Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

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Purdue -9 over N.C. State

State Farm Stadium - Glendale, AZ

Men's Basketball Championship - Final Four

Streaming: TBS

6:09 PM EST. This is the first trip to the Final Four for the Boilermakers of Purdue in their 19 seasons under head coach Matt Painter, which is remarkable (not in a good way), considering just how good they have been and the 15 NCAA Tournament appearances they’ve made with him as the head man in charge. Purdue is one of only two #1 seeds remaining, with juggernaut UConn being the other, but the luster that comes with such a ranking isn’t what it once was.

To get here, Purdue ran through #16 Grambling State (78-50), #8 Utah State (106-67), #5 Gonzaga (80-68), and #2 Tennessee (72-66), with 7’4” Zach Edey leading the way. Edey has put the Boilermakers on his back throughout this tournament, as he’s averaging 30 points and over 16 rebounds a game thus far. That includes a 40-point effort in the Elite Eight, and while Edey and Purdue are happy to be at this stage, the Boilermakers have their eye on a bigger prize: “All year we've talked about winning the national championship and now we have an opportunity to do that. Everybody's going to take that seriously and really lock in here."

In a year where much of the bracket fell into place as it was supposed to, the Wolfpack of NC State caused the most disruption at a #11 seed, having knocked off #6 Texas Tech (80-67), #14 Oakland (79-73, OT), #2 Marquette (67-58), and #4 Duke (76-64). That is a hell of a run and one that has gotten the Wolfpack a ton of love from the media and the market. A big reason for that love is NC State’s infectious leader, DJ Burns Jr., who has had his coming-out party the last three weeks, as he won the MVP award for both the South Region of this NCAA Tournament and the ACC Tournament, which the Wolfpack won to punch their ticket to The Big Dance.

One of the big reasons the Wolfpack was able to make it to the Final Four is that going back to the ACC Tournament, their opponents have shot just 40 percent from the field. That’s a six-game sample, and while their defense deserves some credit, the Wolfpack also benefited greatly after Duke (25%), Marquette (13%), and Texas Tech (23%) all went ice-cold from beyond the arc. In their game against Oakland in which the Golden Grizzlies hit 34% of their treys, NC State was pushed to overtime, and that Round of 32 matchup could have gone either way.

It might sound cliché to say, but if the Boilermakers hit their three-pointers they are going to have a great shot to win this game going away and cover this number. However, even if Purdue does not hit its threes, there are many paths for it to cash this ticket. The Boilermakers have made a habit of playing up to their competition and they thrive against non-conference ranked and Power Six schools, winning 21 straight games in such a scenario. While the points Purdue is spotting today look significant on paper, considering the quality gap between these two teams, it’s a pittance. For some perspective, UConn is #1 in the power rankings, while Alabama is #12, and UConn is a double-digit favorite today. Meanwhile, Purdue is ranked #3 in those power rankings while NC State is 43rd, which takes into account their recent success. Everything has to fall the Wolfpack's way for them to keep this one close, but all signs point to the clock striking midnight on this Cinderella. Swallow the points.

Sherwood

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