Posted at 8:30 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

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Akron +12 over Creighton

Men's Basketball Championship - Midwest Region - 1st Round

PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh, PA

Streaming: TNT

1:30 PM EST. Here is a #3 vs #14 matchup with the Bluejays of Creighton taking on the Zips of Akron, with the Bluejays laying double digits in the first game of the day from Pittsburgh, PA. We’ll start with the Zips, who sport a veteran lineup, many of whom played for Akron the last time they were in the NCAA Tournament two years ago when they gave UCLA, a #4 seed, a real scare, losing to the Bruins as a #14 by just four points (57-53). Four Zips starters were on that team that almost went to the Round of 32 in Enrique Freeman, Ali Ali, Greg Tribble, and Mikal Dawson.

While that low-scoring game from two years ago has no bearing here, we highlight that low total because it is indicative of just how the Zips play. They like to slow it down to a plodding pace, which is conducive to a team covering an inflated double-digit spread, as the fewer possessions there are, the fewer opportunities a three-point shooting team like Creighton is going to have to score. The Zips are battle-tested after playing a tough non-conference schedule that ranked 40th in the nation. They won at South Dakota State by six, lost by just three to Utah State (47) on a neutral court, both of which made the NCAA Tournament. They beat a solid Bradley (58) team by 15, lost by two at UNLV (67), and lost by one on a neutral court to St. Bonaventure (100) while missing Ali Ali in that game, and he is good for 16 points a night.

As for the Bluejays, there are some red flags on their résumé as they were soundly beaten by Colorado State (69-48), UNLV (79-64), Saint John’s (80-66), and UConn (62-48). This is what can happen when a team that shoots a ton of threes goes cold. Furthermore, it’s not like the Bluejays are going to run-and-gun, as they are 208th in the nation in adjusted tempo. The relatively low total posted is indicative of just how slow-paced this game figures to be.

For the Bluejays to cover this inflated number, they are going to have to sizzle from downtown in the limited possessions they are going to have. But that is easier said than done against a Zips defense that allows just 30% of attempts from beyond the arc, which is the 13th best percentage in the nation. Akron is one of the best teams in Division I in defending jump shots, and rarely do they give up an open look. Not only that, but the Zips feature the best rebounder in the nation in Enrique Freeman, who averaged 12.9 boards per game this season while posting 18.6 points per game. There are so many ways the Zips can cash this ticket, and they might just do more than that, as we would not be shocked if they sent Creighton packing here before dinnertime on day one.

Sherwood

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