Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 11:15 AM EST.
8:00 PM EST. We are going to continue our attack on Colorado State, as we are in position to take back a short-priced favorite due to an overreaction from last week’s easy win and cover by CSU. Many analysts and prognosticators have bolstered the claim that this year may be the year that Colorado State takes a step forward. After lambasting Oregon State in its season opener, Colorado State’s 58-point offensive spectacle provided plenty of credence to back up some of those lofty claims.
Colorado comes in off a stellar season in 2016 but the closing acts were filled with disappointment. After putting together a resurgent campaign that saw Colorado accumulate 10 victories for the first time since 2001, the Buffs would culminate their efforts with two blowout losses suffered in the Pac-12 Championship and the Valero Alamo Bowl to Washington and Oklahoma State respectively. Coupling that with the loss of a four-year starter at quarterback in Sefo Liufau to graduation, along with eight other defensive starters, the Rams appear to be in position to pull off the minor upset but we wouldn’t be so fast to pull the trigger on the Rams.
The market assessment of this contest is no fluke. The Rocky Mountain Showdown is a high-profile affair played at a venue that plays host to the Denver Broncos. Thus, the oddsmakers are aware that this is the Friday Night marquee matchup with lots of market money at stake. The books are bound to be sharper so the initial offering of the Rams getting eight points was no mistake. Nevertheless, the offering was quickly gobbled up at a price that seemed too good to be true. Chances are that it is. CSU laying waste to Oregon State is not much of a statement. Oregon State went just 4-8 in 2016 and won just three games in Pac-12 play against an atypical Oregon, an Arizona team that went 1-8 in conference play, and against a very accommodating California defense that still required overtime to declare a winner. This is also an Oregon State team that fielded a defensive operation that gave up 30.5 points per game and surrendered 429.2 yards of total offense per contest, as well. Colorado State will be taking a step up in competition and you can bet that Buffs Coach Mike McIntyre won’t be buying into the hype machine surrounding Mike Bobo and company in the same manner is which this market is. The Rams defense again looked vulnerable in allowing 456 yards to Oregon State but the market is focusing in on the final score, which is something we’ll try to take advantage of. Mike McIntyre also has film on Colorado State’s win last week while Mike Bobo has no such luxury.
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COLORADO -3½ -102 (Risking 2.04 units - To Win: 2.00)