Posted at 9:30 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle -4½ -106 BET365 -4½ -110 Sportsinteraction -4½ -110   888Sport -4½ -110 

Baylor -4½ over Clemson

FedExForum - Memphis, TN

Men's Basketball Championship - South Region - 2nd Round

Steaming: TNT

4:10 PM EST. New Mexico was a very popular first-round selection, as the Aggies were both media and analytics darlings. Rarely is there a consensus in the market between the talking heads and the spreadsheets, but New Mexico was that exception, and because of that, the market faded the Tigers of Clemson with glee on Friday. Considering the opening to this write-up, you probably know where this is going, as Clemson would roll easily to a lopsided, 77-56, win that vaulted the Tigers into a very tough second-round pairing with #3 seed Baylor.

From a matchup perspective, New Mexico was tailor-made for Clemson to roll over, as the Aggies played fast and loose, relying on their bread and butter in the three-point shot, but those shots did not fall for them. With Clemson limiting New Mexico to just 3-of-23 from downtown, it's no wonder the Tigers didn’t win that game by 30. However, Baylor is the polar opposite to the Aggies in pace, where New Mexico is ranked ninth in adjusted tempo, the Bears are a much more plodding 283 in that department.

That’s not to say that Baylor does not take its looks from downtown; it does, as they are the 4th best shooting three-point team in the nation at 39.9%. The Bears feature so much depth on their roster, that it’s almost unfair, as they feature three NBA quality players as well as three players who have made more than 30 threes this year with those shots hitting at a 34% clip. By contrast, the Tigers have one such player in Joe Girard III, and if he is not firing on all cylinders, Clemson is in big trouble. Even if Girard and the rest of the Tigers play their best game here, they are ill-equipped to hang with Baylor if this game turns into a shootout.

If the potential shooting barrage were not intimidating enough, the Bears also feature a 7-foot center in Yves Missi, who averages 11 points and 5.7 rebounds per game. Furthermore, the Bears typically force bad shots from the outside from which they are able to clean up the mess under the basket and make you pay in transition. There is but one path for the Tigers to keep this game close, and that is to count on the Bears being ice cold, just as New Mexico was, but that is a fool’s errand. Meanwhile, the ways in which the Bears can make the Tigers pay for anything other than an otherworldly night shooting are too many to count. Underlay.

Sherwood

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