Today's Free Picks for
Posted Friday at 2:15 PM EST.
1:00 PM EST. The Chiefs were flawless in their Thursday night opener in New England and the market has responded in a big way. In fact, after that singled out opening game of the season on a Thursday night, Twitter was abuzz about how good the Chiefs looked and we assure you that it did not go unnoticed by the oddsmakers. Thus, anticipation for this opening line was high and when it came out as -4½, the market was quick to pounce. We also assure you that the oddsmakers were anticipating Kansas City money in a big way but they had no fear in sending out a perceived short number.
We could go into all the details about how rookie runner Kareem Hunt is the latest fantasy star to come out of the K.C. backfield, just like Jamal Charles, Larry Johnson, and Priest Holmes were before him. We could tell you all about how Alex Smith played the game of his life by throwing for over 360 yards and four touchdowns. We can also go into detail about how the Chiefs put the hammer down in New England in the second half and put that team away in very impressive fashion but we won’t. Every single person reading this is very aware of what the Chiefs did last week, both individually and as a team. You not only watched it, you have probably heard and read about it two dozen times since.
We always preach that football is not about X’s and O’s. If everything played to form, we would all be rich but it simply does not work that way. We could easily make a case for the Chiefs here but that’s not our gig. We will not stray from our strategy of playing overreactions and in turn, grabbing inflated points or value because of that overreaction. Not only did K.C. lay a beating on a team last week, they did it against a team that was supposed to go 19-0. A big overreaction is in play here and while there are no guarantees, we do guarantee that the oddsmakers did not err when they opened with K.C. being a -4½-point choice. Indeed, K.C. looks appealing but one should always beware of shiny objects at the dollar store. Play the value.
Open an account today at Pinnacle Sports and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks.
Philadelphia +5½ -104 (Risking 2.08 units - To Win: 2.00)