Today's Free Picks for
Posted October 3, before Week 5
L.A. Rams +450 to win Division
This wager is available at BET365 in the “To Win Division” section at the bottom of the Football betting page and frankly, it’s a bad number put up by that outfit. The Seahawks (2-2) are a 2½-1 favorite to win it, the Cardinals (2-2) are the second choice at +375 and the Rams are third choice at +450 (SF is 150-1). In reality, it’s a three horse race but from our vantage point, the Rams should be -2½-1 and not the Seahawks. We’ve already voiced our opinion on the Cardinals but we’ll reiterate that this is an old, busted up team that has two wins in four tries. The two victories occurred against Indy and San Fran and the Cardinals were extremely lucky in both games to win, as they needed OT in both games. Arizona could easily be 0-4 and not 2-2.
Right now, the Seahawks are 2-2 while the Rams are 3-1 so right off the bat, Seattle is chasing the Rams. These two play twice this year and the first game is this coming Sunday with the Rams being a two-point choice. If the Rams win, they’ll be 4-1 while Seattle will be 2-3 and the odds to win the division will change dramatically. Even if Seattle wins, we’re still in fine shape with this wager, as Seattle’s next five games are against the Giants, Houston, Washington, Arizona and Atlanta. The games against the Giants and Arizona are on the road while Seattle will host Houston, Washington and Atlanta. This Sunday’s game is in Los Angeles. Meanwhile, after Seattle this weekend, the Rams next five games are against Jacksonville, Arizona, New York (Giants), Houston and Minnesota. Advantage L.A.
The real key here, however, is that the Rams are coming on big time while the Seahawks have holes in their lineup all over the place. The Rams are a legit threat while the Seahawks are not. Furthermore, Russell Wilson is in serious danger of being knocked out for a few games because he’s playing behind perhaps the worst offensive line in football. The other side of that coin is Jared Goff.
Buy the Rams stock before the market catches on to how good Goff is. He didn’t play at a big Power-5 school in college so he was not exposed like a Jameis Winston or Deshaun Watson for example. Under Jeff Fisher’s lame offense last year, Goff looked completely overwhelmed and overmatched, which was the first NFL (market) impression of him. The market perception of Goff coming into this year was that he was no good but that’s not true at all. His coaches were no good but this year the Rams have outstanding and innovative coaching. They also brought in some playmakers and a great left tackle and center. The Rams already have a rock solid defensive line and now they have a new-found confidence. That’s a huge difference in mindset. Last year, the Rams under Jeff Fisher averaged 12 first downs a game. This past Sunday against Dallas, Goff and the Rams offense had 24 first downs. Jared Goff is a former #1 pick and he can play. He’s winning too but this market sees Seattle as the only viable winner in the NFC West. The market perception is so off here that it has Arizona to finish ahead of the Rams. We love the Rams to beat Seattle this week in L.A. but we love +450 a whole lot more so instead of taking 2 units to bet on the Rams this weekend, take those two units and bet it on the Rams win the division. It’s a tremendous value play because they are the best team in the division and it might not be close.
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L.A. Rams +450 to win Division (Risking 2 units - To Win: 9.00)