Posted at 9:30 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

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Wisconsin -5 over James Madison

Men's Basketball Championship - South Region - 1st Round

Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY

Streaming: CBS

9:40 PM EST. The Dukes of James Madison are one of the trendy #12 over #5 picks that the media and the market love to eat up, and we get it, as there is nothing sexy about Wisconsin, but that is precisely the point. It’s easy to get excited about a 31-win team like James Madison, but a deep dive shows that they played one of the weakest non-conference schedules in the Field of 64, as it ranks just 342nd of 362 ranked Division I programs.

The Dukes hold weak wins over Kent State (172), Howard (279), Radford (229), Fresno State (231), Buffalo (348), Keystone (non-Div I), Old Dominion (287) thrice, Hampton (341), Coppin State (361), Morgan State (334), Texas State (180) twice, South Alabama (224), UL Monroe (298), Marshall (238) twice, Coastal Carolina (314) twice, Georgia Southern (280) twice, and Georgia State (217) twice.

The only notable win that the Dukes posted was a 79-76 OT win over Michigan State to open the year, but that game was played four and a half months ago, and is nothing but meaningless fodder now. As for their losses, the Dukes dropped games to Southern Miss (242) and when they played a top 100 (82) side in the Sun Belt in Appalachian State, James Madison lost both of those games. The Dukes ran through the Sun Belt Tournament, beating Arkansas State in the final 91-71, but that game was played back on March 11, which means the Dukes haven’t played a second of meaningful hoops in 11 days.

By contrast, the Badgers of Wisconsin last took the court on Sunday in the Big Ten (B1G) championship game in which they fell to Illinois, 93-87. It was a strong showing for the Badgers, who also knocked out #1 seed Purdue in the semifinals and Northwestern in the quarterfinals, both of which are NCAA Tournament teams with Purdue holding a prized #1 while the Wildcats are slotted as a #9. Unlike the Dukes, the Badgers played the second toughest schedule in the nation, which has them battle-tested, while the Dukes are not. Wisconsin has spent its season trading blows with the best teams in college hoops, and their performance has them ranked 17th in the power rankings despite their #5 seeding in the NCAAs.

The Badgers are tailor-made to run away with this game, as they are not conditioned to engage in the Dukes' attempts to run and gun, with Wisky ranking 308th in adjusted tempo. If James Madison is able to hit their threes, of course, they are going to have a chance to win this game, but if they go cold at any point, the Badgers are designed to clean up that mess and make them pay dearly for it both on the boards and on the scoreboard. So many things have to go right for James Madison to compete here, and if the Dukes are able to flip the switch after such a long layoff, so be it, but if they are flat because of the time off, their 30+ win season is going to go up in smoke. Underlay.

Sherwood

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