Posted at 2:30 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle  +8 -107  BET365  +8 -110 Sportsinteraction  +8 -110  888Sport +8 -110

Bartow Arena, Birmingham, AL

Wichita State +8 over UAB 

Streaming: ESPN+

8:00 PM EST. The Paul Mills era in Wichita has not been as smooth as both he and the Shockers brass may have liked, as they are just 11-17 overall and tied for dead last in the American Athletic Conference (AAC) at 3-12, tied with UTSA for that dubious designation. It has been challenging to fill the big shoes of Greg Marshall, whose profile still looms large over a program he left amid controversy after a bullying scandal at the end of the 2020-21 season. Isaac Brown took over for Marshall in the aftermath and led a Shockers team that had taken a transfer portal beating to the NCAA Tournament, losing in the First Four in Dayton. Brown would go 32-28 with the Shockers in the next two seasons, but they were not invited to any of the post-season tournaments, which led to Brown's firing at the end of last season.

Next up was Mills, who joined the Shockers after six years as the head coach at Oral Roberts, and 14 years before that as an assistant at Baylor. Mills knew what he was getting himself into at the start of the season, saying, “It’s been done before here. Within the past decade, Wichita State has played in a Final Four. We’re walking into a situation where we’re the beneficiary of a path that’s already been carved.” With that past success comes high expectations, but those have not been fulfilled thus far. However, a closer look shows that the Shockers are not as poor as their record shows, as the bottom of the American is much closer in quality to the top of the conference than many of the other mid-major conferences.

For some backing on that, the Shockers are ranked 167-of-362 graded schools, and while that is not great, they are surrounded by teams with winning records like Lipscomb (18-11) from the A-Sun, Fairfield from the MAAC (18-10), and Hawaii (16-12) from the Big West. In fact, of all the teams ranked between 150-175 in the power rankings, only three teams, Oregon State, Illinois State, and Wichita State have a losing record.

Enter the Blazers of UAB, who are 18-9 and winners of four of their last five and seven of their last 10. The Blazers are 10-4 in the American, but despite their superior record compared to the Shockers, UAB is ranked 125. At the moment, the AAC has just one team ranked in the top-25 (South Florida) despite featuring three 20-win teams. The point is a team like UAB has no business spotting inflated points in this range against a team that is much closer to it in quality than the standings show. That false perception is a market inefficiency that we are going to attempt to take advantage of tonight in a game the Shockers are very capable of winning outright. That said, we’ll gladly scoop up the inflated points on offer here and hope to see you at the cashier’s window.

Sherwood

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