BEST LINES: Pinnacle +7½ -106 Bet365 +8 -110 SportsInteraction +9 -110 5DIMES +7½ -112

Posted at 9:30 AM EST. 

3:30 PM EST. Both of these teams have improved substantially over the course of the season but only Iowa State has something to show for it. Now the improving Bears with a 1-9 record and no market credit whatsoever will get a stab at a team that might be spent. Last week, we wanted to see encouragement and belief taken from the Bears second half against Texas Tech and we saw it. We also needed to see a hunger and urgency to finally break through, a sense of being fed up with losing. The Bears showed us that balance of encouragement and determination during this practice week and this might be a good spot to move in hard, provided we also get the needed vibe from the visiting favorite.

We loved backing Matt Campbell's Toledo teams and are full believers in what's happening in Ames but the next two games are not the time to send it in on the Cyclones. Their four-game winning streak, which began with an upset win at Oklahoma and the emergence of Kyle Kempt at quarterback, was capped by an emotional home win over then-unbeaten TCU. The Cyclones fell behind West Virginia 20-0 in the obvious letdown spot, then fought back to lose 20-16. Then last week, a seesaw game with Oklahoma State saw Iowa State's hopes die at the 3-yard line in the final seconds for a gut-wrenching loss. It's been a whirlwind season with a string of recent tight games, the open date is far in the rearview mirror, and the Cyclones' last outing was a heartbreak for the ages. To put it bluntly, this bunch is out of gas, and not even an excellent coaching staff can prevent them from stopping to grab a subconscious breath heading into the matchup with a one-win Baylor team. The season has caught up with this surprise team and now they’re spotting gar too many points in a game they may lose outright.

Note: There are different numbers here depending on where you shop. Obviously getting the best number is everyone's intention so we're betting this at +9 at SIA. However, if you can't take +9, taking back anything over 7 still comes highly recommended. 

Open an account today at Pinnacle Sports and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks.