Posted at 3:30 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle +172 BET365 +170 Sportsinteraction +165   888Sport +170

Duke +172 over Houston

American Airlines Center - Dallas, TX

Men's Basketball Championship - South Region - Sweet 16

Streaming: CBS

9:39 PM EST. Last night we saw a game that featured a top defense against a scorching hot offense, and in the end, the offensive advantage won out with Illinois sending Iowa State’s #1 defense packing. Tonight, we have a similar scenario, as #1 seeded Houston brings the #2 defensive unit up against a Duke Blue Devils backcourt that is scorching right now under Jared McCain. McCain had a Round of 32 to remember, as he potted eight triples in the Dukies' 93-55 rout of James Madison, where he put up 30. McCain led the Blue Devils with 81 three-pointers this season, and he does not figure to hold back tonight.

We’re not going to take anything away from the #1 seeded Cougars of Houston, and they can, of course, win this game going away if the Dukies are cold or fail to clean up on the glass, but that's precisely the point. That’s a big “if”. The Cougars gave up chances on the perimeter and were outworked by Texas A&M on the boards in the Round of 32, and they almost went home early because of it with the Aggies taking the Cougs to overtime before Houston won, 100-95. The ghosts of tournaments past may haunt Houston here as well as they failed to make it past #5 Miami in last year’s Sweet 16 as a #1 seed.

To an unsuspecting market, a #1 seed is spotting just a couple of possessions to a #5, even if it is Duke, could look too good to pass up, but that line tells us all we need to know about their chances to win this game. Throw the seedings in the garbage where they belong because the oddsmakers are screaming from the hilltops that Duke is a live pooch here. This game boils down to one thing, and it’s all about the Dukies' ability to hit their shots. We cannot predict if McCain and company will continue to drain buckets at will, but we do know that because of the high variance nature of that proposition, there is tremendous value to be had in the Blue Devils to make it to the Elite Eight with an outright win. Keep the points, we don’t need ‘em.

Sherwood

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------