Posted at 8:30 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle -1 -111 BET365 -1 -110 Sportsinteraction -1 -110  888Sport -1 -110 

Michigan State -1 over Mississippi State

Men's Basketball Championship - West Region - 1st Round

Spectrum Center, Charlotte, NC

Streaming: CBS

12:15 PM EST. The first game of the day is an #8 versus #9 matchup in the West Region for the right to play North Carolina in the Round of 32 (as we presume the Tar Heels will get past Wagner), and while a date with a #1 seed might look like a big hill to climb, Carolina might be one of the weakest #1 seeds in recent memory, so the prize for winning this game today could be much worse. That said, recent results are what loom largest here, as the Spartans of Michigan State have been torched for a brutal finish to the season in which they lost five of their last seven games. That stumble dropped Michigan State to a 19-14 record and a #9 seed in the NCAA Tournament, a seed their talent greatly exceeds.

While wins and losses are what matter in the market and to the talking heads, much more goes into analyzing the quality of these programs. The Spartans are analytics darlings, and despite their late-season struggles, they still finished 20th in the power rankings, which puts them alongside #5 seeds like Wisconsin (17), Saint Mary’s (18), San Diego State (19), #3-seeded Kentucky (21), and #4-seeded Kansas (23).

There are a number of teams that are underseeded in this tournament that are obvious, and some of those 20+ win teams we just mentioned would be included there, but the Spartans are not as easy to spot. However, Michigan State was pegged as a top-10 team to start the year, and while it’s easy to hate on the lackluster results, we see a side that is battle-tested and coming into this game feeling incredibly disrespected by the media and the market. The Spartans did, after all, go toe-to-toe with Purdue in the Big 10 Tournament, losing a narrow 67-62 decision. There is no shame in that loss, and the fact that they gave the #1 seeded Boilermakers a scare should serve Sparty well.

By contrast, the Bulldogs of Mississippi State have seen their profile grow exponentially after a solid run in the SEC Tournament in which they walloped Tennessee (73-56) and gave Auburn a hell of a fight in the SEC championship game, losing 73-66. That strong finish to the season put the Bulldogs on the radar, and they are getting too much love in this early game. This is a classic “buy low, sell high” situation, and we get the superior side in Michigan State, whose coach, Tom Izzo, lives in this tournament, at a steep discount. The oddsmakers and the selection committee may believe that the line in quality between these two schools is razor-thin, but that is just not the case. Underlay.

Sherwood

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