Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle +9 -106 BET365 +9-110 Sportsinteraction +9-110   888Sport +9-110 

Dayton +9 over  Arizona

Men's Basketball Championship - West Region - 2nd Round

Delta Center - Salt Lake City, UT

Steaming: CBS

12:45 PM EST. We don’t blame you if you had already crossed the Flyers of Dayton off your March Madness bracket as they were down 17 points to Nevada with less than eight minutes to play on Thursday night before going bananas with a 24-4 run to end that game and stun the Wolfpack to win a game that looked as though it was totally lost. The perception is that Nevada choked away that game, but credit to where it is due to the Flyers who did not quit, which is a quality that is valued when backing an underdog taking back a significant pile of points as the Flyers are today.

Matchup-wise, the Flyers are built to compete there with the mighty Wildcats of Arizona, who play one of the highest tempo games in Division I hoops, ranking 16th in adjusted tempo. The Wildcats prefer to run-and-gun at will, and if they are hot, they are going to do some damage, but if their shots aren’t falling, Dayton’s proficiency on the glass, and its ability to grind things down to a halt a team that ranks 336th in adjusted tempo are both qualities that are conducive to taking down a top seed.

#1 Arizona had its own slow start against #16 Long Beach State on Thursday night, but that game was played late, and when the dust settled the box score showed the Wildcats winning with ease, 85-65. A big reason for Arizona’s ability to pull away is because Long Beach State (LBS) also plays an uptempo game (24th in adjusted tempo), but they failed to hit their shots and eventually, the Wildcats were able to pull away. That is not likely to happen today, as the Flyers are not built to engage in such shenanigans, and head coach Anthony Grant knows it would be a fool’s errand to try and “outscore” Arizona, as his team's ability to slow it down and score in transition, the Flyers 12th in points per play in that department should serve them well against an Arizona side that is weak in transition defense, ranking just 323 of 362 Division I programs.

So much has to go right for the Wildcats to cover this inflated number, while the Flyers are going to need everything to go wrong for them not to keep it close. They say defense wins championships and while a national title might be a bit much to ask of Dayton, penciling the Flyers into the Sweet 16 is not. Make no mistake, Dayton is battle-tested and they are a potential nightmare for any team that relies on hot shooting to cover an inflated pile of points, the #1 seeded Wildcats included.

Sherwood

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