the season looking forward to jumping back on real soon!
J
Thanks J. There are really no real answers to snapping out of a funk. I do understand your position and may consider it because over-analyzing games can sometimes drive one crazy. I appreciate the suggestion and support.
Sep 13, 2015 10:18:21
I know Point Spread with the OLG is a suckers game in most cases, but how about the value of the inflated lines? For example, I was looking at taking STL +5 and WAS +4.5, any thoughts?
Chris
Chris: Sorry I didn't get back to you yesterday. For my take on the OLG "edges" and just playing it in general, here is an article I wrote last year: http://www.sportswagers.ca/blog/article.php?bID=23
Sep 12, 2015 18:48:07
NCAA and NFL are back!!! Cant wait for a lovely season of write-ups and insight on football. Tough year on baseball, but baseball is the toughest thing to predict with the 162 game schedule. I look forward to riding the Sherwood train to prosperity, and in my eyes, she started today with a beauty pick and writeup on Virginia. Fantastic call, and great reasoning behind the pick. Ditch the crap shoot that is the MLB regular season, and Dial into the money maker in Football. Thanks again Buddy!
Name
Sep 12, 2015 17:17:50
Hey Brian, Just want to say thanks again for all the picks and write-ups. It really has been my pleasure not only for the extra knowledge but for the extra units as well. Here's hoping to a great NFL season... Cheers, David
David O
Sep 12, 2015 10:29:28
It's been a rough go since mid May or so but it happens. I remember right before you hit this funk, you won 15 or so straight in a row in late April or early May. Sports betting is no different than the stock market. There will be months of losses and treading water. There will also be months of gains. You just need to adjust your bets accordingly. Keep up the good work Brian, your free picks are very appreciated. To all you bandwagon naysayers, when you criticize Brian, please post your picks for the current day as well, and let's keep a record of your picks. Also, please post your picks BEFORE game time. Posting during the game or after is no different than saying you meant to bet on Red and not Black during a roulette game. Cheers.
Chris
Thanks Chris. I have to thank you and all the rest of the readers of this forum for writing in with encouraging words during what I have to believe is the worst run I've had in 15 years. It really means a lot to me that you all took time to write in with support. THANKS A MILLION!! That said, I'm still very positive and confident. I try harder and dig down deeper every day in an order to snap out of this funk. On to today! Thanks again guys.
Sep 10, 2015 21:48:17
Anyone who has been following your picks over the years knows that better days are ahead. Having said that, you have made a curious selection for Week 1 for survivor poolies. Trusting a team who could only muster 2 wins last season to deliver a win when you have little or no margin for error seems out of character for you. Best of luck. Looking forward to your post-season baseball selections.
Joel
Joel: No matter who you take this week, it's a gamble. It's a tough week to pikc straight up winners. I would never post something that I do not play myself. I am in three Survivor Pool and have played the Bucs in two of them. Like I said, Tampa to me is a very underrated group that could have a very good year. The 2-14 record from a year ago means nothing. In football, the margin for error is thin for most teams and besides, I see the Titans as a complete disaster. If I'm willing to wager on TB at -3, I'm absolutely willing to play em as pick em in my Survivor Pool. Best of luck this weekend friend and thanks for writing in!
Sep 10, 2015 13:59:11
I also liked Pats' story and like playing the ponies as well. I keep records of my bets and only bet what I can afford to. At least this site does the same thing year in and year out. As for the jackasses and idiots that diss on a losing selection my attitude is this. Start up your own handicapping site posting your FREE picks and do better.
Brian Hayward
Sep 9, 2015 19:02:45
Keep up the good work. Always enjoy your analysis. Streaks happen good and bad. I've learned over the years when you're going bad scale back. When it turns (which it will) you will not have ruined your bankroll and you will be in position to take advantage of the turn of circumstances. the other guy makes the error, balks in a run etc..Money management is very important during the lean times.
Greg
Sep 9, 2015 13:57:29
Great story Pat. I think any seasoned player has a similar story, and for those who do not it is because they burned through their bankroll chasing during the losing streak. Sherwood, thank you for each day breaking down literally the entire sports menu while looking for valuable winners. Unfortunately, finding winners is not always easy or the end result. It is inevitable that a sports investor/gambler will have a ten game losing streak at some point; it is a reality. It amazes me that people come here seeking your professional opinion for free and then complain when games lose. Here is thought for those individuals, cap the games yourself, do not blindly follow anyone, and stop betting more money than you can afford to lose. I have never seen Sherwood go to anyone and place a gun to their head forcing them to play his picks. So to those who are too lazy, or economically challenged, and or simply not mature or educated enough, please move on and find someone who gives 100% winners so you will be happy. This site will survive without you and your negative comments.
Scully
Thanks so much for a great response Scully. Us "seasoned players" understand the peaks and valleys a lifetime of gambling will inevitably go through and I could not have said it better than you. Thanks again.
Sep 9, 2015 12:53:07
Sherwood, it strikes me as funny that losing streaks bring out the worst in people and blame you for picks they couldn't have pulled out of their ass if they had to. I've been a player for more than 25 years now and particularly play the ponies. I once went on 60 day losing streak....nosed out, DQ from win position, bad jockey ride etc. However, I stuck to my guns and continued handicapping the the way I always did...eventually snapped out and went on one of my longest winning streak ending the year positive as you said. There's a reason they call it gambling....and if you cannot stand the heat and live through losses then shut the fuck up....
Pat
Thanks Pat. Well said. I totally understand that money brings the best and worst out in people. Just go to a casino and observe at the tables and you'll see examples of it every day. I appreciate the encouraging words Pat and the time you took to write...Thanks much.
Sep 9, 2015 10:57:10
Perfect MLB day. Good to see you're hitting on all cylinders heading into NFL.
Jamal
There is an old cliche that says, If you can't stand the heat, keep out of the kitchen". The messages have been coming fast and furious over the past few days telling me what a loser I am among other things. To those people I say, "I can take the heat". There is no question that I'm in the midst of a horrible run for which I have no apologies for. I work hard, I bet every game myself and I'm not going to allow an inevitable bad run alter my philosophies. Not when they have been proven over 14 years on this site and in 30 years of wagering myself. So bring it on. Like I said, I can take it. Cliches have been around for a very long time and that's because they're true. There's another one that says, Misery loves company" and in that regard, you morons that get satisfaction in others losing money are living a life of misery and get joy in others losing. That's pathetic. Let me end this by saying I have 9000 readers a day and for every one idiot that sends hate messages, there are 1500 good people that have the same goal as me. To those I say, "Thanks for the support over the years". I'm more frustrated than anyone but it does not change my mood, my confidence or my approach. We'll snap out if it, like we always do, we'll go on a huge run, like we always do, end up positive at the end of the year, like we always do and then I'll never hear from this group of haters again, just like always. Peace out.
Sep 9, 2015 01:39:02
I begin to think you're working for the books...your MLB picks are so bad...your reasonings are spot on but you are not getting the results...
Vinnie
Sep 9, 2015 01:13:53
the Va Tech game was not graded. I hope you get out of this slump just in time for NFL season . You went from + 45 units to + 12 but you are still on the plus side.Your record is way below .500 so some of your readers will need all the help you can give them.if anyone can pull out of this it is you. All the best pulling for you
Frank
Thanks very much Frank for the support. I really do appreciate the vote of confidence.
Sep 9, 2015 00:59:08
Is any one else loving this beating that Sherwood is taking??? He sits here and bashes people's comments and then blames "luck" for his picks. Still up on the year though. Maybe try a tout service at least they would be right 50 percent of the time if you were to call twice and they gave you opposite picks. Keep up the good work!!!
Better then morning comics
Sep 5, 2015 10:10:25
Outstanding start to the College Football season! Can't wait to see what you are going to serve up today. Surprised we aren't continuing the Weaver fade today. The Rangers certainly have a lineup that can take advantage of his struggles.
Joel
Thanks Joel. As for Weaver, I really just didn't like the way the Angels have manhandled the Rangers all year. Had the price been a little better on Holland and Texas, I may have bitten.
Sep 4, 2015 16:28:41
Might add Re MSU/WMU the Spartans also have Oregon up next week. Big 2nd half meltdown for MSU last year in that game.
Mike
Sep 3, 2015 13:04:19
Thanks for the post. I like Minn to cover in CFB tonight as well. I also like UNC to cover against SC - will be a shootout but I like their QB. best of luck on the upcoming season and great job with the write ups!
Nick
Thanks Nick and best of luck with your games too.
Sep 2, 2015 15:40:59
College Football is just around the corner. Like any games on Thursday? Thanks!
Nick
Yes Nick, I do like a bunch of games this weekend and I'll be posting them tomorrow (Thursday)
Sep 2, 2015 00:49:51
Minn Over 3.5 runs where is the loss Sherwood!! Cheat!!
Confused
Seriously Dude? Check the results. You'll see a 4+ unit loss on that game. I've been running this site for 12 years or so and have never skewed any numbers before and you think I would now over 2 units? Give your head a shake and crawl back under the rock from which you came out from.
Aug 30, 2015 16:23:42
What happened to min team total over. Don't cheat now
Confused
Aug 28, 2015 07:45:14
Hey Sherwood, a while back a fellow by the name of Frank challenged you to a head-to-head contest in the NFL this year for cash. You accepted and said you would keep us posted as to the progress. Just wondering what ever happened with that? BTW, I read your stuff every day. win or lose, you are extremely accurate in your analysis and I enjoy the insight and quality of your writeups.
Eric
That's exactly right Eric. I accepted the challenge for a $3000 wager (he said name the price) and I never heard back from him again. That was well over a month ago, maybe two.
Aug 28, 2015 07:39:40
Just sending my thanks...Analysis of the Montreal-Hamilton tilt was very impressive; So much so that I passed on the handicap and took Montreal to win outright. Thus I have you to thank for my largest win in 9 years...Talk about completely nailing it. It\'s like you wrote it up after the match. Congrats to both of us and keep up the great work.
Paul
You're welcome Paul and I really do appreciate the time you took to write.
Aug 22, 2015 18:31:33
Jace......you should have said something yesterday.....adding a comment like this today, is completely meaningless......
Jeff
Exactly.
Aug 22, 2015 00:12:07
Perhaps predicting that the ticats aren't going to keep putting up video game numbers isn't a wise way to go.
Jace
Perhaps predicting or commenting on picks after the game is final isn't the way to go. The most amazing thing is that NOBODY has ever been wrong after the game was final. NOTE: This message came in about three hours after that game was final.
Aug 19, 2015 18:34:16
Funny how you guys handicapped the Mets' Syndegaard tonight. What you said about him certainly is correct, but one ALARMING stat that worries me to do about him, is that Syndegaard is 0-5 with a 5+ ERA on the road. The Mets are 1-7 in his 8 road starts. You guys know, a lot is situational. I come to your site everyday. I like the site and hope it continues. I like to read WHY someone likes a team, and the method of analyzing the matchup. Keep up the good work.
Brian
The thing I like about Syndergaard tonight was his complete dominance against righties and that's where most of Baltimore's threats come from. Another reason we took the Mets is because Jimenez is overvalued. Your point is a valid one however, Brian. Thanks for taking the time to write and for the kind words too. BTW, this site will continue as long as I'm healthy and of sound mind, which might be another 30 years....I hope.
Aug 18, 2015 22:05:22
Keep up the good work. Do you think you'll have any NFL season win bets?
Michael
Thank you Michael. Will definitely have one or two season win totals posted 7-10 days before the openers.
Aug 18, 2015 05:57:17
Love your daily picks and write-ups. I've learned a tremendous amount reading your write-ups. Although I don't always agree, I can't thank you enough for allowing me to "see your logic/thought process".
Pat
Thanks very much Pat for the kind words and support.
Aug 15, 2015 14:52:30
Your analysis of the Jays is pretty spot on. Their offense is uneven, sporadic and will start costing them a lot of games when their pitching becomes less effective. I see Tulowitzki having good at bats, but producing almost nothing. The team is fantastic but they're not playing amazing baseball and will still lose 1/3 of their games even when they are playing their best ball. I'll definitely be watching for inflated lines against them in the next few weeks.
Magus
I think you're being a little generous Magus by suggesting they'll lose 1/3 of their games since the best teams play about .600 ball. Jays offense enjoyed a very charmed life for an extended period of time. I think Gibby needs to balance his top heavy offense a little more by batting Revere 1st, Tulo, 2nd 3rd or 4th. Donaldson 3rd or 4th and Colabello 7th instead of cleanup.
Aug 14, 2015 14:31:30
Sherwood, I know you hate road dogs, but the Argos at plus 6, come on, Bombers have no qb, and in this league that spells doom, GO ARGOS. Also love Calgary to hammer Ottawa on Saturday
TOM
Argos are -6 Tom, not +6. If they were +6 I would have taken them for sure. P.S. I don't hate road dogs, I dislike road favorites because they have a low win %.
Aug 9, 2015 02:05:30
Just a note about Jed Tedford, he had several years in the cfl as a player and coach before he went to the ncaa, hence Wally Buono turned to an old friend with cfl kmowledge
TOM
Aug 6, 2015 23:26:09
Jeff Tedford will suffer the same fate as Dan Hawkins. These experienced former NCAA coaches are too set in their ways to adapt to the Canadian game. The first half turned on the decision to receive a kickoff instead of accept a drive start at the 35 yard line following an Eskies FG. It looks like we'll have to wait at least another week to cash against overrated Edmonton.
Chris G.
Note: this was sent at half-time in Thursday's B.C./Edmonton game......I agree with you Chris about Tedford. Furthermore, Lulay looks BRUTAL. However, the game is still four quarters long so let's see what happens.
Aug 6, 2015 19:32:45
You love the contrary baseball picks! I think the jays and yanks are gonna win BiG 2 nite (it's I-0 jays already to be fair) but u got the twins and bosox winning!...I would wish u luck but it would cost me $$$$$$$$!
Scott
Aug 5, 2015 09:04:25
Do you think today might be the day the roof collapses on Taylor Jungmann? You weren't very high on his potential in your call-up section (with good reason), but he has held his own through several starts. Today he is matched up against hard-luck Ian Kennedy, who I agree is better than his statistics indicate. I'm thinking Padres and Padres -1.5 could be in play. Thoughts?
Joel
I agree Joel. Perhaps not that roof collapses on Jungmann but that Ian Kennedy is undervalued and that the Padres beat Jungmann and the Brewers today. That game will be one of our featured picks today.
Aug 4, 2015 13:30:23
I noticed you are not sold on the Pirates' hitting. Which team do you think is the strongest of the MLB wild card contenders and which favorites do you feel are overvalued?
Chris
I'm not sure which is the strongest but I assure you that nobody wants to run into the Blue Jays around playoff time. I also think that the White Sox can pose a serious threat with a rotation that includes Sale, Quintana, Samardzija and Rodon. The Twins are a complete fraud and I don't like the Orioles, Tigers or Rangers to hang around to the end of Sept either. As for overvalued favs, pencil in Pitt, Washington and the Halos. It's a wide open race that should provide us with some outstanding value down the stretch.
Aug 4, 2015 13:02:19
Hi Brian, I have a question regarding bankroll management. I know you had a tough run the last few months, my bankroll went down about halfway so I lowered my units. It happens, I understand, my question is, say a tough streak happens, should I work my way up to my original bankroll betting less or refill and bet what I used to? Thanks and keep up the great work!
Chris
Chris, My general rule is that you risk a % of your bankroll no matter what. For instance, if you are risking 2% of your bankroll every day, your bets will naturally decrease when you're losing and increase when you are winning. Just stick with a certain percentage (I recommend 2 or 2½ of your bankroll on every wager) and your bankroll will dictate the amount of the wager. It works well because your bets decrease during bad runs and increase during good runs.
Aug 4, 2015 12:22:50
Get job last night. Good thing I took your advice. Thanks very much, truly appreciated....
David O
You're welcome David. I only hope it continues or that there is more consistency than that past couple of months. BEST OF LUCK!
Aug 4, 2015 09:21:30
Nice 3-0 night for you last night. You nailed both MLB games and the CFL game as well. Keep up the good work.
Tim
Thanks Tim. Obviously I'm satisfied with a good night, as 3-0 was the goal but I'm far from satisfied with this year's baseball season or the past couple of months. Those 2-0, 3-0, or 3-1 nights have been far too infrequent recently and I'll be striving for more consistency moving forward. Thanks for taking the time to write Tim and for the support.
Aug 3, 2015 13:03:25
Oh boy, not going against the Argos again are we? They'll be up for this one and are playing too well and with too much swagger to be spotting anything more than an FG against. I'll wait until they are at home and take back some points against them. Good luck today.
Chris G.
Thanks Chris.
Aug 2, 2015 21:46:28
Reading comments every few days on this site is always interesting, and I just realized why of late we are seeing so many negative comments. People like myself recommend your site. Word of mouth is overwhelming and your site is becoming more and more popular. I know for a fact one bookmaker who anxiously awaits your super bowl pick every year. With more traffic comes more losers, so of course we get the whining, keep up the good work, thank you. Did we get screwed or what on the Stamps game! unreal, oh well
TOM
Thanks Tom. I appreciate the comments.
Aug 2, 2015 19:36:36
Averting a sweep must not have been that important to the Angels. Terrible move putting in a rookie with a 7.20 ERA to face the heart of the Dodgers order in the bottom of the 10th. Sometimes I really question the competence of these long-tenured managers like Scioscia.
Joel
I question the competence as well Joel. Very frustrating game and your points are completely valid.
Aug 2, 2015 12:44:28
Good point on the Royal's bats, but I'm just not sold on Dickey. I post my predictions before game time because I believe you lose all credibility when you predict as soon as the game starts, in the middle, or at the end. There could be a devastating injury during the first pitch, who knows. As for those guys, as the Oasis song goes " Put yer money where your mouth is, yer mama sez that you was real."
John
Amen John
Aug 2, 2015 11:51:52
Took the Royals +134 on the Money Line against the Jays. Dickey on 3 days rest with the roof open makes me think the value is with the Royals this afternoon.
John
I don't think 3 days rest will effect Dickey as much as others but that's not to say he'll have a good game. He's always a risk and you may just have a winner there John. I look closely at all games and I just don't like the way the Royals are swinging the bats over the past 2 weeks and that's the main reason I laid off that value. Jays at home are tough and the only reason they lost yesterday was because of an error by Buehrle, a play he makes 1999 times out of 2000. I wish you luck in the game John and I especially appreciate you sending this in before game time. I cannot even begin to tell you how many emails I get from clowns after the game is over telling me how I missed a pick....Here's an example of one after the Edmonton/SASK CFL game. This email came at about 1:30 AM, long after the game was over: "Edmonton has a great defense and Sask had a rookie QB going. Easy winner Sherwood but once again you missed it". Makes me laugh every time.
Aug 2, 2015 07:49:18
Well... an ending like that in the Stamps game makes me sick. When does the NFL start. What a joke the CFL is. I'm looking forward to your analysis of real football in the coming months. Keep up the good work man.
Cam
I hate to tell you this Cam but the NFL is just as bad in terms of weird stuff, bad calls by the refs and bizarre endings. My position is that football on all levels has been ruined by the various league's constant need to change the rules in an attempt to increase scoring. Scoring sells and now the refs call everything and the game has become a farce. When we see a great play in football, we don't cheer, we hold our breath for a few seconds in anticipation of those inevitable flags EVERY SINGLE TIME. In my opinion, football has become un-watchable. It's OK to watch on a Sunday afternoon with 8 games going at once but independently on Thursday, Sunday night or Monday night, NFL football is un-watchable from an entertainment standpoint. The NFL brand on the field is brutal, not because the players are bad but because the league has ruined the game. The only reason people watch it is because they wager on it and because fantasy football has become fucking HUGE. The NFL deserves an award for the way they market their product but the game itself is un-watchable and by far the least entertaining of all the major sports. It blows my mind that in October, TV ratings for am NFL Thursday night game between Jacksonville and Indianapolis will draw a higher rating than a major-league baseball playoff game. That's how good the NFL markets its product. In terms of entertainment, comparing football on TV to the NHL, MLB or NBA is like comparing Roseanne Barr to Jessica Alba.
Aug 1, 2015 16:26:11
Love your Stampeder pick today, I'm with you, go Stamps
TOM
I'm just playing the value Tom and hopefully it'll work out. Glad we're on the same side so BEST of LUCK. Go Stamps.
Jul 29, 2015 14:30:40
Hey Sherwood, i wanted to say thank you for all your hard work everyday with your countless insight and write ups on all your picks . In my book you are the man !! Where else will you get free picks everyday (MLB, NFL, CFL, you name it) with a detailed write up, keep up the good work my friend...
Dogface
Thanks Dog. You really hit the nail on the head when you said, "Where else do you get free picks with detailed writeups". That's what I don't understand about folks who complain. I could understand if I was charging 100's of dollars like tout services and not delivering but I ask for nothing in return, not even a sign up. Oh well, let em complain if that makes them sleep better at night. Anyway Dog, you're very welcome and I appreciate the kind words and support.
Jul 29, 2015 12:14:55
I have been gambling a long time.I appreciate anyone who teaches me something or who can expand my thinking. Thank-you.
Kevin
What a cool message Kevin, thank you for writing. I'm exactly the same way and really appreciate those I can learn anything from, not just in gambling but in any capacity. You are a wise man.
Jul 28, 2015 17:47:08
Hey Brian, What's your opinion on the Jays this year and going forward with the rest of the season. I know you're fond of Sanchez, Stroman, Norris, and even Hutch's potential in the next few years. As for this year, do the numbers say the pitching staff is in for a turnaround or are just a lost cause? You know how depressing sports can be in this town, hopefully some good luck is awaiting during the dog days of summer.
Shane
Jays starting staff isn't likely to hold up Shane but the good news is that they have a great offense and a great chance to win the AL East. Jays are also just 3 games back of Minnesota for the final Wild Card spot. Should they get into the playoffs anything can happen in a short series. Jays definitely got better with Tulowitzki and perhaps now they can trade a guy like Encarnicion or even Bautista for a legit starter. With Tulowitzki, it opens up more possibilities because a lot of teams are looking for offense, like the Mets for instance, who have an abundance of quality starters. Jays chances of getting into the playoffs are as good as any team in the East chasing a Wild Card spot, which should make for an exciting August and September. Jays are definitely a factor.
Jul 28, 2015 09:51:39
I haven't been wagering as long as you, but have been for a long time. I rarely take teams in hockey or baseball to win by 1.5 goals/runs. One rule I always adhered to was to never lay the run and a half with a home baseball side. This year, you seem to be playing these home sides often. Personally, I just hate the thought of the home team loading the bases in the bottom of the 9th in a tie game and a ball getting hit that would normally produce multiple runs, but only one of those runs would count. Was my logic flawed?
Joel
Joel: Your logic is not flawed one bit. It's not a bad rule you adhere to at all. Spotting 1½-runs with home teams in baseball brings extra risk for sure but that extra risk is figured into the line. That's the only reason I play them. The risk is higher but the reward is greater. With that, If I see value in that extra risk, I'll play it. That doesn't mean it's right or wrong, it's just one of the risks I'm willing to take from time to time.
Jul 27, 2015 18:04:43
It amazes me also that idiots write in to say ridiculous and negative things at all! You should be commended every day for your tireless, interesting and accurate picks and analysis..... and I can't express how much I appreciate seeing them every day....low self esteem idiots that jump on every loss don't realize that sometimes the best pick doesn't win! Keep up the great work, I read every day...
Jeff
Thanks a million Jeff. There is nothing else I can say other then thanks for taking the time to write. It means a lot.
Jul 25, 2015 08:50:45
Arrrrrrrgosssssssss! All kidding aside, talk about a team that refuses to lose. I think that is one variable that analytics and advanced stats cannot account for. When a team has great chemistry and believes in themselves, they can accomplish anything despite whatever shortcoming they might have in terms of personnel or X's and O's. Right now, the double blue are feeling it. Proceed with caution.
Chris G.
Agreed Chris. They are playing tough football indeed, mentally and physcially
Jul 25, 2015 06:11:24
Can this epic CFL run continue? Keep the fade material coming!
Jace
It amazes me how many folks like yourself cannot wait to kick a guy when things aren't going well. Why not just fade and say nothing?
Jul 25, 2015 00:03:39
Suggestion, could u post your cfl picks in the same manner as nfl picks? Those of us in the west cannot always access them on time
TOM
Tom, unfortunately that would not be possible because a a lot of my choices depend heavily on the line movement. I will be changing my format for NFL picks too this year, posting unofficial plays on Friday but updated them on Sunday to official plays if warranted. Line movement is a key criteria for my selections.
Jul 23, 2015 11:16:46
Sherwood: What makes you so refreshing is your fearless approach to attacking pitchers or teams that most people would not dare take on. You attacked Barry Zito long before anyone else and the same can be said for Jered Weaver and now James Shields. You have constantly recognized a pitcher in trouble way before anyone else that I have ever read caught them or long before their value goes down. I couldn't give a damn about what other's think. The valuable info you provide for free every day is greatly appreciated by myself and I'm sure many others. You have conviction and confidence in what you do and anyone that comes on here and bashes you is a sorry excuse for a human being. Like you say, you ask for nothing in return and it amazes me how many people "root" for others to lose. Although I don't always agree with you, the write-ups are entertaining, well researched and worth the read for anyone with any brains whatsoever. By the Sherwood, you have saved me many bets that I would have made but did not because of your research and sharing them. Much respect sir.
Vic
Vic. You made my day. Thanks for taking the time to write.
Jul 22, 2015 19:55:59
I see from time to time that Sportswagers recommends to bet a baseball team -1. Where does one find that option on 365 Bet. They seem to offer money line or the minus or plus 1.5.
Bob
Bob: In all our -1 bets we include a link in our write-ups that simulate -1 for those that don't have a sportsbook that offers it up. Bet365, Sportsinteraction and Betfair all do not offer up this type of bet. However, you can simulate it by using this formula from the following website: http://zcodesystem.com/runline_calc/
Jul 19, 2015 12:52:13
All valid points. Thank for your write ups. Im taking the over.
Joey in Bmore
Jul 19, 2015 12:30:46
Hey Sherwood, would like to know if you spend much if any time looking at a pitchers past history against certian teams. I know Felix is a better pitcher than CC but Felix stinks againts the current Yankees and CC has dominated current Mariners. Don't see the value in betting the run line with a weak hitting Seatle team on the road against a pitcher they have had no success against. And all you preach is value.
Joey in Bmore
I do look at that Joey and at times I put weight on it. That said, I do preach value and very rarely are you going to get a price like this on Felix against a stiff like C.C. Those batters stats against specific pitchers can be misleading because C.C. had success years ago against everyone and the result is skewed numbers. You look at guys like J.J. Hardy, Ron Howard, Shane Victorino and many others and they have outstanding numbers against many pitchers but it's misleading because they had success for many years. C.C's numbers against current M's or anyone else is also misleading because of his great success for a decade. Over the past two years, Sabathia's skills have dramatically declined while Hernandez is as good as ever. The true value here is Hernandez a cheap price against CC.
Jul 19, 2015 11:23:35
you put down a tie for the tampa bay/blue jay game. I thought you won that game
TOM
It was a 5-inning bet. Game was tied 1-1 after 5
Jul 19, 2015 09:34:32
Hi Sherwood, Just wanted to thank you for your ongoing analysis and free picks. I can imagine it takes quite a lot of effort and time to write up several paragraphs every morning.
John
It really does John and I can't thank you enough for taking the time to send some kind words this morning when I've been going bad for a couple of months. It means a lot and reflects your kind nature and spirit. All the best John.
Jul 18, 2015 22:22:49
Finally someone puts his money where his mouth is. And Frankieboy don't just spew picks. Do actual research eh? And how about you post ONE game of ANY sport that you research. If you want, I challenge you or any of the other idiots to an NHL or NCAAF season series. 3 picks a week. Any amount min 1k.
Pete
Well, he hasn't actually put his money where his mouth is yet. If he does, I'll let everyone know.
Jul 18, 2015 21:39:23
Sherwood enough is enough you dog me for making a comment and my words speak for themselves. Take away your one good month and your picks have been garbage. Setting out a challenge for the upcoming NFL season four picks a week two units a pick. You set the prize. This is taking candy from a baby. (Hence your reaction to my original comment)
frank
That's a challenge I welcome Frank. I will set the prize at $3000 minimum, $5000 max. Your choice. That said, I will not get involved unless the money is put front up by both parties. We can get an agreed mediator to hold it and pay the winner. The mediator will also have to be sent the picks and post them at game time. That way, we can't see one another's picks until game time. The ball is in your court. If you are in agreement, you can email me directly and we can set it up.
Jul 15, 2015 23:22:44
Living in Calgary its easy to get caught up in Stamps hysteria being cup champs and all, but the truth is this team is in trouble with a offensive line in ruins. Stanley Bryant went to Winnipeg, Brett Jones went to the NFL, and now their two starting tackles both are gone long term I see they are 9 to 10 point favourites this Saturday after playing a tough game on Monday. I know where my money is going and it is not on the home side
TOM
Thanks Tom. Always good to hear from people locally because they usually have a good read going on. Thanks for taking the time to share this info and your thoughts. Best of luck.
Jul 15, 2015 14:20:14
Damn,dude, people been given you some serious beats! Thanks for putting them up on your site as it makes for very funny reading! And you are UP for the year, can you imagine if you were DOWN! Been making consistent bread on tennis and yes I know that only degenerates bet on tennis! At least I'm not going to bet on the ESPY awards! Pick On!
Scott
The funny thing is that it's actually true (that I'm up on the year). Tennis is extremely popular in Europe to bet on. Just look at Betfair's tennis markets. The liquid on events is crazy. Anyway, thanks for taking the time to write Scott and keep on making that tennis money!
Jul 15, 2015 12:51:44
Sherwood all your followers must join draft kings to qualify for the football pool this year? Doesn't seem like your style. A little disappointment for your loyal followers, as I'm not into risky business.
steve
No Steve, you don't have to join Draft Kings to qualify. It'll be the same rules as every year with no obligations whatsoever. Sorry if I articulated it in a way to make you think that.
Jul 14, 2015 12:38:01
Its unfortunate that people like Frankie la douche feel like they need to rip on a website when they lose a bunch of money because they probably hammered one or two of your picks that didnt hit. Someone that feels it necessary to rip all of your picks after a couple missed picks obviously has quite the gambing issue and is venting for no reason other than that. Truly pathetic. But thanks for posting this on your site so we can see how dumb and teary eyed some of your angry 'followers' can be. Thanks for all of your free analysis and picks Sherwood, remember that one donkey's opinions does not reflect on the rest of us.
Dingle
Thank you for that Dingle. Honestly, it bothers me not. There's an old cliche that says, "If you can't stand the heat, get out of the kitchen". Money brings out the best and worst in people. I could actually understand the bitterness some feel if I charged for picks or made claims that I couldn't back up but I do neither. The good or appreciative people outweigh the bitter by a WIDE margin.
Jul 11, 2015 06:01:19
This is better then the morning paper comics section. Looking at your results each day makes me laugh. You do have loyal backers though. Seems to me that Curious is onto something so wondering why all the harsh remarks from you and your friends when since his post you've been downhill. (Could say the same prior to his post). Love your Randall the Handle comment as well. I wouldn't even name him as a handicapper. His sun predictions over the years makes me laugh as well. Just because you have a radio show, newspaper, or website doesn't make you a so called "expert". You're just a guy making predictions like the rest of the world trying to make a buck. Stick to pizza this week sherwood and leave the BBQ steaks to the winners.
Frank
Enjoy the laughs while they last Frank. Been through this 100's of times from people like yourself over the years. Literally hundreds and hundreds of times. Then I go on an eight-month run and never hear from you folks again, EVER.
Jul 10, 2015 16:49:41
C is a joke, if he would have taken the time to read that the game was accidentally deleted from the data base he would have known what happened. Like usual he would rather post stupid things than take the time to figure out what really happened .
Tim
Jul 10, 2015 11:48:55
HAHA. You just erased the loss on the Padres last night from your website? What a joke.
C
First off, it wasn't the Padres, it was the Angels. Now take a second and read above the write-ups on the home page for an explanation. I don't and never have skewed my results.
Jul 9, 2015 00:27:51
Looking at the Yanks and Oakland today, the over looks good, I checked the weather, 28 but feels like 29 so the humidity is ok, but I'm concerned about a few things. Managers tend to rest regulars in day games after playing the night before and daytime baseball seems to be a big advantage to pitchers. I know you are not big on playing totals, but would like your input Thks
TOM
I would lean to over too in that game but believe that there is more value on playing a side than a total. That's just me though Tom. It is true that I'm not a totals player but that doesn't mean you can't find value in them. My thoughts are that with the ALL-Star break beginning on Monday, managers will not be resting players because they'll all get plenty of rest during the 3-day break. That said, you can check this site for all lineups every day. The lineups are always posted at least an hour before game time and sometimes more. You'll never have to worry about who's in and who's not so best of luck. Here is the website: http://www.fantasyalarm.com/lineups/mlb/
Jul 6, 2015 21:23:08
Hey Brian, I have been playing online poker exclusively for many years and have had great success doing so. This is important because you taught me through your picks something very important in poker that also applies a lot in sports betting: variance. I was betting games and loved the chalk until I stumbled on the show Randall had on old team1200 in Ottawa. You taught me that making the right bet 45% of the time for value is much better than playing chalk and winning 57-60% of the time at best. I was amazed at your sub .500 record and was wondering wtf you were doing to be honest. But I read every breakdown of every game you posted and said WOW guy knows his stuff. You bet on every sport and you always seem to find an angle that's different from other people and for that I salute you friend. For you 300 picks is barely 3 months just as my stats for 25000 hands can be skewed. In the end though we are ahead and that's all that matters. Keep it up man. And you almost made me wager on ponies almost...
Pete
Pete: Thanks for a great message. This has to be one of my favorite messages since I've started this site. Your last sentence about the ponies made me laugh. Thanks again for taking the time to write and continued success in everything you do. We need an abundance of patience, discipline and good money management skills and it sounds like you have those three key elements down pat. Stay in touch.
Jul 5, 2015 23:14:21
I am really appalled by the comment from this so call Curious or EM. The fact of the matter is this website has helped thousands of us and we have learned a great deal from his site. It takes a great effort and time to come up with such well thought write ups and breakdowns on a daily basis, for which this I commend Sherwood for. I thought I would also share some tout handicapper experience I encountered recently . I signed up for 30 days premium picks at $147 U.S. from www.oddsworthbetting.com (a guy by the name of James Jones and his buddy. Would you believe these guys were being sponsored by a well-respected Kenny White of the Donbest.com syndicate. After a miserable 30-35 record, I decided to switch handicapper, then I stumble upon another company that promises to double or triple your ROI in 5 days, his name is Chris Sharp of www.BookieCrusher.com. for a whopping $187 US for 30 days. So far their record is another disappointing 30-39 record. Needless to say I did not know that these two are the same crooks but using different names. I tracked both their picks for the next 10 days and what do you know, they do makes pick on both sides of the same game !!! One side to the oddsworthbetting and the other on bookiecrusher. I was irate so I decided to send them an e mail, of which they did not reply of course . So Sherwood keep up the good work …
dOGFACE
Unfortunately sir, these "tout" services stories are far too common. I wish you would have read my section on "Tout Services. Never pay for one, ever, dated on - Oct 1, 2011. I actually have a few articles on tout services and you can read them all here: http://www.sportswagers.ca/betting-advice/ or in my "Betting Advice" section located at the top of the page. Sorry you went through this but consider it a cheap lesson and never pay for picks again. Also, thanks for writing and sharing this.
Jul 5, 2015 20:11:41
I am going to defend Brian to the end of this one, he is one of the most thorough and sophisticated handicappers you will ever come across. His methodologies are innovative and cutting-edge, for sure if he didn't instruct so many players in his webinars, so many would have not enjoyed the success they have had. The man is brilliant and I am not the only one I know that feels that way.
Keith
Thanks a million for that Keith. I really appreciate the kind words.
Jul 5, 2015 11:56:01
With you all the way on Argos, love them being a dog against a old fading Rider team, great pick and good value. I see you have yet another whiner writing to complain. Why do these people bother? I don't like Judge Judy so I choose to not watch her. I don't write her and tell her my reasons for not liking her because I am sure she does not care. People who gamble and lose find excuses to place blame elsewhere. So it goes....
TOM
Thank you for that Tom. Great Judge Judy Judy analogy too! Man, that was close, the Argos game that is, and lucky but I'll take it.
Jul 5, 2015 09:55:43
Trolls, trolls trolls. You are a gentleman for even bothering to respond. Make no mistake 99+% of your readership appreciates and MAKES MONEY from your website.
Ralph
Thank you Ralph, I appreciate that very much.
Jul 5, 2015 00:43:05
I wrote an email the other day speaking about your record over the last several months as well as your numerous sports books and how they pay you. You don't post a response to it but yet post praise for your Montreal pick. Lol great day today as well with one win.
curious
Ok, if you insist....see below.
Jul 4, 2015 00:10:59
Sherwood, great pick on ALS, wish I had done same, kudos. I love Argos vs Riders, will watch for your say
TOM
Thanks Tom. The value was there in the 17½ point-spread swing from Week 1 to Week 2 and so it made the choice an easy one for me.
Jul 3, 2015 09:13:00
Sherwood let's just lay the cards out on the table. I've been following you for several months now and your record has been sub par. Great start to the year but the last few over 300 picks with little to no profit. Also you play (or at least list) every sports book out there for the best odds. An average player has one (maybe two) sports books so once again the best odds every time adds to the so called success. Your write ups are good and people appreciate that, but all don't be fooled free site, that the sponsors pay for. Too much credit given.
EM
If you insist…..I usually don’t answer messages like yours because of how ridiculously ill-informed you are but first let me say that I’m not looking for your approval and couldn’t care less about it. You’ve been watching closely over the past “300 plays” or so and I’ve shown little to no profit. 300 plays, huh? If you’re looking for a get rich quick scheme, and obviously you are, you’re in the wrong place. So let’s “lay the cards” on the table, shall we? I’ve shown a profit in four of the last five MLB seasons (6 of 11 seasons overall), seven of the past nine CFL seasons, seven of 11 college football seasons including the last 7 years in a row, eight of the last 11 NFL seasons, eight of the last NHL seasons and finally six of 11 college hoops seasons. You couldn’t find a single “tout” service that people shell out thousands of dollars for that comes close to this site’s record over the past dozen or so years. There’s another difference too. This site is free, always has been and always will be. 1 month or 6 months or even a full year or season means absolutely jack you fool. Do you understand how luck plays a huge part in the outcome of these games every single day? Take yesterday for instance. I went 1-5. Cleveland lost 1-0. 1 base hit with runners in scoring position and the score is different. Same goes with St. Louis. The Mets rallied in the ninth with three runs and one more base hit and the game is tied. On Friday, Tampa blows a 3-0 lead in the eighth and a 5-3 lead in the 11th. Sometimes you miss a game on an error or a ball that lands fair or foul by a couple of inches. It goes in streaks and the same goes for football, basketball, hockey or any other sport you may wager on. Yesterday was not unique either. This stuff happens every day of every year in every sport. I look for value and play it and let the chips fall where they may. Over 12 years, you are going to go on good streaks and bad streaks. This year, I got off to a 12-1 start in MLB baseball and “LUCK” played a part, just like it does every single fucking day in every sport. Once you embrace that fact, you’ll understand that in the grand scheme of things, a month or year matters not. I’ll stick to playing value while you go ahead and look for someone to meet your expectations of getting rich quickly. The last part of your letter says, “Your write ups are good and people appreciate that, but don't be fooled by the free site that the sponsors pay for”. Once again you comment on something you know nothing about. That’s called ignorance. I bet sports for a living. I started this site out when the internet was still in its infancy stage and never expected anything. I started it because I did the research anyway and wanted to share it with those less informed and show people another way of looking at sports betting. It caught on and I’ve enjoyed doing it ever since. It connects me with people that I would have never otherwise had the opportunity to connect with. I have met hundreds of people from all over the world because of it. I have stayed in touch with plenty of them and it has enriched my life. Some I have never met but stay connected to on social media or email and I have enjoyed that correspondence as well. I have worked closely with Randall the Handle, Daniel Negreanu and a few other well-known names in the gambling industry. The income generated from my sponsors couldn’t support a baby. It covers my costs of running this site and not a lot more. I have a mortgage payment, two kids and all the expenses that the average person has so just getting out of bed everyday costs close to 2000 a month. I have betting sports professionally for the past 16 years after working for several gambling publications prior to leaving it all behind 16 years ago and doing this full time and you comment on a month of “watching closely”. I work hard and bet hard. I have the utmost confidence in what I do. I find value and over the past 16 years it has served me well by allowing me and my kids to lead a very decent life. Seriously dude, you really think I need your approval or care about your dummy comments about “watching closely for 300 plays or so. Give your head a shake.
Jul 1, 2015 11:37:33
Sherwood, I want to follow up with David O's comments from June 30th..You have shown me a different side/way to handicap games..You and your site are professional and trustworthy..Keep up the great work..Never was interested in wagering on the ponies but I do look forward to your webinar..I'm sure I can learn something..Again, thank you..Doug M.
Doug
Thanks very much Doug. I really appreciate the kind words.
Jun 30, 2015 11:26:18
You and I had a great day yesterday Brian. I thank you. I was handicapping your picks and the value was so sweet to the taste (I still believe KC was the right bet.) especially Sox game. I also sprinkled a little on Cleveland, so all in all, not a bad day. Thanks again. Your site really raises the bar in this line of work. Of course we all have our swings but this site has been nothing but honest, professional and profitable..... Thanks again, David O
David O
David: Thanks so much for taking the time to write. Your message made my day. Not many people realize how much work I put into this site and the hours I put in of research to write these games up so when I get a letter like yours, it really makes my day. Thanks again, great pick on CLEVELAND last night and continued success always. We're in this thing together.
Jun 25, 2015 15:46:02
Yes still following you daily . A big Thanks for all your effort . Looking forward to the CFL . w/ the new rules one might think of some high scoring games & O/U totals ? After about week # 3 & on ? Even bought my Argos tickets . Love the new ownership & BMO field in 2016. Your Silent Follower : Mr. W. Baxter .
Mr. W. Baxter
Thank you Mr. B. With the new rules in the CFL, I probably wouldn't wait until Week 3. If you think it'll produce more scoring, and we should see signs of it right away, I would bet over the total immediately BEFORE the oddsmmakers make major adjustments. If scoring is way up, as one might anticipate, by Week 3, the value on the totals will be gone or adjustments will have already been made. The window to take advantage would be now. I'll be watching closely tonight, just like you. I also love BMO Field for the CFL. It'll be a great atmosphere being back down on the CNE grounds. Best of luck.
Jun 22, 2015 23:04:37
Great stuff on the cfl futures, could not agree more
TOM
Thanks for saying so Tom. Let's get em!
Jun 22, 2015 12:34:24
Have you had any chance to post the horse webinar as promised .
Dogface
No, sorry but I will have it up really soon. I have recorded two sessions but they did not come out well. One came out with no sound. The other one had sound for 1st 15 minutes and then it cut off. Will try again tonight and tomorrow. Hang in there, it won't be much longer.
Jun 19, 2015 11:34:11
Hey Sherwood, Any chance you'll be doing another Horse webinar? Missed the last one. Briefly caught some of the NBA one in Feb. Work 4 to 12 shift. Great site. Have always looked forward to your NHL and NFL information. GOOD SHIT!!! Thanks David
DAVID
Thank you David. I'm working on a Horse Racing Webinar video that I'll post really soon that will give you everything you need to know. Watch the site for an update but I hope to have it posted sometime today (June 19). Best of luck.
Jun 18, 2015 13:05:27
I am doing really well with horse racing thanks again. I wonder if we can ever find UK race details as there is a lot more action and exchange bets happening there.
Michael
That's great to hear Michael. Keep it going. Here's s site that has U.K details with in-depth trainer stats. http://www.trackdata.com.au/RacingStatistics.asp You can definitely use it. Click on the European "Flatstats" with trainers in parenthesis.
Jun 17, 2015 12:00:45
Thanks for the webinar yesterday, tons of information to digest ,is there such a thing as Horse betting for dummies? I need to understand the terms and acronym
Dogface
You're welcome. I'm going to post a youTube video soon, very similar to the Webinar so that you'll be able to use it as a reference. Good luck man.
Jun 15, 2015 14:14:19
Sherwood-Your extensive research and analysis is impressive, but I feel compelled to comment on your regular references to "trap games". I assure you that bookmakers never do this. It's a myth. For example, today's Atlanta-Boston game is in the-170 range because sharp money poured in on Boston when the line opened in the -140's. That means the books actually need Atlanta money.
Rc
Thank you RC. Your comment is duly noted and while I don't agree with the "myth" about "traps" comment, I will most certainly keep an open mind about what you've said. My position on the Red Sox does remain the same, as it's a curious line whether it's -148 (opener) or -170 (current). I take what you said seriously and will definitely consult with some very respected "sharps" about future "traps" Thanks for taking the time to write and comment.
Jun 14, 2015 11:44:33
Sherwood am I reading this right? The jays and Redsox at 8.5 the over is too good to be true at Fenway w/ a home run pitcher of Estradas type. And w the jays Offence cooking like it is. Seems to me play of the day!!!
Steve
Looks pretty good Steve but sometimes those too good to be true lines are sucker bets. I hope it comes in for you. BEST OF LUCK MAN. Estrada is bound to blow up any time now.
Jun 13, 2015 14:33:56
I must admit I'm surprised you weren't on the blue jays today. They're up 3-0 at the moment, I didn't take them either but even still I thought for sure you guys would've taken them after last night. Either way just wanted to add my two cents about the Houston game, I think losing Altuve could be damaging to the Astros. The stats say Houston but I'd proceed with caution as Seattle could break out at any point. These struggles usually end with a rout of some sort, so I'm going with Seattle mainly because Altuve is out. Other picks I like, Texas -1.5, nationals, and Oakland. Keep up the good work guys.
Eric
R.A. Dickey is far too erratic to trust Eric. I understand that sometimes you just have to play the hot hand but I would want more than +115 on Dickey in Boston. I didn't see any value in taking him today. That jays bullpen worries me too, knowing that R.A. rarely gets past 6 innings. Best of luck
Jun 12, 2015 07:49:44
I didn't realize I needed Australia wallet to bet on the aussie horses
Michael
Michael: It's really nothing to transfer funds into your Australian wallet. Right beside your account balance there is an arrow to the right. Click on that and you'll see "main wallet" and Australian wallet. Click on transfer and a window will come up. Enter amount you want to transfer from your main wallet to Australian wallet and click enter. it literally takes 1 second and you are good to go. There is no exchange rate or anything like that. You are still wagering in Canadian money. Once you are done, you can transfer money back the same way from Australian wallet to Canadian wallet. It's easy as 1-2-3. Hope this helps. Best of luck.
Jun 11, 2015 13:57:06
Curious to see if you have any take on Cincinnati Reds today. Seems to be significant value, I know they struggle on the road, but the bats have woken up lately and after sweeping philly they may have some momentum heading out on this trip. The Cubs broke out yesterday but that was mostly due to terrible pitching by the Tigers (6 runs on 3 hits). Just wondering if there's any reason why you may not see the same value here, whether it be their road struggles or Lorenzen. Thanks.
Eric
Eric: Yeah, I looked close at that game and I would definitely have to agree with you on the Cinci value. Something held me off and I cannot recall what it was but I know I was damn close to writing it up. Wada was not sharp last time out so I would suggest you go with your first thought and play it. I actually like Lorenzen. Best of luck.
Jun 11, 2015 13:33:02
Love the LeBron comment. Wondering how you were so confident on golden state game 2 minus 7.5 and have shied away when they are minus 1 and now minus 2.5. Is this showing that you weren't playing value at minus 7.5 a six point drop is huge value and your not on it???
Steve
After Game 1 Steve, it looked to me like GS was ready to take control of the series and win going away. The line also suggested we play the fav, as a contrarian choice. However, that game revealed a lot about CLEVE. They want it more and they're playing like they need something while the Warriors want it less and they're playing like they already have something. Every loose ball and every other intangible is favoring the Cavs so I'm not betting against that home dog tonight. In fact, I much prefer Cleveland as a home dog taking back a tag. From what I've seen, Cleve should probably be up 3-0 in this series and it's surprising that they're taking back anything. Best of luck whichever way you decide to go.
Jun 10, 2015 22:17:12
I missed most of the webinars today,is there a way to watch the recorded version ?
Dogface
It is not recorded but I will be running another one next week and a few more until football season.
Jun 9, 2015 15:26:14
Hello all, Absolutely love your write-ups on the two MLB games tonight. The insight was great. Just about to dial in the the two matches. Thank you...very much for the help and the time it took for your research. Just one more thing however; will you have a write-up concerning game 4 of the Finals tomorrow. I'd be very much interested in your opinion.
David O
David: Because we have a bet on the series, we're passing on Game 4 of the NHL finals. The series is so close with the dog offering value in every game so far. That said, winning both game in Chicago is a tall task for the Bolts and so is winning three straight. Of course they can win tonight but we're happy to be sitting it out and HOPING they win as oppose to expecting them to win. Thanks for the kind words and best of luck whichever way you decide to go.
Jun 8, 2015 10:54:30
Just wondering when you're cashing that ticket. You post a great day in Saturday to follow it up with a zero for 3 skid.
LeBron
Actually it was a 0-2 day on Sunday, not 0-3 and K.C and Texas were tied in the eighth inning. That becomes a 50/50 proposition at that point. I'm just wondering why you're complaining about an 0-2 day when everyone on the planet that bets sports has them? Never mind. Forget I asked.
Jun 6, 2015 17:37:01
Hell of a day for you guys, great picks!! A bit of a nail biter for Milwaukee as I took them by 2, crazy way to get it. Needless to say great insight and glad the results backed up your analysis today. Here's to hoping you guys go on a bit of a run!
Eric
Thanks Eric. Would have been nice to get that last one but I'll take it, Garcia pitched a hell of a game but Kershaw, well, WOW.
Jun 3, 2015 15:14:09
I'll post before the game. You're going over in a game with Crawford, Belt, Pence and Marte sitting? No thanks I'll pass. Good luck,
Dennis
Jun 1, 2015 11:07:36
Very well said, I find it hard to keep my cool when people make comments about your picks and would blast them if I were you. If they know as much as they think they know they would already be rich from their picks and would not be looking at yours. Keep up the good intel.
MO
Mo: I try and give equal opportunity to all those that take the time to write, even those with negative comments. That said, the positive comments and encouragement from most far outweigh the haters. I've met GREAT people on here. I correspond with many on Twitter and email and it is truly an enjoyable experience. We're all here for the same reason and the support I get from this site is overwhelmingly positive. The negative comments phase me not. Thanks so much for taking the time to write. Here's to a profitable June and thanks again Mo for the support and kind words.
May 31, 2015 21:11:45
Always funny how the idiots come out during a losing streak but don't say anything when you were killing it in April. There was a point where I won 15 in a row in April, with 90% of those being your picks. May was a really rough month, but it happens. Some people have completely unrealistic expectations, and like you said you're not telling anyone to do anything. Looking forward to a profitable June! Cheers bud.
RV
Thanks RV. I truly appreciate the support and wise comments. Here is some advanced math/sabermetrics for these folks you're referring to: Value + Patience + Discipline + Persistence = Profit. If you want that get rich quick shit try the MegaMillions, Powerball or whatever lottery is in your area with 87 million to one odds. I try and make this business respectable by portraying realistic results and posting them for everyone to see. Also, I don't just talk the talk. I wager on every game I post. All the best RV and thanks for the well wishes.
May 31, 2015 14:18:58
Keuchel not better than Quintana write up is about all I need to know about your baseball knowledge, "Keuchel is definitely a decent pitcher but he’s definitely not better than Jose Quintana". I'll limit my losses after yesterday. Done here.
Don
Don: Whether you are "done here" or not makes no difference to me whatsoever. I don't ask anyone to wager on the games I post. The only thing I do is provide information and opinions on games. What you do with that info is up to you. As you know, luck plays a huge part in the outcome of so many games and the game you are referring to, Chicago was down 1-0 in the eighth inning. Houston's run was unearned. That's just one game but only an idiot wouldn't be able to acknowledge the VALUE in taking Chicago at +158 yesterday. Incidentally, Quintana and Keuchel came into the league at the same time and everything Quintana has done or continues to do is superior to what Keuchel has done over their four year careers. That includes ERA, strikeouts, walks, xERA, FIP and WAR. Furthermore, I do know a little about baseball. I study, watch and research these pitchers for hours a day and my record over the years is proof of the value I find in backing them. To make a comment based on one game or one week or one month is something I've gotten used to over the years and it comes from people like yourself who BLAME their losses on others. Look in the mirror.
May 31, 2015 10:21:39
A baseball winner in the near future would be nice This is bad.
Nate
Bad runs happen Nate. It's frustrating but it's only a month. Bad runs happen but in the long run, we'll make it up with interest. We always do.
May 23, 2015 13:04:31
Although Nick Martinez is off to a surprising start, I agree that his stats are a bit misleading. A few of his starts he was pulled early and had he gone another inning or 2 he would've lost and his ERA would be well above 3 most likely. However, for some reason when he pitches the Rangers have managed their bullpen extremely well, and the hitters have given him just enough or plenty of support. He's not an ace, but the guy keeps battling have to give him credit for that. Love this pick though.
Eric
May 17, 2015 14:49:12
You are correct there is not much value in my nhl totals, but I keep cashing, so I will keep hammering the under in the east and try over out west with a little more caution. Do you think the blue jays pitching woes will continue or can these pitchers come back to form?
TOM
Jays pitching staff is in trouble Tom so I doubt they'll contend this year. Buehrle is all luck and Dickey isn't far behind. However, I honestly think they're close with Sanchez, Norris, Strolman and Huthinson. Those 4 have the raw tools to be the most dominating rotation in baseball so things aren't looking bad at all. Wait one more year.
May 16, 2015 11:43:01
Was really hoping to see a pick for this afternoon's match between the Rangers and Bolts but that's okay, I love your baseball predictions, especially the Reds. Thanks for the insight on today's games. David
DavidO
David: Was simply not crazy about either side today. Was not confident enough in TB and did not want so spot a half puck w/Rangers.Good game but still a tough call. I also refuse to put up a play for the sake of ACTION. Best of luck the rest of the way.
May 13, 2015 09:17:20
Well, I was wrong about the Canadiens in 7. What a brutal Game 6 performance. Anyway, good series bet on your part Brian. Cheers
RV
You were wrong in the results RV but you were not wrong in your assessment of the series. Other than Game 6, Montreal outplayed the Bolts for the most part. Luck plays a huge part in the outcome of so many games and the series was actually as close as you called it. It could have easily gone the other way. Best of luck moving forward RV. You'll get em in the next series.
May 13, 2015 00:00:22
Rangers/Caps, game 7, you just have to love the under, this seems obvious
TOM
The problem Tom is that you have to lay -155 (or thereabouts) to play it under 5. That a bad wager with no value. Frankly, I can't stomach playing NHL games under 5. You only feel comfortable with the wager if the score is 1-0 or 0-0 heading to the third period. If both teams score a lousy two goals, it's a bet you cannot win. Personally, I would never bet under 5 in an NHL game but that's just me. Best of luck.
May 11, 2015 15:56:46
brian, are you still going to be doing some parlays. (unless i missed them,i have not seen them yet.) also, are you going to be doing horse racing again?
paul
Paul: I did post some parlays earlier this month and will post some more as soon as I heat up. I will also be doing horse racing and will be holding a horse racing webinar soon. See section on "upcoming webinars".
May 11, 2015 11:26:24
I have a question regarding the result of last weeks LA Dodgers - Colorado MLB game. You recommended LA on the runline (-1.5) but the game was called due to rain at the end of 5 innings with LA leading 2-1. I made this bet with a popular online betting site but they regarded it as a loss whereas you tagged it as a push (T). What is the rule in this situation or is it a site-by-site?
Newbie
Newbie: It is not site by site. It is a DEFINITE push on all sites and thus all bets must be returned. You need to contact the website and point it out. All run-line bets in baseball must go at least 9 full innings to be official. If you are still having problems please contact me with name of sportsbook and I promise to get the issue resolved in your favor.
May 10, 2015 11:31:35
Just want to say thanks again. I look forward to reading your insight every morning. Very impressive guys. Thanks very much. You really are to be commended. David
David O
Thank you David. I appreciate the time you took to write. It matters. Best of luck my friend.
May 8, 2015 18:00:36
Hey, another thing about those idiots like 'Miggy', is that they never post their own picks...at least before the game, that is.......they just tear down your picks despite the great research and analysis....anyways, I read you every day, and really appreciate all your hard work, and free analysis....
Jeff
You are welcome Jeff. Thanks for writing
May 8, 2015 17:08:49
Miggy, why don't you post your plays here if you think you can pick games? You won't because you would rather post B.S. than post plays. This site is a great site for sportsbetting, the plays are top notch along with the analysis.
Tim
Thanks Tim. We are done with Miggy. His posts or any responses to them will not be posted from this point forward. Thanks for all the support everyone.
May 8, 2015 12:33:35
Miggy what about the 50+ units on the NHL, what about the college basketball and college football season? And better yet, how about you post your own research for free with historical records to prove you don't suck. Oh... You can't do that? Then stfu. End of story. 2nd point Brian, I have followed every minute of the Chicago/Minny series and agreed with the series bet and the 1st 2 games and thought it was tremendous value to bet the Wild to win it all @+1585. I'm a decent hockey capper, I have too many things going on to post, but I read your site everyday and love the insight. It just pisses me off when people are that much of a dbag and can't even post a comment to back up any of the BS. We're all in the same boat, we want to smash the books. Anyways keep up the good work. I got the Flames tonight Reg Only, and for the series. Book it.
Pete
Thanks Pete. No doubt that Chicago played a great series and were impressive as hell. That's the way it goes. That series is now over and so it's onto the next. I've lost before and I'll lose again but will continue to dig for value in the numbers. Thanks for the support Pete.
May 8, 2015 11:28:35
Hey Tom and Sherwood - Get ready for a major correction . The analysis on some of these write ups couldn't be more off , especially on the pitchers . Nice read on the Wild. Fade alert !!
Miggy
All these guys like you Miggy end up disappearing, never to be heard from again. ALWAYS. These are the same comments I heard about Jared Weaver when he was winning and I kept fading him. I love fade alerts.
May 8, 2015 10:49:38
The complainers clearly are too immature to handle the ups and downs of sports wagering. Money management is surely a concept foreign to them. Keep up the hard work, your write-ups and selections are ALWAYS much appreciated by the vast majority.
Ralph
I do know that Ralph and thanks for taking the time to write. I post everyone's messages to be fair but they do not phase me in the least.
May 8, 2015 10:49:33
LOL to the previous posts. You've done fine by me in all your plays winners or losers. I will say one thing though, I keep thinking this bad stretch has to stop at some point and the day I layoff is the day you go perfect! It wasn't too long ago that Tuesday and Wednesday that you went 9-1 and I'm still playing with that money! Not bad for 2 really good days. We've managed to get out on weekends the last couple of weeks with a fairly good win ratio and cut losses to a minimum.. I'd just like to share this with you, I have stopped making my own plays (most times, sometimes the itch is too strong) I only play your games however what i do do is I take hockey for a 1 unit on whatever you play, i put a half unit on the the same team but either on the 60 minutes or OT included, whichever you didn't pick. I also play first 5 innings on baseball games you give us for the game, again 1 unit, half unit. If I'm feeling lucky I'll parlay your plays only into 3 & 4's depending on how many plays you give for 1/10 of a unit. So far it's worked, however i was already spending the winnings, so I'm a little deflated but still a firm believer! Keep up the great work! Just wanted to share.
Joe
Thanks Joe.
May 7, 2015 23:21:41
Hey Miggy, back home we call u a wanker, but here in Canada, your just a loser. Give up gambling my friend. When it gets this bad u need help. Whining and wanking, on a site where the man gives u free picks! Go to other sites and get the special lock of the year, for 100 dollars and don't worry! They will be giving u sure fire winners all spring on the nhl/nba/mlb etc..... ahh if it was that just that easy........
TOM
Thank you Tom. Nothing more needs to be said but I have to say Miggy's first hate mail was the first one I've received in almost a year. That in itself says things have been going pretty good for a while.
May 7, 2015 16:23:53
There goes 20 units of profits pissed away with another brutal stretch.
Miggy
Another brutal stretch? It's been about a year since I've had as you call it a "brutal stretch". In fact, had you followed all my picks to a tee for the past year, you would be up over 100 units. It amazes me how you haters just sit there waiting for an opportunity to chip in a worthless comment when things are not going well. Sorry Dude, I'm not going to join you in your misery. The good news is that for every one loser like yourself, there are 25 really positive and smart readers that share info and thoughts with me and appreciate the info I provide. We all have the same goal, which is to make money. Your goal is mope in misery. Let me know how that works out for you.
May 7, 2015 13:26:56
At least you are smart enough to cut your losses to an 8 unit beat down backing the Wild in this series.
Kane is pain
At least.
May 7, 2015 12:38:29
Hi Brian, how would you recommend dealing with bankroll/units when on a losing streak? Since Mid April I've gone on a bit of a losing streak and my bankroll is down to 60% of what it was 3 weeks ago. Should I continue betting the same units? Or decrease if it goes down to 50? Thanks. My concern is my bet size will become 5% of my bankroll it the streak continues and goes down to 50% of my roll.
Chris
Chris: When on an inevitable losing streak, (after two days) I would suggest you cut your unit bet between 15 and 20% and continue to drop it at that same rate every day the losing streak is extended. If you win one day, go back up at the same rate (15 or 20%) until you win 2 days in a row and then go back to your original amount. If on the third day. Also apply that same theory to winning streaks to maximize your profits. Hope this helps and I hope you snap out of it soon.
May 6, 2015 18:36:12
I haven't had much luck with games when I take them -1.5. Even when I'm on the right side I lose about half of these wagers because the winning team only wins by a run. Does that happen to you often and have you considered abandoning that type of bet? Steve
Steve
It's more risky; no question about it Steve but the payout is worth the risk a lot of the times. I think you've probably run into some bad luck because only about 30% of games are decided by one run. Therefore, when you are on the winning side of these bets you should be winning about 14 out of every 20 games. Keep with it because if you are on the winning side so often it will pay off over time. The math says so.
May 6, 2015 16:26:02
Did I miss something? When did Habs and Bolts play game three? Last time I checked the series was 2-0 Tampa Bay. I don't care how much better one team is you can't win a best of seven series in three games. Maybe you know something the rest of us don't.
Marv G
That's my bad Marv. Not sure why I thought they were up 3-0 but after reading your post and looking back on the series, obviously I thought they were up 3-0. What's even more remarkable is that you're the only one that pointed this out.
May 6, 2015 15:03:34
Anyone new to the site should be advised to check out your year-to-date results. When you are 6 games under .500 and turning a profit of 60 units with those results, you are doing something right.
Joel
Thanks Joel.
May 3, 2015 15:38:51
Anthopolous really hung the Jays out to dry with their rotation. My summer sucks before it has even begun.
Magus
I really don't blame AA Magus. Jays have run into some injuries and it's too early to truly assess the staff. Norris looks like a good one, Dickey gives them a chance to win almost every game and Hutch is very decent. The Stroman injury is very difficult to overcome. Hang in there because the AL East is so even that there's a great chance the Jays will be in the race all summer and into the fall.
May 3, 2015 12:43:53
Just wondering on your thoughts on the Anaheim game?absolutely great job on your analysis of the games,,thanks
Bk
Sorry BK, was having trouble with my feed on these messages. It seems to be fine now.
May 3, 2015 12:26:42
NHL, the money is in totals right now, Tampa/ Montreal under and Calgary /Anaheim over every game
TOM
You hit the nail right on the head Tom. Great call
May 1, 2015 15:01:27
Gonna have to say Montreal in 7, and took them +102 for the series. This is going to be a great series, and as we have seen in the previous round (OTT vs MTL) the regular season stats for W L are irrelevant. I'm going to disagree with your pick for tonight on TB based on a couple of things. This is Tampa Bay's 6th game in 11 nights with plenty of travel. Tampa is a tired team, coming off an emotional Game 7 win on Wednesday, followed by an immediate 3 hour flight to Montreal. I don't think they take Game 1, but let's look at the rest of the series. If Price is Price and is in his Hart/Vezina form, then Montreal takes it, even with the sputtering offense of the Habs. Both powerplays are struggling. Price is going to steal games in this series, but so will Bishop. Tampa is pissed from last year, and they want revenge. They have a great offense but they're running into the team that had the least amount of goals allowed in the regular season. In that situation, I take the least amount of goals allowed if I have to pick, and I take Carey Price. Bishop shut the door when needed in Game 7, as did Price. But let's not forget, this is Ben Bishop's 8th playoff game. I think Montreal jumps on a tired Tampa team here, fresh off an emotional win, but it's gonna be a roller coaster. I like that the Habs have home ice, where Tampa was the best at this year, and I like the fact that the Habs have Carey Price, who knows when to shut er down with an average at best team. Thanks for reading, Canadiens in 7.
RV
RV: With all due respect, I don't put a lot of emphasis on fatigue in the playoffs. These are young guys in their prime so 1 days rest is plenty when we're talking about playoffs. In the regular season fatigue can be applied but it cannot in the first game of a playoff round with a hungry team like TAMPA BAY. Doesn't mean they'll win but I'm not buying the angle. Best of luck in every other series and thanks for chipping in.
May 1, 2015 08:42:19
Love the Flames story but you're dead-on when it comes to Hiller. Ramo is a better option but still not a winning one. They'll take a game but Ducks are a near sure thing. I'm thinking Tampa holds some value on road with Habs but the series is a tossup. Best, as always!
Magus
Agree Magus, Ramo has to be in net for the rest of this series but like you say, it's likely not going to matter. Ducks got a big break when Calgary defeated the Canucks. As for TB/MON, not so sure that the series is a tossup but time will tell. Best of luck to you too.
Apr 30, 2015 22:29:56
Excellent work on the Caps. They have the 2 best players in the series and we need to stay on them since we didn't make a series play. They should win in 5 or 6, and be a dog for each game, so there is plenty of profit potential. Hindsight is 20-20, but we should have stayed with your original 3 plays today. When was the last time a team was doubled-up in the NBA? What a dreadful way to end the season for the Bucks. On their home court no less. Let's keep this rolling tomorrow!
Joel
Thanks Joel
Apr 30, 2015 16:20:05
What's your take on the Flames/Ducks series/game 1. Do you think the Flames have any value on them?
Eric
Eric: Sorry I didn't answer this before the series started last night but I didn't see it until this morning. However, had I seen any value on the Flames, I would have bet them last night and/or in the series. Calgary is a nice story but all year I've had big-time concerns about Jonas Hiller. Hiller is putrid and probably won't see another start in these playoffs. Had the Canucks stayed with Lack, we wouldn't even be discussing the Flames because Calgary would have lost Game 7.
Apr 27, 2015 17:37:23
Congrats are in order for this seasons' NHL betting record to date. And as for baseball, I love the video clips you posted on the Milw/Cinci game. Just goes to show what a quality site this is
Brian Hayward
Thank you Brian.
Apr 26, 2015 14:52:12
Any thoughts on ottawa montreal tonight? Thanks
Chris
Chris: Nobody can argue that Montreal is the better team. Had Ottawa scored in OT, this series would be over. Basically it's going to come down to goaltending, as Price is going to need a monster game for the Habs to win. He's done it before and he can surely do it again. With the Sens being a slight fav, I don't see any value whatsoever in either side. Hold a gun to my head I would absolutely play Ottawa cause I'm pretty damn sure they will outplay Montreal. A better bet might be to play Ottawa in the updated series price and if they should win tonight, you have a pretty sweet bet going into Game 7. Best of luck whatever you do.
Apr 26, 2015 14:34:02
Care to share your early season starting pitcher regression candidates from what you've seen in the first month?
Shane
Shane: That's an article that would take too much time and space to address here. If there are specific pitchers you are interested in hearing about, please email me and I can update you with more info. Otherwise, in my daily selections, you will see which pitchers are projected to regress and/or improve.
Apr 25, 2015 11:55:15
Can't express how relieved I am now after reading your picks. I love all three but was a little apprehensive until I read your comments. Thanks guys. Appreciate it... David
David
You're welcome Dave. Thanks for taking the time to write.
Apr 24, 2015 06:12:55
I know were in a bit of a rut but it happens. There was a point this month where I won 16 picks in a row, but then the evil losing streak comes haha. Anyway keep up the good work, we will be back in the black soon
RV
Thanks RV.
Apr 23, 2015 16:57:28
With all due to respect to what Eddie Lack has done this season, As well as your educated decision to go with the Flames, the playoffs is a whole new game. I know you don't need to hear that you already know, however, I think the Canucks choosing Miller has everything to do with experience, a guy who has been there before and knows how to win. Personally, I think Canucks win and Miller will be solid. Not to shoot down your pick there I get the value part of it but road hiller vs home miller, the value isn't as real as it seems. Canucks roll 5-0.
Eric
Apr 23, 2015 08:59:10
Nice job guys. I just do a small wagering gig in Alberta, and stumbled across your site. There needs to be more solid leads like yourselves to bet sports like you guys, and for free yet. The ads are placed nicely, and I love how you get the Daily Fantasy gigs subtly in the write-ups. The write-ups and info are really, really good too. You guys got your shit together. Well played. Will continue to visit. Best of luck.
Motown Fisher
Thanks for the kind words Motown. Glad you found us and glad you enjoyed the content. Best of luck to you too.
Apr 22, 2015 22:04:56
Placed my last hockey bet for the season. You're not seeing things too well.
Oshi
Nothing wrong with laying off Oshi. It's been a good year in the NHL for us but I still feel we're seeing things fine in terms of playing value. Winnipeg blew three-third period leads and the Senators lost three games decided by one-goal with two of those in OT. So many of these games are decided by pure luck (you either get the bounces or not) and those bounces have not been going our way the past week or so.
Apr 21, 2015 10:39:23
Would love to see your thoughts on why you laid off each playoff game or series (NHL & NBA).
Jason
Jason: if I don't see value, I don't bet them. I try and find the BEST value of the night and those are the games I play.
Apr 21, 2015 09:35:35
Hi B- Was wondering if you ever place correlated bets when laying runs/pucks or with ML picks? I.e. Betting pirates both -1/2 and -1.5, or betting Blackhawks ML along with -1/2 regulation. Maybe it makes more sense for baseball, as there are more runaway games with 6+ runs scored by one team than in hockey. Just a thought, love your write ups and way of hunting down value. Thanks for everything you do.
Will
Will: What your referring to is NOT a correlated parlay. You are just asking if I bet both the ML and point spread and there are times that I do. There is nothing correlated about that. A correlated parlay means when one event happens, the other is also likely to take place. For instance, a correlated parlay would be Chicago -1½ over Nashville parlayed onto over 5½ in that same game. That's correlated because if Chicago happens to win by 1½ goals it's very likely to go over 5½. The reverse is also true...Nashville +1½ onto Nashville under 5½ is also correlated. Correlated parlays in football would be taking the dog and the under or the favorite and the over. Most books, in fact all of them that I know of do not allow you to make these bets because they have a high probability of cashing. NO SPORTSBOOK in the world will allow you to correlate an NHL game. Try betting Chicago and over tonight in the NHL and I guarantee you your bet will be refused. Anyway, thanks for bringing this topic up Will and best of luck to you too.
Apr 17, 2015 15:51:14
Hi Sherwood Are you still thinking of posting parlay plays? Have not seen any yet. Thanks
Craig
Yes, Craig, I definitely will start posting parlays as early as next week.
Apr 15, 2015 14:10:01
Love your picks today. Here's to a profitable playoffs...
David
Apr 14, 2015 12:15:55
Hello Sherwood. I was wondering if you ever consider betting the 1st 5 Inning lines in Baseball wagers? I find there is value at times when a team I like may fail with their suspect Bullpen. Keep up the awesome work!
Rob
Rob, I sometimes do and did quite a bit of it last year but in the long run it has neither proved more valuable or profitable so I pretty much stopped. You may think you have an edge but I found that it costs you as many games as it helps you. Besides, I play mostly on BETFAIR exchange now, so I'm able to buy back any liability after 5 innings (or any time) if my choice is leading.
Apr 14, 2015 10:01:02
Any series predictions for the NHL playoffs where you see value? Thinking of taking the Winnipeg Jets over Anaheim +136 in the upset, and Calgary +130 over Vancouver. Thoughts?
Chris
Chris: My NHL playoff series selections will be posted today (Tuesday) and Winnipeg will be among them. As for Calgary, I'm not sure there is value there, as the price seems about right so I'm likely going to wait on that series before doing anything. We'll have 3 series plays for sure and many individual games as well. BEST OF LUCK Chris.
Apr 11, 2015 11:41:07
Hi Sherwood, Do you ever parlay at all? Just curious if you do or not and why. I personally don't, I find it hard enough to win one game let alone 2-3 consecutively. Thanks buddy, and keep up the good work.
Chris
Chris: Everything I do is based on value and there is some in parlaying money line dogs. I often parlay ML dogs in baseball and hockey and I will be posting some of those in the very near future. Stay tuned and watch out for some baseball and NHL parlays appearing in today's picks over the next few weeks. It'll give you an idea of how to profit by wagering on parlays.
Apr 10, 2015 11:28:53
Hello Brian, David from Thornhill. Just wanted to introduce myself and to express my gratitude. You are very talented. I look forward to reading your posts daily. I truly feel that you are one of the best handicappers out there. Thanks again, Brian
David
David: I'm glad that you stopped in and said hello. I truly appreciate the kind words and the time you took to write to express your gratitude. It's messages like this that keeps me focused and working hard. All the best David. Stay in touch.
Apr 9, 2015 18:18:52
Hi, Brian Great start in mlb back to back days sweeping the board just awesome. I forgot to wager on one of your plays today it was the Tor @ Ny game. Would you still recommend me betting on the game the line is at -130 now 5dimes account or is all the value gone on that play? It seems like your best sport is mlb followed by nhl is this true? I like the fact that you play mostly dogs and small favorites in mlb. I think this is the only way you could beat the oddsmakers and be plus units at the end of the year. Also, I like that you are very selective in making plays and not betting every game you see. These scumbag handicapping services put out 8+ games a day mostly favorites and on top of that they don't even have their own money on the games. It makes me sick to my stomach how anybody that desperate could pay for plays when there are legit sportsbettors out there very few I may say on twitter or have their own website that are researching their plays and betting on them with their hard earned money and not asking for a dime. You are one of the few out there that do it the right way you put your money where your mouth is. If you ask me it doesn't get any better than that. Keep the winners coming! Thanks again for your dedication and hard work! Dan
Dan
Dan, Sorry I didn't respond before the Jays game, as I was out and couldn't get to it fast enough. In regards to your other comments, I very much appreciate the kind words and acknowledgement of the dedication I put in. MLB and NHL are definitely my favorite sports because of the money line value in them. The other sports have the great equalizer, which is the point spread and the bookmakers are worthy adversaries. Your letter hits on some key points in regards to tout services. Thanks for taking the time to write, as your letter made my day. Peace Dan and best of luck.
Apr 9, 2015 15:36:12
Congrats on a great night last night Brian, as always great picks and analysis! Keep up the good work. Much appreciated. Funny how the haters don't comment when you're doing well, but come out of the woodwork when you're on a losing skid lol.
RV
Haters are really just miserable people that have nothing positive to add to anything but you're right, they completely disappear and look for someone else to rag on when things are going well. Thanks for the kind words RV and you're very welcome. Best of luck.
Apr 9, 2015 14:49:54
Do you see significant value in taking the Flames tonight? Kings are playing 4th game in 6 nights and seems like fatigue may really be setting in on them. Calgary at home is sure to come out stronger than ever, Hartley has pushed these guys so hard it would just be wrong if they weren't able to clinch on home ice against the only team left possible to catch them.
Eric
Eric: If you see value, then you should bet it. I don't see it. For one, I can't stand Hiller. He's garbage. Secondly, LA coming off bad loss in EDM and will surely be better tonight. All the advanced stats say LA is a powerhouse while Calgary is a fringe playoff team or worse. Lastly, Kings coach Darryl Sutter would rather beat Flames than make playoffs, that's how much he hates that organization. I'm not interested in fading Kings with their lives on the line against a vastly inferior foe.
Apr 9, 2015 11:48:33
According to Larry Brooks, Nash, Zuccarrello, and Staal will all sit tonight. As of now Ottawa is plus money at +110. Thoughts?
R
I'm on it R. See write-up today
Apr 6, 2015 18:48:48
Props to you Sherwood, as I was incorrect on my Sharks analysis. Goaltending was their nemesis in their latest loss. You called it all year with that team and I guess I got a little over excited with their last run. Anyways, keep up the good work and great pick on dallas tonight. As well as Wisconsin, another solid pick of yours. Excited to see your picks in the playoffs.
Eric
Thank you Eric.
Apr 6, 2015 18:05:02
I'm a little surprised you are not on the Sabres tonight. Being asked to lay -185 with the NHLs 4th worst road team seems ludicrous. Maybe Vegas is being influenced by the "tank" talk, but anyone who has been paying attention would know the Sabres coach and players are using the local media and fans desire to finish 30th as motivation to win these remaining games. They certainly could lose, but +160 at home is good value.
Joel
You nailed it Joel.
Apr 5, 2015 18:08:32
Brian: I saw value today in taking the flyers over the penguins as home dogs. Looking back over the series so far this year, the flyers have won the previous 3 games (I know you dont like people writing in after the game is over, but I liked the flyers before the game began. I just didnthave time to write this before. You will have to trust me on this one) your comments on the game?
paul
Paul: I saw some value too but the fact that Philly defeated Pitt every game this year made me back off. It is so difficult for one team to defeat another 6 times in a season and Philly is not the better team. Incidentally, Pitt outshot Philly 47-20 so if you did bet Philly, consider the money a gift because they Pens dominated from start to finish.
Apr 5, 2015 13:59:20
Hi Sherwood, I know you say the betting sites on your website are very reputable and I believe that, as I use one with no issues. Having said that, I only have a few hundred dollars in there. Have there been any bad stories of people not getting paid out from Pinnacle with large withdrawals? Say in the thousands? Just curious, as I'm looking to up my ante, but want security. Thanks
John
John: You will have no issues whatsoever with Pinnacle or any other sponsors on my site. You can win in the 10's of thousands or 20x that and not have a problem at all. I personally guarantee all my sponsors and will go on record as saying I would personally pay you all winnings if they did not. You need not be concerned. Thanks for writing and best of luck.
Apr 5, 2015 11:00:43
Hi Sherwood. How do you think Tiger Woods will do at the Masters? Is there any value on betting him to win or is he done?
Tim
Tim: Tiger Woods has no chance whatsoever. He's lost it and he's lost it badly. If he had to qualify for the event, he would not be able to do so. You have a way better chance of betting against him (to not make the final cut after two days), or head to head than you do of betting on him. Tiger Woods should be 1000-1 to win because that's about his chances. I'm serious too. Don't waster your money. The networks love that he's playing and they'll try and spruce up his chances and make it "The Tiger Show" because he attracts so many viewers and interest. Don't get caught up in it. He can't putt anymore and he can't drive with accuracy anymore either.
Apr 4, 2015 15:21:58
With all due respect, and you know I'm one of your biggest supporters, it's not the players who have embraced the tank in Arizona but rather the management and (maybe) the coaching staff. So what makes them, and the Sabres, a questionable wager at any price is the fact that the team on the ice has been assembled for the purpose of losing. So while the players will give their all, they just are so disadvantaged they really don't have a chance. If it sounded like I was saying the players are in on it, then I'm sorry for the suggestion. Best of luck going forward.
Joel
That's a different angle that makes a lot more sense Joel. It's also very true, especially so since the deadline. Best of luck to you too, Joel
Apr 4, 2015 12:42:54
Alright fair enough that commenting after the result was in was not very credible. I Watched the game and the Sharks were typical sharks. Exploded in the first period, 2 quick goals, than virtually slacked off and went to sleep. I disagree that goaltending has been an issue as Niemi most nights has done all he can to keep them in games. The team in front of him is what the issue was. I still think they've turned a corner barely and are dangerous, I just believe they went up 2-0 and got caught looking to the next one. Gotta give some credit to them as they didn't roll over so quickly despite a terrible year on and off the ice. But as for today, I love the blue jackets pick. No introductions needed with that team, pretty crazy role they're on. I think detroit has value with datsyuk a potential go but I get the risks that come with them and facing the Wild. As for a long bomb, I wouldnt be surprised to see the Leafs stun the Bruins tonight. A lot of chalk there and these guys have had a good week finally. Bruins are a shaky team despite their recent record. Long shot, but worth a shot, for what it's worth.
Eric
That's fair.
Apr 4, 2015 10:45:26
The Sabres players are trying to stick it to the "fans" who have been cheering against them at recent home games. In the past week they have been playing with more passion and enthusiasm than they demonstrated all season. Arizona's players, on the other hand, appear to have embraced the idea of 30th place. They have not won in regulation since Feb 3.
Joel
Enough already about this ridiculous conversation. Arizona hasn't won in reg since Feb 3rd because they are crap. To give you an idea of how crap they are, Keith Yandle is their leading scorer and he was traded long ago. Suggesting these guys are tanking is ludicrous because should they get a "great player" or two in the draft it would mean some of these other guys will be riding buses and playing in the minors next year. Think about that. The choice for the players is play hard and try and secure my spot on the roster next year or tank and spend the year in the minors eating peanut butter and jelly sandwiches. If they were tanking, they would not be close. What, you think they are saying, let's lose 2-1 in OT or 3-2 and make it close? Give your head and shake and think about what you are saying. It's fucking ludicrous to suggest they are losing on purpose. Seriously. CONVERSATION OVER! I will not comment on this subject again.
Apr 4, 2015 04:57:22
Just to add to that comment below, the Buffalo Sabres made it very clear last week, after their overtime loss to the Coyotes, that the players have absolutely nothing to do with "tanking". It's an annoying term, even though I wont deny that it does happen it is all based on the owners and upper management. So I would never use tanking as a reason not to take value, after all, the Sabres came right back and beat Arizona in Arizona, and came very close to beating Chicago last night. As for the Coyotes pick, although it was only one unit I still think that pick was not very good at all. Given the Sharks recent surge and their slim (but realistic) playoff hopes on the line, if they were going to lose to Arizona it would be the back half of the home and home. Agree? I think 2 units on Sharks -1.5 in this spot would've been worth more than the 'Yotes. Sharks are dangerous, they're trying to set up that finale with the Kings with as much meaning as possible and until its officially over, i'd recommend backing them till the final game.
Eric
Eric: With all due respect, I would make that same bet almost every time because of the extreme value on it. San Jose cannot be priced in that range. Incidentally, Arizona was down 2-1 with 7 minutes remaining and they also had a goal disallowed in the first. The first star of that game was Antti Niemi so anyone that laid -277 was sweating bullets, while I had a smile on my face, thinking it was going to pay off and wishing I had wagered 2 units instead of 1. Incidentally, San Jose had 6 PP opportunities in that game last night while the "Yotes had NONE. San Jose is not dangerous. They are a soft group that rarely wins when it counts most and I would not recommend backing them from here on in because of that. They also have weak goaltending on most nights. It's very easy to play results and sending me a message after the game is final is weak. Had Arizona won and they damn well could have, this message would not have been written. You have an opinion on game you want to share or comment on? Do so before it starts and not when it's over. By the way, I think Colorado was a good bet last night.
Apr 3, 2015 12:29:22
One unit sounds about right for the Coyotes wager. Having said that, they on the brink of securing a franchise player so it wouldn't be at all surprising to see them lose out the rest of the season. Their most recent effort, a decisive home defeat to Buffalo suggests they may be finished winning games this season. Looking forward to your NCAA selections. I really like both favorites.
Joel
Joel: I have to disagree about the Coyotes. No team tanks on purpose. Buffalo could have lost on purpose to Toronto this past week but they didn't. If Phoenix didn't tank against Detroit or BUFFALO last week in Buffalo, why would they tank now? They could have sealed that last place finish long ago if they were intent on tanking. That loss to Buffalo was just that, a loss. Not saying they are going to win tonight but I am saying they will be trying.
Apr 3, 2015 08:46:16
That moment where you're so used to betting 2 units (dollar amount) then you accidentaly bet 6 units thinking its 3. Ah well hoping the Yankees win less than 82 games lol.
Rob
Amen to that Rob and to Tanaka blowing out his elbow very early.
Apr 2, 2015 16:03:04
Hey Sherwood - If you could only bet one sport not based on favorite but what you feel you would make the most profit in what would it be? Nice baseball run . Looking forward to the season.
Len
Without hesitation, I would choose baseball followed by NHL.
Apr 1, 2015 14:21:45
Just returned from The Rampart casino here in Vegas and bet the Yankees under 82.5 with juice of -110. I could have chosen 83 at -105 but didn't. I tried to bet the TX Rangers there a week ago and they had no line. Tried again today and "No line". ThePalms yesterday had the Rangers at 74 1/2. I passed.
Mick Maguire
Hmmm, why didn't you choose 83 -105? It's a better number with less juice? I'm thinking you probably wrote that wrong Mick. In any case, I'm very confident that you have a winning bet there. As for the Rangers, I had a strong inclination that number would drop because it was a bad line (hugely favorable number) at 78½ or 76½. Best of luck Mick.
Mar 31, 2015 15:15:30
Hey Sherwood, just wondering why you're not keen on Tampa -0.5, -120 tonight in Toronto vs. the Leafs with Reimer going. I know Tampa recently clinched a playoff spot by beating Montreal, but still plenty to play for as only 1 point behind Montreal and tied with the Rangers for the lead in the Eastern Conference. Tampa is resting Bishop tonight, but Vasilevskiy is 3-1 in March with a .934 save percentage, and Stamkos is always pumped to play in his hometown. Thoughts?
Brent Walter
It's not a bad wager at all Brent. Personally, I don't like the spot for Bolts after defeating Montreal again and I really don't like spotting a half puck and juice on the road. That said, I expect Tampa to win easy but that's an opinion only. No value there.
Mar 31, 2015 00:35:24
Sherwood, you are correct again on the Flames. Geez I live in Calgary and cannot put down money on this group. My mistake. Bob Hartley is an excellent coach and has his group always primed, this team plays hard every night. Great calls all year Sherwood
TOM
In your defense Tom, Calgary got lucky last night and every time I bet the Flames with Hiller in net, it takes me about two weeks to get over it. From his "mask" to his style, to the way he moves on his knees, I swear he looks like a 10-year-old kid out there sometimes. Still, the team has offered up tremendous value all year and certainly weren't lucky against Nashville on Monday. Sometimes the toughest bet is with or against the team from the city you live in and sometimes the easiest bet is for or against the team from the city you live in. Thanks for writing Tom.
Mar 30, 2015 09:22:06
I'll be watching the webinar this Wed! Only problem is I'm in Florida and Betfair doesn't seem to allow accounts from the US. Can I adapt your "free roll" techniques to work in the traditional live betting area of regular sportsbooks? If so, which one(s) do you recommend?
Dolfan99
You can use it Dolfan but it's not as effective because the traditional sportsbooks take the games off the board during live play and put up adjusted lines during timeouts, commercials and intermissions while BETFAIR's markets are live the entire game and never come off the board. I'm really not sure which sportsbooks allow US players other than 5DIMES. They are a great sportsbook that I use but I don't use any of the traditional one's for live betting so therefore I cannot recommend any. Anyway, hope to see you Wednesday at the WEBINAR.
Mar 28, 2015 10:11:33
Going back to the end of February I think we're 1 for 7 wagering on the Flames. They were a nice story, but the season is slipping away from them and it appears the loss of Giordano has caught up to them. I think we'd be throwing good money after bad chasing them down the stretch.
Joel
Everyone keeps writing this team off and I have no idea why. If Hiller wasn't in net, I would play them today against Nashville because of value. Don't sell them short Joel. Been saying that all year. Best of luck
Mar 26, 2015 15:41:14
Quick question, for the rangers you mentioned you liked the under most of the time but last year you hit the Brewers over. Do you still look at overs or just focus on under value?
Michael
I did mention that Michael and as you recall, I had Atlanta under last year too. I mentioned that if you're going to play an over, be sure the number is favorable and that's the only reason I played Milwaukee last year. For season totals in any sport, I ALWAYS look for unders because it's much easier to find value in them. When I'm studying the unders, I also look at over the total as well but it REALLY has to stick out for me to play it over.
Mar 25, 2015 15:20:36
Thanks for posting the Notre Dame pick early. If you have already decided, would you mind posting your picks for Friday before the first tip tomorrow. I might want to parlay your selections for this round of games if there are going to be multiple selections.
Joel
No promises Joel but I will do my best to post all games before Thursday's tip-off. Best of luck.
Mar 25, 2015 08:42:21
Sherwood: I can't thank you enough for your generosity of your time in running the NBA webinars. Last night, I started with a $9 bet on Milwaukee to beat Miami. I put your strategy to work and was free rolling very early. Anyway to make a long story short, at one point, after "switching" several times I was free rolling for $28 on Miami and Milwaukee went to 12-1. As per your strategy, I wagered the full $28 on Milwaukee and wouldn't you know it, they hit a shot at the buzzer to win it 89-88 and I cashed out $336 for a $6 bet. Your strategy is brilliant and it has worked for me on many other games as well. Thanks again Sherwood.
Chazz
Thanks for taking the time to let me know Chazz. Seems like a few people did very well on that game. More importantly, stick with it and learn it and you'll do well every week in basketball and football. Your message made my day. Keep it going!
Mar 23, 2015 12:13:32
Hey Sherwood, I usually agree with you and have done very well shadowing your bets while researching mine, but today I have to strongly disagree with the analysis of the Ottawa-San Jose game. First, lets be real, the Sharks are dead, they are a very average group of forwards with a decent defense corps and a terrible goalie. They have 3 better teams then them to leapfrog and 6 points to make up. Ottawa is a top 10 offensive team in the NHL for the season. Living in Ottawa, I follow them very closely for betting purposes, and yes they have been erratic in goal the last 3 games but they still find ways. Hammond is a flash in the pan, he may be an average #1 goalie but he's no superstar. Ottawa's +19 in goal differential and that includes the terrible stretch from November to January under Paul McClean. There is little value in betting an ice cold team who is only coasting to the offseason vs a team as battle tested as the Senators. But you are right, the Sens in this game are overvalued and I wouldn't lay a half puck to get close to even money. This is a one goal game brewing. Sorry for the long winded answer and keep up the fantastic work.
Pete
Thank you Pete. I always respect those that comment before a game as oppose to after it. Living in Ottawa, I'm sure you have a better feel for the Sens than I do (unless you're a fan of course) so I have to appreciate what you said. However, judging by their play of late, I don't agree that the Sharks have quit and at the very worst, they surely want to make life miserable for a team trying to get in. We shall see soon enough. Thanks very much for the message, the kind words and the support.
Mar 23, 2015 06:52:14
Great work on Louisville yesterday. I heard a "vegas insider" on the radio yesterday call for a Northern Iowa win, and remembered that you have been telling us all year that the Panthers were overrated. Sure enough, an hour or so later the L'Ville pick was up on the site. Looking forward to continued success in the Sweet 16 and beyond.
Joel
Thanks Joel. Still reeling/steamed a bit about Saturday but yesterday was a decent bounce back day. Should have had Duke yesterday as well but I missed it. Anyway, thanks for writing and best of luck to you too Joel.
Mar 21, 2015 11:26:45
Hi, I've been doing live betting since you let us know about it and I know you're looking at situations where an early lead can be bet against at high odds. Smart. Just wondering if you ever do this at lower odds. I played Cleveland at home after Brooklyn got up 13 points very early. I got 1.44 and it just seemed like free money. It's worked a few other times as well. Am I being stupid? Derek
Derek
Derek: There are several ways of approaching that live betting market and if that works for you I would urge you to continue doing what your doing. If you're making money, you are definitely not being stupid but you'll have to see if your model works over a longer period before it can be classified as being profitable. Let me know from time to time how you're doing Derek. I think your model can work too because when favorites fall behind they always go on a run to take a lead and once they take a small lead, you are in good position.
Mar 20, 2015 17:26:41
Hi Sherwood, I have participated in a couple of your online tutorials for Betfair, and have opened an account. I\'m having trouble finding the site you were using to get the most up to date scores .... I thought it was \"flashscore\", but that doesn\'t seem to be it. Please advise when you get a chance. Thanks in advance, Brent
Brent
Here's the link Brent: http://www.flashscore.com/basketball/usa/nba/ Best of luck and let me know how you're making out.
Mar 16, 2015 17:11:29
Love your write-ups that are quite compelling and love to pound em . Now for the Mayweather , Pacquiao fight . Pinny -200 ,Bet 365 -200 . Because the big juice I'am now Parlaying my bets to Mayweather . Your thoughts would be appreciated .
patrick smith
Patrick: Mayweather might be the most arrogant athlete in the history of pro sports. He never takes a fight that he is 100% sure he's going to win. This fight should have happened 6 years ago but Mayweather wasn't 100% sure he could win 6 years ago so he didn't sign. Now it's nothing more than a big spectacle and a cash grab. It's more hype than substance but I would have to agree that Mayweather is quicker and in much better form. Dude hasn't been hit in 10 years while Pacquiao has been battered, bruised and hit in the head over and over during his last few fights. My guess is that Mayweather will win because he would not get in the ring if he thought he had even a 1% chance of losing.
Mar 15, 2015 22:10:53
Hey Sherwood, huge fan of your site and hard work. Gotta say this is my favorite of the time as March Madness rolls around. Just a quick note to mention that I wish you had some sort of pool or bracket contest. Keep up the good work and hope you enjoy the tourney as much as I do.
Al
Thanks Al. I ran a brackets pool last year and the response was not very good so I skipped it this year. I suppose it's because there are literally thousands of other Bracket pools. We are however, running a free Fantasy Baseball with cash prizes and anyone interested can see the details in the "Pools" section of this site. Enjoy the Madness Al and best of luck.
Mar 14, 2015 11:01:46
Correct the red text on your St Louis/Minnesota prediction today - you're taking the Wild but it says St Louis at the top of the write-up.
Dave
Thanks Dave
Mar 14, 2015 09:49:57
We deserved better last night. A couple of tough losses on the hardwood that we were definitely on the right side of. Looking forward to those bounces evening out. Perhaps as soon as today. I was little surprised that UAB didn't make the card yesterday. I recall that you were quite bullish on them earlier this season.
Joel
Florida had two open looks on Kentucky with 4 seconds left. One of them goes down and that's a winner instead of a loser. Ditto with Tennessee and VCU. Philly goes into OT with Chicago and loses by 9 after we took 7½. These aren't isolated games. This stuff happens every night. Of those 4 games, luck was the deciding factor in all of them. We could have gone 0-4, 1-3, 2-2, 3-1 or 4-0 so any tout that says they can hit 70% is so full of crap that it's not funny. It's virtually impossible. It's like saying you can flip a coin and hit 70% tails over a million flips. It's for that reason we always stress value Joel because 80-90% of all games are nothing but pure luck. I laid off the last couple of days of college because we weren't getting the bounces. Hopefully we'll get some bounces in the tourney and some easy winners too. Thanks for writing Joel.
Mar 10, 2015 12:41:11
Just wondering why no interest in BYU tonight, SportSelect has them at +9.5?
Mike
I pay no attention to Sport Select. They are often way off on lines and it's their mistake not a mistake by Vegas oddsmakers so Sport Select line means jack. BYU just defeated the Zags recently and this time the Zags will take them a little more seriously. Last time they played, only about 2 weeks ago, BYU was getting 12 points. The value on them tonight is gone.
Mar 8, 2015 04:24:01
Brian : I had quit Betfair years ago. Last night I re joined with excellent service from them. Went thru your web site again . Looking forward to this coming Monday March 16th. Again thanks for your great work/passion . Always: Your Silent Follower : Mr. W. Baxter.
Mr. W. Baxter
Great to hear Mr. B. Looking forward to it also. Thanks again for your continued support.
Mar 3, 2015 06:51:35
Good morning Sherwood. What are your thoughts on the race to 30th being staged by Buffalo and Arizona in terms of wagering opportunities? The opening line for Buffalo v. Tampa Bay tonight does not look that different from the final line from their last meeting in Tampa. Consider that since that time either injury or trade has subtracted from the Sabres two NHL-calibre goalies, Girgensons, Stafford, Stewart, Mitchell, Flynn, Myers and possibly Ennis while in their place tonight will be AHL callups, Bogosian and either Lindback or Chad Johnson. Is there potential value in the puck line at -1.5 or perhaps alternative puck lines where you can lay 2 pucks or more? My only concern here would be that Ted Nolan has experience coaching in these situations as this game on paper does resemble Latvia v. Canada. Arizona could be in a similar spot tonight hosting the Ducks. Looking forward to your insights. Thanks!
Joel
Joel: I would not put Arizona in same category as Buffalo but if you do then you can get Ducks at -1½ +140 at most places. Arizona still has some talent left but I do have to agree with you about the Sabres. Buffalo is completely depleted on defense, up front and in goal. They have officially "tanked". I have no idea how they stay within 3 or 4 goals of the Bolts so the best value might be TB -1½ -125. That's how I would play it. -2½ isn't a bad option either at + money because it's is exactly how you describe it (Canada v Latvia). Best of luck.
Feb 25, 2015 14:55:19
Hey Brian, I bet the Isles to win the division earlier this season at 11-1 and I'm facing an interesting situation. They are ahead but the Rangers are right behind and the Caps (unlikely) and the Penguins (very unlikely) are in striking distance. Would you hedge at bad odds with the Rangers or even Washington and Pittsburgh?
Pete
Pete: Good luck with your bet. I would not hedge with Pitt or Wash. However, depending on the odds and what you wagered, I might hedge with the Rangers because they have a shot for sure. My best advice is to stay with the bet because you are getting tremendous value with the Islanders this late in the season. Hope it works out for you.
Feb 25, 2015 08:46:29
I wonder what your view is on your basketball spreads and reducing the vig by shaving some points from the standard line to get a better price. Most books will quote multiple lines around the main spread. Have you done any analysis on your previous picks to see if this could increase profits?
hoodlight
Have not done any analysis on that but I would never buy points and pay more because that's a suckers bet. However, I would certainly consider taking less points with a dog at a plus price or spotting more points with a fav at a + price. If a team is a -4 point fav for instance, I would look at laying -5 or -5½ and taking back an extra 15 or 20 cents (e.g MINN tonight spotting -3 would be +109 instead of -2 -109). I think it could be a smart move and I'm going to track it. Thanks for a good letter Hood.
Feb 21, 2015 16:16:50
Hi Brian. If you were to ask me at the start of the day who NC Wilmington and Towson were I couldn't have told you. I jumped on board after thinking if you can analyze these two teams it must have been for a reason. Great Play!!!
Steve
Thanks Steve. Unfortunately I had a poor day in the NHL so the day as a whole wasn't very good. We'll look to rebound tonight. Incidentally, I do follow the Colonial Conference rather closely and have made several plays this year on teams in that conference.
Feb 21, 2015 09:50:29
Hey Brian, Just wanted to thank you for your ongoing hard work. I don't post on here but felt I should write this. I don't think it's anyone's business what the sportsbook sponsors pay you to advertise on this site, the bottom line is you are offering free picks that have put profits in the bank over the years. I don't think anyone discusses their salary with strangers/acquaintances. Please keep up the good work.
John
Thank you John. Nothing more needs to be said so I'll leave it at that. I truly appreciate the support and the time you took to write.
Feb 18, 2015 16:34:14
Good luck on your college basketball pick tonight. Unfortunately, your handicap is on false premises. Syracuse is not going to the NCAA tournament this year by choice.
Russell
It's not entirely on false premises Russell. I had plenty of other reasons for picking the Orange, I just forgot about their ineligibility. The play still stands.
Feb 18, 2015 09:46:00
Hey Sherwood, Nice work on the NHL, you're having a great season! I was wondering which of the advanced hockey stats you have found to be most predictive? I intuitively tend to emphasize 5 on 5 CF%, but I haven't yet done the work to determine how the stat correlates. As well, I was having difficulty finding a site that allowed one to set a date range for calculating advanced stats - almost all are "season to date", which makes it difficult to analyze recent performance. Recently stumbled on http://war-on-ice.com/teamtable.html which does allow date range calculations. Which sites do you prefer for stats? Thanks in advance, keep up the good work. Brent
Brent Walter
Hey Brent, Advanced stats in the NHL are simply not far enough along yet that they have included recent performances. All of the sites that have advanced stats give out the same stats so one is as good as the other. You could drive yourself a little nuts trying to figure out what works in what situations and what stat holds more relevance. I like the 5 on 5 Corsi as well. Teams are really making a big effort to stay out of the box and so PP opportunities are way down. CF% is definitely a good starting point. I also like shots for and against and shots directed at the net because the goal for every team is to get shots on net. I try not to spend too much time on advanced stats. I like situational plays, recent form and then I add or subtract advanced stats to validate the play a little more. I also keep a record of advanced stats rankings so I can see which teams are moving up and which teams are moving down. There isn't a site that I know of that gives week to week rankings but I keep a spread-sheet on it myself, which I update every Monday. It appears as though you are on the right track in determining which stats help the most in predicting upcoming performances Brent. Thanks for writing and for the kind words.
Feb 17, 2015 23:28:00
Thanks for hosting another webinar. I have caught bits of 2 but have been called away, hope to make all of this one. I get the concept......betting the dog and then going the other way if they close the gap. One of my problems is that I was betting the minimum $6 and say that was too low, not enough options when going the other way....so I increased it to $15 and max $30 for a total lose in one event, I will increase this when I get the hang of it, only put $300 in my account to start, but I see that I should have a bigger bank role. Sometimes I cash out early, or I back the other team, but sometimes I will lay the team that I went long on, seems like better odds at times, not sure if this is the right way, and sometimes I will end up with money on both sides with a profit on both outcomes, but I know that you look for the "free roll", a .nice spot to be in. I think that I am getting the hang of it, I have trouble finding the live dog in basketball, wish I had tried this during the nfl......this is getting long, but I just wanted you to know that your hard work and the sharing your knowledge is appreciated. You are a fresh breath of air in a environment of silver tongued sharpies, hucksters and the like, selling their so called "locks" and backing it up with phony betting records. Keep up the good work. Oh yea will trying laying bets on the horses.....love playing the ponies.....it's been my downfall.....hahhaha Cheers
Kooner
Kooner: Thanks for the kind words. I do try my best to help and you are definitely on the right track in regard to betting Betfair's exchange. Don't concern yourself with missing the NFL this past season. By the time it starts next year, you will have gained a ton of valuable experience and can attack it with confidence. I'm hoping to see you this Friday and would be happy to go one on one with you sometime in the future to help you gain even more confidence. I appreciate the support. BEST OF LUCK, always. Sherwood.
Feb 16, 2015 22:22:40
How much money do you receive from your sponsors each month for advertising their websites? i.e. sportsinteraction, Betfair, 5 dimes etc.
Tom
Tom, you are the second person to inquire about that this week so let me address it. I'm really not at liberty to discuss what sponsors pay but let me just say it all depends on a variety of things. It depends on how many clicks go through, how many folks sign up and the amount of exposure they get on my site. It varies from season to season for each sponsor. That said, I get advertising inquiries from sportsbooks often and I will not advertise any of them on this site until I've done some thorough research to make sure they're honest and have integrity. I have refused many in the past. Nobody will ever have a problem getting paid from any one of my sponsors.
Feb 16, 2015 18:47:53
Hi Brian. I live in the Vancouver area ; so of course get to see a lot of Canucks' games on the tube. As far as I am concerned, Eddie Lack should be their #1 goalie. However, just like the Luongo/Schneider mess of a couple of years back, I don't think lack will become #1 because his contract is about one-tenth the amount of Millers'. Also, Alex Edler is out for Vancouver. Anyway here's hoping the 'nucks pull it out for you
Brian Hayward
I agree Brian. I've always liked Lack and his style but because everything is about money, Miller will play a high majority of games.
Feb 16, 2015 15:16:14
Hey Sherwood, I have followed your site for several years and really admire the hard work you continue to put into this website while continuing to give your viewers free picks with excellent analysis put into each one. I usually only follow your NHL and NFL picks, and everyone has there ups and downs in this type of thing. There is no better way to approach the NHL than to look for value and you do a great job finding it. I was curious though if you have ever tried or looked into live betting in the NHL. It's risky, however, when a team goes down by a couple the value is seemingly ridiculously good at times. When a superior team is down by a goal entering the final period (ex. The blackhawks at home to NJ last week) you got significant value on them. I've done most of my live betting in the post season when a team went down by 2 early on ( as did a lot of teams last year) the value would climb to anywhere from +300 to +1000 depending on the calibre of the team and home or away. Just something to look at, wondering if you've ever approached this before. Has its possibilities to bring in a decent coin. Eric
Eric
Eric, live betting is an option everyone should use. You get great value and often can free roll on a lot of games if you utilize it correctly. It can definitely be used to "protect" a bet too. I always have it on and utilize it often, especially in basketball and football. You should try and join my BETFAIR webinar on live betting in the NBA this friday (details on site). Thanks for a good message Eric that also stresses value.
Feb 14, 2015 22:31:05
I've been following your picks and site for a while now - I enjoy, I appreciate and choose my picks accordingly. The write ups are superb, you obviously employ some good "writers", you don't charge fees, your win/loss record is posted. My question is: how much do you get paid by the sponsors? How much do you pay your writers? I'm not complaining for free picks, just curious how you guys get paid. Keep it going.
Sam
Feb 14, 2015 22:10:41
Value was not our friend tonight with the nhl. Until next time.
Jon
Indeed it was not Jon. Back to drawing board and onto tomorrow. Thanks for the encouraging message. Best of luck.
Feb 14, 2015 13:52:03
Hey Sherwood.. I think Dubnyk is starting in net tonight vs the Canes.... FYI
Kevin
You are right Kevin so thanks for the heads up. Still playing the Canes because of the value.
Feb 14, 2015 13:17:02
Hey Sherwood, you mention Wild have Keumper in nets but in your goalie listings you have DD confirmed starter, I have looked around and have no other info anywhere
TOM
Yes, Tom. DD is in net but our play still stands.
Feb 12, 2015 18:26:26
I showed my friend your website and told him your guys picks are pretty good, and since then hes made a little extra money, as he is a cook and doesn't make much money. He told me to tell you guys thx and keep up the good picks, he was playing proline lol i got him to stop that nonsense and we opened up an account at pinnacle. Keith says thx.
Anthony
Anthony: You did your friend two favors..first by getting him to layoff that government ripoff game and secondly showing him another alternative. I hope you guys do well. Thanks for sharing and tell "Keith" he's welcome. Best of luck friend.
Feb 12, 2015 14:54:10
I second what Gianni says - it's so nice to see someone do all this analysis and then post it up for free, no conditions and not trying to scam anyone. I am UK and I mainly bet on horses but have long looked at US sports with interest especially baseball. I'm a big White Sox fan so I would be interested on how you rate their chances for 2015. I'd love to see a webinar - for me any time on a Friday, Sat, midweek and Sunday I could manage an East coast 19:00 start, any later I'd be falling asleep after 3 hours and wouldn't benefit! Thanks again
Martin
Very cool Martin. I'm so glad you wrote in. I will definitely run another NBA webinar and I'm going to schedule it for Friday, Feb 20th at 7:00 PM EST. I'll post details on my website over the next couple of days. As for the White Sox, I like 'em this year and I'm going to try and post over/under win totals for every team this year as soon as the lines come out. I'll see if I can do 1 or 2 a day and post them in the baseball section. Thanks very much for writing.
Feb 10, 2015 20:08:49
Brian: I am surprised you are not on the wild tonite. I would think you would be on them everytime they are dogs until they prove their winning streak is over have a great night enjoying hockey
paul
Paul: Information on Minnesota's starting goaltender was scarce yesterday and I didn't want to get stuck with a bet if Kuemper was in goal. Minnesota had two key injuries the night before in Zucker and Carter and no time to practice with new lines. Those were two reasons for passing but there were a couple more as well. With the exception of ANAHEIM/Florida, all other games last night could have easily gone the other way.
Feb 10, 2015 18:12:12
Hey Sherwood, Just wanted to say thanks for all your picks on the site. I, along with many others, appreciate all the time and hard work you put in everyday. Is it possible to have one of those Betfair tutorials recorded and available to be viewed anytime? Looking forward to baseball season and hopefully some seas0n win total prop bets Cheers,
Gianni
Gianni: Unfortunately those betting tutorials are not recorded. They are 3 hours long because we go through the entire game. If you are interested in attending a webinar, let me know when the best time and date is for you and I'll try and schedule one around your schedule. We, too are looking forward to the baseball season. Thanks for the kind words.
Feb 9, 2015 12:22:16
Well Sherwood, thanks to your webinar on Betfair which I was able to attend part of, i ended up £250 profit this weekend thanks mostly to rugby matches and partly some basketball. Very grateful you would go and take your own time and put that on for no profit or anything. Was great. One question I had is - is there any strategy you have in terms of picking basketball matches to play? Thanks again
Ryan
Ryan: You are so welcome. I love getting messages from people that have utilized the strategy to make money. It really does make my day. In terms of strategy for picking certain games, what I do is look closely at games before hand and try to handicap them the same way I would any other sport. Because I'm looking for "live dogs" I'll try and pick two or three games where I really trust the dog has a chance to win. I will never exclude a game because any of them can turn out to be very profitable but my focus to start the night would be on those live dogs I picked out. Try that and PLEASE let me know how you're making out. Stay in touch Ryan. I may run another webinar soon if the interest is there. I really urge everyone to get to know this strategy because it's a cash cow. To anyone reading this: message me if you want to attend one.
Feb 9, 2015 11:49:22
Avid reader and think you do a great job covering college sports and the nhl. Although I don't normally agree with you, I take your advice frequently and it more than often pays off. However, sometimes I think you over exaggerate strength and this past weekend was one instance I just couldn't stay silent about. Do you honestly think Stanford is a final four contender? I mean, they are a solid team but I may not pick them to make the final four of the PAC-12, let alone the whole NCAA. If you really think Stanford has what it takes to matchup with the likes of Duke, Kentucky, Virginia and most likely have to beat one on a neutral floor among other wins, you are going to make a TON of money. Personally, I see them maybe as a sweet 16 team with favorable matchups.
Mike
Mike: I was merely pointing out that Stanford is a quality opponent and a potential Final Four team. Chasson Randle is a guy who on any given night can go off and absolutely light it up. He could get on a Kemba Walker-type run. They have a lock-down defender in Anthony Brown who can defend multiple positions. If they want to go zone, they can go to a big zone. Reid Travis will be back by then, which will give them another physical frontcourt player and Stefan Nastic has developed into a guy who is hard to match up with. This is a mature, invested team with some physicality and versatility defensively. BTW, you're not the only one that has suggested I overstate things sometimes so it has been duly noted and I truly appreciate the constructive message and the time you took to write it. Good luck Mike.
Feb 8, 2015 13:01:54
I agree with your assessment of the Oregon State squad. Having said that, I have had some success fading the Huskies since they lost 2 big men from their rotation. The defensive and rebounding stats you cited are not a current reflection of their team defense. I will wait for another opportunity to cash in against Oregon State. I'm with you on the ice today.
Joel
Thanks for your opinion Joel and I especially like that you sent it in BEFORE the game started. Still, I seldom mention injuries because they're factored into the line and OSU has a couple of key one's too. Here's to us cashing in the NHL! Thanks for writing in.
Feb 7, 2015 14:02:21
Hello Sherwood, Do you see any value at all in the Pittsburgh @ Vancouver game? Pinnacle has the Penguins +111 in OT. Looks like Thomas Greiss is starting, any opinions? Thank You and keep up the great work.
Norm
I look at each game carefully Norm and if I don't post a play on it then I don't have a strong opinion. I can see a little value on Pitt but there are things about the game that concern me. I don't like Greiss in net and I don't like the second game in back-to-backs after a win. I also don't like that the Canucks lost 5-1 to San Jose on Thursday and were really flat. The Canucks aren't likely to be flat tonight and this a hot ticket in Vancouver tonight, as fans there don't get to see the Pens often. Of course Pitt can win but for me it's a pass because I like other teams so much more than them tonight. Good luck whatever you choose to do and thanks for writing.
Feb 4, 2015 14:45:45
Good day Sir just wondering about your feelings on the Seattle pass at games end, although I enjoy your site for pregame info I would really like to hear more after the fact info and your feelings on game results, I also was on Seattle and can\'t stop shaking my head, I understand your busy but just a little comment would make me feel better Thanks have a great day
tgolenia
Indeed that was a tough loss but it's like so many other games where the outcome is decided by nothing but pure luck. Baseball and NHL games that are decided by one goal or run is a prime example of that luck. A sacrifice bunt that doesn't work as oppose to one that does could easily be the difference between winning and losing. A shot off the goalpost is the same thing. It's for that reason that I insist on playing value and letting the chips fall where they may. For as many games as you lose (Seattle for instance) because of good or bad luck, you should win just as many. Don't feel bad about losing the Super Bowl. The folks that bet New England got lucky and the folks that bet Seattle got unlucky. It is that way every single night in sports betting and if you play value, you are going to be on the right side many times. Sharp players need to get unlucky to lose while most need to get lucky to win and that's another reason why those bad beats seem to happen to value players more often than they should. Thanks for writing and I hope this takes the sting of losing out a little bit. Peace
Feb 4, 2015 12:06:43
Regarding your twitter comment this AM. You're correct on one count only, losing sucks but the way you've been doing!!! Unbelievable run. Don't want to name names, but you tell me of all the posters, who's done better than Sportswagers.CA? Nobody.
Mick Maguire
Thanks Mick. Almost saved the night with Carolina but they blew a 2-goal lead in final 10 minutes.
Feb 4, 2015 09:55:08
Damn, thought Carolina would pull it off. Ah well, when the going gets tough, nothing seems to go your way. I took Nashville -103 in regulation last night over the Loafs. They scared me for a bit, but pulled through. 10 Losses in a row for the Maple Laughs, what a joke of a franchise.
Chris
Leafs are actually playing better these days but have very little to show for it. That move of bringing back Bernier was pure panic by Leafs coaching staff. Glad you cashed it Chris
Feb 2, 2015 15:23:00
Actually I have been following you since the 90 and you had column in toronto sun. Randall the Handle..I think, no I`m sure you are the best and most knowledgeable person I ever see to write the sport betting advice ..i will invite you up here to North Norway for some great fishing and same awful beer, as i drank in Canada..
Andrei
LOL, thanks Andrei. Would love to come fishing and maybe one day it`ll happen. Anyway, I`m not Randall the Handle. I did some work with him for years and I was the main handicapper on his site for a couple of years when we merged. However, Randall had other commitments and could not devote the time to his site that is required so I came back to my original home of Sportswagers. Randall and I still collaborate from time to time but in no way is he associated with this site, nor am I associated with his. Anyway, I hope this clears this up for you. I appreciate the support and kind words. Next time you`re here, let me know and we`ll have a good òl Canadian beer together!
Jan 31, 2015 10:09:51
Brian, I've been following your picks for six months now and adding a few of my own when looking for value. I'm so thankful for the betting strategies you have taught me, which has resulted in me doubling my bankroll. Let me take you out for a beer sometime if you're down for it. I just feel that you deserve something for all the free advice and picks you have given people. Cheers buddy, keep it up.
RV
Thank you RV. I always like hearing that my readers are doing well. I put my heart and soul into my work and I'm so glad that it pays off for myself and others. I am up for a beer anytime and would also appreciate some retweets from anyone so inclined to do so. Keep in touch and thanks for writing.
Jan 29, 2015 18:19:59
Great call on Georgia Tech! They were 10 point underdogs, lead wire-to-wire, and won outright without much doubt....I agree with your take on the 'Touts'....they are aggressive, arrogant and outrageous....to pay for picks, they would have to be 100% correct.....and nobody can do that......in fact, that is why it is so fun! Keep up the great work!
Jeff
Thank you Jeff.
Jan 29, 2015 14:09:03
I'm going to apply some of what I've learned from you and wager on LA Tech (-8.5) at home v. WKU, who are unbeaten in Conference play. The line, which looks high, is telling us to go with LA Tech, correct?
Joel
Bravo Joel. I hope you played it, as this was keen find for you. Great job Joel. Keep looking for games that give you an edge.
Jan 29, 2015 11:51:49
Yes Sherwood, you are correct picks should be given for free, and you do a great job with your write ups, and picks. It is not easy to win in this game like many other things in life, but your opinion is usually correct, but like many games a lot of things happen to change the outcome. Keep up the good work. Thx Tony
Tony P
You're welcome Tony and thanks for writing.
Jan 28, 2015 23:13:48
You really should be charging for this information. You are making a lot of people some good money right now. Thank you again!
Joel
You're welcome Joel. My promise is that this site is and always will be free. Unlike other "services", I wager on every game I post and I don't believe in charging for picks. Tout services are scam services and there are no exceptions. If they knew more than you, they would be betting the games themselves and not looking for someone's credit card number. My point is "NEVER PAY FOR PICKS! Thanks for writing Joel.
Jan 27, 2015 16:09:20
Brian, what do you think about the Jets over the Pens tonight? Pavelec vs Greiss, Pens are without Crosby and Malkin tonight. Jets have a solid 14-5-5 record on the road and are playing great hockey in the West. -107 price tag OT included in on Pinnacle.
Chris
Chris: if it's not on my slate, I have no interest. I look at each game carefully and choose what I trust to be the best value. The oddsmakers and everyone else knows who's playing and who's not so there isn't any edge or value in playing the Jets on the road as a favorite in Pittsburgh. Whatever you do, I wish you the best of luck
Jan 27, 2015 02:35:23
My silent thanks as well . Following you every day and year (s) ..Appreciate your time and efforts .. Take Care .
Mr. W. Baxter
You're very welcome Mr. B.
Jan 26, 2015 21:19:33
Nice 2 for 2 tonight on the NCAA Basketball. Keep up the good work. With ya through the wins and the losses bud!
RV
Thanks RV, I appreciate the support and the time you took to write.
Jan 24, 2015 14:16:09
Sherwood! Great research and info on many games as always! Thanks for all of your hard work and number crunching. You have been a wonderful guide to a very profitable month of January thus far. Soooooo.... Xavier -12: I played this on your recommendation and was cursing your name at half time when Xavier was down 8 points... But as per usual, you were 100% with pointing out the spreads that don't make much sense on paper, but they are what they are for a reason. What a second half by the Muskies! Winning by 13 points and covering in EXTREMELY dramatic fashion! Thanks again, BTW the Missisauga ice dogs are not a junior hockey team. You have Niagara Ice Dogs and Mississauga Steelbacks in the ever revolving door of team name changes in the CHL. ( sorry for the douchey correction)
Dingle
You're welcome Dingle. You weren't the first to point out the non-existence of Mississauga Ice Dogs, LOL. Great to hear you had a good January and hopefully it'll continue throughout the year. Thanks for taking the time to write.
Jan 19, 2015 17:30:32
Brian: cant wait for your super bowl pick. Your analysis and pick last year was nothing short of genius. (By the way, do you make any prop recomendations?) Keep up the great work
paul
Really? it was that good? Thanks man. Do you still have it cause if you do, I would sure like to read it again or even post it again for folks to read. Sometimes I wish I kept my write-ups. In any case, thanks so much and I'll be posting my Super Bowl pick sometime over the next week. I usually don't recommend playing the "exotics" but this year I will look closer and if I see some flaw or big edge somewhere, I will definitely release it. Peace.
Jan 19, 2015 13:42:42
Hi Sherwood. Would you say sports betting is a great part time Job? It certainly beats out any stock or mutual fund. Even with sports betting fluctuations you can still double your bankroll if you play smart and look for value. I know full time it would be more difficult, because there is no guaranteed income every month, and the fluctuations can be nuts. I think for many people who work full time, this is a great secondary source of income.
Chris
It's like anything else Chris. If you put the time and hard work into it, you can certainly supplement your income. However, in order to succeed you need an abundance of discipline and without it, it is not possible to succeed. If you play value and stick with it and if you don't "chase losses" you can do very well. Best of luck Chris and I may write a blog about that very topic between now and the Super Bowl. In the meantime, read my blog on "Playing Money Line Dogs" and it should also help you.
Jan 17, 2015 14:10:03
I like the hockey picks tonight. Just wondering what your thoughts are on Florida to win in regulation against that sieve Victor Fasth and the warming Avalanche and red-hot Semyon Varlamov at +166? If you get a chance to reply prior to puck drop, I'd really appreciate it. Thanks!
Joel
If I were to bet that game Joel, my bet would still be Edmonton because that is where the value is. I'm not in favor with spotting -½ with offensively challenged teams unless the situation is very favorable. I like the way the Oilers are playing lately and it still would not surprise me if they won tonight even with Fasth in goal. My bet would be Edmonton or pass. Colorado may have some value but I'm not crazy about them either. When Iginla and Tanguay are your leading producers, you have problems and TB is so superior to them. You called the Avs warming up but frankly, I don't see any signs of that at all, as they just lost to Washington and Carolina before getting by the Panthers. Best of luck Joel
Jan 16, 2015 12:17:58
Hi Sherwood, Thank you for your daily picks, I have enjoyed reading your analysis of every sport for a few years now, and I just wanted to say thanks. I've missed out on your webinars about live betting the nfl on betfair, and with the big game coming I want to be ready. I hope you'll run a few more webinars, my newborn takes a lot of my time. Does it matter if you do live betting on an iPhone vs a laptop? Best of luck this year, I'll be shadowing your bets for as long as you post. Cheers, Dave
Dave
You're welcome Dave. I will be running another Webinar on Sunday January 25, the week before the Super Bowl. Hopefully, you'll be able to join us for that one and you can find details just above. You can do live betting on any device including iPhones. Thanks for writing Dave.
Jan 16, 2015 11:00:45
Yes, great night....5 for 5 including UAB.....incredible....I love it when your picks match mine.....I was not convinced with Minnesota, but you talked me into it, and they win 7-0!! Btw, thanks for the NBA/Betfair seminar....I did well on Houston/OKC last night....I bet this 'system' will work in baseball too! Keep up the great work!!!
Jeff
Thanks Jeff and I'm thrilled that you did well on the NBA using my strategies on BETFAIR. I used it a bit for baseball last year, especially in the playoffs and it does work well. It especially works well in the later innings when you have a one run lead in the eighth or ninth and want to take away your risk. For instance, let's say you have TEAM A at +120 for $100 and they have a one-run lead going to the eighth. You can then buy TEAM B at 6-1 or so for $20 to take away your entire risk and free roll for $80. I will be paying a lot more attention this season to baseball on Betfair and may hold a Webinar on that in April or May. Best of luck and let me know how you are doing with Betfair.
Jan 16, 2015 10:38:56
Hey Sherwood great picks last night! I also added MIN/BUF in the over and Minnesota got it done
Chris
Sweet. Glad you cashed Chris.
Jan 16, 2015 07:18:16
HUGE night Sherwood!!! Played all four NHL games and parlayed them also!!! Big time thanks for boosting my Betfair account!!! Keep up the great work!!!
John
Thanks John. Those nights are rare but they sure are nice when they happen. Glad you were able to cash.
Jan 15, 2015 09:45:53
Thought I would share this as food for thought for NHL bettors. http://www.sportingcharts.com/articles/nhl/how-often-is-overtime-needed-in-the-nhl.aspx Approximately 25% of NHL games went into OT last year, just be aware when betting in regulation wins. Cheers
Chris
Thanks for sharing Chris
Jan 14, 2015 19:02:34
Hi Brian. I tailed you on that Minn/Pitts ov 5' +110. Also did Pitts -1'+135. Great stuff.
Brian Hayward
Jan 13, 2015 15:37:54
Sherwood, I swear it's as if you see the games before they happen. It's uncanny how accurate your analysis is in a high percentage of these are games and even when you lose, 90% of the time you have the team that played better but lost. I was so tempted to play TB over Philadelphia in hockey last night but I kept hearing your words about poor goaltenders and with Nabby in net for TB I decided to lay off. Instead I bet Ohio State on the ML and cashed it. Scary how accurate your analysis of that game was and it happens all the time. Thanks a million Sherwood for making me a better gambler and for the free picks every day.
Mark W
Thanks very much Mark. Your message made my day. I'm happy to be of service and wish you and everyone else all the luck in the world. Stay in touch.
Jan 13, 2015 13:15:46
Great pick with Ohio state money line last night. Keep up the great work!
Stewart
Thanks Stewart. I appreciate the time you took to write.
Jan 11, 2015 00:53:24
Brian : Thanks for the great Sat night NHL . 3 of 4 leads to more . My system of single bets and only 2 team parlays is paying nice over the long haul . Use your advice of looking for value ..Your Silent Follower (daily and yearly (s) ). Take Care
Mr. W. Baxter
Thanks Mr. B. Good to know that you are cashing in and once again I thank you for taking the time to write.
Jan 10, 2015 17:01:09
Hey Sherwood, what would you say is the best sport to bet on in terms of best results over the past few years? From what I have noticed it seems to be the baseball money line/handicap. I still bet on NFL/NHL/NCAA, but it seems like MLB is where the real action/value is. What's your opinion on this? Thanks, and keep up the fantastic work.
Chris
Chris, I've always preferred money line sports like baseball and hockey because of the value attached to those ML dogs. From a betting standpoint, the refs and umpires impact those two sports much less than they do in football and basketball and that's another reason we prefer baseball and hockey. You are dead on in that regard.
Jan 10, 2015 13:01:50
Amazing play on the Oilers over the Blackhawks last night!! Even though the situation was ripe for an upset, it's still a real tough call to take the Oilers over anyone the way they always find ways to lose. That shows you're a pro! When's the next NBA Webinar?
Derek
Thanks Derek. It is sometimes tough to pull the trigger but value is value and must be played when we see an overlay in a very favorable situation. The next NBA Webinar will be held this coming Wednesday, January 14 and I'll post the link on the website. Thanks for writing.
Jan 9, 2015 22:20:38
Calf injury is nothing? Sherwood, it is everything for the athlete. Beware. If this man is hobbled he will have major problems. Rodgers will have problems pivoting and planting, and could be out very easily. This game will be close with the trenches deciding it, Cowboys win it late
TOM
Tom, props to you for sending this prediction before the game begins. I'm saying that the media blows everything out of proportion and suggesting the injury isn't as bad as the media makes it out to be. I'm also suggesting the 'Boys are up against it here because the refs will overcompensate for last week's debacle and as mentioned in the write-up, that's our main reason for choosing Green Bay. Best of luck in all other games and thanks for writing.
Jan 7, 2015 00:10:22
Sherwood, Had first big Betfair win tonight, scooped $350 on the Pistons on a $45 initial bet. I could've played it even better, but hindsight is always 20/20. Can't wait to keep rolling now that I'm comfortable with the system. If anyone hasn't done the seminar and opened a Betfair account yet, you need to. Sherwood puts a lot of time and effort into it because he wants everyone else to win with him! Thanks again
Shane
You're welcome Shane. Glad to hear you had a nice win on a small investment and that's one of the key's. Bet small, win big and don't chase games. Stick with it and utilize it for football too. Anyway, thanks for letting me know and stay in touch and let me know how your're doing.
Jan 5, 2015 12:43:42
Sherwood, Thank you for your picks. I appreciate the effort, the statistics and intelligence you bring to your selections. You are one of a kind in this business. Moreover you are the only one who keeps a record of wins/losses. Your picks are credible. Thank You
Henry Ropertz
You are quite welcome Henry and thanks so much for the kind words. I appreciate the time you took to write and for the acknowledgement. You made my day.
Jan 2, 2015 01:28:56
Just was going over your record wanted to let you know you listed a win as only +0.50 when it should be +2.50. Dec 17, 2014 #743 Portland +5½ UNLV -106 2.59 W +0.50
Shane
I wish it were true Shane but if you read the writeup, I indeed risked 2.59 units on that game but it was broken down with 1½ units on Portland plus the points and 1 unit on Portland on the money line. They lost by 2 points so the net profit was 0.5 units. Thanks anyway. Incidentally, in the 10 plus years I have been doing this site, you are the first to point out a mistake that you believed was in my favor. When I post a "W" that was a loser, I get 10 emails every time about it.
Jan 2, 2015 01:21:41
Brian : Great call in your NCAA FB picks 4 of 5 . Your Silent Follower. Will be every day in 2015 . Take Care .
Mr. W. Baxter
It was a nice way to start the year Mr. B. Thanks very much for the acknowledgement and support. Entertaining games too.
Jan 1, 2015 16:55:31
Don't know if you drew it up that way but Michigan State win is an all time classic!
Mike
Definitely a little lucky but like I always say, luck evens out over time and if you play value and stick to it, good things will happen.
Jan 1, 2015 16:43:54
Thank you kind sir for serving up Sparty this afternoon. I was on the edge of my seat the entire game, and even at the lowest point knew they had a shot because we were on the right side. Gutsy call, but by now I know to trust your judgement. Happy New Year!
Joel
I actually blame Baylor coaches for that loss. Here's what I tweeted out when Baylor scored to make it 41-20: "Not sure that was smart of Baylor to rub salt in the wound. Scoring is ok but to an offensive guard is rubbing salt. #LongWayToGo. You let sleeping dogs lie and Baylor woke up a sleeping giant with that play. Happy New Year to you too Joel and thanks for the kind words and support.
Dec 29, 2014 20:01:43
Good to see you catch fire, keep it going, lol, we all will join the ride. In any case thank you for all your write ups in 2014. Agree or Disagree I enjoy reading them and always find insight and respect your opinion. All the best and Happy New Year
TOM
Thanks Tom. It was indeed a great time to get hot. Unfortunately the hot-streak ended last night so we'll try and get right back on the horse tonight. Thanks for the kind words and have a Happy New Year too.
Dec 29, 2014 16:35:22
Brian, would you recommend in some instances to lay juice? I saw you have philly over arizona today -110 in OT. I also picked Tampa over Toronto tonight -115 in regulation. I normally don't like to lay juice, and sure the Leafs could upset the Bolts, but it doesn't seem like a bad price tag. Tampa is a top team in the East and the Leafs are giving up goals left right and Centre, not to mention Reimer is starting again after playing last night in the loss to Florida.
Chris
Nothing wrong with laying juice Chris as long as you feel there is good value there and while the game was too damn close for comfort TB absolutely dominated and should have won by 5 goals, not one.
Dec 28, 2014 12:07:05
Brian, great picks on Saturday in NHL, NCAA. We had a bit of bad luck in December but as most of us know, value wins in the long run, and this is not a race, its a marathon. Your in depth analysis on all games is incredible, and I truly thank you for posting and sharing them with us. Happy holidays to you and your loved ones, and have a great 2015!
Chris
You're welcome Chris and thank you for taking the time to write. Of the all the years that I've been doing this in, 2014 was the most challenging because we were stuck about 65 units at one point just before the start of the baseball season. Best wishes to you and yours too Chris. All the best.
Dec 28, 2014 00:46:02
Brian : A BIG thanks for your perfect Sat picks 6-0. I hit them reasonable and saved enough $ , to bet for the following week . Where are all these nay sayers now? Again keep up the GREAT work . Best Regards : Your Silent Follower.
Mr. W. Baxter
Thanks Mr. B. I'm just happy to rebound from that awful start to the Bowl season last week. It was indeed a pretty sweet day and I'm glad you were able to cash in. Thanks for writing.
Dec 27, 2014 11:19:45
Va tech needed OT to beat Wake Forest a month ago by a score of 6-3. I agree that the Bearcats come from a weak conference, but I can't see that Hokies offence winning a bowl game. We'll find out! Love this time of year!
Scott
Dec 27, 2014 10:59:29
Illinois game was maddening, but that's college football, as always love the right ups and I will be interested in your take on Oregon/Florida State in a week. +9.5 even +10 FSU seems incredible as if their are ulterior forces about to land on FSU from the outside world (NFL, Social engineers , good vs evil ,Marcus v Jameus etc)
Mike
LOL. Should be interesting Mike.
Dec 24, 2014 20:57:43
Outstanding work today. A well deserved win with CMU following a series of bad beats. Looking forward to riding your coattails the rest of the bowl season. Cheers!
Joel
Thanks Joel.
Dec 22, 2014 18:29:58
We deserved a better fate today. BYU was clearly the better team. Mendenhall blew a critical timeout freezing the kicker for a PAT and there were several bad snaps which stalled drives. Questionable officiating didn't help either. Just a bad beat all around.
Joel
Absolutely true Joel. Memphis also hit a 55-yard FG in OT to tie it. I think that's the play you're referring to when the Memphis kicker shanked it to the left but got another try because Mendenhall called that time out. Had he not, game would have ended there. Also, the tying TD in OT was caught by a receiver that wasn't even the target. He was cutting across the end zone and grabbed it between 5 defenders. There was also two plays on the final drive where Memphis QB threw it on a prayer and both were caught. It was really a bizarre series of events that could be played over and over 100 times and we'd win it 100 times. However, at the end of the day, it's still a loss and that's really all that matters, bad beat or not. Brutal stuff but thank you SO MUCH for the moral support. Sometimes it's needed.
Dec 22, 2014 13:14:19
Dear Brian : Thanks for a great year : Best Wishes to you and yours : Your Silent Follower .
Mr. W. Baxter
Thanks very much Mr. B. Best of wishes to you and yours as well and thanks for all the support over the years.
Dec 22, 2014 09:52:44
Brian, Simply amazing and lots of fun. Thank you very much for sharing your 'secret" with us. I looked at Betfair a while ago and deemed it too complex but after 3 sessions, the beast is not that intimidating. Quite contrary. I was a bit skeptical initially and now what I need is practice. Once again thanks.
Andy
You're welcome Andy and thanks for taking the time to write. I enjoy doing the Webinar's and will continue to run them to try and educate those wanting to try it out. It is by far the best wagering options for football and basketball and I'm happy to hear that you and others are utilizing it and trying to master it. Happy Holidays and hope to hear from you again soon or see you in upcoming Webinars.
Dec 21, 2014 12:45:18
I want to take Arizona too, but I'm not sure Lindley will muster more than 6-8 first downs the entire game. We'll see.....could be a 19-13 type of game with backdoor cover written all over it.
Magus
Arizona's defense held strong in first half but that late 80-yard TD seemed to have broke their spirit.
Dec 21, 2014 10:48:26
Your Sat pick #575 Eastern Michigan in NCAABB was impresssive. On SIA they were getting 4 points and the moneyline was +165. I see that you are cheating yourself by giving such a low line. I will keep betting on them and against UCLA. Keep up the great plays. I would appreciate those sure NBA plays if you see one.
Trent
Thanks Trent. I bet EMU early and always post the game at the price I bet it at. Had I anticipated Missouri St. money, I would have waited. As for the NBA, I always on the lookout but will only post games I see tremendous value because I mostly play it on BETFAIR's betting exchange.
Dec 20, 2014 20:59:54
Not the start we were hoping for to the bowl season. Fortunately, there are plenty of games left to get it back. Looking forward to the next round of selections. Happy holidays!
Joel
Thank you Joel. Frustrating start indeed but there are plenty of games and opportunities so we'll try and shake it off and start again. Thanks for writing friend and happy Holidays to you too.
Dec 19, 2014 22:09:09
How is your basketball going so far this year on Betfair in relation to last season?
Jon
It's good Jon. It's highly profitable and the more time I put into it, the more money I make. I wish I could play it every day but I play it only on Monday's, Wed's, and Friday's for NBA and Sunday for NFL. Tues, Thurs and Sat I relax and watch mostly NHL and college.
Dec 9, 2014 23:06:12
Ugh, that Islanders collapse made me sick.
Chris
Wasn`t pretty Chris, but when you are going bad, everything seems to go against you.
Dec 9, 2014 22:38:06
Tough way to end the year. Hope others arent wagering their Christmas money.
Steve
Yes indeed it`s been a bad run but they inevitably happen to everyone and the timing for it is not great. That said, we'll continue to look for value and play it and things will turn around soon enough.
Dec 9, 2014 12:14:35
Huge huge fan of the site. The amount of knowledge and insight you pass along is insane. I've learned so much just by reading your write ups, blogs and advice. Anyone who isn't grateful for free picks with full analysis is truly dumb. What you offer isn't found anywhere. Everything has a price when it comes to selections and as you've documented that price is usually a scam (touts). Just the leg work of analysis, team and player info, stats, injuries, etc that you cobble together and have to be on top of daily for plays across several leagues and sports I can imagine is MORE work than a full time job. Credit to you that you are willing to share it with anyone period. Anyone posting a negative comment under any circumstances shouldn't receive a reply or even make it to your comments section. That has nothing to do with not being objective but more about someone not deserving a reply for being an ass. Consider that as a reader you are receiving valuable information for free, the leg work and analysis is put on a silver platter. If you the reader followed through with a bet that just happened not to go your way that is YOUR decision, not the author's. Keep up the great work. Thanks again
Frank
Thanks so much for the kind words and acknowledgment of the work and time I put into this site Frank. It means more to me than you know and I truly appreciate the time you took to write.
Dec 7, 2014 13:43:35
Is the Saints D coordinator the worst in history?
Magus
I really don't get how how the Saints can lose like that to THAT team. Incredible. Not covering is one thing but who saw that coming?
Dec 6, 2014 18:45:19
Do you ever parlay your wagers on days where you wager on multiple games? If yes, are there particular strategies you employ in setting up your parlays?
Joel
Joel: I do parlay but I only parlay money lines because when you parlay ML teams, you actually get the true value. For instance, a 2-teamer on the point spread pays 2.6-1 and but if you play two ML dogs at say +110 you would get the true value of 3.41-1. The same goes for 3-teamers, etc. The actual true odds of hitting a 2-teamer is 3.1-1 but the books only pay 2.6-1 so you are not getting the TRUE value on those traditional point-spread parlays. In other words, over time you will lose money betting point-spread parlays and that's an absolute. Think of it like a roulette wheel. The house pays 35-1 on single numbers but there are 36 numbers + 0 and 00 for a total of 39 numbers on a standard roulette wheel. If the house is paying 35-1 and the TRUE odds are 39-1, over time that house edge comes into play and becomes impossible to beat. The same theory must be applied to standard parlays using the point spread. The recommendation therefore is to play money line parlays only because it is the only possible way of winning OVER TIME. I will get into this a little more during the baseball season next year when I play parlays all the time and show you how I personally set it up or play them. Thanks for a great question Joel.
Dec 6, 2014 15:28:37
7-2 to start off the year in college basketball! Your write ups have been spot on Sherwood. Keep it up brother! I can't thank you enough. Looking forward to your college bowl game picks. You always seem to sniff out the pretenders and the true contenders.
Bowen
Thanks for the kind words Bowen. We're looking forward to the college Bowl season too. Hopefully it'll be profitable.
Dec 2, 2014 22:05:58
Hi Sherwood, As sports bettors, we go through winning months, losing months, and break even months. What was your worst sports betting month or consecutive months? Did it seem like it would never end in terms of losing or getting bad beats, and how did you cope with it? Thanks!
Chris
Excellent post Chris. When you are gambling, losing streaks are inevitable and there's not much you can do except wait it out. You should also cut down on the number of plays and/or cut down on units wagered. So many of these games come down to nothing but pure luck, which is why I preach finding value and letting the chips fall where they may. I also may take a break in one sport or another for a day or two or even a complete day off. You can also find your troubled sports, (do you ALWAYS lose in the NBA, NHL, NFL) and eliminate betting tat sport altogether or make very few plays over the course of a season. Most importantly Chris, you can't let it affect your disposition. My partner, Jennifer, my kids or my friends would never be able to tell if I was on a run of 10-0 or 0-10. I am exactly the same person every day. You have to remain even keeled and if you are finding that the results affect you to the point that your personality changes depending on the outcome of games, I'm suggesting you are wagering too much money. I can't pinpoint what my worst month was but I've had horrible losing streaks that felt like they would never end. Earlier this year, on this site last February and March, I put myself in a huge hole and was stuck as much as 60 units and it's frustrating as hell. You just have to wait it out and that's all there is to it. Thanks for taking the time to write Chris and if you are going through one of those "bad runs" hang in there. It'll turn around soon.
Dec 2, 2014 19:02:57
Nice to see an NBA write-up. Although it is actually the Bucks that play the Heat on Friday after playing Dallas tomorrow.
Ben
Thanks Ben, my bad. Cavs play at MSG on Thursday.
Nov 29, 2014 20:10:35
Hi Sherwood, I was looking at betfair.com and saw the exchange section they have. Do you know how that works? If so could you please explain it. Thank you.
Jim
Well Jim, I'm assuming your not pulling my leg with that question, as I have been running Webinars every Wednesday on that exact subject. I have been using the exchange for three years and there is more information on the Webinars here, which are free to join and everyone is welcome: http://www.sportswagers.ca/nba/
Nov 29, 2014 19:12:41
Excellent work on the gridiron this afternoon. Can't wait to cash in on your bowl selections next month!
Joel
Thanks Joel. We're looking forward to the Bowl games also.
Nov 29, 2014 17:25:57
Loving the over for the grey cup and the New England/Green Bay game, any thoughts?
TOM
I'm not big on totals TOM because I don't do well on them so I'm not sure my opinion offers any value. Indeed they both look good but personally I'm not betting either total so I have no opinion. Best of luck with your picks though.
Nov 29, 2014 11:45:38
Nice run with college hoops Sherwood. Keep em coming ! Lol
Al
Nov 25, 2014 21:03:44
I read a few web pages daily regarding sports betting tips but I must say yours is by far the best. It is the first one I read everyday and I have followed it for years and felt it was time to write in since I have cashed a few large wagers based on your advice. The advice you gave on the Houston - Harvard CBB game was genius and after I read your advice I did some further investigation into both teams and placed the largest wager I have ever made (my 2014 bank roll allowed for it) I just want to thank you for the advice that paid for another year of university for my daughter. Keep up the awesome work!!!
Larry
Thanks so much for taking the time to write and to send such a positive message Larry. You made my day and it's letters like yours that keep me motivated to provide the best information that I can. Stay in touch and thanks again.
Nov 23, 2014 16:04:36
There has been one worse team the last few weeks then the chargers and it's the giants! Don't chase your losses. Stay away!!
Name
Nov 19, 2014 12:50:00
Montreal is +4 at Bookmaker
Mick Maguire
Even better, as long as the juice isn't -120 or more.
Nov 13, 2014 13:30:34
I have been surprised about the lack of comment in the media about the massive impact that officials now have on the NFL (all other sports are following) , so I was interested in yours this morning re the BUF/MIAMI game. The Networks covering College and NFL games now have instant reviews by ex-officials of the officials calls. It was interesting also at one of the latest Steeler games the media commenting on the number of empty seats at one of the most solid places for NFL football. Well it's one thing to watch in the comfort of your own home with fridge, washroom, remote close at hand and drunks not close at hand and another to be at the game for what is now close to 3 and a half hours. It is impossible to get into the flow of the game at a stadium because there simply isn't any with the amount of dead time. I check in on your site a couple times a day and right or wrong always enjoy your analysis of the various sports. For what it's worth BUF +51/2!!
Mike
Thanks Mike for a great letter and for your support. You hit the nail right on the head. Good luck with the Bills.
Nov 10, 2014 10:50:25
Great play on the Oilers. I was at the game and they were loose, confident and controlled the tempo most of the game. The Rangers were wound up tight and not able to skate with them much of the time. It took the Rangers 9 minutes to get a SOG in the 3rd when they were down a goal. I really hope they keep over valuing this mediocre squad.
Magus
That's very cool Magus. Thanks for the report, live from MSG and if you go again and notice something worth sharing, please do.
Nov 9, 2014 00:46:50
Bad beats happen and always will as well as close wins ex the oilers scoring w three min left and western Kentucky winning by 8. Thank god for the baseball season is all I can say. It all goes to the books the more you play that's gambling 101.
Steve
W. Kentucky was up 27-14 and was never in jeopardy of not covering so I wouldn't exactly call that lucky. Edmonton was the right play, as they outshot BUF by a wide margin (48 shots). Still, luck does even out over time and that's why I always say to play value and let the chips fall where they may. Best of luck Steve.
Nov 8, 2014 22:16:11
Take it from a long time Sabres fan. The advanced stats that suggest the Wild might be an elite team are trumped by the fact they depend on Vanek and Pominville to play in their top 6. Those guys aren't winners.
Joel
Duly noted Joel.
Nov 8, 2014 17:21:37
Hi Sherwood, I've noticed many NHL games are going to O/T this year, which is why I am reluctant to go for the regulation games you suggest. I usually take the money line dogs with OT included even if it's +110 vs +190. That safety net of OT is needed in my opinion as we are seeing more and more games go into overtime. What's your view on this? Also, do you know of any stats for last season/this season of the % of games that go into OT in the NHL? Thanks.
Chris
Chris, about 20% of all games go into OT and that's been consistent for years. There is nothing wrong with playing OT included and I'm going to do some math in regards to betting both OT included and regulation only and I'll post my findings.
Nov 6, 2014 21:36:27
The Wild may have to give up 8 or fewer shots to win a game of late.
Magus
Just brutal. When you put together a team, you had better start with good goaltending cause you can't win without it.
Nov 4, 2014 23:00:05
Hey Sherwood, not one to write much but I appreciate all the work you put in and not a day goes by without me checking out your website and most of the time multiple times a day. I'm extremely disappointed that because of work I'll be missing your webinar on Betfair live wagering once again. I know I'm not the first one to ask but it would be just awesome if somehow, someway you would be able to put it in You tube or record it for us to have access at a different hour of the day. Thanks in advance for all the hours you put in.
Al
Thanks Al for taking the time to write. Several people have asked if I could record it and post it and I'm going to do my best to try and do that. I'm sure it's possible and I'll see if I can do that tonight. Thanks for the kind words and for acknowledging the work I put into this. Will keep you posted.
Nov 4, 2014 13:54:42
I love your reply to the query about whether or not you play Sport Select game pools. Typical big bro' meddling asshole government gouge. It has been a long time since I have perused one of their rip off lists, and correct me if I am wrong, but I don't think they yet offer single game wagering. All the best Brian.
Brian Hayward
Thanks Brian and you are correct, no single games and if and when they do, they will not have 1 favorite and 1 dog, they'll have 2 favorites in a lot of games, like Toronto 1.70 vs Arizona 1.70. When the government is the house, you have no shot.
Nov 3, 2014 11:29:36
What a fantastic day on Sunday! Any and all readers should be extremely pleased. Thanks for sharing the results of all your hard work.
Ralph
Thanks Ralph.
Nov 2, 2014 12:14:21
Hi Sherwood, I just had a quick question about cashing in winnings from Sportsbooks. I recently watched the movie Wolf of Wall Street and there was an interesting line by Matthew McConaughey about stock brokers not letting the investors cash out but keep their investment in a new stock as this is how they keep earning commission. You can use the "fugazi" ideology to sports wagering as wins and losses are just numbers until the funds end up back in your bank account. My question is: is there a strategy you use to cash out your earnings and actually enjoy them? Once a month? Once a year? When your units hit a certain level? Thanks, Brian
Brian
Great point and question Brian. I cash out once a month if I'm in the black in all my sportsbooks and I use Pinnacle, 5Dimes, BET365, Betfair and SIA. I always leave my my original issue in the sportsbooks, plus 10% of my earnings. For instance, I start with 1000.00 and make 400.00 in a month, I'll take out 360.00 and leave 1040.00 in my account. That allows me to maintain a workable balance. If I lose, 400.00 I will replace it at the end of the month to bring my balance back to 1000.000. There is no real "standard" for how to manage your money Brian and this is just how I do it. Hope this helps and thanks for writing.
Nov 1, 2014 23:19:30
Sport select game POOLS, is causing quite a stir, paying ten thousand to two hundred thousand, picking straight up and being able to box games, do you play and what are your feelings on this lottery game?
TOM
Tom, I don't play it and I'll never play because the Ontario Lottery Corp holds 50% of the take in these pools. In other words, if $2,000.000 is wagered, they hold $1,000.000 and pay out 1 million. They are stealing money and you have to pick every game correct to win. I don't support them and I never will. They're nothing but a bunch of greedy bastards. They should hold about 10% and then I would play it but no F**KING way am I playing into it when they're holding 50% of the take. That's a license to steal. That said, if you want to play a ticket for 10 or 20 bucks to win a big prize, go ahead but if you made a ML parlay for the same amount at a traditional book, you would probably win more anyway. Best of luck.
Oct 27, 2014 21:45:12
Tough loss tonight. Adding Thomas Vanish will not help the Wild shed their reputation as a team that wilts in the spotlight. They have a talented roster, but are paper tigers until they prove otherwise. Proceed with caution. I do agree with your strategy of fading the Rangers and will continue to pursue that angle.
Joel
Not sure I agree with that Joel. They have not been in the spotlight enough to "wilt" because they have never been considered true contenders like a San Jose or a Vancouver team from a a few years ago. I don't see them being paper tigers at all. Last night was just one of those very bizarre games that happen a handful of times a year. You aren't likely to see Minnesota blow a three-goal, 3rd period lead again this year or even any 3-goal lead again. In any case, Minnesota is still very high on our radar and we'll continue to play them.
Oct 27, 2014 18:06:19
The majority of your selections are 2 units. What criteria do you use when you increase a pick to 3 units. Thanks Jon
Jon
Jon: My #1 criteria is value. When I see something that has tremendous value, like the Wild last night, we'll step in for 3 units.
Oct 25, 2014 23:59:50
Brian, couple of questions: any chance you could put yourr nba tutorial on you tube or something like that for the technologically challenged of us and second, sid you say that your offshore sponsers would accept and send payments through western union? Keep up the great work.
Paul
Paul: I'll attempt to record it and post it on You Tube. Not sure if it will work. When you say technically challenged, do you mean, you don't have Skype or you don't know how to use it? Because if that is the case, all you have to do is turn your Skype on if you have it and if you don't, you can download, install and use it for free. There is really nothing technical you need to know about the way I'm presenting the tutorial. Just log on to Skype, watch and listen. I hope you can make it Paul and if you can't, again, I'll try my best to record it and post it on You Tube. In regards to Western Union: I'm pretty sure it's an option for all sportsbooks but when you log on to any one of their sites, look up the payment and withdrawal options and it's very clear as to what their methods of payments and withdrawals are. Best of luck Paul.
Oct 25, 2014 11:14:07
WSU has a good chance against Arizona but the Wildcats actually beat Oregon by 7 this year while they were on the road!
Scott
LOL, that's true Scott. Thanks for the heads up. My bad.
Oct 25, 2014 01:32:14
Nice NHL run partner! 5-0 last 5 picks if I'm not mistaken. I've been silently following for a couple years now. Ive read books and other websites but have learned way more from reading your writeups than all of them combined! At first i used your knowledge to make myself seem smart to my friends haha but now I'm directing people to your site all the time giving u the credit u deserve! Great baseball season too btw! Can't wait for next one. Keep it up you're the man
Andrew
Thanks for taking the time to write Andrew. I appreciate the kind words and support. It`s messages like yours that keep me very motivated and focused. It also made my day.
Oct 20, 2014 18:59:11
Hey Sherwood, cool idea about the online tutorial via Skype on Betfair for live NBA betting.....I am looking forward to it.....I hope I can make it....keep up the great work, and insightful picks.....I read them every day!
Jeff
Thanks Jeff. I hope you can make it too. It's really a great way to wager as opposed to the traditional way. It's something worth learning for novices and experienced bettors.
Oct 16, 2014 11:24:27
Sherwood, I was wondering with what you thought betting -1 OT included in NHL on heavy favourites. I did this with the Sharks at home on the weekend vs the Kaneless Jets. My concern is anyone can beat anyone in the NHL on any given night, with that handicap I at least know if it goes to OT I have a shot to get my principal back if the Sharks win. If they beat the Jets by 2+ (which is the expectation) I win without laying down -180 type juice.
Chris
Chris: It's an option for sure, however, over the long run, it's likely going to be a losing proposition. If the win expectation is 2, you are better off spotting 1½ and taking back big juice. If your team is up 1, you always have the empty net possibility late in game. You may have also noticed this year that teams are pulling their goalies much earlier, a precedent that was set in the playoffs last year by Patrick Roy of the Avs. Furthermore, I like the -½ -120 (or so) option a lot more than the -1 +100 option because you are not expecting the game to go into OT anyway. You are expecting a win. NHL Totals are always 5 or 5½, suggesting that most games are going to be decided by 1 or 2 goals. It's for those reasons you never see me spotting -1. That's just me, however. If it's working for you, by all means use it. Best of luck Chris.
Oct 15, 2014 21:30:41
Pete mentioned the metro division. I never understand how the Penguins continue to win with a depleted lineup, but they do. And the Rangers goaltending is not that bad, last time I looked it was a guy from Sweden named King Henrik. But I like the odds and I do like the Islanders so I would go for it
TOM
There you have it Pete, another endorsement for playing the Islanders at 11-1. That said and contrary to what you said Tom, King Hendrik has been on a steady decline for 3 years running and his time is up. He's no more than a aging, below average goaltender and we're not playing results. We said so last year and said so twice already this year before he allowed 6 goals twice.
Oct 15, 2014 17:17:07
Sherwood, I'm curious if you have an opinion in general about taking a solid favorite in hockey -1 .5 on the puck line. Very often it seems tempting since the payout is usually MUCH better and, of course, there's always that empty net goal possibility. Thanks.
Glenn
A solid favorite? You mean a big favorite like -180 or so or a favorite that you believe will win? I'm not sure what you mean by a solid favorite. I would assume that would be one with a high win expectation like Chicago over Calgary last night....In any case and on a personal level, I would never lay big juice in any sport so the -1½ + juice option is one I would play instead of laying 2-1. Still, we seldom do it because there are thousands of games to choose from every year and these "big favorites" do not have a winning percentage over the past 15 years when spotting 1½-pucks. Like everything else, there are good times to pull the trigger on these games with the empty net goal being a great "back-door" possibility but there is a reason that the books offer big take-backs on these and it's because it's a low percentage play in most cases. Good luck Glenn and thanks for writing.
Oct 15, 2014 13:37:42
Hey Sherwood, what do you think about an NHL futures bet of the Islanders winning the Metro division @ 11-1? I don't read much into the 3-0 start and may have missed the boat when they were 16-1, but the division is so bad. Flyers are pure garbage, NJ isn't for real and aren't deep enough for an 82 game schedule, Pittsburgh is good but not great, the Rangers have BRUTAL goaltending, the Caps are too one dimensional, the Canes are horrible. The only team I can't seem to get a grasp on is Columbus which I think is decent but when I look at them play all I see is competitive but can't score.
Pete
I disagree that the Devils are not for real but regardless, the Islanders certainly have a good chance of winning the Metro as long as they stay healthy. They are loaded with offense and Halak finally gives them stability in net. Leddy and Boychuk were great pickups. I definitely think it's worth a wager at that price
Oct 15, 2014 12:21:22
Is there any value in betting the Orioles to come back and win the Series? Baltimore has nothing to lose at this point, but if they can somehow find a way to get the series back home then I think all the pressure will be on KC and I"m not sure how they will respond.
TJ
TJ: The O's are 12-1 to win the Series down 0-3 but there is no value in playing them at that price. (see an earlier post in this section regarding same thing). You are way better off playing them in each game and "letting it ride" to get bigger payout then 12-1. For instance, if you bet 20 on them tonight at +106 you would win roughly even money + your 20 back to give you $40 to bet on them in game 5. If you doubled up on them in every game, you would then end up with 80, 160 and 320 for a payout of 16-1 or thereabouts.
Oct 13, 2014 16:52:58
Sherwood you wrote 0-3 yesterday you were 0-6.
J
Thanks J. You'll notice the 0-3 I went in NFL has shown up in Friday's record and not Sunday's because the games were posted on Friday. It's just the way the system works and I usually upload them again on Sunday so that they will appear in Sunday's results but forgot to do so this past Sunday. Therefore the 0-6 that we went on Sunday will show up as 0-3 on Friday in the NFL and 0-3 yesterday.
Oct 12, 2014 11:00:13
I couldn't agree with you more on the Giants and New York Rangers plays. I played them along with Cincinnati and Seattle. Here's hoping for another great week and good luck as always. P.S. I've been cashing on hockey overs...it seems goals are up slightly thus far but maybe I've just been fortunate.
Magus
Rough day for us both.
Oct 11, 2014 11:06:14
Hey Sherwood, I just wanted to say your site is amazing and not just for your well thought out picks with analysis. I used to just bet on games without worrying about units or anything. What would happen is I would go on a losing streak and then bet whatever I had left and lose it. I went on a sports bettors "tilt". I would then give it up for a few months and try the next football season. What I have realized thanks to your site, is that sports betting is kind of like investing in a low risk mutual fund. You don't get rich overnight and you make long term gains while day to day your fund fluctuates in the market. Some stocks in your fund go up, while some may go down. Just like you win some games and you lose some in a day. I have found that looking for value is such a big thing over the long run, like you said money line dogs are a must play. I am incorporating a poker style system in my bankroll. I started my bankroll with $400.00 and am currently betting $5.00/unit. In six weeks my bankroll has grown to $600.00. I am slowly building it up to $800.00 where I will look at betting $10.00/unit. For me this is entertainment, as well as hopefully making a little bit of money at the end of the month. Thank you so much for your advice, and keep up the good work. The naysayers on here are idiots. They expect you to hit every pick which is not humanely possible. They don't have the patience and are most likely the same people who expect 25% annual returns on their investments with no losses.
Chris
Chris: This is a great message that I hope everybody reads. I'm really glad you wrote because you "get it". Some will never get it and for those people I truly feel sorry for. You hit the nail on the head with your synopsis and there is really nothing for me to add other than I appreciate the time you took to write, you're very welcome and that it's a good feeling to know that people like yourself are benefiting from my website. Best of luck always and please stay in touch and let me know how you're doing.
Oct 8, 2014 10:58:16
Hey, hockey season starting tonight. I'm hoping things take off in the positive for us. But my question pertains to the NFL. Although you missed with the Miami pick on the suicide spectrum I was wondering if you could still give us insight each week. Maybe I have just missed the suicide picks the last couple weeks but I haven't been able to find them. Thanks
Phil
Sure Phil. I will post my suicide pick with insight every week in the BLOG section along with the other games that are not on our betting slate.
Oct 4, 2014 21:17:40
I have been following your NFL picks for some insight even though I try and put my own spin on handicapping the games. I have been following Randall the Handle for years and his radio show and that has lead me to your sight with your ties with Randall over the years. Anyways I was intrigued by your MLB record and decided to go on KC last night at +170. I was working the late shift and it gave me something to watch and make the time go by. Thanks for the great pick. I am now up 1.7 units to start this week in the NFL and already up 12 units this season in the NFL. Thanks for the pick and the good start to Week 5 in the NFL. Good luck out there! Piper
Piper
Well, thanks Piper for taking the time to send a message. We're glad to provide some insight into the games to help with your picks and we wish you continued success.
Oct 4, 2014 12:47:55
Hi Sherwood, Is there any value to play LAA or DET to win it all? LAA is my choice at 15-1 since they have a bullpen and as you've mentioned before, DET 17-1 does not. Keep lighting up NCAAF, love it!
Dave
Not really Dave.....You see, the Angels are about 5½-1 to come back and defeat KC. If they do that, they would likely be a small favorite to defeat Baltimore (but not Detroit should Detroit come back also). Finally, in the World Series, they would not be favored over St. Louis, the Dodgers or Washington but they would be against SF. Let's give them +100 in the World Series although they will likely be +120. If you bet them in the Series against K.C. at 5½-1 at let's say $50 and they won you would get back 250 + your 50 for a return of 300. If you bet that 300 on the next series and won, you would now have 600 and if you bet that 600 on them to win in the WS, you would have 1200.00 for a return of 24-1 for your $50. You are much better off betting them to defeat KC, and subsequently letting it ride until the World Series. That would be the better value. Best of luck Dave.
Oct 3, 2014 16:34:18
The Tigers bullpen blows up, just like you predicted. The offshore books and local bookmakers can't be too pleased with you right now. Why anyone would make their own selections as opposed to just following yours is beyond me. Some people would rather lose their money I guess!
Joel
Predicting the Tigers pen to blow up wasn't such a bold prediction Joel. They are bad and everyone knows it. I just thought the price on Baltimore should have been much higher and I played the value. Luckily it worked out this time. Thanks for writing and best of luck Joel.
Oct 3, 2014 11:18:22
I just want to say thanks for this website. I always look at your CFL and NFL plays each week and they have really helped me with my sports wagering. I am looking forward to your NHL plays. Keep up the great work.
Tim
Thanks very much Tim. We don't guarantee winners but we do guarantee genuine and well-researched picks that I personally bet on myself every single game I post. We're so glad you've been able to benefit from it and appreciate the time you took to write.
Oct 2, 2014 16:18:36
Me and a buddy have been on fire with your latest picks in the MLB and NFL/NCAA. We only wished we starting betting MLB for the whole month of september up 60+ units would have been awesome. great work, you make me sound smarter to my friends
Nick
LOL, thanks Nick and I'm glad you have been doing well. 60 + units in one month is a rare occurrence but timing is everything and at least you got in for a large portion of it. Here's to continued success. Thanks for writing.
Sep 30, 2014 16:44:33
Sherwood: A friend of mine told me about your site and said to give it a try for little while. He didn't guarantee anything but he said at the very least I would be more educated. Well, damn if timing isn't everything. Not only did I learn a lot about the "betting" side of sports but I made 3300.00 by betting just $50 a game this past month. I can't thank you enough for putting out this service for free. You are a generous and good soul and I wanted to let you know that. I've learned more in the past month than I have in the past 20 years of trying to do it on my own. I'm taking my friend out for dinner and a few beers and would be more than happy to treat you too if you would like to come along. Thanks a million Sherwood
Bernie
Bernie, I would be delighted to join you and your friend for dinner. Send me an email with details and I'll be there. Your message made my day so thanks for taking the time to write. I'm so glad you were able to learn something and make a nice profit at the same time. Cheers!
Sep 28, 2014 21:58:19
Another winning Sunday. You should be on the fan590 on Sunday mornings, either as a cohost or a featured weekly guest. Keep it going!
Joel
Thanks Joel. There's a lot of luck in these games and right now I'm getting the bounces. The NFL has a way of bringing one back down to Earth real quick but I do appreciate the acknowledgement and the time you took to write. On to NEXT WEEK!
Sep 25, 2014 16:11:36
On fire right now Sherwood - nice work! Looking forward to hockey season and you kicking my ass in a couple of pools. Keep up the great capping bro.
Feddz
Thanks Feddz, always great to hear from you. Don't underestimate yourself. You know your stuff and it'll be a great challenge. Thanks for taking the time to send a message and I'll see ya in the forums.
Sep 25, 2014 11:40:08
And with last night's 2-1, the mighty Sherwood is back in the black for the year. Congrats to you. Nice to see all your hard work has paid off after the horrible spring you had. And congrats to all of us who stuck with you and ignored the haters. Where did they all go anyways??? :)
Keith
Thanks Keith, it's been an extremely long swim back but it's just as important to keep it going. There will always be haters and people that want to see you lose for whatever reason. I haven't heard from them in a while but if they were fading me, they would be hooked for a fortune since the spring because they are laying more juice than I'm taking back. Anyway, thanks for acknowledging the hard work. Glad it has worked out for everyone's pocketbook too. Looking very forward to the NHL season too this year.
Sep 18, 2014 18:51:47
Hey, maybe i have just missed this in your write ups but i am curious as to why you don't put more emphasis on reverse line moves? Looking back through past results these reverse line moves tend to be a very good indicator of the winning side.
Dave
Dave: Let me elaborate at what a reverse line movement is for some of our readers that may not be informed before I answer your question. Reverse line movement is when a large majority of sports betting picks are on one team, yet the sports betting line moves in the opposite direction. To illustrate, we'll take tonight's game (TB at ATL) as an example. A large majority of bettors are on the Falcons but the line was dropping early in the day instead of the line rising as one would expect. So, in this case, Tampa would be the play in the "reverse line movement angle". The theory is that the BIG bets (sharp money) came in on the less popular team and public money came in late, which caused the number to move as expected. The early line movement is where the reverse line movement came into play. Dave.....I don't put too much emphasis on this because "sharp money is often used as an attempt to buy a "middle". In other words, the so-called sharps bet it down with the intention of buying it back later on in an attempt to cash in on a middle opportunity. In other words, they will bet Tampa at +5½ and then buy it back at 6½ and hope the game lands on six, thus cashing both ways. This gets rather complicated and it's something I'm not interested in using as a criteria for picking games. I don't trust sharp money as much as I trust my own instincts of knowing which way the steam is going to go. Using reverse line movement is also an anticipation play that takes all day to play out and it's simply something that I'm not interested in tracking all day. I could write three pages of data in regards to reverse line movements and how they DO NOT work, but for now, I'm simply stating that I'm not interested in making a wager based on it. If it works for you, by all means stick with it. Hope this answers your question and gives a better understanding to our readers of another "angle" that bettors utilize.
Sep 16, 2014 13:48:22
Nitpicking here but I'm a Royals fan! KC won last night in the opener not the Whitesox as you claim! Go Royals!....mind you, I agree that Hendricks could get shelled!
Scott
Thanks Scott my bad, thought I saw 3-2 final Chicago and I did but that was an eighth inning score.
Sep 15, 2014 11:27:46
I'm not sure I agree with one reader saying the first two weeks are hardest. I find the opposite to be true. Oddly perhaps, I've tended to do best in weeks 2-3 and the last few weeks of the season. Vegas gets sharper after a few weeks but by the season's final weeks, the best teams are often executing better and burying who they should with (MANY) exceptions of course, which can help betters who favour higher scoring favorites.
Magus
Almost everybody has different theories/angles regarding the NFL Magus and if it works for you, stick to it. One thing I know for sure is that many games are decided by pure luck and NOBODY can correctly predict the outcome or things that happen in a game no matter what you believe. My friend Randall the Handle writes a column in the Sun everyday and had this to say about the Giants game: "It’s Victor Cruz’s fault. Yes, the final score read 25-14 in Arizona’s victory over the Giants. Many bettors had the Giants taking points before it was announced that Arizona QB Carson Palmer would not play. However, those on the G-men saw the whole thing come apart on one dropped pass. So with Giants winning 14-13 in the 4th quarter and facing a 3rd and 6 from their side of center, usually reliable WR Victor Cruz dropped a pass that Eli Manning placed in a near perfect spot. Cruz dropped it. The Giants punted. Returner Ted Ginn Jr. was hit hard, forcing him back a few yards but then escaping and taking it to the house. Victor Cruz’s fault. Ensuing kickoff, the bungling New Yorkers fumbled, leading to a Cardinals’ field goal. It’s now 22-14. Victor Cruz’s fault. Despite all the ugly events, the door is still open for the Giants to get a late touchdown to possibly tie the game up or lose by two. The Giants make it all the way down to Arizona’s 13-yard line before RB Rashad Jennings is running in open field until he slips and has the ball stripped from him by that ferocious opponent known as the ground. And that was that. All Victor Cruz’s fault". This is just one example of a game that could have gone either way and there are so many just like it every week, where the game turns on one play, one dropped pass, one botched call by the refs, one fumble, one phantom call, etc, etc, etc. It's for that reason, I don't try and predict the outcome. I look for value, overreactions and under-reactions and let the chips fall where they may. Best of luck friend and thanks for writing.
Sep 15, 2014 09:40:05
Had a good NFL run in Week 2, went 6-3-1 Took your picks: BAL, DAL, WAS, NYG, SEA Made some picks of my own: BUF Moneyline +102, GB -7, SF -7 I can say I only disagreed with one pick and that was SF. I thought the 49ers would come out flying in their new stadium and torch the Bears. Well they did take a 17-0 lead, and then cue the collapse. I had to turn the game off after the back to back interceptions. Ah well, I was on the right side of a collapse last week with Cleveland. One thing I have noticed though, and I would think you do as well is, spotting anything -7 or higher whether home team or road is a rarity. The league is filled with such parity, and collapses are frequent. Anyway thanks for your great picks once again, and I should have taken your Chicago pick. Sherwood 1 Chris 0 Cheers! I picked BUF moneyline at +102, GB at -7, and SF -7 +106,
Chris
Very true about those big lines. They never seem to cover but sometimes it's so hard to pull trigger on the dog. I honestly thought KC would get buried yesterday but they nearly won outright. Anyway, glad you picked up a few winners yesterday and let's hope it continues. The NFL can bring one back down to Earth real quick. Best of luck Chris.
Sep 15, 2014 06:42:48
The first couple weeks of the football season are usually the toughest. Some touts suggest treading lightly until a read can be gathered on the teams. Your work the past two weeks demonstrates why you are the best in the business. Your critics should be silenced once and for all.
Joel
Joel: Thanks for saying so. I don't know if I'm the "best in the business" but I can assure you that nobody works harder, is more dedicated or puts in the hours I do to provide quality selections. Thanks so much for writing. You made my day.
Sep 14, 2014 18:32:22
Sherwood, good calls today, you got screwed by the giants, they should have won that game, but again, good work
TOM
Giants are a team in big trouble. They have such a lack of focus it seems. Anyway, thanks Tom. Hope you were able to cash in on the others.
Sep 12, 2014 11:28:19
Nice pick on Ravens last night. They dominated from the start. Steelers are in a for a long season.
Gurpreet
Thanks Gurpreet, not sure I agree with your analysis of Baltimore dominating from the start, as they were statistically being whacked in total yards well into the third quarter. Pittsburgh turned the ball over deep in Ravens territory twice and at their own 20 yard line to take away all momentum that they had. I didn't feel comfortable with that bet until the Ravens made it 23-6 with about 10 minutes left. Still, the Ravens won and covered and at the end of the day, that's all that matters.
Sep 11, 2014 14:16:40
Regarding your selection of Houston last eve, I HAD to bet it, but made the smallest dollar bet of this season. Imagine how I felt this morning when I saw the score and my plus 240!!!!!! Anyway, well done.
Mick Maguire
Thanks Mick, glad you cashed in on it.
Sep 11, 2014 10:53:19
Nothing like a +228 dog followed with a +129 chaser. Great work as always, thanks.
Ralph
You're welcome Ralph and thanks for taking the time to write and acknowledging the work. It means more to us than you know.
Sep 10, 2014 17:12:58
Hi Sherwood, Will you be posting any Stanley Cup Champion futures towards October? I'm looking at Dallas 26-1, and Colorado 18-1 as dark horse picks.
Chris
Chris: I think Dallas has great value at that price. They could change the landscape of the West with all that talent. Still, I would much prefer to pick a team forom the East with value because the West is so damn tough with L.A., Chi, Dallas, St. Louis, San Jose, Colorado, Ana and even Minnesota. The East is wide open and it'll be much easier to get to the finals for a team that gets hot. Look for value in the East would be my advice. I will be posting some NHL futures for sure sometime in late September. Over/under win totals (or points) and likely a couple of Cup winners as well. Best of luck
Sep 9, 2014 21:26:46
Love the site and you guys obviously know your stuff. My question is... Is it possible to bet on the Jays and have any sort of value? It seems like every time they have a game won they manage to blow it. Every time they are down and out they pull out a miracle win. Usually it seems like I am on the wrong side of these debacles. It's almost a complete toss up every single time. Quite frustrating.
Cam
Cam: It'as true, the Jays are very often a toss-up because outside of Marcus Stroman, none of their other starters are reliable. Toronto's solid offense gives them value when they are a dog and a chance to win almost every time out. However, when they're favored, they offer up no value unless Stroman goes. It would seem to me that you like to wager on Jays game, otherwise you would lay off them if you are "always" on the wrong side of what they do. My suggestion would be 1 of 2 things. Either lay off Jays games completely or bet them when they are a dog and against them when they are favored. Best of luck.
Sep 8, 2014 16:00:00
Thanks to you yesterday went 2-0 in MLB, and 5-2-1 in NFL! Taking the O's tonight in Boston at -106 on the moneyline, along with your Over/Under Pick. Great job with your Week 1 picks in the NFL.
R.V.
Thanks R.V. but it was also due to some good fortune with Baltimore scoring 3 in the 9th and The Raiders covering by scoring a TD on their final drive. Again, I always go back to value. You just play it and hope for the best cause there is no possible way anyone can predict the things that can happen in a game. I feel for anyone that played Jacksonville yesterday and lost. That was sick and so was Indy's cover over Denver. When the Jets were up 13-7 and scored a TD, had they kicked the extra point instead of going for 2, (and missing). Oakland's final TD would have meant nothing. I was close to having a break even day but as it turned out, it was a great day and those are always nice to get. Good luck with your picks today and for the rest of the year, Play VALUE.
Sep 7, 2014 19:24:27
I've gone on some losing streaks but haven't been kicked in the balls like this in a while. (I'd rather lose every game then have this happen) First, I was fortunate enough to have the Jays over Boston the night Jansen blew a two-run lead, that was for a 1300 payout. Earlier today I just needed the Bears to win for $1100 and later in the day the Oakland A's ruined another parlay when they walked 5 batters in the bottom of the ninth.. this one was for a $4100 payout.
Ryan
Pretty sick Ryan. I feel your pain. You are on the "right side" of a game and everything goes wrong. We've all suffered that and I really hope you shake if off and bounce back strong.
Sep 7, 2014 09:56:18
Love the Carolina and St. Louis picks; also going with my Pats to cover and Boys to stay close, if not win outright. The best Sunday of the year. Best of luck!
Magus
Best of luck to you too Magus.
Sep 7, 2014 00:43:12
Is it possible for you to tweet when you have a 3 unit bet?
Jazz
Sure, I can do that Jazz and will from now on.
Sep 4, 2014 14:47:37
I've followed these picks for over a year, thanks to Randal the handle. I was wondering what your opinion is of betthegreek.com as a gambling site since you have reviews of many other gambling sites.
Dave
Dave: Not sure why you`re thanking Randall because he and I no longer converge to make picks, although we remain closely in touch and speak almost daily. As for `betthegreek`they are an excellent out and you never have to worry about getting paid from them. They`re reliable and trustworthy but the reason you don`t see them advertised or promoted much is because they don`t offer incentives for sites to promote them. Bottom line is that they`re solid and can be trusted with your money­. Best of luck Dave.
Sep 3, 2014 23:25:34
Enjoy your season totals, respect your picks, cashing on the Brewers thanx to you. The Colts analysis very interesting, great work as usual. Looking forward to your lottery article
Tom
Thanks Tom. Glad to provide info that helps out. My pro-line article should be posted by Thursday, Sept 4. Best of luck and thanks for taking the time to write.
Sep 3, 2014 10:57:06
Had your 3 baseball picks + the Jays on r/l for a great parlay (single bets too). Needless to say, but thanks! Jays bats heating up, like them again but need to rattle Archer fairly early tonight! Still researching today's slate.....
Magus
Magus: I looked at Jays today too. In fact, I look at every game and could actually write them all up if I had to. Stroman made his first career start against Tampa Bay at home on August 22 and was pounded for 10 hits and 5 ER in 5 IP. Stroman has a 6.33 ERA on the road, compared to 2.97 at home. He is allowing a .307 BA on the road, and the Rays worked Stroman for 3 walks in their last outing. The Rays .330 home OBP is tied for 4th in the AL. Archer has filthy stuff and it's for those reasons I laid off the dog. Still, A Jays win would not surprise, as they have been running hot and cold the entire year and like you say, they're running hot right now. Best of luck with Jays and thanks for writing.
Sep 3, 2014 06:15:41
Thanks for a great night in MLB : Your Silent Follower : Best Wishes :
Mr. W.Baxter
Thanks Mr. B and you're very welcome.
Aug 31, 2014 19:34:46
Last time I checked Everton didn't beat Chelsea. Please correct this as you've credited yourself w a win.
John
My bad John. It's now corrected.
Aug 29, 2014 08:14:22
Temple wins by 30 as a 13.5 dog. You really thrive at finding "under the radar" value in college sports. Keep 'em coming!
Joel
Thanks for saying so Joel. I'm really pissed about the other game though. Tulane had that came covered easy. Another miracle loss that should have never happened. Back to the drawing board today! Thanks for writing
Aug 24, 2014 10:26:30
Hey Sherwood, Do you ever look for value in Pro Line? I stopped playing years ago after I realized what a rip off they were, however I noticed in football they lean heavily on favourites. Sometimes if the spread is -6 for the fav they will post at -7.5. The con is you need to win at least 2 games, but do you think it's worth playing at times on a couple of games with those inflated spreads?
R.V.
RV: Value is value and it can be found in Pro-line from time to time, as you mentioned. That said, there is NO value in playing a 3-team point-spread because it pays just 4-1 and that does not compensate for the extra 1 1½, 2, 2½ or even 3 points. A 3-team parlay should pay 6-1. The value in these proline point-spread differentials are in the 4-team parlay because they pay close to the true odds at 9-1. So, if you are going to play pro-line, I'm urging you to play the 4-team parlay or even the 5-team parlay at 19-1. Hitting them is difficult but at least you are not getting ripped off and you're going with the best of it because their lines are way off at times. Hope this helps. I will post a blog about this with the best way to take advantage of their soft lines later this week. Hope this helps RV and thanks for writing.
Aug 20, 2014 17:47:01
Thank you Sherwood, I appreciate the response and added info. I think I'm still going to play it, but maybe not as much. Best of luck to you. Thanks again, Ryan
Ryan
You're welcome Ryan. I'm glad to provide as much info as I can. I hope you win it.
Aug 20, 2014 17:01:08
Hello Sherwood, I was looking at some baseball games today, and one that stands out is the Royals over the Rockies. Danny Duffy is going for KC vs De la Rosa and the Rockies are depleted and this is their expected lineup for tonights game. No Blackmon and no Cuddyer for tonight. Looks pretty thin. What do you think? Rockies SS: Josh Rutledge CF: Drew Stubbs 3B: Nolan Arenado C: Wilin Rosario LF: Corey Dickerson 1B: Matt McBride RF: Brandon Barnes 2B: DJ LeMahieu SP: Jorge De La Rosa
Ryan
Ryan: No question the Royals look good. They are the hottest team in the league right now. I look in-depth into every game and let me say that I was damn close to posting KC. That said, Jorge De La Rosa has been very sharp lately. He's somehow gone 11-7 on a poor Colorado club. His swing and miss rate is in good shape and he still has a 93 mph heater, so there's hope for more Ks moving forward. The Rockies have been very good against left-handed pitching too. The line also concerned me, as it is too low and could be a "trap" and that concerned me more than anything. That's just my opinion. KC may bury them cause the Rocks are garbage and they're playing like garbage but there is something about this game, regarding the Royals, that isn't sitting right with me. BEST of Luck Ryan and if you bet it, I hope you win it.
Aug 17, 2014 17:26:56
Good job on baseball today! After not taking your CFL advice yesterday, I will take your advice, Go Argos
TOM
Thanks Tom. ARRRRGOOOOOOOSSSS!!! Let's get this one.
Aug 16, 2014 16:46:34
Really surprised you are not all over Saskatchewan today vs Montreal, think it will be ugly for the Als, they are a mess with too many chefs in the kitchen. Higgens and Matthews are not friends, now they are thrown together. Montreal does not play well in western Canada, think Riders win by 30 today, easily going over the spread
TOM
Thanks Tom and I really give you props for sending an opinion before the game starts. Best of luck. Frankly, I was close to playing Montreal because of the extreme "buy-low/sell-high" angle that is certainly in play here but refrained because of how bad they have been. That said, I expect an Als cover but since I didn't play it or bet it, I hope I'm wrong so you cash your ticket.
Aug 16, 2014 06:34:49
Hi Sherwood, This is the time of year when I really start to smile and appreciate your work bc of your NFL breakdowns. At any point, would you consider throwing a 0.1-0.3 unit bet on a SB winner? Maybe a NO or GB, not a heavy fav like SF SEA or DEN, unless you think it's best to try now. Love your work on all sports, please keep up the good work you do. Keep the future bets coming!
Dave
Dave: I'm all in favor of future bets but have always liked playing over/under win totals for the year because not only is there tremendous value, but you also have a vested interest in that team every week. Here's the problem with betting a SB winner like the 2 that you mentioned. New Orleans or Green Bay are not heavy favorites but they are the next tier of favorites. A lot of things have to go right for any team to win the SB and I don't think there is any value in playing a team at 10-1, 11-1 or thereabouts You are going to get between 5 and 7-1 on those 2 teams in late December should they make the playoffs. I would much prefer true value on a team like Philadelphia at 28-1, St. Louis at 45-1, the Lions at 35-1 or even the Giants at 51-1. There is going to be a sleeper or two or three that make the playoffs this year and if any team at big odds gets in, you can always hedge and assure a profit. Betting teams at low odds does not give you an opportunity to hedge and even if it wins, there is no value in playing them at those odds so early in the year. If Brees or Rodgers gets hurt, you can rip up your ticket. The same can be said for Bradford, Eli Manning, etc but at least you would be ripping up a ticket at odds of 45-1 instead of 10-1. My suggestion is think big and go after a team at big odds. The 4 that I mentioned all have a great chance to make the playoffs, especially, Detroit, Philly and St. Louis and I would look to those types instead of "public" teams that offer no value. Thanks for taking the time to write and for the kind words. Hope this gives you another perspective to look at.
Aug 13, 2014 12:14:00
Hey Sherwood. Been following for a couple years now. Thanks for everything you do. I am a recreational better and as such have a small bankroll on only one site. Since I can't be shopping around for lines, how much difference is "too much" to make a bet good. For example, your Carolina season total, you have at -140, my site has at -175. A few points either way I've never cared to much, figuring they will even out. But how much is too much?? Thanks again for all your hard work
Keith
Thanks Keith and your question is a good one. As a recreational, small bettor, I wouldn't worry about paying a little extra in certain situations, especially on a future bet such as Carolina that will give you action the entire year. I would, however, wait and follow the progress of the line movement, as there is a very good chance that your sportsbook will set the juice lower by the first week. For a serious, bigger player I wouldn't recommend betting on a "bad number" because there are better lines but in your case and others in a similar situation, it's not a big deal at all to pay a little extra. I always recommend playing the best number possible, as it's still easy to open an account at one site and withdraw funds from another to deposit into your new one. On a $100 bet, you would save $30.00 if it lost. However, if it's too much of a hassle, I would not concern myself with the price difference. Best of luck and thanks for writing.
Aug 13, 2014 08:20:32
Thanks for a great night in MLB . 3 great winners . So where are all these bashers now ? Again a BIG thanks ; Your Silent Follower.
Mr. W. Baxter
You're welcome Mr. B. Thanks for the support. Hopefully some of those bashers will have a change of heart and understand that I'm on the same side as they are. What I'll never understand is why people root for others to lose money. Perhaps one or more of them can address that in a message. I would be interested to find out. If they do write I'll post their messages here.
Aug 12, 2014 14:14:33
I goofed on your Carolina pick. I thought it was 9 1/2 and checked it again and it is 8 1/2 so back to the casino. Sorry about that. At my age it's called a brain fart.
Mick Maguire
No worries Mick. It was kinda funny so thanks for the laugh. Best of luck friend!
Aug 12, 2014 14:07:29
Kudos to Sportswagers on the Carolina Panthers. Yesterday I check two books in Vegas that I frequent to make that bet. The juice was very high and I was short funds, but thought heck I'll go to the bank and come back tomorrow. No!! I went to the same two books that I went to yesterday and the line was now 8 1/2: I went to a new one that I hadn't gone to yesterday and it was 8 1/2. I went to a fourth one and the line for season wins over/under for The Carolina Panthers was 8!! You nailed that one and Mick was asleep. Good job, however on your part.
Mick Maguire
Note to readers: There's another message up next from Mick
Aug 6, 2014 10:44:13
Does Sportswagers intend to have any picks for REGULAR SEASON WINS as they did last year with the Steelers?
Mick Maguire
Yes, we'll have over/under win total plays for the season posted within the next couple of weeks. Stay tuned and we'll tweet it out as soon as they are posted. We also had Washington last year under the total.
Aug 1, 2014 16:57:20
Brian,been thinking about betting offshore this season. Can you give us a little tuorial on your offshore sponsers (i.e.,how can we get money to them,do they pay off any time you want,and how long does it take to get your money,are they totally reputable,where are they located offshore and so on) anything else you can add would be appreciated. i'm excited to go offshore and just would like the process to be easy. (I live in the us by the way) thanks
paul
Paul: Thanks for the inquiry and I will write s blog sometime tomorrow (Saturday) and go into great detail regarding our sponsors and the many options each one has in terms of deposits, withdrawals, betting options and all the other things you inquired about. When it's posted I will tweet it out but in case you are not a twitter user, please check our blog section over the next 24 hours for a full report. Any other questions, please feel free to ask.
Aug 1, 2014 13:26:38
Hey, I also took Wpg at +4½ instead of outright thanks to your insightful analysis. As for luck, you certainly have a point. However in the S.F. Giants baseball game last night and the Eskies/Stamps game last week (which the Stamps had no business winning), I think the appropriate term to use would be brain cramp. All the best as usual, Brian.
Brian Hayward
Very true sir, and brain cramps are another unpredictable factor, like the football player that calls for a fair catch on his own 1-yard line. How many times have we seen that? Best of luck to you too Brian!
Aug 1, 2014 13:10:25
CFL is on fire and MLB turning back around. Rooting for ya to have a sick run going into CFB/NFL. Thanks again for the hard work, anyone giving you a hard time just doesn't get it. It takes a lot of work to do what you do and it is appreciated.
JDR
You are very welcome JDR and you're right, it does take a lot of hard work and time to go inside the numbers and try and break these games down. I put my heart and soul into this it sure is appreciated when folks such as yourself acknowledges it. Thanks so much for writing. It mean a lot to me.
Aug 1, 2014 11:40:11
What a rollercoast game in the CFL last night....it's about time I'm on the right side and the stars lined up in that last few minutes..when you're on the other side, you watch a game and say here we go, I'm going to lose this play. This time I'm watching the drive transpire and I'm thinking here we go, I've got this one. Thanks for the pick. I took Winnipeg outright as well and it worked out well.
JOE
Joe, I've said it before and I'll say it again that luck plays a huge factor in the outcome of a high percentage of games, whether it's baseball, football, hockey or basketball. San Fran defeated Pittsburgh on Wednesday when Travis Snider, who was on second base (the bases were loaded) thought that a walk was issued. Snider began his walk to third base and was picked off. The man on third tried to go home and he, too was picked off. Bases loaded one out with Pittsburgh up 5-4 in the seventh and two guys get picked off on the same play. San Fran went on to score 2 in the bottom of the inning and won the game. That's just an example of how luck figures in and it's not an isolated incident. A three-pointer at the buzzer, a fumble on the goal line, a soft goal in the dying minutes are things that occur all the time, among other unpredictable occurrences. That's the reason we insist on playing value and let the chips fall where they may because there is no crystal ball in the world that can predict the outcome of games. I'm glad the Winnipeg game worked out in our favor. Thanks for writing and best of LUCK always.
Aug 1, 2014 08:08:53
Let's hope the 11-2 run you are on silences the critics out there. Your documented track record over the years was a strong indicator that a correction in results was long overdue. Keep up the great work!
Joel
I often wonder if those that write in actually do fade every game I post. Anyway, thanks for the kind words and support. I do appreciate it.
Jul 30, 2014 21:17:05
Hi sherwood, i looked on betfair and the odds were crazy for the lay. did you end up putting in a bet. all the odds say 900 to 1
Michael
Michael: The thing about Betfair is you have to watch it a few times to get a better understanding of how the market works. Remember, it's an exchange so the house is just a facilitator that allows the bettors to play against one another. The house does not set the odds and the odds aren't based on what horses are being bet. You set your own odds so when you see a lay of 900-1 as you say, that is very early in the market. There was probably 20-30 minutes to post time when you saw that lay of 900-1 and that is an individual or several individuals asking for 900-1 on that horse. There are people that play there and ask for 900-1 on every horse in the race and if someone bites they are on at that price but nobody does. As post time gets closer, you won't see odds like that at all. So, I can set my odds at let's say 4-1 and if that is too low (let's say the REAL odds on the horse is 8-1) it's doubtful someone will take my action. The best thing to do is watch the market and get a feel for how it works. Watch it from 15 minutes to post time until the race goes off and you will get a much better understanding if you do that for 3 or 4 races. Incidentally, the horse we were fading, General Perfect, was a late scratch and did not run. Hope this helps you out a bit. Any questions feel free to ask or even email at info@sportswagers.ca
Jul 30, 2014 14:37:51
Can't thank you enough. Write ups have been bang on. 7-0 the last two days in MLB. Keep it up brother. Where are the haters now?
Bowen
You are welcome Bowen. There will always be haters and I can live with it. For whatever reason there will always be people that want to see you lose. What they don't understand is that I'm on the same side as them. They are short-sighted and flock together when I'm running bad to criticize and try to get under my skin. It does not work. There are people like that in every walk of life, not just sports betting. They like to see their neighbors lose their jobs and their friends and distant cousins lose money in a business deal or on the stock market. We're the opposite. We love to see people thrive and do well. We love to see our friends and family thrive and even strangers. We understand that we control our own destiny and never blame others for any hardships or money lost. I wouldn't trade positions or state of mind for theirs on my worst day. I have far more support than haters and I appreciate every single one. I have a pretty good friend that is well-known in the poker world and he's one of the nicest guys in the world that is pretty much loved wherever he goes. Yet he gets negative mail from people that say he's lucky, that he's going to go broke, etc. His name is Daniel Negreanu and it doesn't bother him a bit. On a MUCH smaller scale, it doesn't bother me either. Thanks so much for the support and for the encouraging words.
Jul 29, 2014 12:17:30
4/4 Perfect night, been following your write ups for years. Great Work.
Jeru
Thanks Jeru. As you know it has been a tough year but in this business, one has to expect a losing season once every five years. However, I put my heart into it and you are getting genuine selections with value every day and that will not change because of a bad year. Thanks for the support and for taking the time to write.
Jul 29, 2014 10:48:31
Great night again for you . I added Tampa Bay for nice 5 teamer Thanks as always
Slopitch
Sweet. That had to pay close to 25-1. Thanks Slopitch and best of luck the rest of the way.
Jul 29, 2014 06:44:35
BANG!!!!! What a night. Look at all those winning pups!!! Well done, sir.
Justin
Thanks Justin, I appreciate the time you took to write. Need to keep it going though. Onto today.
Jul 29, 2014 05:30:20
Thanks for a great night Monday : Had them all and I bet a lot of your daily followers did too. As always > Your Silent Follower.
Mr. W. Baxter
Thanks Mr. B. Nice to have a night like that from time to time. Hopefully I go on a nice run for a month leading into NFL. Thanks for taking the time to write.
Jul 27, 2014 18:43:16
it is impossible to lose money on an exactor unless you are playing multiple combinations
Henry
Exactly.
Jul 23, 2014 10:40:57
Great call on Miami last night sherwood. I appreciate all the work you put in. Keep it up
Ryan
Thank you Ryan. What, no great call on the Mets too?........just kiddin man, as I really do appreciate the time you took to write. Thank you again.
Jul 22, 2014 08:17:17
Excellent work last night. It takes guts and guile to pull the trigger on a team like Texas right now, and it's good to see that you were rewarded for your effort. Hopefully this will trigger a sustained winning streak. Best of luck!
Joel
Thanks very much for taking the time to write Joel. Best of luck to you too.
Jul 20, 2014 13:00:49
What is wrong with horse racing, sometimes I hit an exactor and I lose money on the wager, is it not enough money in pools or just everyone betting the same horses, starting to turn me off this so called sport. Great job by the way. thanks
Tony P
Tony: My feeling is that you are either betting heavy favorites in exactors and/or you are making too many bets on payouts that return little. Rarely should you lose money if you hit an exactor so my suggestion would be to cut down on the amount of wagers you are making in a single race, especially when playing horses at low odds. Thanks for writing.
Jul 19, 2014 15:04:14
Always enjoy reading your write ups, good stuff. Cannot agree with Montreal pick, they are always dreadful when visiting the left coast, going the other way, best of luck
Tom
Good call Tom and it should be noted you messaged me BEFORE kick off. Best of luck always to you too.
Jul 12, 2014 14:49:44
I somewhat like your reply to Shawns' excuses crap. However, I just would have told him to create his own free selection site. But hey, that is only my humble opinion.
Brian Hayward
That's actually a really good suggestion Brian and one I will definitely use. Thanks for writing.
Jul 12, 2014 14:09:17
Hang in there brother, I always appreciate the time and effort you put into your picks, regardless of the outcome. All of these children getting upset when your picks don't work out shouldn't be gambling in the first place. Don't change a thing Sherwood. All the best!
Bowen
Thanks Bowen for the encouraging words and for the time you took to write. It's messages like yours that outweigh the negative one's by a wide, wide margin.
Jul 12, 2014 12:29:48
Been following and a huge fan for years. Love your write ups. Keep up the great work!!
Mark
Thank you Mark.
Jul 11, 2014 15:08:31
Sherwood, been following you for years and the only thing you've done is help me make money. I used to be a losing player until I came across your site. Just thought I'd let you know. Funny how people rag on you during a losing streak. Keep up the great work!
Graham
Thanks Graham. I appreciate the time you took to write, especially now during a bad run. All the best and best of luck, always!
Jul 10, 2014 21:55:29
Let's see what excuses you come up with today.....
Shawn
Shawn: There's an old cliche that says, "if you can't stand the heat, get out of the kitchen". These "old" cliches have been around forever because they're true. Yours is not the only facetious message I have received over the past 48 hours. I have received several but I'm not going to post them all because they all have the same tone. So let me say this to you and to everyone else that wrote as well: In this business, and nobody is immune, you are going to run cold and you are going to run hot. I put myself out there every day and have been doing so for 14 years and counting. If it makes you feel better to vent or attack me, and this goes for everyone, I can take it. It bothers me not. Indeed, I hate losing more than anyone. Only an idiot enjoys losing but it doesn't phase me. I'll get back on the horse tomorrow, work my heart out to provide the best information and value I can find. At night, win or lose, I don't lose sleep over it. I have learned to take the good with the bad. Furthermore, I don't hold a gun to anyone's head. Use the info however you like. I am on the computer at 6:00 AM every day and work until 1:00 or 2:00 PM seven days a week, 362 days a year (the 3-day baseball all-star break is the only time off I take). It's hard work and dedication and I go to bed at night knowing I gave it my all. In any form of gambling or games of chance, losing streaks are inevitable. In the 14 years that I've been posting plays, I've had many losing streaks and will have many more but what I won't do is cheat my readers with plays that are not genuine. I personally bet on every game I post without exception so it costs me money when I lose. However, I don't blame anyone and it would likely serve you well if you took a similar approach.
Jul 9, 2014 22:19:21
Wow! Thank you I have had a great last 3 days! This is incredible! Please keep posting your picks.
Joshua
Nothing I can do about the White Sox blowing a 4-0 lead in the eighth when the manager pulled Sale for no reason whatsoever. Nothing I can do about the Cubbies blowing a 5-0 lead or the Jays blowing a 6-3 lead. It happens and that's why I keep insisting that you must play value and let the chips fall where they may. No crystal ball in the world can predict those things. I don't try either. I post plays that offer value and over time it works out. I don't gloat when things are going well and I don't hang my head when they are not. After 35 years of doing this, I have learned to stay even keeled and stay with the course. You should too.
Jul 9, 2014 22:17:14
0-4 today!!! Great as always
Jay
Actually we went 0-3-1. Holland/Argentina was a push.
Jul 8, 2014 19:18:27
Good thing you didn't bet 21 units on Brazil today! What an epic slaughter. Good luck tomorrow Sherwood, I love the dutch pick on the Asian line as well
Dingle
Jul 8, 2014 12:36:00
Sherwood: I can't thank you enough for the incredible insight you offer in your horse racing fades. You have opened my eyes to all the information a racing form gives, info that myself and I'm sure many others did not fully comprehend. I use to bet a lot of favorites at the track and got buried most of the time but since you started fading horses, I thought I would give it a try. Your winning % going against favorites has earned me enough money to make me stop betting on horses all together. I joined Betfair and now just fade them, using your philosophies to fade false favorites and it's worked out beautifully. I probably owe you more than a few beers. Thanks again Sherwood, as I would have never known that this type of wager was even available had you not generously pointed it out.
Stuey
Thanks very much Stuey. I urge everyone to join BETFAIR, not only for the horse racing fades but the incredible opportunities during the NFL and NBA seasons in their live betting. Most live betting has a 20 to 30 cent line (in other words, both teams are -115) but at Betfair, it's a 5 to 10 cent line and it's against other bettors, not against the house. I will write an entire blog on this soon.
Jul 8, 2014 12:16:01
Hey sherwood! Love the site, and the great insight each and everday. I noticed a rather large bet on Brazil today of 21+ Units.... Are you really that confident in this selection, or is it a typo?
Dingle
Thank you Dingle. It's for sure a typo and it's been corrected to 1 unit. Thanks for the kind words and the heads up on this error.
Jul 6, 2014 14:27:16
Hi Sherwood, I noticed the Rays are 28-1 to win the East and 80-1 to win the AL. I'm definitely making small plays on them myself. The AL East is weak, and their pitching should put them in contention by the season's end. It's certainly good value. Thanks for your continued efforts.
Magus
I don't think 28-1 is big enough Magus. If you figure that it will take 86-87 wins to win the AL East, TB would have to go about 46-25 the rest of the way or thereabouts. Last week when they were 12 games out they were 150-1 to win AL East so I think the value on them has passed. Still, they are hot, 28-1 is still worth a bet and 80-1 is a very good bet. I made this bet on June 27 at BET365: Selections No. Selections Event Event Date E/W Terms Odds Result 1 TB Rays MLB AL East (To Win Division) 09/30/2014 None +15000 To Run Risk: 25.00 To Return: 3,775.00
Jul 5, 2014 02:02:14
Sherwood Your selections where GREAT on Friday making a lot of bettors/followers happy. Again a BIG Thanks for all your efforts : Your Silent Follower
Mr. W. Baxter
Thanks Mr. B. I appreciate the kind words and support you've given me over all these years and I don't take it for granted. All the best.
Jun 27, 2014 06:52:35
What a great call on Winnipeg last night. Who do you think was the driving factor on the line going to 7, 7 1/2 and even 8 at 5 Dimes? Thanks, keep up the good work!
Ralph
Thank you Ralph. It could've been a combination of square money, sharp money or even syndicate money but I can only speculate. After the number moved so dramatically, I delved as deep as I could into finding out why and could not uncover anything significant otherwise I would've tweeted it out to give readers a heads up. It was just one of those strong "buy-low, sell-high" opportunities that we were able to cash in on.
Jun 22, 2014 22:57:57
What was your CFL record last year? Can't find it on your website. Thanks
Jazz306
Jazz: on every individual sport, you can click on the sport and then on the right "historical picks. Here is our CFL record over the past few years. http://www.sportswagers.ca/cfl/history.php
Jun 20, 2014 15:01:16
Sherwood lol you play the money line all tournament then take Costa Rica on the spread for one unit. The bad luck continues although you can say a win is a win. Thankfully I read your write up and made my own decision to back Costa Rica in the money line at plus 610. Just goes to show we can all take your information and use it to our advantages. Thanks again for your hard work.
Steve
Your welcome Steve and thanks for the message. You are right about taking the info and using it to make decisions like you did in taking back 6-1 on Costa Rica. Nice cash! Although Costa Rica won outright, I was very happy with the win. When they went up 1-0, it felt like the worse I could do was push and that's a comfortable position to be in. Best of luck the rest of the tourney and beyond.
Jun 20, 2014 14:33:08
I find that some offshore books make it virtually impossible to get your money back from them if you win a large bet. It takes seconds to deposit, but weeks of e-mails, phone calls, scanning of identification, etc to withdraw money. Sometimes you just don't get it at all. What good are better odds than PROLINE if you will never get your winnings?
Scott Lennox
Scott: With all due respect, your comments are a little off the wall. Perhaps you had a bad experience with some fly-by-night offshore book and if that's the case I can understand your frustration. However, in this day and age and with so many reputable books and reviews on them available, it would be foolish to deposit your money with a book that isn't reputable. A book that doesn't pay will have their reputation ruined so quickly due to social media (twitter, FB, etc) that they cannot afford to stiff anyone. Years ago, getting paid may have been a bit of a hassle from time to time but that is not the case anymore. In fact, getting paid has never been easier because of the massive competition from reputable sportsbooks to get your business. I personally guarantee you no problems whatsoever from any of the sportsbooks we advertise on our site. Hope you get your issue resolved and if not, send me an email at info@sportswagers.ca with all the details and I'll see if I can help you out.
Jun 17, 2014 22:32:08
Hi Sherwood... Like the fearless approach towards the big dogs in the World Cup...it's a shame however to walk away empty handed when teams like Mexico put in a game performance vs Brazil. Instead of the 1x2 wager, why not take the asian handicap? Mexico covered the +1.5.
Kevin
Thanks for the suggestion Kevin. It's something I'm definitely going to look at closer for the remainder of the tournament and will likely utilize, as a few readers have also made that recommendation. Best of luck and thanks for taking the time to write.
Jun 16, 2014 11:02:12
Sherwood: Love your site, have recommended it to all of my friends. Tough to believe that when I first got into sports betting I thought Pro Line was the only way until I discovered offshore lol. Anyway, keep up the great work!
Chris
Thanks Chris. It's actually mind-boggling how many people play pro-line and give in to the disgusting odds they offer. In baseball for example, both teams are laying juice in almost every game. The bottom line is that when the government is the house, you virtually have no chance. Anyway, I'm glad you discovered the better way with offshore betting and I truly appreciate the kind words and support. Best of luck.
Jun 13, 2014 22:09:41
Sherwood: I'm long overdue in writing my appreciation for all the work you do on this site. I've been following for some time; first through Randall and continuing though your efforts since taking over full time. You both have taught me so much in terms of how to look at a game from a value perspective. Even in the rare event (often unwisely!) I disagree with your ultimate conclusion, your process is one that I have followed with considerable success over the years. Thanks so much for being so generous with your insights and continued success in the years to come.
Mike K
Mike: You're very welcome. Thanks so much for taking the time to write and for the kind words. Your message made my day. Continued good luck to you too.
Jun 12, 2014 15:11:32
Kudos from me also. I don't agree with all selections; however I do appreciate your sharing your method for calculating "Quality Starts". Also, does xERA mean runners left on base by the starter whom was pulled but the bullpen could not keep them off the score sheet? I have been following this site off and on for years ( I remember the pink background of the original site.). I also appreciate your record keeping. Not many other free handicapping sites do that.
Brian Hayward
Brian: Thanks for writing.....xERA means "expected ERA". In other words, if you take the league average of strand rate, walks and inherited runners that score off you that the pen inherits, it gives you an "expected ERA". One starter can come out with the bases loaded and the pen could get out of it, while another starter can be charged with three runs if the pen does not hold it. xERA factors everything into it. As for my original site with the pink background.....That's cool you remember. Check it out and thanks for the support all these years. http://web.archive.org/web/20020326122707/http://sportswagers.ca/
Jun 10, 2014 01:18:28
Buddy some people talk pure shit to you. Your write ups are amazing. You obviously know what you're talking about. Your write up on how you analyze a quality pitching start was great stuff. I check out your site on a daily basis. Great call on the Kings. Especially the -1.5 series wager. Beauty stuff. I recommend your site to all my buddies. The smart ones pay attention. Thanks for providing such quality stuff, really appreciate it
Reef
You're welcome Reef and I really appreciate the kind words and support. I put my heart and soul into this and what some people fail to realize is that I'm on the same side as they are. Thanks for writing and best of luck always.
Jun 4, 2014 19:25:22
Someone who is allergic to favorites laying -160 and risking 8.4 units on the series so far? Looks like we are in full chase mode.
Marty B.
Have you ever known me to chase? For 13 years, I have been running this site and have never chased anything. My position is that the Kings are grossly undervalued in this series and I may be looking to buy back some Rangers should the Kings take a 1-0 or 2-0 lead. That will present a free roll for 4 or 5 units. It's a little premature to call it a chase but at least you wrote in before the series started so for that I give you props.
May 31, 2014 20:52:21
The Blackhawks at +175 to win the Cup is a strong value play, in my opinion. They are virtually unbeatable at home and have been an extremely difficult out the past 4 playoff seasons. The Kings are a great team, but might be spent at this point of the playoffs.
Joel
Joel: I definitely think you have found some excellent value there. Regardless of whether Chicago defeats L.A or not, you are essentially getting +175 on them in the next game to defeat Los Angeles because there is very little chance of the Rangers beating Chicago in a 7-game series. Chicago would be a -220 or more favorite in that series. Thanks for sharing this value play.
May 25, 2014 11:37:35
What are your thoughts on Kreider? He's starting to get a reputation as a reckless player. I don't see where else he is supposed to go when he is taken down heading to the net. The Montreal coach said it was accidental after game 1 then called it reckless later on.
Len
At least Krieder is valuable. He has some good hockey skills and would be a valuable asset on any team. He's one of those role players that every team needs but guys like Prust, Daniel Carcillo and Colton Orr, among others, are GOONS that the NHL uses as a marketing tool and it's getting tiring.
May 22, 2014 13:54:32
Hey Sherwood wanted to know your thoughts on Montreal tonight. Obviously you have them in the series, but if not, what do you think? At +154. Was going to jump back in after losing 3 games in less than 10 seconds total. (Houston ML 0.9, Spurs 1.7, Ana reg 7 seconds) WTF Thanks
David
David: No chance would I play the Rangers at a big price. Again, in terms of value, Montreal definitely holds it in Game 3. However, I don't like that the Habs are using Tokarski instead of Budaj. Budaj gave them outstanding backup all year and DESERVES the start while Tokarski is so green to come in at this point. Also, I can't stand that P.K. Subban went off by saying Lundqvist has been lucky. That statement has gotten a lot of press and it'll also be hanging in the Rangers dressing room. Why would Subban motivate a team that didn't need motivation and that may have felt complacent tonight? Ridiculous. It's for those two reasons that I'm not playing Montreal tonight. Whatever you choose, best of luck.
May 18, 2014 18:37:55
Hello Sherwood.. have you checked out the odds to win the IIHF World Championship? I don't think my site has updated the odds based on Ovechkin's injury. I'm all over Canada at + 400 to win the tourney. I figure they should win the quarter final game (despite their loss to France) and are probably a good bet to make the finals. I believe they would play the winner of the US-CZE game. If they advance to the finals you could always buy back. What do you think?
Paul
Paul: I really haven't been following it closely enough to make an opinion but based on your information it would seem you definitely have found some strong value. I think you made a smart wager and wish you the best of luck. I'll have a closer look and I may make a wager also. Thanks for taking the time to write to give us all a heads up.
May 17, 2014 09:14:32
Just a note to Kirk. I believe it was 2 seasons ago when this site noted Barry Zito's declining skills. Funny thin happened he would give up a ton of runs but the Giants would win 7-6, 10-8, etc. There is more than one way to skin a cat. I started betting over in every game Zito started. I don't remember the exact record but it was something like 12-3 over in the games he pitched. The analysis was correct betting against him straight up (the result) didn't work but betting against his skills worked in another way. Maybe start checking the totals in Weaver's starts and find another way to take advantage if he is slipping.
Greg
Thanks Greg. You make a very valid point by saying there are more than 1 way to skin a cat. Thanks for chipping in.
May 16, 2014 21:34:25
May 15, 2014 15:55:51
Hi Sherwood, Just wondering why no wager today on the Cleveland Indians .... today's matchup of Salazar vs. Happ looks at least as lop-sided to me as yesterday's Kluber vs. McGowan, and both Cleveland's bullpen and bats are in better current form than Toronto's. The only negative that I could find is that Cleveland hasn't hit left handed pitching very well this year, but hey this isn't Clayton Kershaw they're facing .... I pulled the trigger at -104, let me know what I missed. Thanks in advance, keep up the good work!
Canuck17
It does look good at first glance Canuck but the Indians are horrible against lefties (0-7) on the road with a BA of .202 and an OPS of .600, both the worst marks in MLB. Happ is awful against a right heavy lineup but that is not what he's facing today. Best of luck Canuck and thanks for writing in.
May 13, 2014 07:03:59
Great call on Ducks. They are going to be a lock against the Hawks next round. Gibson is the real thing. Best goalie left in the playoffs this side of Carey Price. Bet the farm on the Penguins tonight. Their stars will show up for Game 7. The Rangers so-called stars will not.
Joel
Thanks Joel. Not sure the Ducks are a "lock" though to get by Chicago, providing Chicago even beats Minnesota but I do admire your conviction in saying so and at least you say so before the games or series begin. BEST OF LUCK and thanks for chipping in. Respect.
May 12, 2014 16:36:17
Sherwood you are letting Kirk put you on tilt ! We have all had bad streaks ! You still have 5.5 months to get back the 60 units down. I think you have a 50% chance of getting slightly positive for the year, and a 25% chance of at least getting the -60 units down to like -10 or -30 units, and 25% it gets worse. personally i think you will finish with 20 units of even ( minus or plus) , for the year ! no way to overcome this variance in a calender year unless you have like 10,000 picks a year....and that won't work ! Odds are a winning career capper has a losing season every so often, it sort of has to happen mathematically. I don't suggest fading Brian Steinberg after a cold stretch !
Fuzzy
Thank you Fuzzy. I appreciate the support very much. Very much.
May 11, 2014 14:58:00
Keep betting against Jared Weaver. I'm sure you've made money in your betting career doing that. All the guy does is win. Forget about all your researched stats. He's a winner.
Kirk
Another genius that sends a message when the score is 7-1 in the seventh inning for the Angels. If you felt that way Kirk the Genius why not send this message before the game started? With this message, people that send me their plays after the games are final are now 525-0. At least I stick my neck out and give an educated opinion based on value from that research. You make a recommendation based on the score of a game in the eighth inning and any fu**ing idiot can do that.
May 10, 2014 00:46:23
Great call on the Wild. Good job and best of luck the rest of the way.
Paul
Thanks Paul
May 1, 2014 17:40:40
Sherwood, I for one, would like to commend you on your write ups and general input into your baseball analysis. I have been reading a lot of misguided crap on the internet, but believe me, your write ups are the BEST and most insightful articles I have read. Thank you so much for taking the time to share your incredible knowledge with us. It is a pleasure to find you on here. I read your stuff and ignore the rest. Thanks again, and kindly keep it up
Delta
Well, thanks for saying so Delta. You made my day.
Apr 30, 2014 15:52:44
Hi, I'm in a similar situation with the Kings tonight that you're in with the Wild. I took the Kings when they were down 3-0 in the series for a significant payout. I don't know if I should hedge my play now or wait for the game to start and hope for a Kings lead.
Paul
Paul: I would definitely hedge now because you probably received something like 8½-1 or thereabouts and therefore you are in a great hedging position. I would hedge small to make it a no risk wager and then if the Kings scored first or took a lead at some point, you could buy back some more to assure yourself a nice profit. BEST OF LUCK.
Apr 29, 2014 18:35:17
How can you say you are not having a bad year? You are - 60 units and 40 games below .500. Do you have to be -100 units before its a bad year? You will not get rich going agianst Sydney Crosby and Lebron James thats for sure. Bulls game goes under tonight and Thunder get it done minus the points. Good night and good luck
Dan
I was referring to the NHL only Dan.
Apr 29, 2014 11:28:31
A rare night where I play home r/l on Boston.......Bedard will not last more than 3-4 innings. Tampa just may be the least of the east, unless the Jays' garbage starters (other than the two savvy oldtimers of course) have something to say about it.
Magus
As you know Magus, I have faded Bedard all season with good results but I really don't like the weather conditions for spotting 1½-runs in this game. Since warm air is less dense than cold air, a ball will travel further at 70° than at 55° and game temperature in Boston is projected to be at 45°. A heavy air due to precipitation is also a factor and while Boston could surely win by 2 or more, the conditions on the East Coast tonight has me laying off these games. I would be shocked to see high scoring games on the East Coast tonight. Best of luck.
Apr 28, 2014 21:29:28
Sherwood I will post this when minny is up 1 to 0 so you can't say I messaged after the fact. I've been following you for a while now and have seen several 2 unit and the occasional 3 unit play. But seldom do I see a four unit play like I did with the wild on the series. Back that up w another 2 unit play tonight and it's a six unit play on the wild. Is this a possible way to chase losses as it's been a rough ride this year. Can we see more four unit plays in the bear future?
Steve
Actually Steve it hasn't been that rough this year, especially if you toss out the Olympics. In any case, your point is valid, as I rarely, rarely play anything above 2 units, let alone 4. However, I've also watched every minute of every game of the COL/MIN series and know that Colorado has been so lucky. Over time, luck does not hold up. I was extremely confident in Minnesota's chances of taking the series to a 7th game with a win tonight and thus decreasing the risk should they win tonight in regulation. It's not a chase. I bet it myself for 2 units tonight and 4 units in the series with a possible opportunity to buy some Colorado back in Game 7 if the odds allow me to. Don't expect many 4 unit plays in the future. I honestly trust that my reads on these games have been very good but my luck has not. I've lost 4 games this playoff year with a one goal or 2-goal lead with under 5 minutes remaining in regulation. That's a 16 unit swing. I have never felt more confident in a team as I did when I took the Wild tonight.
Apr 26, 2014 17:45:55
Sherwood, Just wanted to tell you that your MLB write-ups are awesome, some of the best stuff anywhere. Really appreciate you posting these daily. Continued success.
Biz
Thanks Biz, appreciate you saying so.
Apr 25, 2014 17:58:46
Thanks Bill. Actually I am on a sabbatical but have been a pro bettor for several years before that. Value will be value whether it is ML or PL. Absolutely you will sweat some empty nets just the nature of it. A true value bet on the ML on an underdog permits only a scalp if you wish to get out of the bet for a profit. But a PL bet allows either a scalp of the PL for a profit OR play back the ML on the favourite at the reduced price after the line move and go for the middle. Plenty of one goal games to go around there is no fluke to that but of course the middle is just an extra option. Go Dallas!
skeeter
I'm with you Skeeter.
Apr 25, 2014 12:20:03
How are you feeling on Dallas? Tough breaks for you on the Jackets just bad timing. You don't bet dog puck lines but they are 4 out of 4 and are a gold mine so far. No doubt you are making good plays but no rewards. Just wondering if you put foot down on Dallas as series bet is not enough units to win on them IMO if they are right side.
skeeter
Actually, we had the Jackets last game @ +126 so that was good. There is too much value on CBJ to pass up so I'll continue to back them. I'm feeling real good about both Chicago and Dallas. Not betting Dallas tonight because I have them in series but they have momentum and Anaheim's goaltending is becoming an issue. I'm not in favor of a team that isn't sure of who is in net and Boudreau has always been that way. As for taking +1½ pucks. no, in my opinion it's the worst bet you can make in all of sports because not only are you laying heavy juice, but if your team is down a goal late they pull the goalie, which results in an empty net goal to kill you about 50% of the time. It has worked out in this series so far but it's a high risk with a low reward and that's a wager I'm not interested in. Bust of luck Skeeter and thanks for the encouraging words.
Apr 22, 2014 11:41:27
Games like Pitt/Columbus sometimes makes me wonder why I didn't find another hobby. I really liked the Jackets in that spot.Tough loss. Come back strong.
Len
It's just so difficult to predict the outcome of any game and that's why I stress playing value. Columbus had an opportunity but completely blew it and they didn't play well either. How can they take that many penalties in a game of that magnitude? Didn't foresee that coming at all. Three minutes in, it looked like the play of the day. That changed quickly. Thanks for the words of encouragement.
Apr 18, 2014 18:06:01
Win or lose the pick should not count for this column. Should we just assume to play the other side of your pick if it goes to overtime going forward?
Marty B.
Had that pick lost and I didn't include it, I'd have 500 people complaining. Of course you should not assume anything. The line dictates the play in many instances. For instance, had St. Louis been -150 in OT, I would not have played it because I would be putting myself in a net loss situation. By betting St. Louis @ -103, it tuned it into a no loss, no win situation. Use your own judgement and wager accordingly. I take this stuff seriously. I don't do it for fun. When I can save a bet, I will because if affects my bottom line. Furthermore, it also educates others that have the same options as I do to make a smart wager when it's available.
Apr 18, 2014 16:24:30
It is kind of ridiculous you post a pick than post the change on twitter placing a live action play. How are we supposed to follow you. This seems kind of desperate and seems like you are trying to manipulate your record. Confused
Mark
It's no manipulation at all. The play could have lost just as easily as it won. I was merely giving those that wanted, the option of coming back and saving a bet, just like I did. It was the smart move because OT is such a coin toss and I made the bet myself so why not share? Many handicappers that share information do exactly the same thing, that being betting live and sharing the info. If it's going to benefit the bottom line, I'll do it every time.
Apr 18, 2014 09:51:01
Sherwood, I thought you played Chicago last night, but on the historical picks it shows St.Louis?
Dave
Indeed I did Dave and I have updated that Chicago play. The St. Louis wager was tweeted before the start of OT here: https://twitter.com/sportswagers3/status/456988633560776704
Apr 17, 2014 17:21:16
Any lean on the Minn/Colo series ? Want to take the Avs but don't like what the betting market is telling me.
Len
What is the market telling you? If you see the number coming down, suggesting money coming in on the Wild, to me that's a better sign than it going up. Aside from that, I agree that Colorado should win, as they are simply the superior team. However, Minnesota plays outstanding defense and is frustrating to play against. They are capable of winning those 2-1 playoff-like games and that scares me. I'm gong to watch Game 1 and see what type of personality that series takes on and perhaps play individual games throughout.
Apr 16, 2014 11:25:12
Great NHL write-ups. My gut respectfully disagrees with Tampa in the series play, but your rationale for taking them at a short price in the series cannot be argued. I really wanted to pull trigger on the Jays tonight (and may still on the run line) BUT, I find myself leaning over. San Diego likely winner too, but juice has me backing off. Best of luck in the playoffs!
Magus
Thanks Magus. I was looking at Jays too, as Pelfrey is so bad but Dickey has been so hit and miss that I can't trust him at a price. Agree with San Diego but you can't lay 1½ runs at that park and expect a positive return over time. Best of luck to you too.
Apr 13, 2014 10:22:22
Sherwood, I'm surprised that you are taking a pass on the Islanders at -1/2 +130 this afternoon. The injury riddled Sabres took a further hit yesterday with the loss of four regulars to injury including Christian Ehrhoff. Now they will likely turn to ECHL call-up Conor Knapp, who ranks 5th or 6th on the organizational depth chart, to man the net against a warm Islanders team. To me, this is the best play on today's board and a final chance to cash in against one of the weakest lineups to ever skate as an NHL team.
BakeMcBride
Final game of season and you just really don't know what frame of mind these teams will be in. You make a good case for the Islanders Bake but for me it's just too risky, especially with the Islanders extremely shaky goaltending. Much prefer them as a pooch. Still, I wish you the best of luck and give you props for sending this BEFORE the game has started. GO ISLANDERS!
Apr 6, 2014 18:56:06
I cannot believe these clowns coming on and ripping you. It's a free service! Don't let it bother you the world is full of a##holes. Keep up the good work, most people appreciate it. I always read your articles and although I don't always agree, I find your insights helpful, thank you.
Steve
Thank you Steve. I appreciate the support.
Apr 6, 2014 12:11:27
Sherwood, I am starting to follow the ponies this year to spice things up and ran across your website. Curious what your final unit count was that you placed on Lt. Bickett.
Petey Pablo
It was a no bet Petey because we always state the maximum odds we'll lay and in this case the odds were never low enough for us to step in on.
Apr 6, 2014 10:42:38
Sherwood, I was wondering if you were going to start posting 1st 5 bets again this year. The Mets seem to be a prime target today, Niese on a pitch count and the Mets bullpen is not something you want to rely on. And I think you are spot on with Shields, he will be glad he`s in a weak division and pitches at a pitchers park.
Pete
Pete: You really bring up a valid point and it's something that must be considered. Niese and the Mets most certainly appear to be better suited in five today than a full game but it's one of those tricky things that can drive you crazy. My philosophy will be to either bet them all in the first five or none of them. As long as things are going well, I will continue to play the full game but if and when the games turn against me, I will scale back to five innings. That said, that's just a personal preference but if you trust the Mets in 5 only, go with your instincts. Thanks for writing and bringing up this alternative option. Best of luck Pete.
Apr 6, 2014 10:04:11
You helped establish a lack of faith in him last season so I faded Colon in his first start vs. Gio and the Nats (success!). He looks like a giant bag of potatoes in a baseball uniform.
Magus
Nice Magus. Indeed, Colon was a fade target last year and I was tempted also to fade him in first start but he was too big a dog for my liking. I've got a couple more fade targets on my radar this season. Stay tuned.
Apr 5, 2014 09:42:03
Guthrie is still a stiff. Can't wait for the next Bartolo call.
trapper53
LOL, I hear ya trapper. Guthrie is a stiff and you know for sure I'm watching for an opportunity to fade Colon.
Apr 1, 2014 17:26:21
Well said Dave L. Keep up the hard work Sherwood and let's get this turned around!!! Look forward to your picks every day. Thank you.
John
Thanks John, I appreciate the time you took to send a note.
Mar 31, 2014 23:22:55
I just wanted to take a moment to express my appreciation to you after reading quite a few negative comments directed your way over the past few weeks. I'm an ex-school teacher in my mid-fifties and I love the NFL but really have discovered over the past few years a love of sports wagering. You've been a big part of that. In the long evenings here in Toronto it's very entertaining to do some internet homework on the evening's games and then take a little action to make them more fun to watch. I've been reading your stuff for years Sherwood. I regret it If I ever have to miss it. Your greatest quality in my opinion is the thoroughness with which you do your work. It's refreshing to hear your take on an event, regardless of the outcome. I still can't figure out why you provide the quality service you do, while others charge hundreds a week for info that does not compare to yours. You have been red hot way more times than ice cold over the years, which is a testament to your shrewd insight. Although you have a special talent, you make the average bettor smarter by teaching how to read between the lines of data. I hope I meet you sometime. I owe you more than a beer. For those of us who can bet within our means, you've made a potentially shady pastime into what is almost a logic puzzle, enjoyable every night of the week. Those that complain and criticize a quality free service like yours are just people that will always be miserable in life and just constantly look for things to put down. Please don't take it personally Sherwood, for you have made all of us more aware over the years with your keen knowledge and understanding of betting markets and passing that knowledge to us. All the best, Sherwood and keep up the great work. BTW. I also love the MLB call-up section and fantasy football pickup wire that you added last year.
Dave L.
Thanks so very much Dave and it's comments like yours that motivate me to work even harder when things aren't going well. You made my day, Thank you again.
Mar 31, 2014 21:10:57
The casual, recreational gambler will always lose more than they win. Sherwood is a pro and has years of records to back that up. All he is doing for those who follow is presenting the best "value" picks that are available on a given day. He makes no "guarantees" because there are no such things in the world of sports gambling.
BakeMcBride
Thank you Bake. I really do appreciate the support. Nobody is more frustrated than myself when things aren't going well because I genuinely bet every game I post.
Mar 31, 2014 16:21:06
To James: This site doesn't charge but makes money from referrals to books ( usually a percentage of losses) just like any of the forums do. It exists for that reason. You are right about money management though, a follower here should win over time if sticking to these picks but will usually blow it betting their own stuff, parlaying, overbetting and so on. There is a reason this site has links to books. That is because most people will lose money even given picks that win over time. The 50 ish units down is an awful stretch and I think a follower or any gambler should reduce his bet size if he started following on 1/1/14 and now has lost half his stake ( say $10,000 is now $5,000) risking $200 a bet to start with or 2%, now that $200 is 4% which is too much 1% is even better to reduce chances of going broke. Sherwood says unit size should never change, I disagree. If you don't change it then you get down 100 units your bankroll is now gone. I don't get the two unit bets either. If almost all bets are 2 units, then 2 units is essentially one unit.
Louis
Louis: If you read my "unit betting" article, you misinterpreted it because I did not say, "unit size should never change". I said the value of a unit remains the same, that never changes. It goes on to say, "all you need to do is decide what percentage of your bankroll you are willing to risk on a single game and convert that to a dollar figure. You now have the value of one betting unit and that value remains the same. The number of units you bet changes but the value of a unit does not. Just wanted to clear that up. Thanks for writing
Mar 31, 2014 13:58:11
There is one thing that has become clearly evident to me, the people that come on here angry and disrespectful towards Sherwood are very poor cappers. They come on here, don't do any research on their own, just follow his picks, probably don't follow a smart money management plan, so are losing a lot more units then they should be. They then come on here and make complete fools of themselves by leaving you a message full of absolutely nonsense. So listen up idiots, LEARN how to cap your own games. Just use this site as a helpful tool. This is a FREE site. Sherwood does NOT have to run this site, it's just up to help people out. I am astonished when I read some of these comments towards this man.
James
Thank you James. Amen.
Mar 31, 2014 12:40:11
What happened to the update on TB or TB over 5.5 ? You put both picks out dependent on starting goalie. Bishop started but no book lets you list goalies. To follow your picks one would kind of have to place both bets right before gametime. I think it should be two losses recordwise because a follower might have bet both since he doesn't know which one is the bet. You had Bishop as probable but no two red stars.
Louis
Like we stated Louis, we were only going to bet it one way or the other and we were aware that Bishop was starting during the pregame warm-ups about a half hour before game time. Anyone that pulled the trigger prior to knowing this info did so on their own accord.
Mar 31, 2014 11:49:35
Your response to Steve was typical, your are indeed rude, and furthermore you cry and whine about "bad beats" when your selections lose, which lately, is most of the time. So put away your crack pipe and get with reality.
Milton
Hmmmm, that's interesting.
Mar 30, 2014 21:24:04
I do not know how you continue to be rude to your followers who write in comments. If they were following you they would be stuck a bundle. Instead of apologizing and admitting your mistakes you continue to post picks with such confidence and arrogance. You keep speaking of your winning seasons and the past. Good luck getting out of this hole.
Steve
Steve: I'm not sure who you are referring to when you say I'm rude because I'm extremely appreciative to anyone that takes the time to write in. What I don't tolerate is someone writing me after a game is final and telling me how bad a choice it was. Furthermore, this is a free site. I ask for nothing, not even your email address or a requirement to sign up. In 13 years, I have had 11 winning seasons overall so when you say people are down a "bundle" you are talking about a small sample size over three months this year and 40 units or so is not a bundle. Lastly, I hold a gun to nobody's head. What you do with the information is completely up to you. I try my hardest to find value, provide quality information and share it with those that are interested. I don't make excuses when things are going bad and I don't gloat when things are going well. I give no guarantees other than I work my butt off to provide this information. Sorry if that's not enough for you.
Mar 30, 2014 15:12:17
I'm happy to have baseball back. My (very) basic, personal rule is to only play money line on home teams (never more than -120 juice) and + money on run-line visitors. I've been burned umpteen hundred times by betting the r/l home team and losing on the walk-off single run victory.
Magus
Best of luck Magus, not sure I agree with only playing home teams + money or up to -120 but if it works for you than I would not change it either.
Mar 29, 2014 11:16:59
Malkin was ruled out (2-3 weeks), following the game in which he was injured. For a line to go form +245 to +180, there had to be something much more significant behind the lines.... Or maybe we see some favourable lines on every one of the picks...
Phil
Indeed Phil, one could speculate until they are blue in the face without really knowing why. Whatever the case, the oddsmakers overvalued the Penguins on that day and we were able to take advantage. It happens. Thanks for writing.
Mar 28, 2014 19:40:32
Yeah, win or lose, you're going with the best of it with these plays. If Kentucky loses by 5+ I'll be shocked.
Magus
Exactly Magus, you have to play value because there is no crystal ball in the world that can predict the stuff we see every day. Michigan misses a free throw with 2 seconds left otherwise they cover and that's the difference between a win and a loss. That's not an unusual outcome, as it happens all the time and in 85-90% of these games, you are either lucky or you are not and that's why one must look for value, play it and let the chips fall. Onto tomorrow!
Mar 28, 2014 14:16:39
I love the Flyers and Hawks plays today. Chicago also has a very attractive 11-1-3 record in the second half of back-to-back contests.
Brandon
Great point Brandon. Thanks for chipping in.
Mar 25, 2014 14:04:22
Phx +245 over Pitts. I see +183 at Pinny. Could the line move that much ?
Fuzzy
Yeah, as soon as Malkin was ruled out, the line dropped quickly.
Mar 24, 2014 09:52:01
Sherwood, I absoultely love reading your write-ups. They are typically spot on, even if the games don't end up going in your favour. There are soo many people that just do not understand what it takes to be successful at handicapping sports. Unfortunately many of them check out this site and end up writing to you. It is all about money management and value, and most have a hard time grasping that. You do a great job sir, and we all appreciate it. Thanks
James
James: Thank you so very much for taking the time to write. Your words of encouragement and gratitude mean more than you know. I put my heart and soul into this and it's nice that people like yourself recognize the effort and time that goes into it. Thank you again. You made my day.
Mar 22, 2014 19:42:04
They threw the bait you took it. Say goodbye to the Rangers Devils under. Split at best.
Marty B
I just love guys that write me with 10 minutes left in the game. You're a real genius Marty B. One thing I've learned after 13 years of posting plays...Guys that write me when the game is final are a perfect 475-0. Idiot. You know, a guy Tweeted me this afternoon, BEFORE the Philly/St. Louis game and said he thought I had it wrong. He made a couple of good points but at LEAST he had the balls to write me before the game and make a constructive opinion. Unlike you, whom deserves a big fat ZERO in regards to respect. IDIOT. Had you wrote me with that comment before the game, you would have received some props. Writing me late in the third period reveals how idiotic a comment it really is and what a coward you really are. Now BUZZ OFF.
Mar 22, 2014 06:15:11
When is the draft going to start for the ball pool?
Baseball pool
We're drafting on Saturday, one week from today. Because our season ends in early September, the Arizona/Dodgers series will have no affect on our pool. You will get the required games in if you have any players from those teams.
Mar 6, 2014 22:08:01
Sherwood : Not too cool to release Colorado as a pick then erase it. You should at least have to buy it back and eat some vig on it, like anybody else would to get off a bet, IMO ! NHL is not MLB with listed pitchers/ or goalies......but I can't list goalies as if it was baseball. Game is being played now, but that is not the point....An accurate record would eat some juice when getting off of a bet where you can't list terms like starting goalies.
Fuzzy
Fuzzy, You are so right. I actually did have to buy it back and I did at a small loss of 0.02 units. Rarely does it happen because I usually wait for confirmation on goalies before releasing it when I think it's an issue but in this case I did not because I didn't figure for a second that Colorado would use Giggy. Your point is valid and will be incorporated from now on. Thanks for writing.
Mar 2, 2014 13:29:14
Sherwood: Thanks for your explanation. I have a further question. If you post your horse plays, are you not making it harder to get your own bets matched ? I can't use Betfair as an American but I used to play at Matchbook when that was an option. I wouldn't post the picks until my own bet was filled, if I was you. I have no idea how fast these bets get filled. Nice comeback from being down 50 units, I'm sure you'll be + units on the year very soon.
Fuzzy
No, no at all Fuzzy. There is so much liquidity at Betfair that you're bets get matched almost instantly if they are within reason. In fact, most races have over 50,000 in liquid and in races in Australia and Dubai for instance, that liquid is in the 100's of thousands. The same is true for sports. Every NBA and NFL game has over $500,000 in in liquid in live betting during the game. Thanks for writing Fuzzy and for the vote of confidence.
Mar 1, 2014 11:32:19
Sherwood: How can you bet these horses with the conditions you make when you don't know what the odds will end up at ? I don't think it is realistic to say "NO BET" unless odds are at a certain level since it is out of our control. Obviously we can't post the exact odds, as they change in real time but we will update it once the race is official. We’re risking 1 unit to win approx. 3½ units for Bajheera to finish out of the money and .40 units for him to NOT win. We’re also going to state the highest odds that we’ll play him at otherwise it will be a no bet. For these bets to stand, Bahjeera must be under 3-1 to win and under 35 cents on the dollar to finish out of the money.
Fuzzy
It's a bit tricky Fuzzy. At Betfair, you can set your own odds. For instance, I will go in and lay the bet at 40 cents to finish out of the money and at 3-1 to lose. Obviously, if they are less than that in real time, I will bet it at less. So when I go in to Betfair, I click the pink box and enter MY odds. When I click the pink box, on the right of the screen, the odds will come up for that particular horse. I enter let's say $100 in the amount and I also enter 1.40 (which is .40 because you always take away 1 point)in the odds box and I then click place bet. If someone matches it, I'm on and if they don't then the bet will not be placed. YOU CAN SET YOUR ODDS AT BETFAIR and it may or may not be matched so you have absolute complete control over the odds you are willing to lay.
Feb 28, 2014 00:38:18
Hi Sherwood... interesting to see you added horses. I like horse racing but find it too difficult to show a profit most days. On top of the huge takeout, people have to buy the form when stats are freely available for other sports. Do you recommend one type of wager over another (eg. win betting vs Pick 3, etc) ? I was intrigued by laying favourites when trying betfair but still think it's too difficult due to the poor payout. You're getting anywhere from 1/2 to 1/4 of a return on your wager (or less in some cases). You could have a nice winning streak of 6-7 bets but all it takes is 1-2 losing ones to wipe out most of the gains. You'll need a very good strike rate to stay profitable. What might be better is laying a favourite to run out of the money. A well backed favourite could be priced at 1.20 to come first, second or third, making that a fairly affordable lay. On big race days like the Breeders' Cup I've seen some heavy favourites falter and they are priced like a stone cold lock to at least finish 3rd. Anything can happen!
Kevin
Kevin: No question that you have to bet against short priced horses at no more than 3-1 or like you say, to finish out of the money. These big favorites that are cheap claimers at Parx, Tampa Bay, etc, very often finish out. Also, like you say, big stakes races where almost every horse is legit has upsets all the time. In terms of the form, click on Horse Racing on our home page, which will take you to our picks and I'm going to provide a link to free forms that are available at almost every track every day.
Feb 27, 2014 17:30:53
With the inclusion of horse exchange bets, am I to conclude that Betfair is open in Canada again?
Turfmonster
Actually Turf, they have never stopped accepting Canadian customers, they just stopped their marketing in Canada. Betfair has always been open for Canadians. I should know, I've been wagering with them for years and have never stopped. I just started the horse racing trading about 6 months ago and it's lucrative to take action on horses. I'm trying to get people to use it and get familiar with it because there is lots of money to be made and the best part is that the house has no risk, so they don't care if you win. If you or anyone has questions about this, please let me know.
Feb 26, 2014 17:47:03
Hey Sherwood, you're a class act in the way you handle losing streaks and the snarky comments coming from the not so classy acts. I've been reading your picks for years and both admire and appreciate your tireless efforts to help others make money! Anyone with a head on their shoulders respects your efforts, win or lose. Keep up the great work, your consistency and persistency will be a benefit to all in the long run!
Smitty
Thanks very much Smitty. I really appreciate the time you took to write.
Feb 26, 2014 16:29:23
If you don't like his picks, make your own site and write up your picks. Do research and do it yourself. It's funny how people complain about free advice, get a grip.
JazzP
I understand that losing money brings out the worst in people and I can take the heat. Thanks for writing Jazz.
Feb 26, 2014 12:11:36
I've been following Sherwood for years and this has got to be the worst stretch he's had in that time. Spring can't come soon enough, as he's very good at finding value on the diamond and has had some good success in the Stanley Cup playoffs. Stay off the pitch, Sherwood. From my experience, betting on soccer is a money pit.
BakeMcBride
I'm beginning to believe that is true in Soccer Bake. Not going to give it too much more time. Again, thanks SOOO much for the kind words at this time. I truly do appreciate the time u took to write and for the support.
Feb 26, 2014 10:35:13
Damn you have bad picks
Ryan
Can't argue with that Ryan. Check back in a month.
Feb 25, 2014 18:13:34
Do you really bet on what you have posted? i looked at your NBA and Soccer bets in particular and they're not even close to .500...no offense...but might be good to fade your plays for a while...
Vinnie
No offense taken Vinnie. We're on a bad run and fading can work from time to time.
Feb 16, 2014 11:14:44
Sherwood, you've rescued me from a few dry spells and I'd like to attempt to return the favour. I know you don't like to lay pucks and juice, but Canada -1.5 -117 is too good to pass up. Canada should be motivated to win this game by multiple goals to improve their seeding. Finland is ripe for the picking as they aren't at full strength due to injuries and aren't getting the best from Tukka Rask this tournament.
BakeMcBride
Feb 13, 2014 00:22:33
Hi Sherwood...just reading the Slovakia vs USA writeup for tomorrow. I'm amazed the US team left off Yandle and Ryan. But then again, this is the brain trust that also left off Kyle Okposo. That might be the most brutal omission of all. Slovaks should be a live dog...good luck with the rest of the tourney.
Kevin
Actually Kevin, you are so right about Okposo . I meant to mention him but forgot to so I'm glad you did. Okposo is 6th in the NHL in scoring ahead of guys like Malkin, Sharp, Seguin and Backstrom and just a point behind Ovechkin. Ridiculous that he was left off. Biggest snub of the entire tournament. Good luck to you too and thanks for writing.
Feb 12, 2014 18:07:59
Excellent work on the Olympic combo today. Sweden and the over was easy money. Identifying value plays like these is what makes this site essential for players everywhere. Keep 'em coming!
BakeMcBride
LOL, Thanks Bake. Not sure if it was "easy" money but the value was most certainly on the over, which hit early in the second. Thanks for writing and hopefully we can keep it going tomorrow
Feb 12, 2014 01:56:49
How do I bet the winner of 2015 Super Bowl now - any help would be appreciated
Taximan
Many sportsbooks already have lines posted for next year's Super Bowl winner in their NFL section under "futures". Pinnacle Sports usually has the best lines available so click on any banner from this site to take you there, open an account, fund it and make your wager. Best of luck.
Feb 5, 2014 21:00:57
You ever do any wagering on golf? Specifically, I like 2-ball matchups. Golf is one of those sports where it seems like on any given day or under the right circumstances heavy "underdogs" can really pay off. I rarely play a favorite and have seen success fading Tiger over the years. Any other thoughts on golf wagering?
J A
JA: Personally I do not wager because I don't follow it closely enough. However, like every sport, I'm sure there are great opportunities and big overlays from week to week in those heads up match-ups and tournament odds. Keep doing what you're doing.
Feb 4, 2014 01:08:50
Hey Sherwood Like Winston I too have been following for years. The NHL information is the best tool for me. I try to do my research and see if I match you in the morning. Not to often. That's why I'm thankful for your time also. By the way, I made a couple extra units recently with the same plays. Playing only 60min reg on some dogs has work well. A couple of weeks back +245 on the Jets as one. Hate shootouts and hope they eliminate those. Also Frustrating as hell those late goals. Keep up the GREAT work bro. David
David
David: Thanks so much for taking the time to write. I think a lot of folks are getting tired of shootouts and I agree, it is time for the NHL to do something about it. Playing those dogs in regulation and spotting a half puck is something I'm keeping track of this year and you may see me using it more often after the Olympic break. There is great value in those for sure. Thanks again David for the well-wishes, support and kind words.
Feb 3, 2014 06:57:31
Hey Sherwood, nice response to that last guy. Give us an update on the "challenge". Great call on the SB and BTW, I've been following you for years and although I don't follow you every game, the lessons learned about the sports betting markets have been invaluable. I have made money for 6 years now following your guidelines and can't thank you enough for this free website. It's more than a website, it's a learning tool for all of us young guys. Peace out Bro.
Winston
Thanks Winston. I appreciate the time you took to write. I put a lot of work into this site and have no time for idiots that don't understand the time it takes to research and write up games. However, messages like yours mean more than you know and keeps me motivated. All the best.
Feb 1, 2014 22:10:07
Ho Hum another losing day for sherwood. You can call me what you want a child but I have been doing this alot longer than you have and I gurantte I wager more than you. You can continue too get your friends to write in to make it look good . Hey I am happy you keep posting picks. I will continue to fade. You can't post 7 games a day and expect your people to win.
Insider
Sir: I mean Insider or whoever you are. First, let me say how much in awe I am of you for "betting" more than me. You beast. Secondly, I guarantee you have not been doing this longer than me (I'm 54) unless you are around 60 years old, which is highly unlikely because somebody that old would never write a message like the one you just sent. Thirdly, I have been doing this site since 2001 and have had one losing year, documented so if you've been fading me for 13 years, you have lost three houses. Lastly, you are another one of these geniuses that write me when the game's are final. As anyone who has been gambling for as long as you have should know, losing streaks are inevitable and to write me when the games are final and when I'm on a bad run confirms indeed that you are a child. So, how about this bigshot: We put up 5000.00 each in an escrow account and you choose the sport for an entire season. $5000.00 is nothing to a big shooter like yourself. We'll document it on my site for everyone to see and the winner takes it down. Good luck with the fade.
Jan 29, 2014 13:47:10
Like the Islanders pick tonight...the value is surely with them. I think missing Travis Hamonic from their lineup has really hurt their defence though...he's still out and could be a big part of whether they make the playoffs or not.
Kevin
Thanks Kevin: This NHL season is getting a little frustrating because I feel I have such a good read on these teams but haven't had a really good run all year. Hopefully one is forthcoming. Even without Hamonic, I agree with you, value is still on the Isles. Thanks for writing and best of luck.
Jan 28, 2014 13:32:45
Instead of just complaining I will put myself out there. For the record, here are my soccer picks for 01/28/14: ENGLISH PREMIERSHIP LIVERPOOL vs Everton; OVER 3 @ 1.95 SOUTHAMPTON vs Arsenal; OVER 2.5 @ 2.11 Newcastle (PK @ 2.08) over NORWICH ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP: Huddersfield (+0.5 @ 1.90) over BOURNEMOUTH QPR (-0.75 @ 1.91) over Bolton DERBY (-1.25 @ 1.95) over Yeovil All lines from Pinnacle
Mark
Best of luck Mark.
Jan 28, 2014 13:20:40
So many opportunities in English soccer today. I have my picks ready to go and have actually pulled the trigger on them but like to read other viewpoints. Disappointed to see nothing here with a huge slate of games in England today.
Mark
Mark: We will have soccer covered with many selections over the coming months in the English leagues and we urge you to be patient and come back often. Thanks for writing and best of luck today with your selections.
Jan 25, 2014 07:41:38
Spot on with those NBA games last night! Love your write-ups. Appreciate you posting.
J A
Thanks JA.
Jan 20, 2014 13:32:53
Just wondering : Brian : What is your policy on betting parlays ? Thanks : Looking forward to your reply : Your silent daily follower .Mr. W. Baxter
Mr. William Baxter
WB: I'm all about value and true odds. ML parlays offer true odds when you are taking back + money in all of them, therefore they are not an edge to the house. In other words, they are good value wagers. On the other hand, The ACTUAL odds of hitting a 3-teamer is 7-1. Based on normal -110, TRUE odds payout is indeed 5.96-1. So the 6-1 FIXED odds from your bookie is slightly better than TRUE odds. However, since the ACTUAL odds = 7-1 and your bookie pays 6-1, the house is capturing 12.5%, thus rendering them poor wagers. A three-team parlay for $20 with + money in all of them, (e.g. +115 +130 +120 would pay +197.58. Take off your 20 original bet and you have a net profit of 177.58. or about 8.89-1, thus rendering them good value at true odds. In short, don't bet parlays unless all teams offer +100 or more.
Jan 15, 2014 15:58:11
Brian, just wondering what your record for super bowl picks is for the last several years ? (say last 10 yrs,i need a winner this year)
paul
LOL, No guarantees Paul. I'm 7-3 over the past 10 Super Bowls including three in a row. Going for 4.
Jan 8, 2014 22:31:50
I had to step away from your picks to concentrate on college football the past few months, but I stepped back in today just in time to play your two college basketball games and one NBA (missed the soccer game). 3-0 is a great night! I'm usually mentally drained after college football season (I went 100-70-1 documented on the season) and so I like to take what you give me and just relax. I'm really looking forward to following you in MLB this season, but congrats on your other sports as well.
SoonerBS
Thanks Sooner. Timing is everything. Yesterday I went 1-3. Thanks Man, appreciate the support.
Jan 8, 2014 11:23:13
Just wondering who posts the soccer comments, and if this is a new addition to your team Sherwood.
Steve
Steve: Yes, he is a new addition to the site and his name is Jordan M Willis. You can read about him in the "About Us" section of this website. You can also follow him on Twitter: @JMWillis01
Jan 6, 2014 17:19:34
Thanks for the soccer winner on Villereal, Sherwood. I know it's early, but I cheated and took them @+175 for the first half. They're up now 3-0 and I hope that holds up for you for the game. Good luck to us tonight with FSU.
Bill
Nice one Bill and thanks for taking the time to write.
Jan 6, 2014 12:28:27
I've only bet soccer a couple of times on your recommendation, so I'm still trying to understand the betting. I think I've seen this before, and I'm using Bovada, but they have Villereal @ +105 when including draws (which would be a loss, I think), then they have Villeral - 1/2. I don't understand why both are posted? They seem to be the same to me. Isn't your play the same as laying -1/2? TIA.
Bill
Yes Bill, it is exactly the same. Take the best line available because they are precisely the same thing. Best of luck.
Jan 4, 2014 12:56:32
I generally agree with most of your observations, but this one is bit of a hyperbole: "Marty Brodeur is the only thing preventing the Devils from elite status..." Have you considered that their inability to score goals is also a major impediment to them being ranked with the likes of Chicago, Pittsburgh, Boston, St. Louis and San Jose? I am a fan of the Devils and admit that Brodeur needs to hang up the skates, but I am also of the mind that the team, as it is currently constituted, fails to rank among the best even if you take Marty out of the equation. All you need to do is look at Schneider's record and see that even he can't lift them beyond their impotence on offence. Great team defence makes them competitive in most games; an inability to consistently light the lamp has prevented the team from winning them.
John P.
It's more than that John. Those soft goals that prevent a team from winning has a carry over effect. Work your ass off, lose and be rewarded with Brodeur in net again. The Devils are scoring more lately and they are on the verge of elite status but Brodeur is preventing it, in my humble opinion. I understand what you're saying and appreciate the time you took to write but I don't agree that "Great team defence makes them competitive in most games; an inability to consistently light the lamp has prevented the team from winning them. Brodeur has constantly prevented them from winning them.
Jan 3, 2014 15:11:29
Feel free to post if I'm wrong as I write this before the game. Chiefs best win this year is against who ? An early season win against Philly with Vick at QB is my guess. Colts have beaten Seattle and Denver at home as well as SF on the road. No team in football has three more impressive wins although I will admit there have been some disturbing losses. I'll take the team who has played the far tougher schedule at home with the better QB.
Len
No question current form and home field favors the Colts but if you're a regular reader and I'm assuming you are, then you know that form is only 1 criteria I use. I put much more weight on the fact that the money is coming in on the Colts yet the line is moving the other way. For me, that dictates the play and smart money is on the Chiefs. I could be wrong also but I doubt it.
Dec 31, 2013 18:26:04
Great call on these bowl games, you are right on, now need your best NFL playoff handicapping, you are feeling it keep it going,
Tim G
Thanks Tim, appreciate the support and you will always get my best effort.
Dec 31, 2013 14:08:02
Terrible write-up on the Pens. You're gasping for ways to back up your pick when you state team totals over/under odds.
ST
Another genius that writes me when the score is 2-0 for New Jersey. Write me before the game starts dude cause from my experience, people are 550-0 when the game is final.
Dec 30, 2013 17:35:14
Great job capping bowl games this year. Honestly, can't thank you enough Sherwood. You're write ups have been spot on. All the best in the new year.
Bowen808
Thanks Bowen. We appreciate the kind words and support
Dec 23, 2013 22:57:11
Just wanted to say thanks for the Christmas present. I parlayed your 3 NHL picks today all in regulation - only for +1600.
Ben
Nice one Ben. Glad you cashed. Merry X-Mas.
Dec 20, 2013 16:05:12
Had a $100 on blue jacks @130 vs. phil . B.J. up 3 too zip .Placed a $5 live wager 20 to 1 wager on philly @ bet365 .Do you have strategy on live betting .The little insurance policy saved my butt.
Trapper53
Trapper: The question becomes is it a winning proposition over time? Usually when the books offer exotic wagers, it's not in your favor and while it worked out for you last night, it would have to work out once in 20 times for you to break even to that bet. To take it even further, the Flyers last comeback from a 3-goal 3rd period deficit was back in 1998, 15 years ago. They've trailed by 3 goals entering the third period in 96 games over those 15 years and last night was the first time since '98 that they came back to win it. Had you risked $5 in every one of those games to make $100, you would have lost 95 x 5 which is $475 and won 100 for a net loss of -$375. Although it looked good at the time, the math says it's a bad bet.
Dec 20, 2013 09:38:52
Ouch !!!
Ed
You hit the nail on the head Ed. Ouch is right.
Dec 18, 2013 09:45:46
man u r on a roll in NHL picks!!! nailed all three last night
Hari
Thanks Hari, it's just one night and it's always great to sweep the board but we're grinders over here and will continue to grind out the season while continuing to look for undervalued and overvalued teams. Hopefully we can keep this going for awhile. Thanks for taking the time to write.
Dec 17, 2013 23:26:11
Awesome NCAAB pick today. I look forward to those fairly unknown team plays.
Trent
Thanks Trent, I dig deep and try to find a game or two with true value.
Dec 17, 2013 21:59:40
Whoo-hoo! Glad you are printing your picks in Friday, that's awesome news! Now, can we get you to get back to posting picks on all NFL plays??? :) Like Randall does, his 3 plays and his 13 'no bets but if I had to pick ..." :) Keep up the great work, we do appreciate it ... (and to allow us to post comments shows your integrity as a capper, kudos)
travis
Thanks Travis. I will do my best to post all games with short write-ups from now to the end of the year. I appreciate the support and always listen to what readers suggest or recommend.
Dec 16, 2013 16:56:08
any chance you could go back to posting your NFL picks on Friday - many of us use you as a reference for our office pools, and sunday morning doesnt do any of us any good as pool deadlines are friday or saturday ... keep up the good work, i faithfully follow your picks every day (though i do fade you from time to time ;) cheers
travis
Travis: We've had this request a few times and beginning this week, we will once again post our NFL plays on Friday. Thanks for the support Travis. ALSO, Thanks to everyone who sent condolences. I really appreciate it very much.
Dec 13, 2013 10:54:07
Sherwood, thanks for the great insight with your NHL picks. You see the game differently than most and you're usually right.. The teams you said were garbage are garbage and the teams you said were under-priced have been winning lately. Keep up the great work!
K.L.
Thanks K.L for taking the time to write.
Dec 10, 2013 07:35:34
You guys that write in can keep pumping his tires and making him feel good. I will continue to fade and to win. You can keep getting your friends to write in and add comments for you. You can be upset that I write in and say I fade you but its the truth. Going 0 6 is not an easy task. You can call me a kid or dismiss me but I have been doing this a long time. I will continue to track you and see where you are in a couple of months. But for now I am happy with continuing to fade and to keep winning. Thanks keep the picks coming
Insider
There is no way you are fading and winning Insider. The proof is right there. Not only are we up, meaning you are down, but you are laying big prices on the money line, meaning you are down even more than we are up. Say what you want but the proof is in the pudding.
Nov 30, 2013 22:11:04
Your Silent follower :: thanks for your great work . Best Wishes always.
Mr. W. Baxter
You are very welcome. Best wishes to you too and I appreciate the time you took to write.
Nov 30, 2013 09:47:44
Look who is back in the black. You were warned "faders". Simply the best, and most honest tout service on the net. And it's free. Keep up the good work, Sherwood.
BakeMcBride
Thank you for the kind words sir. Like a good team, we never get too high or too low and like the word, those "faders" always fade away, never to be heard from again.
Nov 28, 2013 09:55:37
NHL grading from 11/26/13. It seems you list goalies like they were starting pitchers, I've never seen that option. Your listed goalie did not play but you still got the win credited to your record. How does that work ?
Doug from CT
Doug: You are correct, It is not an option available like starting pitchers in baseball. However, in the game that you are referring to (Ana at Dallas), the confirmed goaltenders were Hiller against Lehtonen. We had no knowledge of Ellis starting because Ruff made the change just before the puck dropped. At that point we had already made our wagers and 7 minutes in with the Ducks ahead 1-0, I tweeted out that our Dallas play stands because we had already made the wager. Yesterday, we posted Ottawa as a pick only if Lehner started but early in the day, about noon, Anderson was confirmed and we tweeted out the pick was not a play and removed it from our site. I hope this clears it up for you.
Nov 28, 2013 09:16:54
Damn, I generally wait to pull trigger until I read your picks, but I feared the Lions line going higher so locked it at -6.5 (it's -7 so at least on that I was correct). A rare time I bet against you but, although your analysis is excellent, my gut feeling has been towards a Lions win by 10 or more all week. If I lose, I have to blame it on overreaction due to my disgust watching Tolzien "quarterback" last Sunday. Flynn better, but we'll see where the chips fall......best of luck Sherwood.
Magus
Thank you Magus. We`ll soon find out but I feel much better taking back points with the Pack than spotting them with the Lions. I could be wrong. Thanks for writing.
Nov 25, 2013 16:37:37
Sherwood's picks are always thoroughly researched and well documented....I am retired, with sports betting as my only current source of income....I check here every day before I pull the trigger.....keep up the great work!
Jeff
Thanks Jeff. I appreciate the kind words, support and acknowledgement. I take this stuff very seriously, as it's my only source of income also and I personally wager on every game I post.
Nov 23, 2013 23:41:41
I own theinsideslant.com sports betting forum going on 7 years. In that time you are one of the very few people that puts your record out there for all to see. I respect your work and honesty you put forth each season. Keep up the good work
JD
JD: Thanks for taking the time to write and say so. I really do appreciate the kind words and acknowledgement.
Nov 15, 2013 11:13:11
Tough to see you getting skewered like this. You are getting some bad beats but keep on doing what you have always done ie. information+situation+gut. I would agree to possibly scale back on the NHL plays for awhile but keep playing your best 3-5 NFL games, things will turn around. Your old pal DH
DH
Thanks for taking the time to write DH. Words of encouragement mean more than you know. Thanks again. We're confident things will turn around soon.
Nov 15, 2013 06:55:45
I wouldn't recommend fading Sherwood to anyone. This tough stretch won't last as his overall numbers attest. However, I will say that right now he is taking too many games each night and lately seems to be trying to be a bit too contrarion - particularly in the NFL. The Packers pick this past Sunday was particularly regrettable. Once he gets out of this funk, expect a long stretch of positive days.
BakeMcBride
Thank you Bake. Man, is this frustrating over the past couple of weeks. Anyway, I appreciate the confidence and will take your advice and cut down on games. For now,we'll pick the best three or four daily, regardless of what sport. Thanks for taking the time to write.
Nov 14, 2013 17:57:15
I've been following you here and on radio for many years and its obvious you put a great deal of time and effort into your picks. I have my own little system and if we agree I play it if we disagree I pass. Simple as that no blame game at all.
Slopitch
Nov 13, 2013 10:49:03
Some of these comments remind me of when I suggested to a friend to fade Scott Diamond because he's terrible. He lost a ridiculous proline parlay on it and actually got mad. I told him bet against him the next start, don't worry about one bet.....Diamond is still garbage but he resented my "bad" advice. Everyone reappears all chipper when they win, but wouldn't post their own record online if their life depended on it.
Magus
Thank you Magus. When you gamble on sports, losing streaks are inevitable. However, at the end of the year, like all years, we will show a profit. A lot of work is put into these picks and we very much appreciate the support and understanding of most of our readers.
Nov 12, 2013 23:38:02
Please do not stop posting your picks fading you is the best systen out there. You are awful 0 and 6 in basketball. You are terrible in hockey. Please keep doing whatever you are doing thank you in advance. The other reader warned you stop going against Brodeur and you still do and lose
Insider
I've received this exact same comment dozens of times. Normally I don't post them because they are from little kids like yourself. If you faded me every play last season you would have lost over 100 units. If you faded me this season every play to a tee, you would be down 25 units so far. After about 2 months of fading me, I never hear from those people again. So let's revisit this in 2 months and let me know how it works out for ya. In fact, what don't you tweet me and reveal yourself so we can track that fade together?
Nov 5, 2013 17:05:48
I'm new to your site and have been watching it for bout a month. I notice practically all your picks are underdogs. why is that? I get why in Hockey and baseball but why football and baskets?
vic kay
VK: We try and look for value, no matter what sport and in football and basketball with the point spread, usually popular teams are overpriced. Teams like the Wizards, Bobcats and Bucks in the NBA don't get a lot of public backing and the oddsmakers have all the data to show that. Therefore, you usually have to pay a premium to wager on teams like the Heat, Spurs, Clippers, Thunder and even the Nets (at the start of this season) and that's something we look to play against. When we see an undervalued favorite, we'll gladly take that position too. Thanks for taking the time to write and for the support. Sherwood
Oct 27, 2013 01:19:15
May I suggest that you stay away from the NJ Devils games for awhile? Your policy of fading them when Brodeur's in the net and backing them when Schneider's name is called has worked out how well so far? Let's see... 0 for 3. No matter which goalie plays, they're still the offensively challenged and defensively stubborn-yet-slow-of-foot team that will lose their lion's share of close games and occasionally catch lightning in a bottle (witness their late-game comeback/ victory over the Bruins today). They're not good enough to resemble a contender, but they're also not bad enough to make them an easy mark -- even with the admittedly diminishing returns of Brodeur's play.
Manuel Socciati
B's were flat. We'll continue to fade Brodeur cause there is huge profit potential in doing so.
Sep 21, 2013 15:47:11
Sherwood, after 4 consecutive seasons in the red you have posted 5 straight winning seasons in College Football. Did you change your overall approach and the types of games you were betting or is the turnaround just a matter of making better decisions the past 5 seasons?
Bake McBride
Not that I'm aware of Bake. I've been using the same criteria for as long as I can remember and I wish I had a logical answer for you but I don't. Perhaps the info available these days is better than it's ever been, allowing me to fine-tune my selection process more. Thanks for writing and best of luck always!
Sep 20, 2013 13:17:08
I see today that you chose the Cubs for the first 5 innings. You said it was because the wager was based on the starting pitchers. It seems to me that most of your plays are based on the starting pitchers so I'm surprised you don't play the first 5 more often. Many times I will take your plays and do exactly that. Now I have no stats to determine if that's a better approach or not. However it seems to me to be the case. Yesterday for example I got a +170 payout on Seattle first 5, whereas they ended up losing the game. Have you ever back checked to see how you would have done using this approach?
Bill
Bill: At the beginning of the year I played the first 5 a lot more and it was not beneficial. I don't have the exact stats either but next season I will definitely track it. You make a very good point but my sense is that you can't pick and choose. You either play them all in 5 innings or none of them on each day. Next season this will be monitored to an exact science. Thanks for taking the time to write.
Sep 18, 2013 09:27:52
Diamond vs. Danks seems like an over play today, but a part of me just wants to fade Diamond on the RL because he's ABSOLUTELY terrible......leaning towards the over 8 due to Danks' inconsistency however. I have to say, you've helped me become a better handicapper - shedding the urge to play parlays after 20 years of proline held me back, but I seek value more than "sure-shots" that pay nothing now. This site does a great service to people who make the same mistakes over and over.
Magus
Thank-you Magus. I'm glad to have helped you make better decisions and look at things from different perspectives. Give yourself some credit too for having an open mind to see things another way. Best of luck and thanks for the kind words and support.
Sep 12, 2013 15:59:26
Think the CHI play in survivor is great but curious as to your thoughts on PHI. I think it is a really solid week to use them and then I don't have to bet against AP who can win games by himself! Torn between the two. Keep up the good work - appreciate what you do.
Jay
Thanks Jay. Philly scares me because that display you saw on Monday Night was the first chance anyone had to see them. In other words, Washington could not prepare for something they had never seen. The offense thrived but this isn't college and the film is now out on Chip Kelly's offense. Because of one half of football, Philly is overvalued and I don't trust Vick or Philly's defense to put all my eggs on them this week. With Chicago, we know what we're getting. Best of luck in whatever way you choose to go.
Sep 12, 2013 00:15:53
Hey Sherwood hell of a season you're having in baseball, keep up the good work. It would be a great accomplishment to hit over 100 units in mlb this year playing mainly dogs & small favorites at 2 units per play. Thanks, Dan
Dan
Thanks Dan. Long way from 100 units, especially after a bit of a cold run but that 100 units is attainable. I'm giving it all I got. Thanks for taking the time to write. Appreciate the support.
Sep 10, 2013 12:14:26
Hey Randall, love your underdog picks. If they are not bang on, they are usually pretty damn close. Keep up the good work.
Max
ah, thanks Max, very much, but Randall is not part of this site and has no input in any picks. Just a heads up.
Aug 29, 2013 17:45:36
Ive been coming here a few weeks now, and not one single time has any site available in the US had ANY of the lines that these guys give out. Easy to make money when you are getting +103 juice and its -110 or -105 everywhere else.. smh
sports guy
Dude, you're with the wrong books then. I've been doing this for 10 years on-line and this is the first time I've had a comment like yours. Check 5Dimes, they accept US players and they always have the same lines as I post. Oh, and BTW, I just checked lines again and we are not off on any of them for Thursday night. You need to change books.
Aug 26, 2013 10:26:35
Looking forward to week one! I expect Niners to go over 11.5 wins at better than 3-2 odds as well........my Pats,not so much unfortunately. My last preseason play was Niners last night, making up for a 1-2 afternoon on baseball. Hope Zito's ineptitude pays us again tonight. Best of luck Sherwood!
Magus
Aug 24, 2013 23:36:51
Great call on the Gonzalez fight! Absolutely beautiful!
SoonerBS
Thank you very much.
Aug 23, 2013 12:39:43
I've bet baseball for about 10 years but light this year. Enjoy betting some of these games and reviewing the great write ups. I have a comment but really a question regarding Bruce Chen. Is he really the same stiff he was at the beginning of his career? He had a good season at least in the common stats a few years ago I recall was a decent dog I recall being on. However, he didn't even make the rotation again like you say so he has regressed again. But what did he do to even has the limited success he has had?
Skeeter
Skeeter, luck plays a big factor for many of these pitchers in that hard hit balls can be hit right at people. Zito is a prime example. For 1½ years Zito was winning games before those balls started dropping. Chen is in the same boat. When you don't strike out many and don't induce groundballs, you are at the mercy of your defense and luck. Chen's groundball/fly-ball rate is atrocious and his K rate is low. That's the sign of a pitcher in trouble. Any pitcher can come out and throw a solid game or even a string of them in terms of results. Over time, however, the truth does come out and the truth is Chen is one of the least reliable starters in all of baseball. Nothing has changed regarding his skills or lack thereof.
Aug 23, 2013 12:29:41
Any chance of another over/under NFL pick? Thank you
Bob
Yes Bob, just waiting for final roster cuts before making another one but we do have a couple on our radar that we will post next week.
Aug 21, 2013 15:25:19
No one is immune to bad streaks. If someone can't end up ahead following someone who is 69 units ahead then that means they are hopeless.
Gynecologist
Thanks Gyno. Agreed.
Aug 21, 2013 15:04:12
Well, you have put together a good season Sherwood. Sorry if you took my observation regarding your "slump" the wrong way.
BakeMcBride
Thank you BB, I was merely pointing out that short term results mean very little.
Aug 20, 2013 11:50:21
This is excellent work. Good luck to close the season.
Skeeter
Thank you Skeeter. Good luck to you too.
Aug 20, 2013 11:01:19
I agree, Sherwood, the money has already been made in the early going of the MLB season. Most new gamblers do not understand that gambling is a "marathon," not a "sprint." There will be dry runs and rich runs. The goal is to make money whenever you get to the end. Keep up the good work.
SoonerBS
Thanks you Sooner. A vote of confidence is always appreciated by someone in the know.
Aug 19, 2013 18:16:17
Wow. 6 - 23 over your last 29 bets. That's a serious dry spell that would crush the bankroll of many a man.
BakeMcBride
There are positive people and negative people. When you bet on sports, losing streaks are inevitable. I'm in one now but I find it rather amusing that I didn't hear a single word from you when I was killing it for 3 months in baseball. Still up over 65 units on the year in MLB and that, my negative friend, could have fattened a lot of bankrolls.
Aug 10, 2013 16:55:54
Sherwood, I have been capping college football for 15 years and have done well in it. I have had only 3 losing seasons in that time. I know nothing about the MLB capping and I do not like to cap NFL with all the time I put in on college football. I have recently found you at the beginning of the Summer and decided to follow your plays wagering small units for fun. You have been superb! I can tell you know what you are doing because of your write-ups. I can't believe you are doing this for free. Thanks!
SoonerBS
You're welcome Sooner, Glad you've been able to cash in on my MLB plays. Best of luck in the upcoming college season and thanks for taking the time to send a message.
Aug 8, 2013 08:30:18
I'm interested in your NFL pre-season plays. I've always felt football bettors miss out on weaker lines before week 1 (by week 3 of the regular season, Vegas is razor sharp). I don't foresee a lot of playing time for Peyton tonight, and I'm thinking San Fran to cover the -3. Colt McCoy should lead just enough painful, fizzling FG drives to get it done. As for the CFL tilt, I like Ricky Ray to stomp that Montreal D enough for Toronto to win by a major+. As always, keep up the good work!
Magus
Thanks Magus. You're right. A preseason game pays just as much as any other and there are opportunities. You may have found one and we wish you the best of luck.
Aug 6, 2013 11:50:47
Hi Sherwood. I just wanted to say you've been great lately (hope I don't jinx you) and yesterday's play on the CWS on the runline was simply awesome. It's one I would have never made on my own. What a nice payoff. What I've also found is that even if your play doesn't win, the info you're putting out can be valuable at other times. In fact, I like playing totals and I end up using your info a lot. Thanks again.
Bill
You're welcome Bill. I always appreciate the time one takes to send a message of gratitude. I'm glad you are able to use the information to your benefit. Thanks for the support and I wish you continued good luck!!
Aug 3, 2013 13:38:47
Sherwood, I check your site every day and in all my years of betting sports I have never seen a bettor on a better roll than the one you are on right now and have been for 2 months. It's sick dude! You obviously do extensive research cause nobody breaks down games like you. Thanks a mil.
Conan
You're welcome Conan, it's always nice to get the acknowledgement and support from readers like yourself.
Jul 22, 2013 10:29:26
Gotta keep fading Jays (especially Johnson vs. Ryu)! Walk-machine Pomeranz of the Rockies another dreg to bet against :) Cubbies possibly as well...... Good luck Sherwood!
Magus
Thanks Magus. Agree with you on Dodgers but not so much about fading Pomeranz. Pomeranz is a dreg but so is Koehler and the Fish have not scored a single run in three games. Best of luck in whatever you do and thanks for the support.
Jul 21, 2013 10:25:20
Excellent research and write-ups this last month. I've followed the site for many years and agree with the analysis more than 80% of the time. I'm hoping hittable Dickey shows up today which should give a Rays play a good chance to cash.
Magus
Jul 20, 2013 11:51:13
Sweet start to the second half of the baseball season, nice work. Can't believe that Buehrle is favoured over Hellickson today, what am I missin'?
Canuck
Thanks Canuck We noticed that Buehrle was wrongly favored over Hellickson right away this morning and it's on our slate of games. Hellickson's 4.69 ERA has him grossly undervalued.
Jul 10, 2013 07:56:11
Thanks for your response yesterday, Sherwood. If I had taken the time to read one of your write ups I would have instantly recognized your style as being the same person from the RX. I just wanted to say that I'm probably one of many, many silent fans that you aren't even aware of that you are helping. So although you hear it often, I just want to say thank you very much for your time, effort, and generous spirit.
Bill
You're very welcome Bill. I appreciate the time you took to write and for the kind words. It's always nice to hear it!
Jul 9, 2013 09:32:50
Are you the same Sherwood from the Rx?
Bill
Indeed, I am Bill.
Jul 5, 2013 13:25:02
hi-just recently came to your site--was checking your cfl record for previous years [which I think is very good] and noticed no record for 2012==Where u not posting then? I read here daily and appreciate your work so I thank you=jim
Jim
Last year during the CFL season I was part of the Randall the Handle website and because Randall sets the CFL lines in Las Vegas and for most on-line books, we were restricted from making selections in that sport. This season, we are not part of the RTH brand and have no restrictions. Thanks for your interest and support. Sherwood.
Jul 3, 2013 10:56:02
Name: Hey Sherwood; Long, long, time follower of the site. (Both with RTH and just you and your team) Love the analysis with the games you post-win or lose, there is logic to your selection and I lvoe the write-ups I\'ve been following your site for so long, that I try and guess who will be your selections on a daily basis. Anyways, just wondering if you will be posting any season win totals for NFL and/or CFB this season? Cheers; Gianni
Gianni
Thanks Gianni. I will definitely be posting some college and NFL season win totals sometime in August. Thanks for the support.
Jul 2, 2013 11:44:23
Amazing write-ups and information!! Keep it up!!! Really great work!
Peter
Thanks Peter.
Jun 30, 2013 01:31:43
Sherwood I dont know where you get your info but your write-ups are so nicely done and exactly what this forum is supposed to be used for and if people want to use that info to play any or all of those games then that is up to them and if they win GREAT but if they lose that is not your fault and the info was still of great value towards playing or not playing the game...thank you for the time and effort that you put into trying to help your fellow player beat the books.....again sir I myself say THANK YOU and appreciate what you do!!!!
Weasel
Thank you.
Jun 27, 2013 08:22:34
Hey Sherwood, can't thank you enough for the in-depth MLB analysis. Love the site. Been a reader for years, long before you hooked up with Randall. Glad you are back on your own cause I never knew who was doing the write-ups at RTH. Good luck and looking forward to your CFL again.
Rob Y
Thanks for taking the time to write Rob. I appreciate the support and kind words very much.
Jun 17, 2013 12:03:10
Love the picks....keep them coming.....I am a professional sports better, and I won't pull the trigger until I see your picks...I don't always agree, but when I do, I know I have a good bet, win or lose!
Jeff
Thanks Jeff. We do our homework, that's for sure. Best of luck and thanks for the kind words.
Jun 16, 2013 18:29:40
Give it up on Colon his middle name is Houdini .
trapper53
So was Zito's for a while. You have to stick with it. We told you that Lester, Zito, Zimmerman and Weaver were all in for ERA corrections and so is Colon...big time.
May 30, 2013 01:20:50
Your Season to Date in the NHL going into Tuesday was at - 4.11 units and you did not have any hockey wagers on Tuesday. Now you are at -2.11 units. Hmmm. The way I have it, your NHL should still be at -4.11 and your Total Season to Date should be at - 31.65. Please check this.
Anon
Our bet on Los Angeles to beat San Jose @ -137 was a winner and was not recorded in Tuesday's results because the bet was placed before Game 1 of that series. You will see that result posted in our history and it is the reason for the 2 unit gain.
May 23, 2013 17:23:10
Love the baseball picks Sherwood! Was wondering if you will post a few college footballs futures in the coming weeks/months? And to Len LOL, it was a great bet on Golden State, if Curry doesn't injure himself we would be looking at 14 units.
Pete
Thanks Pete. This season, I will definitely be posting some college football futures. I appreciate the support. Best of luck.
May 21, 2013 09:32:47
How does one find time to handicap each and every sport? You seem to have picks for baseball, basketball, hockey, UFC. Or are there members of a team that so called "specialize" in each sport?
Steve
Steve: personally, I (Sherwood) do every sport with the exception of NBA basketball and UFC/Boxing picks. See the "About Us" section for more info. It's a full time job in which I am on the computer at 6:00 AM every day and work until 1:00 or 2:00 PM seven days a week, 362 days a year (3-day baseball all-star break). It's hard work and dedication.
May 17, 2013 23:22:14
Stick a fork in Ottawa. A reach just like Golden State.
Len
Another genius. You know Len, guys like you make me chuckle. You send me a comment like this AFTER the GS/SA series is final. Guys that send me stuff when the final scores are in are 800-0. They never lose, just like you. You didn't say a single word when we chose GS to defeat Denver as a big dog and you didn't say a word when GS was up 16 points with 4 minutes to go in Game 1 and won Game 2, both in San Antonio. Game 6 saw GS down by a bucket heading to the fourth quarter. A stretch? Seriously? A stretch would've been Milwaukee to beat Miami. That GS/SA series could have easily gone to Game 7 and we were taking back 7-1 odds. Steph Curry doesn't get injured and we're probably cashing that ticket. Now Ottawa is down 0-2 and you send me this? Newsflash: That series isn't over yet you were quick to send me your idiotic comments when Pitt goes up 2-0. Hey Len, tell me who you like in the Bruins/Leafs series. Dude, I have a lot of respect for people that send me comments and point out stuff before the series or games start. For idiots like you, I have no time or patience for. Fool.
May 10, 2013 14:24:57
Outstanding work lately Sherwood. Love the in depth MLB analysis and wanted to take the time to thank you. You are #1 in my book
JD
Thanks for taking the time JD and for the support.
May 1, 2013 15:42:32
love the bosox play, vs buerhle tonight got 3 k on it, put it in lst night better hitting team better Starter Better Bullpen jays defense questionable love the breakdown a full4 category edge AM EXTREMELY CHUFFED to wake up and see ur endorsement thumbs up
PRIMO
Thanks friend, appreciate the support
Apr 26, 2013 07:33:25
SHERWOOD we spoke over email, over NFL season a few years back, exchanging a bit of angles, I can vouch for this guy, keep up the solid write-ups and remember " ITS EACH ONE'S OWN INDIVIDUAL responsibility to pull the trigger or not, " may your write-ups continue to provide ammunition for "Primo's" gun pri·mo (prm) n. pl. pri·mi (-m) adj. 1. First. 2. Slang a. Exceptionally good of its kind; first-class. b. Highly or most valuable.
this is PRIMO
Thanks man.I appreciate the kind words and support.
Apr 23, 2013 01:38:53
Sherwood - another excellent day for you yesterday - Congrats on that and I'm sure its much more enjoyable posting when everything is coming together for you. I'm probably not going to bet today and I looked at 2 of the games you selected on. Oakland makes me nervous because of the poor fundamentals they showed hitting in the Tampa Bay series - its hard to be sure they "Click" today - one day after doing nothing yesterday ... maybe though they are an outdoor team and as long as the weather is decent they can pick it up quickly ... I guess I just want to see confirmation of that first... before putting my money out there. Cleveland was the other bet I was looking at - but decided to wait a day also .... here you got Swisher / Giambi ... basically a bunch of retreads - that can they produce day in day out ?? I'm not sure. On the other side having watched CWS play -- A. Dunn is a rally killer when they get behind because he is just going to strike out and not score the men on base in front of him ... which really sucks. I'm going to put down today as research and catch as many games as possible and see if I can see something worthy of a bet tomorrow. Wish you much success as always .. cheers.
jamietwelve
Thanks JT. Best of luck 2u2
Apr 11, 2013 08:52:42
Great call on Tampa as Moore pitches 5 innings of 1 hit shutout baseball. He also walked 5 so his high pitch count means he probably won't go beyond six innings so the first five line worked out great. I know some here believe in jinxes but if that worked I'd just reverse jinx all my plays that were losing so I'm gonna give you credit for a great call on Sanchez as well. I know the game isn't over but Sanchez didn't make it out of the 4th so your short outing call was dead right and I'll take a chance counting this as a winner with a 9 run lead in the 5th and Miley looking solid.
hoosierfn
Thanks hoosierfn, lots of work goes into these picks.
Apr 7, 2013 14:08:29
Great stuff as usual Sherwood. Liking the first 5 inn only plays. Good luck.
On The Hop
Apr 6, 2013 05:42:21
Love reading these informative posts. Thanks for the efforts Sherwood. Knock it out of the park.
VV
Apr 5, 2013 11:49:26
Yesterday was 0-3. Lost on Detroit, Mets, and Baltimore. Yet for some reason there are only 2 losses marked down. Shady record keeping. Beware...
chris
Not True. Baltimore was a 5-inning play and game was tied 2-2 after 5 frames. Thus the 0-2-1 record.
Mar 31, 2013 14:49:24
Nice Florida pick. Game is over 10 minutes in. Frauds from a fraud conference.
Tebow
Mar 25, 2013 10:09:35
hey sherwood, great to have your site back. I had followed you for years.
Steve K
Thanks Steve. It's good to be back
Mar 22, 2013 08:04:05
Great start to the tourney. Thanks for the picks Randall.
Jake W
Mar 12, 2013 15:05:18
rth , you need a break....... bad picks
cb
Feb 21, 2013 08:34:35
Wanted to say thanks Randall - especially for your NHL picks which have been outstanding!
Strawman
Feb 5, 2013 09:26:38
Randall : Thanks for the great Monday night 4 of 4 winners.
Mr. W. Baxter
Feb 5, 2013 00:40:09
Awesome night! 5/5 and two big ML picks. on a roll!!!
Craqig S
Jan 29, 2013 12:38:47
Randall, I have been following your hockey picks now for sometime and really like your model. Keep it up!
AK
Jan 10, 2013 17:29:34
Randall, thanks for your picks. You're college BB and NFL picks have been outstanding lately and I just wanted to send you a note to thank you for all your hard work in providing these picks for free.
Jess
Dec 30, 2012 08:29:03
That was some damn sharp picking yesterday. College picks have been outstanding Randall. Thanks for this site.
GV
Dec 17, 2012 08:54:53
Randall, you're on a tear in the NFL. Keep up the good work. Love your insights. They are so damn persuasive! Happy Holidays.
Robert G.
Nov 29, 2012 10:24:33
Too bad GT pooped its pants last night or you would have had a nice call on that one
trec
Nov 16, 2012 12:21:45
Your free football picks every week are appreciated. Thanks, they're both educational and informative.
Chatin
Nov 9, 2012 02:40:13
You have been Money as of late took my book from $20 to $300 in three days with your tips. Thank you!
PDM
Oct 28, 2012 20:03:33
Nice job on the football picks all week. Much appreciated as always
Craiger
Oct 28, 2012 09:27:36
Incredible college picks yesterday. 3 dogs, 3 outright winners. Thanks for a great day.
Jesse
Oct 27, 2012 14:27:45
Randall, you continue to dazzle with your picks. Giants over Tigers was tough to bet, as everyone was saying the Tigers couldn't lose with Zito starting the opener and now we get a chance to, as you put it, free roll on the series. Win, lose or draw, your picks are a must read. Great site, great results. Thank you.
Paul V
Oct 21, 2012 10:05:43
Tough loss on Indiana game yesterday but agreed with your pick/description 100%. Thank you for taking the time to continually post picks.
Scott
Oct 1, 2012 08:19:19
Been following you all year and for first time in years, I'm actually winning money! Your approach is great and I've learned that value is where it's at. +106 units for the year is outstanding. Thank you! Keep up the great work!
Johnny J Wilson
Sep 22, 2012 23:15:18
Randall, that's some sharp college football picking this week. K-State over Oklahoma was the cherry on the topping. Thanks for this free site. Serious.
Wayne I
Sep 18, 2012 17:45:49
Handle, awesome start to NFL. You nailed some toughies yesterday. Good work. My wife and bank account both thank you!
Sean C.
Sep 17, 2012 09:43:21
Great job on picks and Survivor yesterday. I listened to you and avoided New England! All those suckas laughed at me. We got the last laugh! Good call on Colts and Dolphins. Heard radio show and you convinced me. Rock on Randall!
Jeffer
Sep 9, 2012 18:02:20
Great Survivor pick and wager on Jets Randall. You have guts. That's part of what separates you from the rest. As it turns out, that was the easiest game of the week
Max
Sep 7, 2012 21:08:44
Your website is the best! Thoughtful and detailed analysis along with great picks!!! Love the success you have had in the big ones like the NFL playoffs (including the Super Bowl) and the Stanley Cup champs last year!!! Keep up the good work - I bet your success rate is much higher than the so-called experts in Vegas who charge! The best part is its all free!!! Thanks and happy picking!!!
Delaware Rob
Sep 4, 2012 23:40:09
Thanks for the picks Randle, you keep it straight forward and dont charge either! Keep it up n looking forward to your nfl predictions :-)
John
Sep 4, 2012 08:33:33
3-0 sweeeeep yesterday was sweeeeeeeeeet! Thanks Randall and Co.!
Mark Mazeroski
Sep 1, 2012 17:56:40
Nice call on Ohio over Penn today on the ML! Keep up your great work, Randall. And to folks reading this, Randall and crew are up for hte year. It's all there in black and white. The others are frauds. They keep it real here.
Beeny
Aug 31, 2012 08:22:14
Looking forward to football season with you. I always check here before making any plays because you guys get it. Best of luck this season!
Jon V.
Aug 27, 2012 14:00:03
I just wanted to take a moment to express my appreciation to you. I'm a school principal in my mid-fifties, recently an empty-nester. I love the NFL, but really have discovered over the past few years a love of sports wagering. You've been a big part of that. In the long evenings here in Toronto it's very entertaining to do some internet homework on the evening's games and then take a little action to make them more fun to watch. It gives me something to chat with my kids about, too. I've been a fan of your Sunday morning radio show for some years now, and regret if I ever have to miss it. Two of your greatest qualities in my opinion are your terrific sense of humour (in print daily, as well as on the show) and the thoroughness with which you do your work. It's refreshing to hear your take on an event, regardless of the outcome. I still can't figure out why you provide the quality service you do, while guys like Malinsky (who I admire some too) can charge hundreds a week. You were red hot last night…in fact, you've been hot for quite a while, a testament to your shrewd insight. Although you have a special talent, you make the average bettor smarter by teaching how to read between the lines of data. I hope I meet you sometime. I owe you more than a beer. For those of us who can bet within our means, you've made a potentially shady pastime into what is almost a logic puzzle, enjoyable every night of the week. All the best, Dave
Dave L.
Aug 23, 2012 11:31:33
Faves went 14-1 in MLB yesterday.Bounce back day!
Alex Church
Aug 18, 2012 01:18:33
Friday Aug 17 2012 East York Toronto Ont. > Randall > Thanks for a great Friday night , 2 nice winners in MLB . Follow you every day . Best Regards .
Mr. William Baxter
Aug 17, 2012 23:17:25
Randall, lov ya bro. 2-0 wtih a +55 doggie. Woof woof woof!
Sandman
Aug 13, 2012 18:04:23
very nice new website !.thank you for the late pick yesterday Col-SF over...sorry i picked your FB profile image for mine too..loll..love it!!...c'ant wait for the first sunday morning with you guys..im one of your huge french fan listener..
Martin H.
Aug 12, 2012 22:49:56
You nailed that Giants total today, Randall! You were bang on...7.5 with those two stiffs pitching. Cashed in on that one, thanks to you! Keep up the great work.
Jack Armello
Aug 11, 2012 19:18:17
Sat Aug 11 2012 7 15 pm : Randall : Thanks for your great picks and advise .the new site is great . You are educating a lot of bettors in the right way to bet and make a honest dollar . Looking forward to your NFL picks .Again Thanks for the great work . Sincerely : Mr. Baxter PS I got the late e mail bug fixed by your team .
Mr. William Baxter
Aug 8, 2012 22:10:36
Randall, thanks for the great picks. I'm so sick of these so called experts that trot out the same useless info everyday. You are a breath of fresh air my friend! Me and my buddies are lifers.
B. Mildour
Aug 7, 2012 16:55:39
Rockin it, Randall. Thanks man.
Jacko_p
Aug 6, 2012 01:01:32
Jays +150 on late pick was a great way to end my week. :-) Let me just say that this is the BEST 'capping site on the internet.
jonathan DB
Aug 5, 2012 19:49:46
Nailed the Blue Jays today on the late pick. WTG Randall!
Beany Bill
Aug 5, 2012 14:23:41
Looking foward to your NFL season win predictions. They make me money every year! When might they be posted?
robert denard
Aug 5, 2012 14:22:22
Randall, baseball picks have been on fire. thanks man. Can't wait for the NFL to start!
Clobberem
Aug 5, 2012 14:21:03
Thanks for the picks. Appreciate all the work you do and the professional way in which you present it. Win or lose, I always feel like i'm doing the right thing when taking your selectons.
Brandon B
Jul 31, 2012 19:51:54
Late picks are sick!! Keep it up, Randall!
Geen Geen
Jul 28, 2012 08:38:35
Site looks great. Looking forward to your NCAA and NFL stuff!
Adam C.
Jul 28, 2012 08:37:29
OUch Randall...not the way to spend a Friday night. Need a rebound today, brother.
john thom
Jul 27, 2012 08:22:52
Great call on Mets last nigth, Randall. Ching ching!
Steviepop
Jul 25, 2012 09:04:13
Smokin' em in baseball now. Riding the waving, baby!
Vince Tag
Jul 24, 2012 10:34:09
Nice work Monday. Thanks. Best 'capping site on the internet.
Danny Gibson
Jul 21, 2012 10:15:52
Randall, nice sweep yesterday. Baseball can be streaky and you've had some dumb bad luck recently. I feel good things coming now!
Baseball
Jul 20, 2012 01:14:45
I'm a first time caller, long time listener, dig the new site , hope to talk some shit around here when the football season starts. Anyways I'm on the Pirates and Yanks for friday.
lancelogan
Jul 15, 2012 15:33:01
The new website looks good, Randall. The info is pretty good too.
Mike in Thornhill
Jul 15, 2012 10:46:49
This is the most honest and successful betting info available. Thank you, thank you, thank you!
Dustin
Jul 15, 2012 10:45:37
Lovin it! Thanks Randall for all your work and valuable picks. You've changed my way of playing and thinking.
Daniel L.
Jul 13, 2012 15:17:32
love the new look and features
tim g
Jul 13, 2012 13:33:00
Great looking new website. Now let's get that cheese Mickey.
Mike in Thornhill
Jul 13, 2012 10:00:25
Randall....Great New Website! Not a lot a quality free stuff out there, but you come through..thanks!
Pete
Jul 12, 2012 23:31:14
Thanks Randall for all the hard work that we're too lazy to do and for the rewarding results!
Enrique