Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

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Michigan State +158 over North Carolina

Spectrum Center - Charlotte, NC

Men's Basketball Championship - West Region - 2nd Round

Streaming: CBS

5:30 PM EST. The #1 seeds partied like it was 1999, you know, the olden days, when the #16 seeds had no shot to compete and the Round of 64 for a top side was nothing more than a glorified practice. That is what the First Round felt like here in 2024, as #1’s UConn, Purdue, Houston and of course, the Tar Heels of North Carolina (UNC), all rolled easily, with the smallest margin of victory being the 28 points that separated UNC and Wagner. That’s a far cry from recent years in which we finally saw a pair of #1 seeds fall on opening day, and a Final Four last year that did not feature a #1 seed.

With the #1 dominating, we can’t help but notice the seemingly small pile of points the Tar Heels are spotting today when compared to not only the other #1’s but some of the #2’s as well. For some perspective, #1’s UConn is -14½ over #9 Northwestern, Houston is -10 over #9 Texas A&M, and Purdue is -11 over #8 Utah State, meanwhile, #2 Arizona is -9 over #7 Dayton and #2 Tennessee is -6½ over #7 Texas. How can the mighty Tar Heels, in all their glory and popularity both in the media and the market, be spotting less than two possessions against a #9 seed?

If the numbers didn’t make it clear, North Carolina is not worthy of their #1 seed and the analytics back that up as they are just ninth in the power rankings. Not bad, but not #1 territory, as UNC is the only one of the four #1 not to be ranked in the top 4. In front of the Tar Heels in the power rankings are three #2 seeds (Tennessee, Iowa State, Arizona) and a #4 (Auburn). Ironically, as over-seeded as the Tar Heels are, the Spartans of Michigan State are under-seeded. Sparty had a rough end to the season losing 5-of-7 games, but despite that, the analytics love them as the 16 ranked team in the power rankings. Of course, the underlying numbers are not the be-all and end-all, but they help paint a picture as to why this line is what it is.

Now to what cannot be quantified, which is just how much pressure is on the Tar Heels, who play today in their home state (just a couple of hours from campus)to not only make the Final Four, but win a national championship. Meanwhile, by the sharpest of contrasts, Michigan State is playing with house money. Sparty was written off after a disappointing regular season, but that doesn’t matter now, as head coach Tom Izzo is no stranger to making a deep run in the NCAAs. All signs here point to #1 North Carolina going down, and we are not going to ignore them. We’re taking that offramp and we’re going right to the cashier's window to wager on Sparty to make the Sweet 16.

Sherwood

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