Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle +7 -101 BET365 +7 -110 Sportsinteraction +7 -110  888Sport +7 -110

N.C. State +7 -101 over Duke

Little Caesars Arena - Detroit, MI

Men's Basketball Championship - Midwest Region - Elite 8

Streaming: CBS

5:05 PM EST. You will hear again and again that the Wolfpack of N.C. State are not supposed to be here, as they were written off as an underachiever before going on their improbable run through the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) Tournament and punching their tickets to The Big Dance. N.C. State stumbled into the ACC tourney after losing its final four games of the regular season, which was likely to leave them on the outside looking in as a bubble team, but they ran through that conference tournament and even took out Duke in the quarterfinals. The rest is history, as the Wolfpack won five games that week, including #1 seeded North Carolina in the final, 84-76.

Thus far in the NCAA Tournament, the Wolfpack took out Texas Tech by double digits (80-67), Oakland in overtime (79-73), and finally, they sent #2 seeded Marquette home after a 67-58 final on Friday night. The Wolfpack were a +7½ point underdog to that Marquette side, which is in range to the points that they are taking back today against a #4 seed in Duke.

With three #1’s already sent home this weekend, including Houston, whom the Dukies disposed of on Friday night, the Blue Devils are the biggest name brand, blue-blood team left in the field. To get here, the Blue Devils took out Vermont in a route, 64-47, annihilated James Madison (93-55), and finally, ended #1 Houston’s National Championship bid in a 54-51 nail-biter. It’s worth noting that while the win is nice, Duke benefited greatly from Houston going cold from beyond the arc with just 25% shooting from downtown, as well as forgetting how to hit free throws, with a pathetic 53% clip. If Houston makes one more three-pointer or a few free throws, there’s a great chance we’d be talking about them today and not Duke.

The Blue Devils were a +4-point pooch to Houston, and now they are up to +7 at some outfits, as the market hammers the only team they are familiar with in this game. We get it, but that is a significant double-digit swing and a change in roles that cannot be ignored as Duke goes from the team playing with house money and nothing to lose to the team with all of the pressure on them. Regardless of where the chips fall here, all of the value is on the Wolf Pack, and the prudent play is to take back the inflated points they are being given, which is precisely how we’re going to play it.

Sherwood

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