BEST LINES: Pinnacle -31 +100 Bet365 -21 -110 SportsInteraction -31 -110 5DIMES -31 -105

Posted at 10:45 AM EST

12:00 PM EST. Penn State’s dream season has become a nightmare after two straight road losses. Two weeks ago, PSU was up on Ohio State before blowing the game late and then they chased that game with a loss to Michigan State last Saturday falling from #2 in the nation to #14. The Nittany Lions hope for a College Playoff appearance is now sketchy at best, as they need the country’s other top teams to stumble like they have. With their season effectively over many pundits and pick sellers have pondered what could possibly motivate Penn State the rest of the way but there is still a lot of football to be played and as a northern team, PSU will get every opportunity to crack the top four if two loss teams end up in consideration. The Lions lost both of those games by a combined four points against quality competition and after two losses, it's easy to forget this is the same team that blasted the Wolverines 42-13 just three weeks ago. Now they’re in a foul mood.

Rutgers comes into this game after winning three of its last four games and the market has noticed that this team has covered four straight games as well. The Scarlet Knights won outright against Maryland last Saturday as a 4½-point pooch, hung around at the Big House with Michigan (covering the 22-point spread) and they defeated Purdue 14-12 as a near double digit dog. While the win against the Boilermakers is a nice one, the Knights were outgained by 257 yards in that game, they were also outgained by 276 yards in Michigan and despite the win over Maryland, Rutgers was outgained in that one too.

This one sided rivalry has been all Penn State over the years. Last season PSU won easily 39-0 and covered as a -25 point favorite. Laying this kind of wood isn’t usually in our toolbox but sometimes there’s value, even in a 30-point favorite. The total in this game is 54, and we’re not confident that the Knights are going to be able to fulfill their end of the bargain, as this game has shutout written all over it. Penn State’s defensive leaders are ready to step up after a players-only meeting following the Ohio State loss and although they lost in East Lansing, this defense was once the number one scoring D in the country. This is the perfect game for PSU defense to regain its form and an even more perfect opponent to take its frustrations out on. On a cold day in Happy Valley, Rutgers is in for a long day.

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