Posted at 9:30 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle -6½ -109 BET365 -6½ -110 Sportsinteraction -6½ -110   888Sport -6½ -110 

San Diego State -6½ over UAB

Spokane Arena – Spokane, WA

Men's Basketball Championship - East Region - 1st Round

Streaming: TNT

1:45 PM EST. The good-old 5 vs. 12 match-up is one that draws a lot of attention from the market because historically speaking, it has been a well of upsets and also a profitable venture for betting the underdog. The match-up between the Blazers and the Aztecs serve as a prime case study, as #12 UAB opened up taking back 7½-points and the money has not stopped pouring in on Alabama-Birmingham since then. Moreover, UAB is an affable 20-12-1 against the number on the year while San Diego State sits 13-18-1 against the spread by comparison. To summarize, we have a profitable side taking back a tempting amount of points in a profitable position against a non-profitable side in an adverse position, historically. While the market views the former as the place to mine for value, we, as contrarian bettors, would argue the opposite. Circumstances such as these position the chalk to be spotting a deflated number and we have to like that kind of jazz after taking a closer look under the hood at both sides.

We can spit out all sorts of metrics but every tenable edge rests with SDSU whether it be the huge discrepancy in defensive prowess between both sides (San Diego State ranks 9th in defensive efficiency according to KenPom while UAB sits at 202nd), the difference in schedule (San Diego State played the ninth toughest non-conference schedule while UAB ranks 136th in non-conference SOS), and the huge gap overall between both parties according to KenPom (SDSU is ranked 21 in his rankings whilst UAB is 106). While this pairing has procured many shockers, not every 5 vs. 12 match-up is created equal and this one can be filed under the lopsided category. The best part is we get the Aztecs at a reduced price. You can sign us up for that every single time.

Sherwood

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