Posted at 8:30 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle +21½ -106 BET365 +21½ -110 Sportsinteraction +21½ -110  888Sport +21½ -110 

Saint Peter's +21½ over Tennessee

Men's Basketball Championship - Midwest Region - 1st Round

Spectrum Center - Charlotte, NC

Streaming: TNT

9:20 PM EST. The Volunteers of Tennessee were in contention for a #1 seed in The Big Dance, but after a one-and-done in the Southeastern Conference (SEC) Tournament, the Vols were easily bounced from that conversation. Perhaps it was just a bad night at the office for the #6 team in the nation, but that 73-56 loss to Mississippi State did put Tennessee behind the 8-ball in this Midwest region, as they will now have to go through both #3 Creighton and #1 Purdue to get to the Final Four. That is a tough draw that could have been avoided with at least a win or two in that SEC Tournament, which was a league Tennessee won with a 14-4 record. The Vols finished 24-8 overall and by the end of the season, were getting a ton of love from the pundits for being the best team in a loaded conference that features five schools (Tennessee, Kentucky, Auburn, South Carolina, and Alabama) ranked nationally in the Top 25.

We cannot mention the Vols without mentioning their coach, Rick Barnes, who has become the poster boy for unfulfilled expectations in the NCAA Tournament. Barnes has been to 27 NCAA Tournaments with Providence (3), Clemson (3), Texas (16), and Tennessee (5), but his teams have been bounced in the first round 12 times and the second round seven times, with his teams making it out of the first weekend only four times. Those limited extended runs include five trips to the Sweet 16 (1997, 2003, 2004, 2019, 2023), two to the Elite Eight (2006, 2008), and just one Final Four (2003). Over the years, Barnes has had some of the most talented teams in the nation, and for one reason or another, he and they have had trouble getting out of their own way. That’s not to say we expect an upset here on day one, but the Vols are carrying a ton of baggage and if they win today, they’ll draw either Texas (27), who is a borderline Top 25 team, or (the winner of Virginia (69)/Colorado State (38)), both of which it could be argued are grossly under-seeded based on their power rankings, but that’s a write-up for another day.

Enter the Peacocks of Saint Peter’s, winners of the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference, which they notably won as the #5 seed. That fact has been pounded home by the talking heads, but not all mid-major conferences are created equal, and not all conference standings reflect the gap in quality from top to bottom. That was the case in the MAAC, where #1 seeded Quinnipiac ranked 168 in the power rankings, while #5 Saint Peter’s is ranked 187. In between in the standings were #2 Fairfield (166), #3 Marist (209), and #4 Rider (221), and as you can see, all of those schools are pretty closely ranked. The Peacocks might have been a #5 seed in the MAAC, but they are just as good as any team in that conference and they proved it by knocking off Rider, Quinnipiac, and Fairfield on their way to March Madness.

You may recall the Peacocks made a scene in the NCAA Tournament in 2022 when they made a run to the Elite Eight as a #15 seed. That year, St. Peter’s ran through #2 Kentucky, #7 Murray State, and #3 Purdue before falling to #8 North Carolina. With that run, the Peacocks became the first-ever #15 seed to make it to the Elite Eight, and while that does not matter here, we bring it up because the idea of a #15 seed winning their opening game is not a total pipe dream. The lower seeds in this tournament are not the cakewalks they used to be. With the transfer portal and the exposure players can now get by going to smaller schools, the quality at the mid-major level has improved exponentially over the years. Quality players would rather play and start at a smaller school than sit on the bench at a Power Six squad. If you can play, the NBA will find you. Oh, by the way, the Peacocks rank 12th nationally in scoring defense, and they rank 57th in forcing turnovers. Furthermore, 10 times this year, the Peacocks held their opposition to under 60 points.

To close, we must discuss the inflated points the Peacocks are being offered in relation to the relatively low total that has been posted in this game, which at the time of posting is just 130. For the Vols, this is a significant pile of points for them to cover, which is just not conducive when the Total is considered. The Oddsmakers do not expect much action here, all things considered, and there are just so many paths for the Peacocks to cover such a large spread. If Saint Peter’s is hot and the Vols are not, or if both teams are shooting well, or not shooting well, the opportunity for the Peacocks to hang around is going to exist. Even if the Vols are hot and the Peacocks are not, there are just too many points on the table here with the expectation of a low-scoring game to pass up.

Sherwood

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