Posted at 9:30 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle +14 -106 BET365 +14 -110 Sportsinteraction +14 -110   888Sport +14 -110 

Northwestern +14 -106 over UConn

Barclays Center – Brooklyn, NY

NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament Second Round

Streaming: truTV

7:45 PM EST. What exactly does Northwestern have to do to get a little bit of respect here? After all, the Wildcats grinded out an impressive 77-65 victory over last year’s Final Four participant Florida Atlantic as a four-point underdog and managed to hold the Owls to 19% from three-point range and 39% from the field overall. Such a stout defensive showing should speak volumes into the quality that the Wildcats have to offer, but instead they are being overlooked and undervalued because of who they are playing in the second round. Now, we get an opportunity to once again move in on a potent underdog taking back a sweet amount of points. 

Northwestern’s win over FAU is not holding a lot of weight in the market because FAU is not a household name. Not even close. FAU has about as much market credibility as Fake News while UConn is college basketball royalty, not to mention the reigning and defending national champion who just so happens to also be the top seed overall in this tournament.

In terms of recency bias, Connecticut has also crushed the number as of late. The Huskies have covered in 10 of their last 12 outings and they cruised to a 39-point victory in the first round of action against Stetson despite laying an absurd tag of 27½-points to the Hatters.

What we have here is a UConn team with insane market clout paying out like a broken slot machine, against a team with very little market respect. Make no mistake that whether or not the Wildcats cover, they are taking back inflated points and our job is to find those market inefficiencies. It doesn’t mean Northwestern will cover, it only means they are supposed to cover.

Against the Owls, Northwestern outrebounded FAU 39 to 33 and also caused Florida Atlantic to turn the ball over 21 times to the Wildcats’ 12. This is especially significant considering that Florida Atlantic was ranked 53rd in the country in rebounding and typically commits only 11 turnovers per outing. Northwestern imposed its will on FAU and turned the match-up into a defensive-oriented contest where the body blows added up and the ‘Cats were able to advance. Northwestern is a crew capable of hijacking the rock -- and your bracket and our model recognizes it as threatening to Goliaths.

Sherwood

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