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Posted at 10:45 AM EST

10:15 PM EST. The Cowboys have been a broken slot machine, as they have covered in their last six outings. Most recently, Wyoming galloped to an outright win in Laramie when the Cowboys were a four-point dog against Colorado State. The collection of all these against-the-spread victories bolster the stock of the Cowboys, especially at this deceptively delicious offering. Two of Wyoming’s three losses came on the road this year. On the first occasion, the Cowboys lost at Iowa as a 12-point pup. Iowa would not even allow Wyoming to score a touchdown, as the Hawkeyes would smoke the Cowboys 24-3. Wyoming’s highly-touted quarterback Josh Allen who some regard as a first-round draft pick was picked off twice and held to under 200 yards passing. The next time we’d see Wyoming on the road, it was a one-point choice at Utah State and won 28-23. Now, we’re not sure if you have seen Utah State play, but the mere fact that Wyoming was just a one-point favorite over those dregs speaks volumes.

Timing is everything when it comes to picking a team to cover or not. Thus, if one were to get behind Wyoming here, it may win but that train left long ago and so those getting behind the dog here have already missed that opportunity. It now would be the right time to sell. Air Force comes in off their worst loss of the season when they were shutout by its comrades Army in a 21-0 blowout last week in Colorado Springs. Overall, the Falcons have gone 2-5 ATS in their previous seven contests. Just like it would be the worst time to buy Wyoming, it is also the worst time to sell on Air Force, which prompts us to step in.

While Wyoming was beating up on dreg after dreg like Gardner Webb, Texas State, Utah State and others, Air Force went 0-4 versus a pretty sporty lineup: powerhouse Michigan, an excellent Navy team, two-time defending Mountain West champ San Diego State and the best New Mexico squad in a decade. Air Force did not look out of place in any of those losses. Never mind the mounting losses -- Air Force has played only a handful of quarters of poor football all year. There's a big disparity between the Falcons' traditional, schedule-blind statistical profile and the picture painted by advanced, opponent-adjusted numbers. We'll see some 5-7 teams in bowls again this year, and the Falcons probably need to win two of their remaining three games to make the postseason. They'll be a short-priced favorite in two of those three games including this one and we’re not about to miss it. Air Force has gone 5-2 or better over the final seven regular-season games in each of the past three seasons. Well-coached teams improve as the season wears on. Air Force has a proven propensity toward that, and this bunch is already a whole lot better than the record suggests. That we only have to spot three points here is a true bargain.

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