_{BEST LINES: Pinnacle +7½ -117 Bet365 +7½ -115 SportsInteraction +7½ -105  5DIMES +7½ -115}

_{Posted Friday at 2:45 PM EST}

_{8:30 PM EST. The defending champs are 6-2 after four straight wins so all looks to be well with the Patriots, as they come off their bye. Tom Brady leads the league's number one offense and the Pats just picked up former tight end Martellus Bennett off waivers to bolster their passing attack. While New England seems to be fine on the surface, a closer look shows that the Pats have some big problems that are being masked by their recent string of W’s. Tom Brady might be the GOAT (greatest of all time) but he’s still a 40-year-old QB who is in line to set a dubious career high in sacks taken after getting planted 21 times already this season. He was sacked just 15 times in all of 2016. Tommy Boy has also taken 43 hits so far this season and the older you get, the deeper and more painful those bruises become. New England’s pass blocking has not been on par at all this season, as this unit is 15th in adjusted sack rate at 6.4%, behind garbage fires like the Giants, Dolphins, and Buccaneers. If the Patriots O-line is a concern, then the defense is a full-blown cluster muck. The Pats are 31st in Defensive DVOA (a relevant metric that measures defense adjusted value over average), and they aren’t particularly strong against the run (27th) or the pass (29th). The Pats have had particular trouble covering number one wide receivers and rank 30th in that advanced metric. Injuries are never much of a concern when we handicap games, as they are already factored into the line, but it’s hard to ignore that two of Brady’s favorite targets in Chris Hogan and Danny Amendola are both banged up and were limited at practice all week. The return of tight end Bennett might look nice on paper, but it may take him a while to readjust to the New England offense.}

_{When you have two quarterbacks it usually means you have no quarterbacks and that’s pretty much where the Broncos find themselves halfway through the season. Denver has lost four straight including last Sunday’s blowout loss to Philadelphia in Brock Osweiler’s first start of the season. For the Broncos, below average QB play has been the norm going back to Peyton Manning’s last season in Denver and that team won the Super Bowl because of an elite defense. Thankfully for the Broncos, not much has changed in that regard. The Orange Crush is still flowing, as the Broncos bring the number six DVOA defense to the table.}

_{We get it. It’s hard to back the Broncos with the way they’ve been playing but strange things have been known to happen when these two teams get together. The Pats and Broncos have split the last six meetings in this series, with Osweiler quarterbacking Denver to one of those victories so these are not uncharted waters. The perception in this market much more interesting to us. In that regard, the Patriots just keep winning while the Broncos look like one of the biggest dumpster fires in the game right now. A four-touchdown loss just a week ago in Philly also has the Broncos stock trading at a season-low. Let us remind you that Denver is a powerhouse at home and has been so for the past 30 years. Let us remind you that Denver’s defense is as good as it gets. Let us remind you that at home this season, Denver beat Dallas 42-17, the Bolts 24-21 (they led 24-7 going to the 4th Q) and Oakland, 16-10. Let us now inform you that outside of last week’s loss to Philadelphia (Denver’s third straight road game before this look-ahead game), the Broncs have outgained every other of the seven opponents they have faced this year, which includes Dallas, Kansas City and the Chargers not once but twice. If you bet New England this week, you may win but the more likely scenario is that you’ll feel foolish afterward after giving away better than a converted TD to this home beast. This is without question one of the most inflated prices you’ll pay in this league over the past decade or more. We’re calling the Broncos outright but we MUST take these propestrous points being offered.}

_{Please note that we usually exclude Sportsinteraction from our nrecord keeping, although I personally have an account there and bet often because they have ffer up great prices on underdogs all the time. We'll cover this in our next podcast.}

Open an account today at Pinnacle Sports and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks