Posted at 9:30 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle +12 ½ -104 BET365 +12½ -110 Sportsinteraction +12½ -110   888Sport +12½ -110 

Vermont +12½ over Duke

Barclays Center – Brooklyn, NY

Men's Basketball Championship - South Region - 1st Round

Steaming: CBS

7:10 PM EST. There is a lot to chew on here but we’ll start with the obvious: when one gets behind the Blue Devils, one can expect to pay a premium to do so, especially in March Madness. This is the time of year that college basketball attracts millions of people ---that know nothing about the sport ----get in on the action and Duke is always an attraction. They are college hoops royalty.

Make no mistake that Duke is good. They always are and they have also been trending up for the past month and have the talent and chops to make a Final Four. Duke is balanced, ranking in the top 10 nationally in offense and the top 25 nationally in defense. Duke is not a turnover-forcing defense, nor a shot-blocking team but the Blue Devils do a solid job guarding the 3-point line and do not turn the ball over on the offensive end. Duke should win but covering an inflated price is another story.

Unlike Duke, Vermont is not exactly a household name unless one is an America East enthusiast. If that be the case, then one is intimately acquainted with the Tom Brennan-led bunch as their prominence in the conference is akin to Duke’s in all of college basketball. Very simply, the Catamounts are prone to be overlooked here but the Catamounts hold themselves to an elite standard. This was echoed in Coach Brennan’s sentiment when he stated that his club must be taken seriously by Duke. Moreover, it is telling that Vermont is not just happy to be here but they have come to do some carnage. An underdog of this nature is especially dangerous when being offered inflated points but that is the situation we have taking shape in front of us.

Vermont has been laying waste to everything it has come across. The Cats have won 19 of their last 20 games but this is almost certainly overlooked because of what conference UVM plays in and the fact that their opponents don’t live in the limelight like Duke’s counterparts. Furthermore, Duke has been a profitable wager this year at 18-14 against the number, while the Catamounts have failed to cover in their last four outings. Failing to cover in four straight creates a penchant for the underdog to be even more undervalued.

The America East champion is a solid defensive team that can really pass, cut and take care of the ball. Vermont has one of the lowest turnover rates in the country and plays at a deliberate tempo. It is easier to slow a game down than to speed one up, and Vermont can get its tempo well enough to beat quality teams like Duke. This game is in Brooklyn and so it will be a Duke crowd, which has also been factored into the number but no matter how you break it down, the underdog is not getting enough respect in this inflated price and we’re on it. 

Sherwood

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