Posted at 3:30 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

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Creighton +61 over Tennessee

Little Caesars Arena - Detroit, MI

Men's Basketball Championship - Midwest Region - Sweet 16

Streaming: TBS/truTV

10:09 PM EST. Forget the X’s and O’s; forget the paths these teams took to this Sweet 16; forget anything you’ve heard about how the Volunteers of Tennessee are going to bully the Bluejays of Creighton because this nightcap is all about Vols coach Rick Barnes and his propensity to flame out when expectations are at their highest.

Barnes has now made it to his sixth Sweet 16, but it is beyond this point that has eluded him most, with just two trips to the Elite Eight (2006, 2008) and just one Final Four in 2003. For those who don’t want to do the math, it’s been 16 years and 11 failed attempts since a Barnes-coached team made it to the second weekend of the NCAAs. Barnes has had some of the most talented teams in this tournament over the years, but he has not been able to lead them to the promised land. Coaching matters when the line between winning and losing is so fine, and to that point, the Vols are at a tremendous disadvantage.

The Bluejays are led by Greg McDermott, who took these Bluejays to the Elite Eight last season as a #3 seed, and he provides such a coaching advantage here that it cannot be quantified. We know the Bluejays are taking heat for barely making it out of the Round of 32 versus 11-seeded Oregon, but we like that the Bluejays got a scare. Meanwhile, the Vols coasted after pushing around Saint Peter’s, but they struggled against Texas, and that was a one-point ball game with less than a minute to play, yet nobody is talking about that.

The Bluejays (#11 in the power rankings) are a class or two above the Longhorns (#25), and yet they are a +3½-point pooch to the Vols, whereas Texas was a +6-point underdog in Round 2. If that doesn’t show just how undervalued Creighton is here, we don’t know what does. The coaching mismatch here is real, and if Barnes takes the Vols to the Elite Eight, so be it, but all the value in this game is on the Bluejays, who just might be the better team, man for man. Wrong side favored.

Sherwood

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