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Posted at 2:30 PM EST

6:00 PM EST. The Owls opened as a double-digit favorite in some instances. As a result of heavy steam rolling in on The Thundering Herd, that number has dropped dramatically to its current position. Generally, when we see the consensus gravitate to a dog with such vigor, we are forced to take a look more closely at the chalk. Very simply, Florida Atlantic is not known as a football team that spots such lumber against more recognized teams like Marshall. After all, the Owls have not made a bowl appearance since 2008 and have won no more than three games in five of its last six seasons. This is a football team known as a perpetual bottom feeder and perennial cupcake. However, the culture is changing in Fort Lauderdale after the Owls secured the services of one of college football’s most polarizing figures, Lane Kiffin. Though Kiffin may have a nefarious reputation with some parties, his hiring was monumental for a notoriously maligned program such as Florida Atlantic. After all, Kiffin spent time in the NFL as Head Coach of the Oakland Raiders from 2007 to 2008, Tennessee in 2009, and in college at USC from 2011 to 2013. Furthermore, Kiffin served under Nick Saban at Alabama as Offensive Coordinator from 2014 to 2016. He had an influential role in ‘Bama’s success as a stalwart in the College Football Playoff era and helped the Tide capture a National Championship in 2015. With his litany of coaching at the highest levels of football both collegiately and professionally, his acumen has quickly rubbed off on the Owls, as they have won their last four in a row. In doing so, Florida Atlantic has scored 207 points over that span. While we are not in the habit of getting behind these high scoring teams, FAU has been such an irrelevant program for years so the market has not taken notice yet. They are still very much under the radar. Furthermore, Marshall has never lost to FAU before, which also influences the market.

Marshall is getting far too much credit here because of their 6-2 record and because of recent blowouts victories over Cincinnati (38-21), Old Dominion (35-3) and Mid Tennessee State (38-10). Cinci and MTSU have some market credibility but that, too, is misdirected, as Marshall’s six wins this year have come against teams who are now a combined 13-35. This is a Marshall team that at home, hung on for dear life against Miami (Ohio) and won ugly over Kent State. The Herd are out of the frying pan and into the fryer, as they will have to take on a red-hot FAU program in an atypically-animated environment, as the Owls will host what could be a landmark game for its program. FAU will be playing for bowl eligibility and the ability to keep their unblemished conference record alive and well in unprecedented fashion. The Owls are poised to usher in a new era to the Conference USA and we get to step in on them as a clearly undervalued choice. Lastly, we must point out that Marshall’s over/under win total this year was 5. In a weak conference, that’s a bold statement by the oddsmakers but Marshall has exceeded that already. Truth be told, Marshall is also a weak team that caught lightning in a bottle and now they’re about to be exposed for the second week in a row. Swallow the points.

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