Posted at 9:30 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

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Baylor -14½ over Colgate

Men's Basketball Championship - West Region - 1st Round

FedExForum, Memphis, TN

Streaming: TNT

12:40 PM EST. The Raiders of Colgate have been staples in the NCAA Tournament, as they will make their fourth straight appearance after winning another Patriot League championship by Molly Walloping Lehigh, 74-55, with that game taking place on March 13. We’ll pore over all how Colgate is ill-equipped to compete here, but we’d be remiss if we didn’t mention that it has been nine days since they last played. Would it be out of line to suggest that the Raiders could be sluggish in this early start time considering the significant layoff?

On the court, the Raiders played one of the weakest schedules in the nation (340-of-362), and they did nearly all of their damage playing their undermanned Patriot League brethren. It’s worth noting that while they made it here again, the 2023-24 Raiders are not as strong as those teams that came before them. By the way, those teams didn’t fare well in the NCAAs, getting bounced in the first round in 2023 by Texas (81-61), 2022 by Wisconsin (67-30), and 2021 (Arkansas, 85-68). While they were a #14 or #15 seed each of those times, that is no excuse for a poor outing, as we see teams in those seeds win outright year after year, including yesterday with #14 Oakland knocking off Kentucky, while #13 Samford pushed Kansas in a four-point loss.

Talent-wise, man for man, there is no comparison here, as Baylor features three NBA-quality players, but the point spread is the “great equalizer.” So the question is, can Colgate hold its own and keep this game in range of the double digits they are being offered? Perhaps they can, but this is also a bad stylistic matchup for the Raiders, as the Bears play a tough zone, which Colgate has had limited exposure to this season. Only once did the Raiders play a team that showed them zone looks on 10 possessions or more, and that was versus Bucknell in the Patriot League semifinals. The Raiders survived that game, 68-65, but they looked lost and almost went down, as Bucknell challenged them gate-to-wire and did not let up as a +12½-point pooch.

When playing NCAA Tournament participants, Arizona, Illinois, and Yale, Colgate could only muster point totals of 55, 57, and 50 points, respectively. If that wasn’t concerning enough, the Raiders also put up a pittance of points in games versus Gardner-Webb (59), Weber State (57), Lehigh (60 & 63), Bucknell (62), and American (64). Just how many points are the Raiders going to need today to keep it close with a Bears side that can score in bunches? The Raiders are a plodding (253 in adjusted tempo) low-post team, which is not conducive to creating enough chances to keep things interesting here. If and when (the most likely scenario) Baylor goes up early, it’s going to be a boat race, and we figure to be in an advantageous position to cash this ticket.

Sherwood

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