San Francisco @ PHILADELPHIA
San Francisco +12½ -106 over PHILADELPHIA

BEST LINES: Pinnacle +12½ -106 Bet365 +12½ -105 SportsInteraction +13 -115 5DIMES +12½ -110

Posted Friday at 2:45 PM EST.

1:00 PM EST. The Eagles' win over the Redskins to cap off Week 7 has been called quarterback Carson Wentz’s coming out party. The second-year pivot is getting MVP talk after leading Philly to five straight wins and with the last two of those coming in prime time, the 6-1 Eagles now have the best record in the NFL. With that honor comes a ton of market appeal. Rarely do we like to discuss injuries in this space but as the wins keep piling up for the Eagles, so do the bodies in their infirmary. The Birds lost two more key players on Monday night including left tackle Jason Peters and middle linebacker Jordan Hicks. Both will miss the rest of the year with season ending surgery. Peters, an All-Pro, will be sorely missed as the anchor in a Philly O-line that already has problems protecting the quarterback. The Eagles are just 18th in the NFL in adjusted sack rate a 7.6% after giving up 19 free shots at the QB so far this year. The Eagles offense is largely one dimensional, as they bring a middle of the road running game to the table, which is again hampered by a below average O-line play. Philly is just 22nd in adjusted line yards at 3.92. The Eagles lead runner, LeGarrette Blount, is thought of as a power back but the Eagles power run game is almost nonexistent, ranking 26th with just 53% power run success. Blount isn’t busting through the line either, as the Birds are getting stuffed at the line 21% of the time. On the other side of the ball, the Eagles are 20th in total defense and just 29th in defending the pass.

At 0-7 and coming off a 40-10 home loss to the Cowboys, the 49ers look like a lost cause. However, despite last week’s disappointing result, San Fran has been competitive this season with five of its seven losses coming by three points or less including two of which came in overtime. The 49ers made a change at quarterback last week with rookie C.J. Beathard getting the start and he didn’t look out of place regardless of the result. The former Iowa Hawkeye has chemistry with former college teammate, tight end George Kittle. Beathard got a vote of confidence from his teammates when fullback Kyle Juszczyk said of the new starter, “he carries himself like a vet and you don’t see him shying away from anything.”

Just two weeks ago we saw two 13+ point favorites in Atlanta and Denver lose outright. In a game between first and worst, there is going to be an overreaction on both sides. If you bet the Eagles coming off two impressive prime-time wins, you are going to be paying a massive premium to do so. For the 49ers, it’s just about as tough to go 0-16 as it is to go 16-0. You have to have a lot of bounces go against you and that’s been the story of their season. A call here or a broken tackle there and San Francisco could be 5-2 just as easily as it is 0-7. This line opened with the Eagles at -10½ points favorites and the Birds were quickly bet up to -13, proving oddsmakers could have set an already inflated line even higher and not swayed a bet. The Eagles have played one other winless team this season and that was the Giants in Week 3, where they narrowly escaped as a -5 point favorite by needing a 61-yard field goal as time expired to win the game. The NFL season is a grind and after two straight prime-time games, this is a massive letdown spot for the Eagles. The media is slobbering all over the Eagles and the local media is telling them how great they are. There is no question that we’re getting inflated points here and while that doesn’t mean we’re going to win, it does mean we are absolutely going with the best of it. The 49ers must be played here.  

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Our Pick

San Francisco +12½ -106 (Risking 2.12 units - To Win: 2.00)