Cleveland @ DETROIT
Cleveland +10½ -110 over DETROIT

BEST LINES: Pinnacle +10½ -109 Bet365 +10½ -110 SportsInteraction +11½ -110  5DIMES +10½ -110

Posted Friday at 2:45 PM EST

1:00 PM EST. The Lions might have the league’s highest paid player, but you’d think they would try and protect their investment. Quarterback Matt Stafford has been battered about after taking 26 sacks so far this season. The Lions O-line has a poor adjusted sack rate of 7.8%, which ranks 22nd, which would explain why Stafford spends so much time staring at the light. The poor offensive line play has affected all aspects of the Lions offense, as Detroit only has the number 20 DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) offense, and it is the league’s worst DVOA rushing team. The Stafford led passing game is a middle of the road unit (17th) while Big Money Matty is just 13th in total QB DVOA behind Derek Carr and his best buddy Matt Ryan, both of whom are considered to be having down seasons.

If there has been one positive for the winless Browns this season, it’s been the play of first overall pick Myles Garrett and the rest of the defensive line. The Brownies rank second in rushing space allowed to the offensive line and second in run plays stuffed behind the line of scrimmage making this a great matchup in the trenches as the Lions offensive line ranks either last or next to last in both of those areas. Garrett has only played in three games this season, but he’s already racked up four sacks and 11 tackles. To help further the case for the Browns in the trenches is the fact that Lions Pro Bowl guard, TJ Lang is in concussion protocol, making this often overlooked matchup even tastier.

The Browns are winless and spent the bulk of their bye week as the league’s laughing stock after botching a trade for Bengals' backup QB A.J. McCarren. Cleveland has been so bad for so long that it’s going to take a long time before the market considers looking its way to cash a ticket. The Brownies haven’t won a road game in over two years but this one sets up nicely for a cover. Cleveland is taking back inflated points against a weak team that just won a high profile prime time game, as the Lions disposed of the Packers on Monday Night Football. The Browns are coming off 10 days rest while the Lions are right back at it after a short week. The market feasted on easy winners last Sunday but there are danger signs all over the NFL map this week and this is another one of many that we’re targeting. Even though we get inflated prices on the Browns every week, they can’t be bet blindly every week because of it. One still has to go through the process and pick the best spots to get behind this dreg. This is that spot, as this game for Detroit is sandwiched between Green Bay in prime time last week and the rival Bears next week. We’d be more shocked if Cleveland didn’t cover than if Detroit did.

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Our Pick

Cleveland +10½ -110 (Risking 2.2 units - To Win: 2.00)