Arizona @ USC
USC -7 -102 over Arizona

BEST LINES: Pinnacle -7 -102 Bet365 -7 -105 SportsInteraction -7 -105 5DIMES -7 -105

Posted at 11:15 AM EST

10:45 PM EST. In the span of just over a month, the conversation has drastically changed in the Pac 12. With USC virtually eliminated from College Football Playoff contention with a second loss at Notre Dame where the Men of Troy were trounced 49-14, the discussion has shifted from whether the Trojans will win a national championship to whether or not USC will even win the conference. This game will answer that question clearly, as the winner of this contest takes the inside track to represent the South division in the annual Pac 12 Championship Game. Arizona was one of the least likely outfits many would expect to be in such a position. And just over a month ago, such reluctance seemed justifiable. Then came Khalil Tate.

Since taking the reins of the offense, the sophomore sensation has transformed Arizona into a legitimate threat overnight. Tate now has four starts under his belt this season at quarterback and since then, Arizona has won four straight games. Over that span, Tate has also been credited with four consecutive Pac 12 Offensive Player of the Week Awards. Tate became the first player in Pac 12 history to do so and he didn’t achieve this against nominal competition either. He led the Wildcats past the 2016 South division winner Colorado in Boulder (45-42), UCLA (47-30), California in Strawberry Canyon (45-44 OT), and a then-ranked #15 Washington State (58-37). Washington State was as high as #8 in some polls this season and is better known as the team that handed USC its first loss when the Trojans were still receiving all kinds of lofty prognostications. However, Tate and Arizona made an example out of the Cougars last Saturday in Phoenix while closing as a pick-em. A result of that magnitude is enough on its own to conjure up a huge market reaction

In addition to those accolades, Tate has already gained a team-leading 926 yards on the ground while also producing a team-leading eight rushing touchdowns. Tate has also thrown for 784 yards and six touchdowns through the air. His play has left many pundits drooling and a chosen few have even gone as far as to mention Tate as a contender for the Heisman Trophy. In addition, overtures were conveyed as to whether or not Arizona can make it to the Rose Bowl. Arizona has also emerged in the top-25 for the first time this season. That’s a spot we like to target because outfits in this position are now under the national microscope. For Arizona, this is amplified by all the other aforementioned narratives that have ultimately driven the stock on this club through the ceiling.

By contrast, the stock in USC is quite low because they have been one of 2017’s biggest disappointments so far. The Trojans have also not been a profitable economical choice this year either. However, in this market, the Trojans may actually be undervalued thanks to all the hype that is surrounding the Wildcats. With all Arizona has achieved, they look way too easy to cover and are quite enticing taking back a full converted TD. Forget whatever you're hearing about how USC doesn't have sufficiently good players (outside of its QB) or scheme. It ain't about the Xs and the Os and it ain't about the Jimmies and the Joes either. It's about the collective intangibles and how the whole thing comes together. The real story with Arizona is that the 2017 Wildcats weren't built for success from the beginning. We're not necessarily anxious to fade this crew every week, but we guarantee that if there was ever a week to fade them, this would be it. 

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Our Pick

USC -7 -102 (Risking 2.04 units - To Win: 2.00)