Posted at 10:30 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

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Atlantic 10 Tournament

Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY

Duquesne +126 over VCU

Streaming: CBS

1:00 PM EST. There are a handful of mid-majors with pedigree in the market, and the Rams of VCU are one of them. That’s what happens when a program makes a deep run into the NCAA Tournament, as the Rams did when they made the Final Four in 2011. Since then, the Rams have been a staple in March, making trips to The Big Dance in ‘12, ‘13, ‘14, ‘15, ‘16, ‘17, ‘19, ‘21, and ‘23. Because of that pedigree, there is a premium to be paid on the Rams, who, despite their making this Atlantic 10 (A-10) final, finished the regular season at 11-7 and 22-12 overall, which had them enter this tournament as the #5 seed.

You’d be hard-pressed to find another team to better contrast with VCU, as the Dukes of Duquesne are every bit the Rams' equal and maybe better, but they have no market presence after making their last NCAA Tournament appearance in 1977. The Dukes finished sixth in the A-10 with an 11-7 mark and 23-11 overall. To get here, Duquesne beat #14 Saint Louis (83-73), #3 Dayton (65-57), and #7 St. Bonaventure, while VCU had an easier path, besting #12 Fordham, #4 UMass, and then #9 Saint Joseph’s, who really did the heavy lifting for the Rams after sending #1 seed Richmond home packing in the quarterfinals.

Despite the contrasting reputations in the market, the Rams appear to be spotting a modest pile of points, but that is a big red flag. This is not your typical VCU; rather, they are a middling program in a weak conference. The A-10 is a mess, and the fact this final is between the #5 and #6 seeds is proof of that. Furthermore, the Dukes are just a bad matchup for the Rams, as Duquesne beat them twice this year, including just 12 days ago. The Dukes were a +5-point pooch in that game at VCU, and they won by double digits. When these schools played at Duquesne in January, the Dukes won that game too, 79-70. Today, the 2023-24 Dukes have a chance to do something that nobody at their school has done in 46 years, and that’s going to The Big Dance. That’s precisely how we’re going to play it.

Sherwood

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