Posted at 10:30 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

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Colorado -3 over Boise State

Men's Basketball Championship - South Region - First Four

UD Arena Dayton, OH

Streaming: truTV

9:10 PM EST. One of the lasting images from Selection Sunday, a day usually reserved as a celebration for those selected to go to The Big Dance, was the Broncos of Boise State. When selected to head to Dayton for the First Four, they reacted with shock and polite applause. Head coach Leon Rice mouthed “WOW” before whispering to those beside him what he likely truly thought.

By all metrics, Rice and those Boise backers who feel disrespected here have a point. The Broncos finished 22-10 in a loaded Mountain West Conference, which sent six teams to the field of 68. They wrapped up their season ranked 39th in the power rankings. Are the Broncos underseeded here? Undoubtedly, but perhaps they should consult with St. John’s (25), Wake Forest (31), Villanova (35), Cincinnati (37), Pitt (40), Oklahoma (43), or especially another quality mid-major like Indiana State (45), who all were snubbed by the selection committee.

From the lens of disrespect, the Buffaloes of Colorado may have a bigger gripe with the selection committee than Boise State, but you wouldn’t have known it from their reaction to their selection as a play-in #10 seed. The Buffs were regarded as a “bubble” team despite placing 26th in the power rankings, and had they not made a run to the Pac-12 final, there is a good chance they would be among those teams we mentioned above that got the shaft from the selection committee.

That would have been a shame, as the Buffs are loaded with talent while also being very capable on both ends of the court. Colorado is a strong rebounding team, and Eddie Lampkin is a beast on the boards for them, making the Buffs a very dangerous team in transition. Not only that, but when they do take their looks from downtown, Colorado takes high-quality open shots, while also preventing those chances in their own end, ranking in the top 35 nationally in both open three rate and open three rate allowed. That said, the Buffs do not live and die by the three, as they present many different looks on offense from spread formations to pick and rolls and so much more.

Matchup-wise, if the Buffs had to face another quality outfit, they did well to draw Boise State, as the Broncos are weak where Colorado is strong. Boise is a tad undersized upfront, which potentially leaves them vulnerable to the Buffs' tenacious board play. Boise State gives up 1.2 points per shot at the rim while allowing nearly 65% of field goals from the rim and nearly 45% of field goals from the paint, which ranks in the bottom fifth of the nation across the board. The Buffs will run the ball down your throat, and the Broncos are ill-prepared for such an onslaught. Moreover, the Broncs are a terrible transition defense because of their reliance on the offensive glass, but that only works when you are the better rebounding team, which Boise State is not. In Mountain West play, the Broncos allowed nearly 11 fast break points per game, which was the worst in the conference, and they allowed a leaky 1.15 transition points per possession, which is 348th in the nation.

To close, there has to be concern about the Broncos' mindset despite the underlying numbers liking what they do. The analytics are just one part of the equation, but you can never take the human element out of these games, especially at the collegiate level where, at the end of the day, these are just kids. Mindset is everything, but the talking heads are content to push the narrative that the Broncos are too good to be here in this spot and they are, but the Buffs are better. The deflated points the Buffs are being asked to spot here are minuscule.

Sherwood

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