Wisconsin @ INDIANA
#368 INDIANA +11½ -106 over Wisconsin

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Posted at 11:00 AM EST

12:00 PM EST. QB Peyton Ramsey left last week’s game at Maryland twice during the second half with what appeared to be a lower body injury. IU coach Tom Allen said as recently as Wednesday that he was unsure if Ramsey would be able to play against Wisconsin, so the door could be open for Richard Lagow to make his first start since Sept. 30 at Penn State. The senior performed admirably during last weekend’s second half, completing 12 of his 21 passes for 131 yards so the QB situation does not concern us. It’s also factored into the line.

Both backfields are ailing. Wisconsin freshman Jonathan Taylor, the Big Ten’s leading rusher, left last week’s game with a leg injury and is categorized as questionable. Indiana’s Morgan Ellison and Mike Majette missed last week’s game with unspecified injuries. Whether they’ll be available has not been announced. Taylor would be the biggest loss of the bunch but again, none of that matters to us. We’re merely setting the table for a lot of questionable injuries today. Our focus from now until the season ends will be to fade the Badgers, a team that has played one of the softest Power 5 slates in the country.

Most of the media talk we've heard surrounding the Badgers this offseason centers around what a consistent machine the Wisconsin program has become. Wisconsin has never won by out-recruiting the rest of the Big Ten, which means the coaching has to be excellent. There seems to be a general assumption that it is, but while we think Paul Chryst is one of the best pro-style play-callers of his generation, anointing him even a basic success as a head coach is premature. Chryst posted a .500 record at a solid Pitt program before being called home to Madison and while he's lost just three games in each of his first two seasons at his alma mater, it's important to remember that it's still just two years plus with players that another staff recruited. Two years ago, we wrote that Chryst would fail to replicate the accomplishments of the Bret Bielema era and would eventually disappoint, but that the obvious decline wouldn't really begin until he lost rising star Dave Aranda to a bigger job. That happened after just one year, and now Chryst has lost Justin Wilcox as well. The result is a third defensive boss in three years, and while the last guy had coordinated defenses at Boise State, Southern California, Tennessee and Washington, the new guy has coordinated exactly never. Last year, the team was fueled by the suggestions that the schedule was too tough for a big year. Mission accomplished, 2016 doubters proved wrong and they’ve been proved wrong so far this season too or have they? Now ask yourself, the Badgers best win this year came against whom? Purdue? Maryland? Nebraska? Northwestern? Pick one and it doesn’t matter because they mean nothing. You see that #4 beside the Badgers name in the rankings? It’s false, as the Badgers might not even be the fourth best team in the conference but you’ll pay the price of a fourth ranked team in the country here. Upset possibility.

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Our Pick

#368 INDIANA +11½ -106 (Risking 2.12 units - To Win: 2.00)