Jacksonville @ CLEVELAND
CLEVELAND +7½ -105 over Jacksonville

BEST LINES: Pinnacle +7½ -105 Bet365 +7½ -110 SportsInteraction +8½ -105  5DIMES +7½ -107

Posted Friday at 1:30 PM EST

1:05 PM EST. There is no organization that has been more disappointing – short-term and long-term – than the Cleveland Browns. From wasted draft picks to underachieving free agent signings, the Browns push to win a game – any game – has been next to impossible. They can hold together for a while but always seem to find a way to fail. For most of the season, it has been the defense that has kept Cleveland in games only to have the offense ruin the party. On Sunday, the Browns offense put up 413 yards and, with two minutes left in the third quarter, led Detroit 24-17 and had held Matthew Stafford almost completely in check. In the final 16 minutes, they allowed Stafford to throw three touchdowns and lost 38-24, dropping to 0-9 and continuing to find new ways to lose. We won’t even get into Hue Jackson’s clock management mess up at the end of the first half because everyone knows about it. Let’s just say that everything the Brownies do is a joke. However, Cleveland has too many good players to go 0-16 and there is no chance we’re recommending spotting more than a converted TD with the Jags on the road.

For one thing, the low total of 37 is not conducive to spotting this many points. Secondly, the Jags haven’t been priced on the road in this range for years and with that comes expectations. For the first time in a very long time, Jacksonville is a significant road favorite that is expected to win. This is a team that is very used to going on the road with nothing to lose and expected to lose. There is a major change in their role and mindset here and it makes them vulnerable. We could get on board with the Jags if they had a strong QB able to deal with big expectations but Blake Bortles is not that guy. Bortles and the Jags are also coming off a miracle win against the Chargers in a game they had no business winning in. For whatever reason, the Chargers continue to find ways not to lose but to give away sure victories and Sunday was another one of those times. The Jags went from the agony of a sure defeat to the thrill of victory in a matter of moments so they also have to deal with keeping their jubilation in check and focusing right away on the next game. The Jags may win this game going away because Cleveland is always in danger of getting whacked but all the trouble boxes for the Jags need to be checked here. Their stock is too high – check -----they’re coming off an emotional win that should’ve never happened – check ----- they’re playing a weak team after a big win ---check and finally, the Jags will be forced to play in a cold climate this week with a QB that cannot be trusted. The points are sweet here in what figures to be a low scoring game. 

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Our Pick

CLEVELAND +7½ -105 (Risking 2.1 units - To Win: 2.00)