Posted at 9:30 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle +4 -105 BET365 +4 -110 Sportsinteraction  +4 -110   888Sport +4 -110 

Northwestern +4  over Florida Atlantic

Men's Basketball Championship - East Region - 1st Round

Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY

Streaming: CBS

12:15 PM EST. The first game of Day Two of the NCAA Tournament takes us to Brooklyn, where the #9 Wildcats of Northwestern (NW) will face off against one of the surprise schools of last year’s tournament, the Owls of Florida Atlantic University (FAU). Let’s start with the Owls, who are fueled by the momentum of their Final Four appearance a year ago, which saw them overranked and inside the top 10 when the season began. Expectations were high for the Owls this season, but they underachieved, finishing second in the American Athletic Conference (AAC) and falling out of the polls in February, never to return.

FAU returned their entire roster from last season's improbable run to the Final Four, and there is an expectation in the media and the market that they are going to be able to “turn it on” here and return to form, but wishing for such a scenario is like chasing the dragon. FAU finished the year at 25-8, and they were fortunate to receive an at-large bid after losing to Temple in the AAC semifinals last Saturday. We’ll note that even if FAU were to return to form, they are not sneaking up on anybody this year. Of their eight losses, two of them came to teams outside the top 100 in Bryant (147) and Charlotte (107), while they also lost to a school outside the top 200 in Florida Gulf Coast (241).

The Wildcats went 21-11, but they played the 45th toughest schedule in the nation after competing in the meat grinder that was the Big Ten (B1G). The Wildcats advanced to the B1G Tournament semifinals where they lost to Wisconsin, but there is little shame in dropping a game to a conference opponent who was also NCAA Tournament bound. Northwestern finished the year going just 1-4, but those losses came against quality conference competition in Iowa (52), Minnesota (76), and Michigan State (16), who showed in the early game yesterday just how dangerous and underrated a B1G school can be in this tournament after they defeated Mississippi State, 69-51.

The Owls have a newfound tournament pedigree after their surprise run last season, but it is Northwestern who features the best player on the court, and it’s not close, as Boo Buie is capable of winning this game on his own. Buie, a graduating senior, became NW’s leading scorer this season, and he bleeds Wildcat purple. There is a perception that the Wildcats are banged up, as guard Ty Berry and his 11.6 points per game have been out of the lineup since February 7, but when he went down, it was “next man up,” as veteran Princeton transfer Ryan Langborg filled the void.

Prior to Berry going down, Langborg averaged a respectable 10.1 PPG and 2.1 assists, but after, he went off, averaging 15.3 points a night. We’re not suggesting the Wildcats are better without Berry, but the way they've rallied around his injury to still make the cut and get an at-large bid to March Madness should not be ignored. Furthermore, the Wildcats feature another double-digit scorer in junior guard Brooks Barnhizer (14.6). Northwestern is ranked 92nd in field goal percentage, eighth in three-point percentage and they play a slow-paced game ranking 342 in adjusted tempo which should allow them to dictate the pace over FAU who rank 139 in that department.

In a tournament where strong guard play is king, the Wildcats hold a major edge. The oddsmakers opened this game as a near toss-up (FAU -1½), but the efficient market pounced and now NW is taking back two possessions at the time of posting. The premium that must be paid to back a “known” commodity in FAU is real. Win, lose, or draw, all the value here is on the Wildcats.

Sherwood

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