Posted at 10:30 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

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American Athletic Conference Tournament

Dickies Arena, Fort Worth, TX

UAB +117 over South Florida

Streaming: ESPN 2

3:00 PM EST. The Bulls of South Florida (USF) are the top seed in this American Athletic Conference (AAC) Tournament, and they got here after a 24-6 season, which saw them play a weak non-conference schedule that ranked just 302-of-362 graded programs in Division I hoops. The Bulls have padded their record with weak wins, including those against South Carolina State (301), Arkansas Pine-Bluff (336), UAlbany (245), Alabama State (315), Temple (197) twice, Rice (232) twice, UT-San Antonio (254) twice, East Carolina (180), and Tulsa (183). To get to this AAC semifinal, the Bulls whacked East Carolina, again, 81-59, as a -7½-point favorite, but USF takes a big step up in competition here, as the AAC is another one of those conferences whose teams are much closer in quality than the seedings might suggest.

The Blazers of UAB come into this contest with a 20-11 record, but they played a much more competitive non-conference schedule (135) than the Bulls and therefore do not have as many wins to show for their effort. That said, UAB played Power Six schools in Clemson and Maryland, and they actually beat the Terrapins, 66-63. The Blazers also hold notable wins over then #20 Florida Atlantic and then #19 Memphis, whom they beat by double digits. In their only meeting with USF this season, UAB won that game, too, 75-71.

The oddsmakers know that there is great parity in the AAC and that fact is reflected in this line, where the Bulls are a small favorite despite their #1 seeding. However, those seedings are only going to influence a market that is coming around to college basketball for the first time and might not know better. The reality is that the Blazers are every bit as good as the Bulls, and you know what? They just might be the superior team. Not all 20+ win seasons are created equal, and the Bulls have been feasting on cupcakes, while the Blazers are battle-tested and very capable of cutting down the nets in the American final tomorrow afternoon.

Sherwood

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