Posted at 9:30 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle +4 -105 BET365 +4 -110 Sportsinteraction +4 -110   888Sport +4 -110 

Utah State +4 -105 over TCU

Men's Basketball Championship - Midwest Region - 1st Round

Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN

Steaming: TBS

9:55 PM EST. According to many experts, there are a lot of things working in TCU’s favor in this game. We’ve read in more than one place that the Aggies of Utah State got a bad matchup here.  The Horned Frogs play a fast, long, in-your-face defense, as they had a 20.8% turnover % during the season. That’s nice, it really is but what you won’t read in many places is that TCU’s non-conference Strength of Schedule (SOS) ranked 357th in the country out of 362 schools. It is no wonder that the Horned Frogs have some skewed statistics. We have been preaching for years that there is a price to pay for scheduling so many games against cupcakes.

The Horned Frogs lost five of their past eight games heading into the NCAA tournament, including losing to UCF and Baylor at home, then a loss to Houston when TCU mustered only 45 total points. The Frogs turn the ball over too much and rank in the bottom third of Division I in ball security. In conference play, TCU went just 9-9. Indeed the Big-12 is a tougher conference than the Mountain West where the Aggies reside but teams from the Big-12 didn’t have a very good day yesterday. BYU was a 9½-point choice over Duquesne and lost outright. Kansas barely hung on v Samford, Texas Tech got whacked by N.C. State and while the Longhorns won over Colorado State, Texas only scored 56 points and won because Colorado State scored 11 points in the first half. 11!! Colorado State still only lost by 12 but Texas didn’t really win that game as much as the Rams lost it. Incidentally, TCU finished below BYU in the Big-12 standings.

The Aggies won the outright Mountain West regular-season title for the first time. Danny Sprinkle has done a magnificent job of assembling a roster out of nothing and then coaching it up. Utah State is led by Great Osobor, one of the best names and most versatile players in college basketball. Osobor is a 6-8, 255-pound small forward who can play inside and out and shows great versatility. Dude leads the Aggies in scoring, rebounding, offensive rebounding and blocks, while ranking second in steals. He is a physical finisher, playmaker and body-seeking scorer who can carry a team. A playmaker and matchup nightmare in Osobor can cause problems for anyone. Utah State played the 134th ranked non-conference SOS and also played very well in MWC play.

Asking a team like TCU (weak non-conference schedule and a ton of turnovers) to cover a margin is a tall order. TCU has come up short too many times to be trusted spotting points. it's not wise to be a hero with these short-lined, prime-time power conference favorites that “are supposed to win”. Aggies outright but we’ll take the points. 

Sherwood

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