Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle -3 -113 BET365 -3 -110 Sportsinteraction -3 -110 888Sport -3 -110

Kohl Center Madison, WI

Wisconsin -3 over Illinois

Streaming: Big Ten Network (BTN)

1:00 PM EST. Plain and simple, this is a bad matchup for # 13 Illinois, as its defense appears to be broken after a brutal February that saw the Illini finish just 249th in adjusted defensive efficiency. In short, Illinois can’t defend the rim, and it can defend the post, but despite those lapses in quality, Illinois still went 4-2 in February. However, they narrowly edged out Nebraska in overtime (87-84) and beat Maryland by five. The Illini now sit at 21-7 overall and second in the Big Ten (B1G) at 12-5, just two games back of the league leader and #2 ranked Purdue with three games to play.

Meanwhile, the Badgers of Wisconsin are just 2-6 in February, and while that looks bad on paper, five of those games were by two possessions or less with two going to overtime. Furthermore, five of the eight games were also played on the road. The Badgers have lost just two home games this season, and those were to Purdue and Tennessee, both potential number-one seeds. We’ll note that those losses came as the Badgers went cold from three-point land, as they shot just 28% in February from three-point range; however, before that, the Badgers were shooting over 36%.

To close, Wisconsin has lost six straight to Illinois, and the Badgers' seniors have never beaten the Illini. That doesn’t guarantee a win today, but it does highlight just how one-sided this B1G rivalry has been of late, but it does influence an unsuspecting market that values wins over all else. Situationally speaking, this is a tough spot for Illinois, who has #2 Purdue on deck, at home in Champaign on Tuesday night, which creates a potential look-ahead spot and adds a cherry to the top of this sundae.

Sherwood

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