Posted at 9:30 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle +12½ -103 BET365 +12½ -110 Sportsinteraction +12½ -110   888Sport +12½ -110 

Yale +12½ over Auburn

Men's Basketball Championship - East Region - 1st Round

Spokane Veterans Memorial Arena, Spokane, WA

Streaming: TNT

4:15 PM EST. The Tigers of Auburn are a trendy pick to go to the Final Four, as the perception in the market is that they are underseeded and have been disrespected by the selection committee after winning the Southern Conference (SEC) Tournament, knocking off Florida in the final, 86-67. We’ll note that Auburn’s path to the SEC title was greatly aided by the efforts of Mississippi State, who took down #1 seed Tennessee in the quarterfinals.

The top three teams seeded in the SEC Tournament (#1 Tennessee, #2 Kentucky, and #3 Alabama) all went down in the quarterfinals which left #4 Auburn as the best team alongside #6 Florida, #7 Texas A&M, and #9 Mississippi State. The SEC sent Tennessee, Kentucky, Alabama, Florida, Texas A&M, and Miss State to the NCAA Tournament, but three of the four teams that played on day one did not fare well, as Miss State was whacked by Michigan State, Kentucky fell to Oakland, and A&M was smashed by South Carolina. Only Tennessee, who was a -21½-point favorite, would win their opening-round game. Perhaps it was just a blip, and the SEC is as strong as it’s given credit for, or perhaps, it is an overvalued Power Six conference that got by on reputation and not talent.

Back to the Tigers, who went just 1-4 versus the top-25 this season, while not winning one game against a top-10 school. Auburn’s best win came against an Alabama side that overachieved considering its propensity to ignore the defensive side of the ball with glee. The Tiger did most of their damage beating up the weak basement of the SEC with all of their wins both in and out of conference coming by double digits, but those numbers only falsely inflate the Tigers' stat lines and provide the talking head with easy fodder, but don’t buy in. Auburn might not lose this game, but they should be on the radar for a fade in the Round of 32 where they’d play either San Diego State or UAB. Despite the double digits they are spotting here and the expectation they’ll win this game, that date in the second round is no guarantee.

On paper, this is a good matchup for the Bulldogs of Yale, as they will look to slow things down, while Auburn is going to try and run and gun with as many possessions as possible, but if the Tigers’ shots aren’t falling, the Bulldogs are the kind of team that will make you pay on the defensive glass. The Bulldogs play a grind-out game, and they are not likely to crumble when the Tigers try and turn up the tempo. Yale ranks 327th in the nation in adjusted tempo and 308th in three-point rate allowed, which increases the level of variance, which only favors Yale and their chances to not only keep up with the Tigers but give themselves a chance to win this game outright, however, we are delighted to take back the inflated points being offered up here, as all the pressure is on Auburn to prove that they were truly disrespected by the selection committee. It remains to be seen if that perception becomes reality.

Sherwood

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